来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF之家） 本周海内外利空共振，促使全球市场波动加剧，我大A也未能幸免，截至周五收盘各大宽基指数全线下跌， 其中小微盘风格重创，北证50、中证2000等多只指数周跌幅超过5%，详细表现如下： 与此同时，市场交投氛围被行情拖累，日均成交额相比上周有所回落，全周成交额9.23万亿、日均成交额约 1.84万亿。如果下周成交额继续下滑，那么可以预见行情短期内重回上升轨道的难度大幅增加。 行业方面，本周申万一级行情全线下跌，亏钱效应拉满。其中，今年主线之一的电力设备本周以-10.54%领跌 众行业，此外，基础化工、零售、钢铁等跌幅均超过了5%，而银行成为本周最抗跌板块，详细数据如下： | 基金代码 | 基金筒称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 场内份额(亿份) | 份额变化(亿份) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 513180. SH | 恒生科技指数ETF | -6.74 | 630. 91 | 40. 98 | | 513330. SH | 恒生互联网ETF | -5. 85 | 667.03 | 40. 68 | | 513130. SH | 恒生科技ETF ...

高盛合伙人、高盛跟踪对冲基金部门的全球负责人Tony Pasquariello认为，美国股市已出现多头"缴 械"迹象，市场似乎正进入人工智能（AI）周期的新阶段，投资者开始对超大规模云服务商的资本支出 和未来回报的可持续性持怀疑态度。 尽管如此，Pasquariello仍维持美股主要上升趋势完好的判断，预计标普500指数将在2025年底收于当前 水平之上，但下调了对来年股市表现的预期。 本周四美股盘中大跳水，标普500指数早盘刷新日高时日内涨逾1.9%，最终收跌近1.6%，市值较当天日 内高点蒸发超2万亿美元，数月来首次收于100日移动均线下方。尽管英伟达周三盘后公布亮眼业绩，但 未能缓解市场对高估值的担忧。标普500进入11月以来已累计跌约4%，势将创2008年来最差11月表现。 Pasquariello在本周五给客户的报告中指出，虽然更低的价格可能引发系统性和主动交易者的更多抛售， 且10月的"派对后遗症"或尚未完全消退，但他的直觉是本周市场经历了显著的风险转移，并出现了一些 投降迹象。 不过，美联储"三把手"、任内永久拥有FOMC会议投票权的纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五释放了鸽派信 号。他表示，随着劳动力市 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程市场策略报告 金融工程市场策略报告 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 18 日 分析师：徐忠亚 执业证书号：S1230523050001 xuzhongya@stocke.com.cn 物价回归，决战 2026 ——金融工程 2026 年度策略 核心观点 经济复苏、物价回归或将成为中国经济贯穿全年的核心叙事，看好 A 股进一步走强， 结构上先景气后质量，先周期后消费。此外，量化资金推动下，微盘股牛市或远未结 束。 ❑ 中国经济有望由筑底后期逐步转向复苏期，核心在于需求侧的三大超预期：美国 财政扩张超预期、出口上行超预期、地产供需格局改善带动内需修复超预期。 从宏观周期模型上看，目前我国经济处于筑底后期，且信用周期已经确认企稳， 有望逐步迈入复苏周期。我们判断，2026 年有望出现需求侧的三大超预期，助力 中国经济走向复苏： 1、美国财政扩张超预期：根据 CRFB 预测，在考虑关税收入影响后，美国政府 2026 财年赤字率将达 5.9%。不过，关税收入面临较大不确定性，无论是法律挑 战，还是特朗普反复提及的"关税分红" ，都可能对关税收入造成重大影响。若假 设关税收入清零，则美国赤字率 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience with a low - open and high - close trend, while the bond market still has positive factors. November is a period of oscillatory digestion for the stock market, and there may be opportunities for re - layout after December. The bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views (1) Stock Index Futures - The market opened low and closed high, showing resilience. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between current and next - month contracts also had changes. Total positions increased. Micro - cap + dividend styles were dominant. November is an oscillatory digestion period, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend in the short term [7]. (2) Stock Index Options - During the rebound, there were style differences. The trading volume of the options market increased by 2.78% compared with the previous day, and the 50ETF skewness index reached around 120. It is recommended to view it as an oscillatory market and choose to sell call options for hedging defense [2][7]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - Long - term bond yields showed a V - shape. Most treasury bond futures contracts declined, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts down 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank's operations had a short - term negative impact on the bond market, but the fundamental environment is still favorable, and the bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Different trading strategies are recommended [3][8][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - The October SPGI manufacturing PMI in China was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9. The October ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5. The October ADP employment change in the US was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million. Upcoming data include China's October trade balance in US dollars and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Starting from November 10, 2025, at 13:01, China will stop implementing the additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods and continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year, retaining the 10% rate. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [10][11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the market reached a new high, the STAR 50 index experienced a decline with increased trading volume, and the behaviors of different types of funds began to diverge significantly. There are disagreements on technology and the entry of incremental funds. It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio and control the absolute position. Bonds can be used as a hedge against stock risks, and sectors weakly related to technology and previously underperforming should be added to the portfolio [5][8] - The market has already priced in the previous positive news in advance. Although there were no real negative factors this week, only positive news was realized, the market failed to rise. The TMT sector has shown a narrowing trend, with only storage, PCB, and semiconductor materials having excess returns in October [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Asset Price Performance - **Large - scale Asset Performance**: Overseas stocks were strong while bonds were weak, Chinese bonds strengthened, the US dollar appreciated, and precious metal prices declined. The yields of overseas bonds rose due to the decline in interest - rate cut expectations, while the yields of Chinese government bonds decreased. Commodity prices were differentiated, with precious metals falling and natural gas and soybeans rising. The US dollar index increased, but the RMB and Hong Kong dollar appreciated against the US dollar. In the domestic stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.5%, and the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.2% [12][15] - **A - share Market Performance**: This week, small - and medium - cap stocks led the gains, while the STAR 50 index underperformed. The trading volume of the A - share market increased, with most indices' average daily trading volume returning to the level of late September. The sectors of power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and computers led the gains, while sectors such as banks, beauty care, and real estate led the losses. In the TMT sector, only storage, PCB, and semiconductor materials had excess returns in October [17][23][27] Capital Behavior Tracking - **Leveraged Funds**: The proportion of margin trading and short - selling turnover in A - share turnover rebounded slightly this week. On Friday, a large amount of funds flowed into large - cap ETFs. Stocks with a market capitalization of over 50 billion yuan were de - leveraged, while stocks with a market capitalization of less than 50 billion yuan were generally leveraged. Sectors such as banks, home appliances, automobiles, steel, and pharmaceuticals were leveraged, while sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal were significantly de - leveraged. Popular stocks in the electronics and communication sectors were leveraged [39][42][46] - **Quantitative Funds**: The excess returns of quantitative funds turned negative this week. The basis discount of stock index futures narrowed but remained at a relatively high level since July [64][68] - **Main Funds**: Main funds flowed out significantly from the STAR Market this week, mainly from the electronics and communication sectors, and flowed into the banking sector [71][76] - **North - bound Funds**: The total trading volume of north - bound funds rebounded this week, but the proportion decreased. The performance of their heavy - holding stocks was poor [78][82] - **South - bound Funds**: The trading volume of south - bound funds rebounded this week, but the proportion decreased. The net buying amount increased. South - bound funds flowed into the banking sector significantly and flowed out of the pharmaceutical and biological sector [84][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the trend of strong stocks and weak bonds continued, with increased differentiation in the stock market. The trading volume of the stock market increased overall, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, while micro - cap stocks continued to decline with reduced volume. The technology sector remained the main theme, and the leading sectors were either previously strong or previously stagnant, possibly due to the phased game of existing funds. New marginal pricing forces have joined the market, and the preference of existing funds has changed [5]. - Leveraged funds continue to contribute incremental strength, with their industry distribution becoming more "even" and popular stocks experiencing "de - crowding". Quant funds are no longer the marginal pricing force driving the rise of micro - cap stocks. Domestic funds are shifting from popular to unpopular sectors, while foreign funds are showing an obvious inflow trend. Bank wealth management is accelerating the market through "fixed - income +" products. The investment preferences of insurance and foreign funds are changing [5][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Asset Price Performance 3.1.1. Major Asset Classes - Global stock markets in most countries rose to varying degrees this week, with the US NASDAQ leading the gains. Commodity prices were differentiated, with precious metals rising and non - ferrous metals and crude oil falling. The US dollar index remained basically unchanged, while the exchange rates of the RMB, Hong Kong dollar, and New Taiwan dollar continued to strengthen. Bonds were relatively weak, with the yields of Chinese, US, and Japanese government bonds rising to varying degrees. Chinese assets performed strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.6% this week, and the RMB and Hong Kong dollar exchange rates strengthening since the end of July and early August respectively [14]. 3.1.2. A - share Market - The ChiNext (2.3%) led the gains among broad - based indices, followed by the STAR 50 (1.8%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (1.1%). The micro - cap stocks led the decline. The trading volume of micro - cap stocks decreased, and their trading volume has dropped by 31% from the August high. Medium - cap stocks continued to outperform large - cap and small - cap stocks, as indicated by the decline in the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio and the continuous increase in the CSI 500/CSI 1000 ratio [16][20][25]. - The top five sectors in terms of gains were automobiles (3.6%), electronics (3.4%), power equipment (3.3%), household appliances (2.3%), and machinery (2.2%). Except for electronics and power equipment, the leading sectors were previously stagnant [28]. Capital Behavior Tracking 3.2.1. Index Trends and Capital Preferences - Recently, the ChiNext, STAR 50, and CSI 300 have continued to reach new highs, while previously it was micro - cap stocks and dividend (bank) stocks. The change in index trends indicates that the investment preferences and dominant capital have changed [35]. 3.2.2. Leveraged Funds - The proportion of margin trading volume in A - share trading volume continued to rise this week, reaching a new high since 2023. Leveraged funds are flowing into industries that were previously net - sold or had low net - buying volumes in margin trading, and where the proportion of margin trading balances to market capitalization is low, such as transportation, food and beverage, banks, household appliances, and petroleum and petrochemicals. Popular stocks have shown "de - crowding", with the proportion of leveraged funds in popular stocks dropping from a high of 5.75% at the end of August to 1.86%. The net margin buying of the ChiNext and STAR 50 has significantly decreased, while that of the CSI 1000 and SSE 50 has increased significantly [37][41][44]. 3.2.3. Quant Funds - Since late August, the excess return of quant index - enhanced funds has significantly decreased, turning from positive to negative, which is almost simultaneous with the peak and decline of micro - cap stocks. The basis of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures has widened, indicating an increase in the hedging and risk - aversion needs of quant funds [50][51][56]. 3.2.4. Main Funds - The main funds of the CSI 300 have had continuous net outflows for five days. In the past week, main funds have almost withdrawn from all industries, with significant outflows from sectors such as computers, electronics, power equipment, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals, and inflows into sectors such as real estate, textile and apparel, and steel on the last two trading days [59][64]. 3.2.5. North - bound Funds - The total trading volume of north - bound funds increased significantly on Thursday and Friday this week, accounting for a new high of 13.9% of A - share trading volume on Friday. After the increase in north - bound trading volume on Thursday, the SSE 50 Connect rebounded, and the average increase of heavy - position stocks of north - bound funds on Friday was higher than the weekly median [66][70]. 3.2.6. Wealth Management Fund Transfer - From January to August this year, the new non - bank deposits reached approximately 6.4 trillion yuan, with about 3 trillion yuan added in July and August. The proportion of non - bank deposits in M2 has increased, in contrast to the decline in the proportion of storage - type institutions [75]. 3.2.7. Hong Kong Stock Market - Since August, the net buying and trading volume of south - bound funds flowing into the Hong Kong stock market have increased. In the past two weeks, the total trading volume of south - bound funds and their proportion in the Hong Kong stock market turnover have rebounded. The net buying volume of south - bound funds has decreased slightly compared to last week but remains at a relatively high level. South - bound funds mainly flow into sectors such as commerce and retail, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology. In the past week, the communication sector has changed from net outflows to net inflows [84][85].

Group 1 - The total trading amount for Shanghai Stock Connect today was 131.299 billion, while Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 156.427 billion [1] - The top traded stocks in Shanghai Stock Connect included Industrial Fulian, Haiguang Information, and Cambrian, while in Shenzhen Stock Connect, the leaders were CATL, Shenghong Technology, and Dongfang Fortune [1] Group 2 - Sectors showing strong performance included photolithography machines, wind power, and robotics, while precious metals, tourism, and pork sectors experienced declines [2] Group 3 - The top five sectors with net inflows of main funds included the new energy sector with 2.788 billion, diversified finance with 1.143 billion, and power equipment with 0.961 billion [3] - The sectors with the highest net outflows were non-bank financials at -5.244 billion, securities at -5.080 billion, and computers at -5.071 billion [3][4] Group 4 - The top ten stocks with net inflows were concentrated in the chip and battery sectors, with SMIC leading the inflow [4] - The top ten stocks with net outflows were more diverse, with CITIC Securities experiencing the largest outflow [4] Group 5 - The top ten ETFs by trading amount included Hong Kong Securities ETF at 15.6121 billion, Hang Seng Technology ETF at 8.6137 billion, and Hang Seng Internet ETF at 8.3361 billion, with significant percentage increases compared to the previous trading day [6] Group 6 - The four major index futures contracts saw both long and short positions decrease, with the IM contract showing a notable reduction in short positions by nearly 2000 contracts [7] Group 7 - Institutional activity was noted in stocks like Haoen Qidian with a 14.22% increase and 110 million bought by two institutions, while Tianji shares saw a 6.26% decrease with 113 million sold by four institutions [8][9] Group 8 - Retail investors showed high activity, particularly in low-priced stocks and solid-state battery sectors, with notable purchases in stocks like Zhongliang Capital and Jin Cai Hulin [10]

Report Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is "shockingly bullish," for stock index options is "shockingly," and for Treasury bond futures is "shockingly bearish" [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are moving upward due to inertia, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the gains. A-shares are deviating from the trend of the Asia-Pacific stock market, and the CSI 2000 has underperformed the CSI 1000 in the past two weeks. The turnover rate of the Wind All A Index is approaching a relatively high level, and it may be better to shift to small and micro-cap stocks in September [7]. - The optimism in the stock index options market is waning, with trading volume and implied volatility both dropping. The market sentiment remains positive, but the trading pace has slowed down. It is advisable to set appropriate stop-profit and stop-loss points and re-anchor trading levels [8]. - The performance of the Treasury bond futures market depends on the stock market. Although the stock market was strong yesterday, the bond market also showed an upward trend, and the bullish sentiment may have recovered. The market is concerned about a potential short-term adjustment in the stock market, which could boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The bond market should be approached with caution [3][9]. Summary by Directory Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of the current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at -13.11, -1.60, -95.49, and -120.55 points respectively, with a month-on-month change of -22.55, -5.13, -48.35, and -48.47 points. The spreads between the current and next-month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 7.6, 1.6, 51.6, and 66.4 points respectively, with a month-on-month change of 2.2, -1.6, 3.0, and 4.8 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by -16713, -11062, -12442, and -12786 lots respectively [7]. - The market moved upward due to inertia yesterday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the gains. Metal materials, electronics, and healthcare sectors had significant increases, while the large financial sector was relatively weak. A-shares are deviating from the Asia-Pacific stock market, and the CSI 2000 has underperformed the CSI 1000 in the past two weeks. The turnover rate of the Wind All A Index is approaching a relatively high level, and it may be better to shift to small and micro-cap stocks in September. It is recommended to hold IM [7]. Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety decreased by 33.31%, and the liquidity of all varieties declined consistently. The implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 2.55%. It is speculated that the decline in volatility is mainly due to the closing of long option positions, rather than the suppression of short option positions. The average position PCR increased by 1.08%, indicating that the sentiment remains positive, but the trading pace has slowed down. It is advisable to set appropriate stop-profit and stop-loss points and re-anchor trading levels. A small amount of covered call strategy is recommended [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volumes of the next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 84189, 60563, 25178, and 121725 lots respectively, with a one-day change of 10472, 4284, -8257, and -19489 lots. The positions were 185116, 113156, 67204, and 125481 lots respectively, with a one-day change of 7482, -145, 605, and 4819 lots. The spreads between the current and next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.300, 0.105, -0.080, and 0.410 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of 0.060, -0.045, -0.010, and -0.100 yuan. The spreads between TF*2-T, TS*2-TF, TS*4-T, and T*3-TL of the next-quarter contracts were 103.190, 99.277, 301.744, and 207.090 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of -0.030, -0.044, -0.118, and 0.210 yuan. The basis of the next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.340, 0.021, -0.048, and 0.549 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of -0.109, -0.032, -0.009, and -0.178 yuan. The central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.30% respectively. The T main contract opened lower in the morning but then rebounded quickly and showed an upward trend throughout the day. The PMI data in August showed a slight increase, and the equity market continued to be strong yesterday. The bond market sentiment was weak in the morning, but the stock-bond seesaw effect weakened during the day. The bond market also showed an upward trend, and the bullish sentiment may have recovered. The market is concerned about a potential short-term adjustment in the stock market, which could boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Although the central bank net withdrew 105.7 billion yuan from the open market on the first day of September, the liquidity in the money market was relatively loose, and the money market rates declined. DR001 and DR007 dropped to 1.31% and 1.45% respectively. In the future, although the stock-bond seesaw effect was not obvious yesterday, it is still necessary to closely monitor the performance of the stock market and the risk appetite. The bond market should be approached with caution. Trend strategy: Be cautiously bullish. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to long-end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: Appropriate attention can be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [3][9]. Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes the eurozone's unemployment rate, CPI, core CPI, PPI, the US ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, and new ADP employment [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - From July 1 to August 31, the national railway carried a total of 943 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the national railway carried a total of 702 million tons of goods, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Both passenger and freight volumes reached record highs for the same period [11]. - At the end of the SCO Tianjin Summit on September 1, 2025, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, introduced the eight achievements of the summit, including formulating a 10-year development strategy for the SCO, making a political decision to establish the SCO Development Bank, and setting up six practical cooperation platforms [11]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report also includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures, but the specific data is not provided in the text [12][16][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent downturn in the A-share market, particularly affecting small-cap stocks, with the CSI 2000 index dropping by 2.32% and the Wind micro-cap index declining nearly 4% as of August 27 [1] - Small-cap stocks had previously experienced significant gains, with some quantitative private equity strategies achieving over 100% returns since the beginning of 2024 [1][2] - The rise in small-cap stocks is attributed to several factors, including a recovery from previous valuation compressions, strong support from the technology growth sector, and favorable industrial policies [1][2] Group 2 - The current strength of small-cap stocks is primarily driven by quantitative funds, which have a high concentration in these stocks, and the increasing margin financing focused on sectors like AI and robotics [2] - The trading congestion in small-cap stocks is noted to be high, approaching levels seen during previous market peaks, although it has not yet reached historical extremes [2][3] - Private equity firms are adopting various strategies to manage the high trading congestion, including actively adjusting their portfolios to capture market opportunities while avoiding excessive exposure to single strategies [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong and A-share markets, driven by significant capital inflows and favorable market conditions [1][2][3]. - In the Hong Kong market, major tech stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi saw a net inflow of over 23 billion, indicating a solid capital base [1]. - The A-share market experienced a record trading volume of approximately 3.2 trillion, ranking as the second highest in history, reflecting increased investor activity [4][5]. Group 2 - The term "fast" refers to the rapid breakthrough of key index levels, with the Wind All A index surpassing 6000 points to 6100 points in just one trading day [7][8]. - The term "fierce" indicates a significant increase in financing balance, with net purchases exceeding 90 billion, marking a substantial acceleration in market activity [11]. - A new policy in Shanghai to relax housing purchase restrictions in areas outside the outer ring is expected to impact the real estate market and broader asset classes [14][17]. Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of the A500 and CSI 300 indices, which have surpassed their previous highs, indicating a recovery for investors who bought into broad-based ETFs [18][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of quality equity investments in the current market environment, suggesting a favorable outlook for long-term investors [22][23]. - The bond market is also highlighted, with a notable decline in 30-year government bond yields, indicating a bullish trend in both stocks and bonds [26][28]. Group 4 - The article mentions the expansion of the Sci-Tech bond market, with a significant issuance scale of approximately 600 billion in the first half of the year, supporting the technology sector's growth [28][30]. - Recent developments in Sci-Tech bond ETFs, including their inclusion in the pledge financing system, are expected to attract more institutional investment [31][36]. - The article suggests that the Sci-Tech bond ETFs will benefit from strong liquidity and low management fees, making them an attractive option for investors [38].