史诗级15连阳之后，市场走到了一个微妙关口！朋友们，我是帮主郑重。所有人都知道调整随时会来， 但所有人也都相信，场外虎视眈眈的资金会让下跌空间有限。一根中阴线，究竟是风险，还是机会？ 眼下就像一场击鼓传花的游戏。资金刻意压着券商这个"定盘星"，然后疯狂在商业航天、脑机接口这些 前期热点里轮动。这造成了两个结果：一是行情看起来很热，但指数滞涨；二是给了量化资金完美 的"收割"温床。请问你：你是在享受题材狂欢，还是已经开始感到焦虑，怕接到最后一棒？ 我的核心观点是：这种靠老热点内卷的行情，已经进入瓶颈。市场急需一个新板块来 "破局"——它必 须能分流资金、带动人气，还不会引发指数大跌。 历史经验给出了一个可能的答案：北交所。每一轮行情末期，北交所个股常有亮眼表现，它盘子小、人 气旺，或将成为激活市场的关键钥匙。 策略因此非常清晰： 第一， 对于主板：阳线越多，越要谨慎。严控仓位，绝不追高老热点，等待一次像样的调整。 第二， 关注"破局者"：将目光投向北交所，寻找其中符合新兴产业方向、有业绩支撑的个股，进行小 仓位试盘，静候风来。 记住，涨跌轮回是永恒法则，在别人狂欢时寻找下一站，才是超额收益的来源。 ...

年初一只南美洲的"黑天鹅"轻轻振翅，就足以让市场泛起涟漪； 站在2026年的开端，许多人或许都在思考同一个问题：新的一年，手里的钱该往何处安放？ 但投资理财的世界，偏偏又容易让人心生迷茫。 而眼前的景象更显复杂，一边是定期存款利率悄然步入"1"字头，另一边是上证指数却度站上4000点关口。 这一低一高之间，迟疑与观望似乎成了自然的反应。 但如果我们把目光拉长，穿越短期的迷雾，回归到几个确定的逻辑上来，答案便会清晰许多。 2026年，我们比以往任何时候都更需要认真考虑，将公募基金纳入个人的财富规划。 理由一：站在新周期的刻度上，以史为鉴，此刻行动意义非凡 2026年的第一个命题，是与崭新的长期周期相遇。 "十五五"规划开启的不仅仅是一个政策周期，更是一个面向未来的经济与社会发展蓝图。它意味着,新的机遇、新的产业方向和新的市场逻辑正在孕育。 来源：中航证券 回望过往几轮五年规划周期，在规划《纲要》发布后的3个月至1年内，无论是锚定市场整体水位的万得全A，还是聚焦各大细分方向的风格指数，最终均 收获了正收益。 | | T-2M~T-1M | T-1M~T-1W | T-1W~T | T~T+1W | T+1W~T+ ...

2025年最后一个交易日，A股以一场史诗级红盘强势收官——上证指数收于 3968.84点，全年大涨 18.41%，并于10月28日历史性突破 4000点大关，创下近18 年收盘新高；更令人震撼的是，沪指实现 11连阳，为2006年以来首次，刷新年内最长连涨纪录。创业板指更是狂飙 49.57%，深成指、科创50、北证50全线 大涨，全年总市值飙升至 109万亿元，新增近23万亿，成交额突破 400万亿元，日均1.61万亿，市场热度空前。 然而，在这波澜壮阔的"指数牛市"背后，却是极致的结构性分化。全年 超4000只个股上涨，上纬新材暴涨 1821%、天普股份涨 1662%，商业航天、CPO算 力、人形机器人等科技主线牛股频出；但与此同时，仍有 314只个股跌超20%，部分投资者全程踏空，直呼"满屏红字，账户绿油油"。 原因在于：热点轮动快如闪电——六氟磷酸锂、固态电池等题材行情仅维持1-3个月，若未精准踩中科技与高端制造主线，即便身处牛市也难有斩获。量化 资金主导下，短线波动加剧，"追高即套、割肉就涨"成为散户常态。 尽管基民普遍盈利，机构高呼"慢牛已至"，但市场清醒者亦警示：商业航天板块平均市盈率已达 67倍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, both the US and Chinese stock markets performed well, with the US three major stock indices rising over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.9%. The growth is due to the resonance of the global technology sector and year - end pre - positioning [4]. - Market risk preference is on the rise. Since mid - December, the S&P 500 volatility has generally declined, and the basis discount of stock index futures has narrowed since December [4]. - Leverage funds' activity significantly increased this week, becoming a major driving factor for the market. The proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rebounded, and leverage funds flowed into major broad - based indices [5]. - In 2026, the incremental funds flowing into the stock market are estimated to be 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of "fixed income +" products will double. If the market adjusts in December, incremental funds may pre - position. Next year, technology will still be the most promising direction for the spring rally [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Performance 3.1.1 Global Asset Performance - Global stocks: Most global stock indices rose, with the Korean Composite Index rising 2.7% and the Nikkei 225 rising 2.5%. The French CAC40 and the British FTSE 100 declined [12]. - Global bonds: US Treasury yields declined, while Japanese and Chinese government bond yields rose [12]. - Global commodities: Precious metals performed well, with COMEX silver rising 18.2% and lithium carbonate rising 16.5%. The US dollar index declined [12]. 3.1.2 A - share Market Performance - Broad - based indices: A - shares generally rose, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices rising 3.9% and 2.8% respectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 also had significant gains [21][23]. - Trading volume: Except for the dividend index, the average daily trading volume of broad - based indices increased, returning to the level around mid - August [25]. - Industry performance: The top five rising industries were non - ferrous metals (8.47%), national defense and military industry (7.51%), power equipment (6.27%), machinery and equipment (5.74%), and basic chemicals (5.70%). Most cyclical sectors performed well, except for banks and coal [31]. - Technology sector: Since December, optical modules and optical communications have led the way, and on Monday, most technology sub - sectors rose and many had increased trading volume [35][39]. 3.2 Capital Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Leverage Funds - Margin trading turnover ratio: The proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rose from 10.24% to 11.20%. The margin trading balance increased to about 2.53 trillion yuan, and the ratio of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization slightly decreased [49]. - Inflow into broad - based indices: From Monday to Thursday, leverage funds flowed into major broad - based indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 300 having daily net inflows of over 2.5 billion yuan. Most broad - based ETFs had net outflows on Monday - Thursday, and on Friday, most broad - based indices had inflows except for the Shanghai Composite Index ETF and ChiNext Index ETF [54]. - Market - cap gradient: Stocks of all market - cap gradients increased leverage, with large - cap stocks above 50 billion yuan having a larger increase. Stocks like Zhongji Innolight, Industrial Fulin, Cambricon, and Zijin Mining had large net margin purchases [58]. - Industry perspective: Industries with large margin net purchases as a proportion of turnover included communications, real estate, machinery and equipment, etc. The national defense and military industry increased leverage for six consecutive weeks, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased leverage for nine consecutive weeks [62]. - Hot stocks: Some hot stocks in the national defense and military industry and electronics added leverage. Stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhongji Innolight, and others had a margin net purchase as a proportion of turnover exceeding 10% [70]. 3.2.2 Quantitative Funds - Excess return: Since December, the median excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index - enhanced strategies have been - 1.15% and 0.61% respectively [72]. - Futures basis: This week, the near - month stock index futures basis changed from premium to discount, and the far - month contract basis discount narrowed. Excluding the futures delivery week, the basis discount has been narrowing since December [78]. 3.2.3 Main Force Funds - Sector net flows: The main force funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext continued to have net outflows, but the outflows slowed down. The main force funds in the STAR Market had net outflows for five consecutive trading days, accelerating compared to last week [80]. - Industry flows: Main force funds flowed into the power equipment industry and out of industries such as national defense and military industry, computers, electronics, and non - bank finance [88]. 3.2.4 Northbound Funds - Trading volume and proportion: The total trading volume of northbound funds decreased, with the average daily trading volume dropping from 203 billion yuan to 176.6 billion yuan, and the proportion in A - share trading volume dropping from 11.52% to 9.29% [92]. - Performance of heavy - holding stocks: The heavy - holding stocks of the Northbound Connect changed from rising to falling, and the Northbound Connect 50 index underperformed the CSI 300 [94]. 3.2.5 Southbound Funds - Trading volume and net purchases: The average daily trading volume of southbound funds decreased from 144.2 billion yuan to 110.2 billion yuan, and the proportion increased from 52.3% to 58.9%. The average daily net purchase amount decreased from 2.9 billion yuan to 0.8 billion yuan [99]. - Industry allocation: Southbound funds still had a balanced allocation, flowing into industries such as media, electronics, and non - bank finance, and flowing out of industries such as communications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and non - ferrous metals [102].

作者：财富情报局水寒 12月20日，以"破局·重构"为主题的雪球嘉年华在上海举行，盛麒资产首席投资官曾文凯结合自己的投 资策略对2026年A股市场机会点进行了展望。 曾文凯建议，可以在低估值的港股中去寻找合适的投资机会。数据显示，今年南下资金已经过万亿，究 其原因就在于，由于内地资金无法向海外市场自由流动，港股便成为海量内地资金寻找出口的一个重要 方向。 对于量化资金的快速发展以及其对中国资本市场的影响，曾文凯坦言，他并不反对量化资金的存在，因 为量化资金也为中国股市提供了市场流动性。同时，盛麒资产主要投资标的集中于沪深300，而量化资 金则更多聚焦于中证500、1000等小微市值股票，彼此影响不大，"没必要禁止（量化），大家各赚各的 钱。" 同时，曾文凯对美联储降息对市场的影响也表达了自己的看法。他认为，美联储降息对美股、港股正面 影响更明显，对A股影响并不大，这是因为，A股主要是炒概念，加息降息影响并不明显。 最后，对于2026年市场展望，曾文凯表示，2026年应降低预期、谨慎乐观。因为今年各行业股票涨幅已 较大，降低预期可避免受到伤害，若上涨则是意外之喜。 曾文凯认为，做投资应该在自己的能力范围内做，尽 ...

又到周五，又是普涨，看起来是比较好的结果，但我发现，情况并不是大家想的这样，本周应该是消费为主题，商业航天的传导并不是往科技方向走，而是 消费，加上科技今年涨了这么多，说不定明年的大主题又回到消费，可这个消息与传统的白酒、医药老登题材也不一样，依旧是小登定义的，比如商业航 天，你能想到是往消费方向靠吗？因为本周消费走强，成交量并没有放大，谁成了代价？我认为是科技，那怕CPO已经回到新高附近，但其它赛道完全无法 带起来，这也是本周沪指基本没动，但创业板还是下跌的原因。12月下旬是资金最紧张的周期，我觉得本周的规律下周依然适用，即从一周角度看，大部分 板块都是维持横盘为主，有涨起来的就会有跌下去的做对冲，或者从更镇定的月线级别看，可能11-12月本身就是一个休整，大家别被这种涨一天跌一天的 节奏带坏了，或者这也是量化资金存在的意义：主力明显已经在11月就跑了，但市场依然可以维持一个弱平衡，甚至到了市场冰点指数也没有大幅回落，是 不是很抽象？所以嘛，什么叫耐心资本？躺平了不动了就是耐心资本了吧？故，本周强调的多看海外或商品，其实是没有错的，因为没有人愿意静下来等方 向！ 中线策略分析：【整体情况】 今天市场看起来普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects shows significant activity, with notable stocks and sectors experiencing varying levels of capital inflow and outflow, indicating potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: Trading Volume - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 83.656 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 103.653 billion [1]. - The top traded stocks on the Shanghai Stock Connect included Industrial Fulian (19.44 billion), Kweichow Moutai (10.55 billion), and Luoyang Molybdenum (10.48 billion) [2]. - On the Shenzhen Stock Connect, the leading stocks were Xinyi Semiconductor (35.33 billion), Zhongji Xuchuang (34.01 billion), and Panghong Technology (21.77 billion) [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Sectors with the highest capital inflow included cultivated diamonds, coal, and wind power equipment, while sectors such as AI applications and lithium mining saw the largest declines [4]. - The optical and optoelectronic sector led in net capital inflow with 14.32 billion, followed by small household appliances (5.97 billion) and industrial metals (4.63 billion) [5]. - The computer sector experienced the highest net capital outflow at -112.12 billion, followed by electronics at -91.84 billion and the new energy sector at -70.77 billion [6]. Group 3: Individual Stock Capital Flow - The top stocks with net capital inflow included N China Platinum (36.82 billion), Tianxue Communication (13.56 billion), and Jingyue Wan A (10.81 billion) [7]. - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net capital outflow were ZTE Corporation (-21.42 billion), Pingtan Development (-17.98 billion), and Zhongji Xuchuang (-14.79 billion) [8]. Group 4: ETF Trading - The top ten ETFs by trading amount included A500 ETF Fund (6.2678 billion), Hong Kong Securities ETF (5.3725 billion), and A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan (4.6938 billion) [9]. - The ETFs with the highest growth in trading amount compared to the previous trading day were Nasdaq ETF (9.2893 billion, +288.81%) and Growth Enterprise Board ETF (2.5507 billion, +127.05%) [10]. Group 5: Futures Positioning - In the four major futures contracts (IH, IF, IC, IM), both long and short positions increased, with the IM contract seeing a significant increase in long positions [11]. Group 6: Institutional Activity - Institutional activity was notable, with Sifangda seeing a 15.37% increase and receiving 56.74 million from institutions, while Pingtan Development faced a sell-off of 105 million [12][13]. - The trading activity of retail investors was also high, with significant purchases in Tongyu Communication and Aerospace Development [15].

Market Overview - Global markets experienced increased volatility due to a combination of domestic and international negative factors, leading to declines across major indices, with small-cap indices like the North Securities 50 and CSI 2000 dropping over 5% for the week [1][4] - The average daily trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, totaling 9.23 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of approximately 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating potential challenges for a short-term market recovery [4] Sector Performance - The Shenwan first-level industry indices all fell, with the power equipment sector leading the decline at -10.54%, while basic chemicals, retail, and steel sectors also saw declines exceeding 5% [4] - The banking sector was the most resilient, showing the least decline among various sectors [4] Global Market Trends - Internationally, markets such as the KOSPI 200, Nikkei 255, and NASDAQ 100 also faced significant declines, with weekly drops of 4.09%, 3.47%, and 3.07% respectively, marking their worst performances in recent times [7] - The downturn was attributed to hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which reduced December rate cut expectations from 50% to 30%-40%, tightening risk appetite and impacting risk assets like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which fell over 10% [7] ETF Market Activity - Contrasting the overall market trend, the ETF market saw a net inflow of over 86.1 billion yuan for the week, with stock ETFs being the primary focus, attracting approximately 58.2 billion yuan [7][8] - The total ETF shares reached 30,672.98 billion, an increase of 51.55 billion shares from the previous week, indicating a strong interest in ETFs despite broader market declines [8] Notable ETF Performance - Among the ETFs, several tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Internet Index saw significant inflows, with four ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index collectively gaining over 11 billion shares [8] - Only two out of 1,258 stock ETFs managed to close in the green, both tracking foreign indices, highlighting the challenging environment for domestic ETFs [9] Technical Analysis and Outlook - Major indices have broken below key support levels, indicating a bearish market sentiment, with the potential for further declines if trading volumes and margin financing continue to decrease [7][10] - Despite the recent downturn, there is a suggestion of strong support within the 3,800-point range for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a possible base for future upward movement [10]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs partner Tony Pasquariello indicates signs of a bullish "surrender" in the U.S. stock market, suggesting a new phase in the AI cycle, with skepticism about the sustainability of capital expenditures and future returns from large cloud service providers [1][3] - Despite a recent drop in the S&P 500 index, which fell nearly 1.6% and lost over $2 trillion in market capitalization, Pasquariello maintains a positive long-term outlook, expecting the index to close above current levels by the end of 2025, although he has lowered expectations for next year's performance [1][7] - The S&P 500 has seen a cumulative decline of about 4% since November began, potentially marking the worst November performance since 2008 [1][3] Group 2 - New York Fed President John Williams signals a dovish stance, suggesting that there is room for further interest rate cuts as the labor market cools, which has increased market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December from about 30% to 56% [2][5] - Williams' comments are significant as he is a key voting member of the FOMC, and his stance could influence the direction of the December rate decision [2][5] Group 3 - The market is experiencing significant risk transfer, with investors eager to lock in year-to-date gains, leading to increased selling pressure despite Nvidia's strong earnings report [3][6] - The focus of AI narratives is shifting towards Google's Gemini-3 model, which is seen as a disruptive breakthrough, potentially reshaping the AI investment landscape and increasing uncertainty around capital expenditures and returns [3][6] Group 4 - Employment data presents a mixed picture, with a three-month average job growth deemed "decent," but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.44% raises concerns, indicating a shift in the Fed's previously smooth path towards rate cuts [4][6] - The recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have reignited policy uncertainty, with some suggesting reluctance to cut rates in December [4][5] Group 5 - The current market volatility is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Fed's unexpected hawkish turn, internal divisions within the AI sector, and significant sell-offs in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a structural decline in the market [6][7] - Retail investor behavior has shifted from buying to selling, indicating a change in risk appetite, particularly affecting unprofitable tech and AI-related stocks [6][7] Group 6 - Despite increased market volatility, Pasquariello believes the primary upward trend in the stock market remains intact, with expectations of economic acceleration and improved liquidity [7] - The S&P 500 futures may further decline to the 6500 level, but the fundamental value logic of AI technology remains unchanged, with long-term winners likely to be labor-intensive companies that achieve profit expansion through automation [7]

Group 1 - The report anticipates a transition of the Chinese economy from a bottoming phase to a recovery phase in 2026, driven by three unexpected demand-side factors: U.S. fiscal expansion, rising exports, and improved real estate supply-demand dynamics [1][21][54] - U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 5.9% in FY 2026, with potential increases to 7.2% if tariff revenues are eliminated, which could lead to a medium-strength recovery starting in Q1 2026 [1][21][25] - The global supply chain reconstruction is expected to boost China's export growth, particularly in machinery and transportation equipment, which have shown significant growth since April 2025 [2][54][58] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with an estimated inventory clearance period of approximately 25.3 months as of September 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices by the end of 2026 [3][54] - The strategy emphasizes a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors, with particular attention to industries such as chemicals, new energy, and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from the recovery narrative [6][54] - The report highlights that the micro-cap stock market may continue its bullish trend, with an estimated net inflow of approximately 5 billion yuan per month from new private equity quantitative products [7][54]