——极兔速递首次覆盖报告 全球物流黑马，盈利拐点已至 投资要点： | 财务摘要百万美元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 8849 | 10259 | 12100 | 14317 | 17405 | | +/-% | 22% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 22% | | 毛利润 | 473 | 1078 | 1207 | 1434 | 1923 | | 归母净利润 | -1101 | 101 | 382 | 524 | 864 | | +/-% | -166% | 109% | 280% | 37% | 65% | | PE | -7.73 | 65.66 | 31.57 | 23.05 | 13.97 | | PB | 6.52 | 2.48 | 3.76 | 3.23 | 2.62 | | 资料来源：Wind，HTI 研究 | | | | | | 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 股 票 研 究 极兔速递凭借高度灵活的 ...

全球物流黑马，盈利拐点已至 极兔速递-W(1519) ——极兔速递首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 虞楠(分析师) | 021-23219382 | yunan@gtht.com | S0880525040110 | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | 本报告导读： 极兔速递凭借高度灵活的区域代理制度实现从东南亚到全球的快速扩张，东南亚地 区成为利润基石，中国地区盈利改善，新兴市场有望构建第二增长极。 投资要点： | 财务摘要百万美元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 8849 | 10259 | 12100 | 14317 | 17405 | | +/-% | 22% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 22% | | 毛利润 | 473 | 1078 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial recommendation of "Buy" for J&T Express (01519.HK) with a target price of HKD 7.69, representing a potential upside of 36% from the current price of HKD 5.64 [2]. Core Insights - J&T Express is a global integrated logistics service provider that achieved adjusted profitability in 2024, with a net profit of USD 200 million and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.0%. This marks a significant turnaround from a loss of USD 430 million in 2023 [5][34]. - The company operates in three major markets: Southeast Asia, China, and new markets, with Southeast Asia being the primary profit contributor, while the Chinese market shows rapid improvement in profitability [5][50]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2015, J&T Express has rapidly expanded its logistics network across 13 countries, including Southeast Asia and China, utilizing a flexible regional agency model that enhances operational efficiency and reduces capital requirements [17][31]. Financial Performance - In 2024, J&T Express reported total revenue of USD 10.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.8% from 2020 to 2024. The adjusted EBITDA reached USD 780 million, reflecting a 431% increase year-on-year [6][35]. - The company achieved adjusted EBIT of USD 300 million in 2024, marking its first annual profit, with a significant improvement in cash flow from operations, which rose to USD 810 million [37][38]. Market Analysis China Market - J&T Express has established a strong presence in China, achieving a market share of 11.3% with a total volume of 19.8 billion parcels in 2024. The company’s revenue in China reached USD 6.39 billion, growing by 22.2% year-on-year [25][34]. - The growth in the Chinese market is attributed to strategic acquisitions and partnerships, particularly with Pinduoduo, which provided a substantial volume of business during its initial expansion [62][68]. Southeast Asia Market - The Southeast Asian market remains the core profit driver for J&T Express, with a market share of 28.6% and a total parcel volume of 4.56 billion in 2024. Revenue from this region was USD 3.22 billion, up 22.3% year-on-year [9][23]. - The company has maintained its leading position in Southeast Asia since 2020, benefiting from strong economic growth and a favorable demographic profile [9][50]. New Markets - J&T Express is expanding into new markets, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt, where it has achieved a market share of 6.1% with a parcel volume of 280 million in 2024. Revenue from these markets was USD 580 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76.1% [10][26]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts J&T Express's net profits for 2025-2027 to be USD 333 million, USD 538 million, and USD 761 million, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.04, USD 0.06, and USD 0.08 [11][12]. - The valuation is based on a segmented approach, considering the differences in market dynamics and profitability across the three regions, leading to a target market capitalization of HKD 69 billion by 2025 [12][12].