Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's ambitious goal of achieving a 70% self-sufficiency rate in semiconductor production by 2025, which is deemed unrealistic, with projections suggesting a self-sufficiency rate of only 14% by 2025 and around 30% by 2030. The impact of export restrictions on companies like Huawei is also highlighted, indicating a need for the Chinese government to adjust its targets based on current realities [1]. Logic: Ongoing Regulatory Challenges - Western countries have imposed restrictions on Huawei due to security concerns, particularly in the 5G sector, which has hindered China's ability to produce advanced semiconductors. The restrictions on ASML's EUV lithography equipment and TSMC's supply to Huawei have significantly impacted production capabilities [2]. - Despite these challenges, Huawei has managed to release 5G-compatible smartphones, indicating that it has found ways to utilize non-regulated equipment to achieve 7nm processes, prompting further regulatory actions from the U.S. government [2]. Advanced Semiconductor Design Capabilities - Chinese companies, including Huawei and Cambricon, possess advanced capabilities in designing cutting-edge SoCs, but they currently lack the manufacturing technology to produce these systems. The potential for China to develop its own EUV lithography equipment exists, but it may take a decade or more to realize [3]. Other Semiconductors: Power Semiconductors as a Key Area - The article identifies power semiconductors, including analog and discrete devices, as a growing segment where China could significantly increase its market share and potentially disrupt the global market [4]. - In 2023, despite a downturn in the semiconductor industry, equipment shipments to mainland China increased significantly, indicating a strategic response to export restrictions. By 2024, shipments to China are expected to continue growing, capturing about half of the global market share [6]. Electric Vehicle Market Influence - The demand for power semiconductors, particularly discrete devices, is rapidly increasing due to the growth of the electric vehicle market in China. This trend suggests that China will inevitably strengthen its manufacturing capabilities in this critical area [6]. - The article draws parallels between the rapid decline in lithium-ion battery prices and the potential for similar price reductions in the power semiconductor market, suggesting that Chinese manufacturers could emerge as significant players [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Yole Group indicates that China's mainland will hold 21% of global foundry capacity by 2024, positioning it as the second-largest globally, with expectations to rise to 30% by 2030, overtaking Taiwan and South Korea [2][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth - China's mainland is projected to account for 21% of global foundry capacity in 2024, following Taiwan's 23% and ahead of South Korea's 19% [2][4]. - By 2030, China's foundry capacity is expected to increase to 30%, making it the largest in the world [2][4]. - The growth in capacity is attributed to the rapid expansion of domestic foundries, which is a response to escalating US-China trade tensions and sanctions [4]. Group 2: Domestic Semiconductor Industry Development - The expansion of local foundry capacity is part of China's strategy to enhance semiconductor self-sufficiency [4]. - The demand for various chips is rising due to the rapid development of smart cities, IoT, and AI applications, leading to a gradual shift from reliance on overseas foundries to domestic production [4]. - Major Chinese foundries like SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Nexchip are now among the top ten globally [4]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - SMIC has been investing approximately 50 billion RMB annually since 2022 to expand its capacity, with advancements in 10nm and more advanced processes [4]. - According to the International Semiconductor Industry Association, China's chip manufacturers are expected to see a 15% increase in capacity in 2024, reaching 8.85 million wafers per month [4]. - The establishment of 18 new semiconductor wafer fabs is driving a 6% global capacity expansion in the same year [4].