2025 年 8 月 26 日 公司研究 动车组大规模招标打开市场空间，功率半导体业务新产能投产持续贡献增量 ——时代电气（688187.SH、3898.HK）2025 年半年报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：50.18 元 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：40.76 港元 作者 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 分析师：夏天宇 执业证书编号：S0930525070006 021-52523805 xiatian ...

功率半导体市场调研 20250820 摘要 功率半导体价格预计持续下降，受国内竞争和原厂主动降价影响，2025 年上半年 ST、高压 MOS 等产品平均降幅 10%-20%，碳化硅竞争激烈 降幅或达 20%，传统 MOS 和 IGBT 降幅约 10%。 进口品牌调整价格策略，缩小与国产品牌差距，客户可接受的进口品牌 溢价降至 10%-30%，若进口品牌继续降价，国内厂商或将跟进。 国产功率半导体产品获市场认可，逐步占据一定份额，为维持竞争力， 国产产品也在不断调整价格以应对进口品牌的降价策略。 原厂如依法、英飞凌等通过优化原材料和生产工艺降低成本，如实行 "in China for China"策略，维持较高毛利率，本土化生产是关键。 2025 年上半年 IGBT 和碳化硅单管市场竞争激烈，新能源车架构升级推 动碳化硅模块在汽车电子领域应用，如电机主控和汽车悬架。 国内碳化硅晶圆生产依赖进口，但未来八寸碳化硅衬底有望降低成本约 60%，逐步替代传统硅 MOS 产品，斯达、比亚迪等公司在车规认证方 面具有优势。 AI 行业对功率器件需求爆发式增长，尤其是 AI 服务器电源，对碳化硅和 MOS 器件需求量巨大，推 ...

Core Viewpoint - Power semiconductors are at the heart of the energy revolution, experiencing dual opportunities from technological iteration and market expansion, with a focus on enhancing power performance while reducing power consumption [3]. Group 1: Overview of Power Semiconductors - Power semiconductors are essential components in various fields such as electric vehicles, industrial automation, photovoltaic power generation, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics, ensuring efficient energy conversion and control [4]. - The demand for power semiconductors is continuously rising due to the global energy transition and the acceleration of smart manufacturing, particularly in the electric vehicle and industrial equipment sectors [4]. - Power semiconductors can be categorized based on materials (silicon-based, compound devices) and applications (electric vehicle devices, power electronics devices, consumer electronics devices) [4][6]. Group 2: Market Growth and Trends - The global power semiconductor market is entering a high growth phase, driven by third-generation semiconductor materials like GaN and SiC, with a projected market size of $21.06 billion by 2031 and a CAGR of 21.0% from 2025 to 2031 [7]. - IGBT, MOSFET, and SiC devices are experiencing significant structural adjustments in market share, with IGBT expected to reach a market size of $21.1 billion by 2030, reflecting its extensive applications in industrial control and renewable energy systems [8]. - The transition from traditional silicon-based devices to third-generation semiconductor materials is accelerating, with SiC market size projected to grow from €3.1 billion to €9 billion from 2024 to 2029, indicating strong demand for advanced semiconductor technology [9]. Group 3: Current Stage of Power Semiconductors - The global power semiconductor market exhibits a significant Matthew effect, with international giants like Infineon, STMicroelectronics, and ON Semiconductor maintaining market dominance, while local Chinese manufacturers are rapidly emerging [11]. - Domestic companies like Silan Microelectronics and BYD Semiconductor are gaining market share, with predictions indicating that the Chinese IGBT market will exceed ¥60.1 billion by 2025, driven largely by electric vehicle demand [12]. - The domestic power semiconductor industry is supported by regional clusters and government policies, enhancing the competitiveness of local manufacturers and increasing the import substitution rate of key devices [12]. Group 4: Investment and Financing Dynamics - The power semiconductor market in 2025 is characterized by "policy stimulation and cyclical recovery," with domestic manufacturers accelerating the process of domestic substitution in sectors like electric vehicles and industrial automation [18]. - Capital investment in the power semiconductor industry is diverse, involving both startup and mid-sized company financing, as well as capacity expansion for leading manufacturers [18]. - The industry has faced challenges such as price wars and profit margin pressures due to rapid capacity expansion and product homogenization, necessitating a shift towards differentiated innovation [19].

Summary of Huahong Semiconductor Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huahong Semiconductor - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - Huahong Semiconductor has experienced significant price adjustments, particularly in power semiconductors and embedded flash memory platforms, which are expected to show substantial potential moving forward [2][5] - The company anticipates continued growth in MCU, power management, and RF sectors, while CIS remains stable with high-end products showing potential [2][8] - The automotive sector is expected to see increasing demand, with industrial control recovering and projected growth of 15%-20% in 2025 [4][22] Production Capacity and New Facilities - The new factory (Factory 9) is planned to have a total capacity of 83,000 wafers, with specific allocations for power semiconductors (25,000-30,000), power management (12,000), RF and CIS (10,000), and memory (33,000) [2][6] - Initial demand for the new factory will primarily come from domestic clients, with international demand expected to rise significantly after certifications from large overseas IDMs are completed by the end of 2025 [2][7] Financial Performance and Projections - In Q2 2025, North American customer revenue accounted for approximately 9.4%, with expectations to exceed 10% for the year despite potential tariff risks [2][13] - The company aims to improve gross margins to around 10% in the second half of 2025 through price adjustments and maintaining high capacity utilization [4][16] - Total R&D expenses for 2025 are projected at $110 million, primarily focused on 40nm technology [4][18] Domestic and International Market Trends - The revenue share from the Chinese market reached a historical high of 83%, but is expected to gradually decrease to 75%-80% as international client validation is completed [4][20] - The company is focusing on increasing domestic production capabilities and attracting new clients, including smaller firms with growth potential [12][20] Technological Advancements and Collaborations - Huahong Semiconductor is advancing its technology nodes from 55nm to 40nm and plans to reach 28nm in the future, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [4][26] - Collaboration with ST Micro focuses on developing advanced MCU products, with production expected at the 40nm node [4][28] Challenges and Risks - The company acknowledges potential risks from geopolitical factors affecting international business, particularly in the U.S. market [11][13] - Despite concerns over tariffs, the company believes its growth is not significantly impacted by subsidies or inventory adjustments [24] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover in 2025, with Huahong Semiconductor projecting growth in both revenue and gross margins [32] - The company is optimistic about expanding its market presence and providing more foundry services to both domestic and international clients [32] Additional Important Information - The company has made significant progress in domestic production, with equipment localization expected to exceed 20% and raw material localization nearing 40%-50% [9] - The power device market is recovering after a significant downturn, driven by demand from industrial, automotive, and renewable energy sectors [31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic transformations of semiconductor companies in response to market changes, emphasizing the shift towards specialized processes and the importance of technology partnerships in the current geopolitical landscape [2][13][20]. Group 1: Company Strategies - Huahong Semiconductor is planning to acquire a controlling stake in Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics to resolve competition issues related to its IPO commitments [2][3]. - SMIC has shifted its focus to power semiconductors, indicating a proactive approach to meet customer demands and adapt to market changes [4][5]. - Chipone Integrated Circuit is implementing a dual-track strategy of self-research and foundry services, achieving significant revenue growth and marking its first quarterly profit [8][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market is experiencing a transformation due to the explosive growth in AI chip demand and the rise of automotive semiconductors, contrasting with the decline in consumer electronics [3][6]. - Geopolitical factors are reshaping the global supply chain, prompting domestic foundries to seek new paths amid increased external restrictions [3][17]. - The demand for automotive electronics and power devices is driving the growth of domestic foundries, with significant increases in revenue from these sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance - SMIC reported a sales revenue of $2.209 billion in Q2 2025, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.5%, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth [5][6]. - Huahong Semiconductor's Q2 2025 sales revenue reached $566.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, with a projected revenue of $620-640 million for Q3 [15][16]. - Chipone Integrated Circuit's revenue for the first half of 2025 was $3.495 billion, a 21.38% increase year-on-year, with a notable growth in module packaging business [9][10]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The transition to new markets presents challenges, including high capital expenditures and long certification cycles for automotive products [7][22]. - The dual-track model adopted by Chipone Integrated Circuit offers both opportunities for higher margins and risks related to resource allocation [12]. - The collaboration between international firms like GlobalFoundries and domestic companies through technology licensing is emerging as a new paradigm, enhancing local capabilities [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chipown Microelectronics (芯朋微) reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by new product launches and market expansion [1] - The company achieved operating revenue of 636 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.32% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 90.49 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 106.02% [1] Group 2 - The growth in performance is attributed to the diversification strategy of the "Power System Total Solution," with non-AC-DC product lines seeing a substantial revenue increase of 73% year-on-year [1] - The industrial market revenue also saw a significant rise of 57% year-on-year, driven by the successful launch of high-voltage, high-reliability AC-DC products [1] - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including nearly 1,800 effective product models across various applications such as smart appliances, AI computing, and industrial motors [2] Group 3 - Research and development expenses for the first half of the year amounted to 125.24 million yuan, accounting for 19.69% of the company's operating revenue [3] - The company has made key breakthroughs in several new technology areas, with new products aimed at emerging fields like renewable energy, robotics, and AI computing expected to drive significant growth in the next two years [3] - The company is transitioning its new product strategy from "Chipown AC-DC Inside" to providing a comprehensive "Power System Total Solution," enhancing the efficiency of new product promotion [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Power Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the power semiconductor industry, specifically discussing the performance and outlook of Huahong and its various product platforms [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pricing and Revenue Trends - Huahong adjusted prices by 5%-8% in May, but the average selling price (ASP) declined in Q2 due to changes in product mix and new capacity at the factory [1][3]. - There is insufficient support for price increases in Q3, making the target of a 10% ASP increase for the year difficult to achieve [1][4]. - The overall order visibility is low, and the company expects to maintain the original ASP increase target, but the probability of achieving it is low [4]. Demand and Capacity Insights - Demand for the BCD process platform has significantly increased, with expected capacity growth by year-end [1][5]. - Major clients like MPs have increased orders, but there are concerns about dependency on single clients and the impact of pricing strategies on orders [1][5][6]. - The NODE platform has stable demand for ETOX, but demand for platforms like Ziguang and Jushen has decreased [1][9]. Product-Specific Developments - ETOX production is expected to increase, with stable demand from MCU and smart card applications [1][13][15]. - The MOSFET product structure is shifting from medium voltage SGT to low voltage products, with a decrease in demand for new energy orders [1][18][19]. - The eFlash total input volume is steadily increasing, with expectations to reach approximately 18-19k units by year-end [1][15]. Client and Order Dynamics - MPs' orders have increased from 14k at the beginning of 2024 to 16k in Q3, with a projected demand of 24k by year-end [6][7]. - Other clients like Nanxing and Aivi have also seen order increases, but overall demand has weakened [8][15]. - The DDIC production has been transferred to the factory, with stable customer demand but short-term design optimization issues affecting orders [30][31]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The company is cautious about future demand, particularly for 2026, with a pessimistic sales forecast [39]. - The overall market sentiment is weak, and there are concerns about the ability to meet ASP targets due to reduced demand and price sensitivity from end customers [36][39]. Additional Important Insights - The transition of production capacity to different product lines is ongoing, with plans to shift some capacity from ETOX to iFlash products [12]. - The company is facing challenges in maintaining production levels for IGBT and other products due to price constraints and customer demand fluctuations [26][27][28]. - The overall semiconductor supply chain, including silicon wafer prices, is stable, with a downward trend in prices noted [34]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the power semiconductor industry.

Group 1: Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, driven by factors such as the proliferation of electric vehicles, the penetration of smart driving, and the growing demand for data centers and AI computing power [2][6] - In the first half of 2025, the global semiconductor market reached a scale of $346 billion, representing an 18.9% year-on-year growth [2] - The domestic semiconductor industry also performed strongly, with a reported 11.1% year-on-year growth in the electronic information manufacturing sector [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Nearly 40 semiconductor companies in the A-share market reported positive net profit growth for the first half of 2025, with 14 companies showing a net profit increase exceeding 100% [1][2] - Notable performers include Haiguang Information, which reported a net profit of 1.639 billion yuan, and Ruixin Micro, which projected a net profit growth of 185% to 195% [3][7] - The performance improvement is concentrated in areas such as CIS, power semiconductors, memory, and CPUs, indicating a broad recovery across various segments of the semiconductor industry [3][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in the semiconductor sector is characterized as structural and weak, with significant growth concentrated in computing chips and automotive-grade semiconductors, primarily driven by AI infrastructure and domestic substitution benefits [3][4] - The demand for AI chips is experiencing explosive growth, with projections indicating that the semiconductor value within data center servers will reach approximately $500 billion by 2030 [6][8] - The domestic semiconductor market is benefiting from policies promoting core component localization, which contributed about 40% to the growth of domestic semiconductor companies in the first half of 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Infineon Technologies has raised its profit margin forecast for the current fiscal year due to increasing demand for semiconductors from the automotive, energy infrastructure, and AI data center sectors [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects revenue for the fiscal year ending September 30 to be approximately €14.6 billion (about $16.9 billion), slightly down from €14.96 billion in the same period last year [2]. - Adjusted gross margin is projected to be at least 40%, with profit margin around 15% [2]. - For the quarter ending June 30, sales were €3.7 billion, unchanged from the previous year, while net profit decreased from €403 million to €305 million [3]. Market Outlook - Infineon is focusing on strategic growth areas such as software-defined vehicles, AI data center power solutions, and rapidly growing energy infrastructure investments [3]. - The company is well-positioned in the semiconductor market with a product portfolio that includes power semiconductors, analog and sensors, as well as control and connectivity solutions [3]. Analyst Predictions - According to Vara Research, analysts predict the fiscal year revenue to be €14.67 billion with a segment performance margin of 16.4% [3][4]. - The expected revenue for the quarter ending September is around €3.9 billion, with segment profit margins projected to be in the low teens [5].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a significant asset restructuring, with Chipway Technology planning to acquire 100% of Jishun Technology and 17.15% of Shunlei Technology, aiming for full control of Shunlei Technology [1][5]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction price for the target assets is tentatively set at 402.6 million yuan, comprising a cash payment of 126.54 million yuan and convertible bonds worth 276.06 million yuan [3][4]. - The company plans to raise no more than 50 million yuan in matching funds, which will not exceed 100% of the transaction price and will involve issuing shares to no more than 35 specific investors [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Chipway Technology reported a revenue of 353 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, up 15.70% from the previous year [5]. - Shunlei Technology achieved a revenue of 217 million yuan and a net profit of 38.79 million yuan in 2024, both showing growth [6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition will allow Chipway Technology to leverage Shunlei Technology's customer resources to enter various sectors, including automotive electronics and industrial applications, enhancing market synergy [5][6]. - Shunlei Technology's established wafer and packaging production lines will help Chipway Technology improve supply chain management and increase production capacity [7].