消息面上， 柬泰边境冲突已持续多日，中国驻柬埔寨使馆提醒靠近柬泰边境的中国公民加强安全防 范。据中国驻柬埔寨大使馆微信公众号消息，12月10日，有网络媒体报道称，柬埔寨奥多棉吉省奥斯玛 赌场区域遭到炮击，有中国公民受伤。中国驻柬使馆正积极核实有关情况。 高盛近日发布研报称，将金界控股评级由"中性"升至"买入"，因对公司的博彩总收入及EBITDA持续上 升充满信心。该行指，全新的德崇国际机场已启用，客运力大幅提升。该行数据显示，第四季至今，前 往金边的航班数量持续强劲增长，整体同比增幅达10%至15%，其中中国航线更升40%至50%。另外， 柬埔寨政府最近亦对中国旅行试行免签政策。 金界控股(03918)午后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.39%，报5.13港元，成交额2282.57万港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 50.06, representing a potential upside of 30.36% from the current stock price of HKD 38.40 [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The VIP gaming table turnover increased by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, while mass gaming revenue grew by 12.8% year-on-year and 7.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the group grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, recovering to 81.3% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The company holds a strong balance sheet with net cash of HKD 34.8 billion, the strongest in the industry [3]. Financial Summary - Total net revenue is projected to grow from HKD 35,683.6 million in 2023 to HKD 55,764.5 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% [2][4]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from HKD 9,955.0 million in 2023 to HKD 16,439.8 million in 2027, with an EBITDA margin improving from 27.9% to 29.5% over the same period [2][4]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from HKD 6,828.0 million in 2023 to HKD 12,317.4 million in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 9.6% [2][4]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout, with dividends per share expected to increase from HKD 0.5 in 2023 to HKD 1.6 in 2027, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.3% by 2027 [2][4]. Operational Highlights - The performance of "Galaxy Macau™" and the StarWorld Hotel showed a net revenue increase of 20% and a decrease of 6% year-on-year, respectively, with hotel occupancy rates at 98% and 99% [3]. - The company is progressing with the construction of the fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau™," expected to be completed in 2027, which will introduce several high-end hotel brands and a theater with 5,000 seats [3]. - The company hosted approximately 260 entertainment, sports, arts, and cultural events from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in visitor traffic to "Galaxy Macau™" [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance in Q1, with a 11% year-on-year increase in visitor numbers to Macau and a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase. The total gaming revenue in Macau for Q1 was HKD 56 billion, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth [1] - The company is confident in its long-term prospects, as evidenced by plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 50% and distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.5 per share in June 2025 [2] - The opening of the Capella hotel is expected to attract high-end customers, enhancing the luxury hotel experience in Macau [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 net revenue reached HKD 11.2 billion, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, with gaming and non-gaming segments contributing HKD 8.9 billion and HKD 1.6 billion respectively [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 grew by 16.3% to HKD 3.3 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 29.4%, up by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 46.1 billion, HKD 50.0 billion, and HKD 54.7 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 8.5%, and 9.3% [3][4] Market Position and Events - The company has increased its market share during the May Day holiday, with a series of events planned for Q2 expected to drive demand further [2] - Upcoming major events include concerts by BTS and G-Dragon, which are anticipated to positively impact Q2 performance [2] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization corresponds to a 9.7x EV/EBITDA for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [3] - Financial ratios such as P/B are projected to decrease from 2.0 in 2023 to 1.5 by 2027, suggesting improving value over time [4][11]