( 图片来源：《澳华财经在线》) 【财经要闻及评论】 NAB澳洲国民银行预计澳储行将在2月和5月加息 澳洲国民银行（NAB）目前预测，澳储行（RBA）将在2026年2月和5月分别加息。 这是澳洲四大行中第二家预测2026年将加息的银行。 随着控制权顺利移交给亿万富豪Mathieson家族和美国Bally's公司，Star已度过生死一线，但仍面临因历 史洗钱行为而可能被澳洲交易报告和分析中心处以高额罚款，以及难以获得长期贷款等方面的挑战和威 胁。 最近上任的董事局主席Bruce Mathieson Jnr将接管McCann行政职务，直至找到继任者。 NAB首席经济学家Sally Auld表示，目前本地经济已处于趋势增长水平，私营部门最终需求也比澳储行 预期的更为强劲。 NAB商业调查显示，国内各行业产能利用率普遍有所提高，并且接受调查的企业报告称近几个月利润 率方面的压力有所减轻。 "澳储行在政策立场上表现出不确定性，不再认为3.6%的政策利率'……略显偏紧'。" 通胀压力持续存在情况下，NAB认为澳储行将在2026年上半年对货币政策进行适度调整。 "救火CEO"携1600万澳元天价薪酬功成身退 赌场巨头Sta ...

消息面上， 柬泰边境冲突已持续多日，中国驻柬埔寨使馆提醒靠近柬泰边境的中国公民加强安全防 范。据中国驻柬埔寨大使馆微信公众号消息，12月10日，有网络媒体报道称，柬埔寨奥多棉吉省奥斯玛 赌场区域遭到炮击，有中国公民受伤。中国驻柬使馆正积极核实有关情况。 高盛近日发布研报称，将金界控股评级由"中性"升至"买入"，因对公司的博彩总收入及EBITDA持续上 升充满信心。该行指，全新的德崇国际机场已启用，客运力大幅提升。该行数据显示，第四季至今，前 往金边的航班数量持续强劲增长，整体同比增幅达10%至15%，其中中国航线更升40%至50%。另外， 柬埔寨政府最近亦对中国旅行试行免签政策。 金界控股(03918)午后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.39%，报5.13港元，成交额2282.57万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the EBITDA for 澳博 (Aubo) in Q3 was HKD 881 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28% but a year-on-year decline of 15%, aligning with the bank's and market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The market share in the mid-market segment decreased by 110 basis points, primarily due to the underperformance of satellite casino operations [1] - The expected full-year EBITDA for the group is HKD 3.529 billion, implying a required quarter-on-quarter growth of 14% to reach HKD 1.002 billion in Q4, which the bank considers to be an optimistic forecast [1] Debt Levels - The group's net debt reached HKD 21.8 billion in Q3, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.2 times over the past 12 months, the highest in the Macau industry [1] - The bank anticipates that the completion of the acquisitions of 凯旋门 (The Parisian) and 十六浦 (Sixteen Piers) satellite casinos in Q4 will further increase the debt ratio [1] Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 2.8 and assigned a "Reduce" rating for the stock [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Justice announced the seizure of 127,271 bitcoins controlled by Chen Zhi, founder of the Prince Group, valued at approximately $15 billion, marking the largest asset freeze in cryptocurrency history [1] Group 1: Background of Chen Zhi and the Prince Group - Chen Zhi, born in 1987 in Fujian, China, transitioned from a net cafe owner to a transnational crime figure, establishing a complex network of illegal activities over a decade [3][5] - In 2011, Chen Zhi founded Hengxin Real Estate in Cambodia, capitalizing on the post-war reconstruction and chaotic real estate market [5] - The establishment of the Prince Group in 2015 marked the beginning of a diversified business empire, including casinos, shopping centers, and banks, while simultaneously building a criminal network [5][6] Group 2: Criminal Activities and Operations - The Prince Group operated an online gambling network targeting Chinese citizens, with illegal profits exceeding 5 billion yuan [6] - Following Cambodia's gambling ban in 2020, Chen Zhi shifted focus to telecom fraud, creating multiple scam centers that exploited hundreds of victims [8][10] - The organization employed a sophisticated management system akin to legitimate businesses, with detailed operational protocols for scamming victims [10][11] Group 3: Financial Growth and Asset Accumulation - Over ten years, Chen Zhi's wealth expanded exponentially, acquiring luxury properties and assets, including a £12 million villa in London and a $24 million yacht [10] - The Prince Group utilized cryptocurrency for money laundering, employing techniques to obscure the flow of funds until blockchain analysis revealed their operations [11][22] Group 4: Political Connections and Protection - Chen Zhi's political connections in Cambodia provided a protective shield for his criminal activities, allowing him to evade law enforcement through bribery and political donations [11][14] - The organization expanded its network across over 30 countries, forming a symbiotic relationship between crime, power, and capital [11][14] Group 5: Legal Consequences and Future Implications - The seizure of $15 billion in assets highlighted vulnerabilities in the Prince Group's operations, particularly their reliance on cryptocurrency for laundering [22] - The U.S. exercised jurisdiction based on the impact of the fraud on American citizens, leading to significant legal repercussions for the Prince Group and its affiliates [22] - The ongoing investigations and asset freezes indicate a potential unraveling of Chen Zhi's protective network, suggesting that his criminal empire may be facing imminent collapse [22]

Core Viewpoint - International Entertainment Company (IEC) is facing significant financial challenges, with a projected pre-tax loss of HKD 260 million (approximately USD 33.4 million) for the latest fiscal year, marking a substantial increase from the previous year's loss of HKD 162.2 million. Despite this, investor sentiment remains stable, possibly due to the company's history of profit warnings since February 2023 [3][5][6]. Financial Performance - IEC has issued its fifth profit warning in two years, with the latest fiscal year's loss expected to increase by 60% [5]. - Revenue for the six months ending December 2024 surged over 100% year-on-year, rising from HKD 105 million to HKD 268 million, despite losses increasing from HKD 36.1 million to HKD 95 million [6][9]. - The company's cash reserves increased from HKD 617 million in June 2024 to HKD 855 million by December 2024, indicating a strong liquidity position despite ongoing losses [6]. Strategic Moves - IEC is set to acquire a casino adjacent to its New Coast Hotel, committing USD 1 billion to USD 1.2 billion for renovations, aiming to transform the property into a comprehensive resort [4][6]. - The Philippine government is privatizing its 43 state-owned casinos, with IEC's acquisition positioning it as a pioneer in this process [6][9]. Market Context - The Philippine gaming market is smaller compared to Macau and Nevada, with Pagcor reporting record revenues of PHP 112 billion (approximately USD 1.9 billion) in 2024, a 41% increase year-on-year [9]. - The total revenue for the Philippine gaming industry, including Pagcor, reached PHP 410 billion in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [9]. - IEC's market capitalization is significantly lower than its competitors, with a market cap of HKD 1.69 billion and a high price-to-sales ratio of 4.33, suggesting a potential valuation bubble [9].

Group 1 - Wynn Macau's stock price fell nearly 8%, reaching HKD 6.24, marking a new low since July 8 [1] - Wynn Resorts Limited reported a second-quarter adjusted property EBITDAR of USD 25.4 million for its Macau operations, a year-on-year decline of 9.51%, with operating revenue at USD 12.8 million, down 20.78% [1] - The operating revenue for Wynn Palace in the second quarter was USD 540 million, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, with adjusted property EBITDAR at USD 16 million, down 14.8% [1] Group 2 - The percentage of table game win for the mass market was 22.3%, lower than the 23.6% recorded in the same period last year [1] - The percentage of VIP table game win as a share of turnover was 2.9%, below the expected range of 3.1%-3.4% for the property and lower than the 4.1% recorded in the second quarter of 2024 [1]

Group 1 - PENN Entertainment Inc shares have increased by 9%, reaching $19.20, the highest level since early March, following an upgrade from Citizens JMP from "market perform" to "outperform" with a price target of $24 [1] - The stock has been recovering from an early-April low of $13.25 and is now approaching its year-over-year breakeven level, with analysts evenly split on ratings [2] - There has been a 5.6% increase in short interest over the past two reporting periods, now accounting for 13.4% of the stock's total float, indicating a potential for short covering [3] Group 2 - The average trading pace suggests it would take shorts five days to buy back their positions, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [3] - Options for PENN Entertainment are currently considered affordable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 44%, ranking in the 3rd percentile of its annual range, suggesting low volatility expectations [3]

Group 1 - The escalating border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have severely impacted various sectors, leading to a decline in the quality of life for residents [1][3] - Cambodia has cut off electricity supply from Thailand to Poipet, opting for a new power line from Vietnam, which has resulted in unstable electricity and increased demand for generators [1] - Fuel prices in Cambodia have surged, with gasoline reaching 48 to 50 Thai Baht per liter and diesel at 38 to 40 Thai Baht, compared to Thailand's prices of 41 Baht for gasoline and 32 Baht for diesel [1] Group 2 - The border closure has led to a decrease in investor confidence in Thailand's border provinces, with a reported decline in product sales affecting businesses and manufacturing [3] - Cambodia has banned the import of Thai agricultural products, which, while only accounting for 5% to 10% of Thailand's mangosteen exports, has raised concerns among Thai farmers [3] - The construction sector in Thailand is at risk due to potential restrictions on the movement of approximately 16,000 Cambodian workers [3] Group 3 - The tightening of border policies has resulted in a significant drop in casino patronage in Poipet, where 80% of customers are Thai, impacting the local gambling economy [3] - The stay duration for citizens of both countries has been reduced to 7 days, with Cambodia advising its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Thailand [4] - Since early June, the number of Cambodian tourists visiting Thailand has decreased by 43%, leading to a drop in hotel occupancy rates in Thailand [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Macau's gaming revenue reached a record high in May 2025, with total gaming revenue (GGR) of 21.19 billion MOP (approximately 2.62 billion USD), marking the highest monthly figure since January 2020 [1] - The revenue in May increased by 12.4% compared to April and by 5% compared to May 2024, indicating a strong recovery trend [1] - The growth was primarily driven by the Golden Week holiday from May 1 to May 5, during which over 850,000 tourists visited Macau, with the mass market contributing 75% of the total revenue [1] Group 2 - MDC's report indicates that May's revenue has recovered to 81.7% of the levels seen in the same period in 2019, suggesting robust recovery momentum [1] - Analysts are generally optimistic about future growth, with some institutions raising their performance expectations for the remainder of 2025 [1]

Financial Performance - GEG's Q1 Net Revenue reached $11.2 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year but a 1% decrease quarter-on-quarter[3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $3.3 billion, up 16% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter[3] - Galaxy Macau's Q1 Net Revenue was $9.1 billion, up 10% year-on-year, while Adjusted EBITDA was $3.0 billion, up 15% year-on-year[16] - StarWorld Macau's Q1 Net Revenue was $1.2 billion, down 9% year-on-year, and Adjusted EBITDA was $350 million, down 20% year-on-year[19] Balance Sheet and Dividends - The Group's cash and liquid investments increased to $33.0 billion, with a net position of $29.0 billion after deducting debt of $4.0 billion[6] - A final dividend of $0.50 per share was recommended, payable in June 2025[6] Operational Highlights - Galaxy Macau experienced a 64% year-on-year increase in foot traffic, attributed to diverse non-gaming amenities and entertainment offerings[7] - Hotel occupancy for Q1 across Galaxy Macau's seven hotels was 99%[16] - Hotel occupancy for Q1 at StarWorld Macau was 100%[19] Development and Expansion - Capella at Galaxy Macau soft launched in early May, adding a new ultra-luxury hotel brand to GEG's portfolio[11, 59] - Construction of Phase 4 is progressing, focusing on non-gaming amenities, entertainment, and family facilities, with completion scheduled for 2027[11, 65]