海通国际预计金沙中国2025至2027年各年收入分别为73.95亿、79.07亿及83.25亿美元，同比增长4.4%、 6.9%及5.3%，博彩毛收入为70.34亿、74.71亿及78.64亿美元，同比增长4.3%、6.2%及5.3%，经调整物 业EBITDA为24.17亿、26.52亿及28.41亿美元，经调整物业EBITDA利润率为32.7%、33.5%及34.1%。 海通国际发布研报称，首次覆盖金沙中国(01928)，予"优于大市"评级，目标价25.6港元。作为澳门博彩 龙头，在行业复苏的背景下，金沙中国进入盈利能力提升-现金流质量改善-分红稳定的正向循环，当前 估值仍低于疫情前水平。金沙中国共有约1,680张赌台、约3,700台角子机，为澳门六家上市博企之最。 除了受到最大赌台规模的正向影响之外，公司庞大的中场业务基础使其在行业覆苏及游客回流时最先受 益。 报告指，金沙中国专注中场业务，定位中高端客户，中场高赢率为公司带来更多的利润，叠加规模最大 的赌台及老虎机数量，使得公司的市场份额多年蝉联第一。此外，澳门伦敦人已于第二季改造完成，其 经调整EBITDA利润率已回升至31.9%，后续有望持续改善并带 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Macau's gaming revenue has shown significant recovery, with July's gross gaming revenue reaching 22.125 billion MOP, a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - For the first seven months of the year, Macau's total gaming revenue reached 140.896 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that July's gaming revenue growth exceeded market expectations by 6 percentage points, with recovery rates of approximately 90% compared to pre-pandemic levels [1] Group 2 - The strong data from July counters the argument that growth in June was solely driven by a specific event, suggesting a broader improvement in demand since the second quarter [2] - High-end customer segments in VIP and premium mass gaming have been recovering since April, indicating that Macau's recovery may serve as a leading indicator for high-end consumption in China [2] - Two out of three gaming companies that reported second-quarter earnings significantly exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about increased competition due to promotional activities by Sands China [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in Macau has shown strong performance in Q3, with five out of six companies exceeding market expectations, leading to significant outperformance against the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Five out of six Macau gaming companies reported Q3 results that exceeded market expectations, with the exception of Wynn Macau due to underperformance in new projects [1] - Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and MGM China have shown an average stock price increase of 5.9% since October, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 10.8 percentage points [1] - The Parisian achieved an EBITDA margin of 28% within just 18 days of opening, highlighting Sands' strong competitive position and operational excellence in the mass market [1] Group 2: Industry Growth and Trends - The gaming industry's revenue is expected to continue moderate growth into next year, supported by new projects and a low base effect [1] - Visitor data remains stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5% in September, indicating an improvement in visitor structure [1] - The contribution of new projects to overall revenue is significant; without these, market growth would be considerably lower [1] Group 3: Policy Risks - Ongoing policy risks remain a long-term concern for the sector, as evidenced by the investigation of Australian Crown Casino employees in mainland China, which led to a 3% average drop in stock prices [1] - The tightening of policies towards the gaming industry since 2013 continues to create a cautious environment for business expansion in mainland China [1] - The depreciation pressure on the Renminbi may lead to stricter capital outflow controls, particularly affecting high-end mass and VIP gaming segments [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the overall sector in the next three months, recommending focus on Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and MGM China for their strong operational capabilities and growth potential [2] - Sands China is highlighted for its strong dividend yield and potential for high growth next year [2] - Galaxy Entertainment is noted for its operational strength and potential for maintaining performance with new project expansions [2] - MGM China is expected to significantly enhance its performance following the opening of new projects in Q2 next year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Macau's gaming revenue (GGR) for September 2017 reached 21.36 billion MOP, representing a 16.1% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations of 15% [1] - The strong performance in September is attributed to the VIP segment, as high-end clients prefer to visit during off-peak seasons, contributing to the growth of both VIP and high-end mass gaming [1][12] - The upcoming "Golden Week" holiday is expected to further boost October's GGR, with hotel bookings indicating strong demand, particularly for 3 to 5-star hotels [3] Group 2 - The article discusses several short-term catalysts for GGR growth, including the Christmas, New Year, and Spring Festival holidays, as well as the anticipated opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge by the end of the year [4] - The article emphasizes that despite high base effects, the Macau gaming sector is expected to continue its recovery, driven by VIP gaming and the opening of new facilities [4] - The performance of major gaming companies such as Melco International Development and Melco Resorts & Entertainment is highlighted, with both companies reporting significant revenue growth in Q2 2017 [5][6] Group 3 - Sands China reported a slight miss in Q2 earnings, with net revenue of $1.79 billion, but showed strong growth in mass market gaming, indicating a successful transition towards non-gaming revenue streams [9][10] - MGM China experienced a decline in revenue but is expected to benefit from new projects, with a target price increase reflecting potential future growth [11][12] - Galaxy Entertainment's Q2 revenue met expectations, with a strong performance in both VIP and mass market segments, leading to an upward revision of its target price [13][14] Group 4 - Wynn Macau reported strong revenue growth, particularly in VIP gaming, but faced challenges with its new property, Wynn Palace, which underperformed due to external construction impacts [15][16] - SJM Holdings showed a mixed performance, with revenue growth in VIP gaming but overall underperformance compared to market expectations, leading to a cautious outlook [17][18] - The article concludes with a neutral outlook on the gaming sector, emphasizing the competitive landscape and the need for companies to adapt to changing market dynamics [19]