Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's Q3 2025 performance aligns with market expectations, showing a revenue of HKD 12.163 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase and a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase, recovering to 96% of Q3 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the company was HKD 3.341 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase but a 6% quarter-on-quarter decline, recovering to 81% of Q3 2019 levels, closely matching Bloomberg's expectation of HKD 3.321 billion [1] - The increase in operational expenditure and normalization of VIP business win rates are identified as key factors affecting performance [1] Development Trends - Galaxy aims for a total gaming revenue market share of 20-22%, with strong performance noted in October 2025 due to higher VIP business win rates [1] - Management observed an improvement in demand in the last weeks of October 2025, with expectations for a strong finish in Q4 2025 [1] - One-time marketing expenses during the summer led to a 300 basis point decline in profit margins, while average fixed operating costs remained stable compared to Q2 2025 [1] - The company plans to host large concerts and sports events in Macau, having signed partnerships with UFC, Tencent, and Damai for various events and services [1] - Galaxy intends to relocate some gaming tables from Galaxy Macau to the StarWorld Hotel, anticipating demand from existing satellite casino customers after the satellite casino's closure at the end of 2025 [1] - Phase 4 of Galaxy is expected to be completed by 2027, with Broadway potentially serving as future land reserves for redesign or reconstruction for Phase 5 expansion [1] - Despite delays in the legalization of Thai gambling, Galaxy remains interested in investment opportunities in Thailand [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to increased operational expenditures, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 1% and 3% to HKD 14.031 billion and HKD 14.923 billion, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 9 times the 2026 EV/Adjusted EBITDA, with a maintained "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 44.80, indicating a 16% upside potential based on an 11 times 2026 EV/Adjusted EBITDA valuation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International initiates coverage on Sands China (01928) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 25.6, highlighting the company's potential for profitability improvement and cash flow quality enhancement in the context of industry recovery [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Sands China operates approximately 1,680 gaming tables and around 3,700 slot machines, making it the largest among the six listed gaming companies in Macau [1] - The company benefits from its substantial mass market business, positioning it to be one of the first to gain from industry recovery and tourist influx [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Sands China from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at USD 7.395 billion, USD 7.907 billion, and USD 8.325 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 6.9%, and 5.3% respectively [2] - The projected gross gaming revenue for the same years is USD 7.034 billion, USD 7.471 billion, and USD 7.864 billion, with growth rates of 4.3%, 6.2%, and 5.3% [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted to be USD 2.417 billion, USD 2.652 billion, and USD 2.841 billion, with adjusted property EBITDA margins of 32.7%, 33.5%, and 34.1% [2] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Sands China focuses on the mass market segment, targeting mid-to-high-end customers, which contributes to higher profit margins due to a favorable win rate [1] - The company has maintained the largest market share in Macau for several years, supported by its extensive gaming table and slot machine offerings [1] - The completion of renovations at The Londoner Macao in the second quarter has led to an adjusted EBITDA margin recovery to 31.9%, with expectations for continued improvement in overall profitability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Macau's gaming revenue has shown significant recovery, with July's gross gaming revenue reaching 22.125 billion MOP, a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - For the first seven months of the year, Macau's total gaming revenue reached 140.896 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that July's gaming revenue growth exceeded market expectations by 6 percentage points, with recovery rates of approximately 90% compared to pre-pandemic levels [1] Group 2 - The strong data from July counters the argument that growth in June was solely driven by a specific event, suggesting a broader improvement in demand since the second quarter [2] - High-end customer segments in VIP and premium mass gaming have been recovering since April, indicating that Macau's recovery may serve as a leading indicator for high-end consumption in China [2] - Two out of three gaming companies that reported second-quarter earnings significantly exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about increased competition due to promotional activities by Sands China [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in Macau has shown strong performance in Q3, with five out of six companies exceeding market expectations, leading to significant outperformance against the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Five out of six Macau gaming companies reported Q3 results that exceeded market expectations, with the exception of Wynn Macau due to underperformance in new projects [1] - Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and MGM China have shown an average stock price increase of 5.9% since October, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 10.8 percentage points [1] - The Parisian achieved an EBITDA margin of 28% within just 18 days of opening, highlighting Sands' strong competitive position and operational excellence in the mass market [1] Group 2: Industry Growth and Trends - The gaming industry's revenue is expected to continue moderate growth into next year, supported by new projects and a low base effect [1] - Visitor data remains stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5% in September, indicating an improvement in visitor structure [1] - The contribution of new projects to overall revenue is significant; without these, market growth would be considerably lower [1] Group 3: Policy Risks - Ongoing policy risks remain a long-term concern for the sector, as evidenced by the investigation of Australian Crown Casino employees in mainland China, which led to a 3% average drop in stock prices [1] - The tightening of policies towards the gaming industry since 2013 continues to create a cautious environment for business expansion in mainland China [1] - The depreciation pressure on the Renminbi may lead to stricter capital outflow controls, particularly affecting high-end mass and VIP gaming segments [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the overall sector in the next three months, recommending focus on Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and MGM China for their strong operational capabilities and growth potential [2] - Sands China is highlighted for its strong dividend yield and potential for high growth next year [2] - Galaxy Entertainment is noted for its operational strength and potential for maintaining performance with new project expansions [2] - MGM China is expected to significantly enhance its performance following the opening of new projects in Q2 next year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Macau's gaming revenue (GGR) for September 2017 reached 21.36 billion MOP, representing a 16.1% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations of 15% [1] - The strong performance in September is attributed to the VIP segment, as high-end clients prefer to visit during off-peak seasons, contributing to the growth of both VIP and high-end mass gaming [1][12] - The upcoming "Golden Week" holiday is expected to further boost October's GGR, with hotel bookings indicating strong demand, particularly for 3 to 5-star hotels [3] Group 2 - The article discusses several short-term catalysts for GGR growth, including the Christmas, New Year, and Spring Festival holidays, as well as the anticipated opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge by the end of the year [4] - The article emphasizes that despite high base effects, the Macau gaming sector is expected to continue its recovery, driven by VIP gaming and the opening of new facilities [4] - The performance of major gaming companies such as Melco International Development and Melco Resorts & Entertainment is highlighted, with both companies reporting significant revenue growth in Q2 2017 [5][6] Group 3 - Sands China reported a slight miss in Q2 earnings, with net revenue of $1.79 billion, but showed strong growth in mass market gaming, indicating a successful transition towards non-gaming revenue streams [9][10] - MGM China experienced a decline in revenue but is expected to benefit from new projects, with a target price increase reflecting potential future growth [11][12] - Galaxy Entertainment's Q2 revenue met expectations, with a strong performance in both VIP and mass market segments, leading to an upward revision of its target price [13][14] Group 4 - Wynn Macau reported strong revenue growth, particularly in VIP gaming, but faced challenges with its new property, Wynn Palace, which underperformed due to external construction impacts [15][16] - SJM Holdings showed a mixed performance, with revenue growth in VIP gaming but overall underperformance compared to market expectations, leading to a cautious outlook [17][18] - The article concludes with a neutral outlook on the gaming sector, emphasizing the competitive landscape and the need for companies to adapt to changing market dynamics [19]