在喜忧参半的信号下，全球镍市场迈入2026年。虽然由于预期印尼供应将趋紧，价格近期持坚，但更广 泛的行业预测仍指向结构性过剩，这可能限制持续上涨。 截至1月2日当周，镍期货价格达到每吨16,765美元，周度上涨了近7%，主要受政策面驱动的情绪支 撑，而不是需求基本面的变化。 进入2026年，关键的问题依然是全球镍供需是否能够趋向平衡。 **印尼政策信号加剧不确定性** 主要金融机构对于镍价的中期前景保持谨慎。 世界银行（World Bank）预测，2026年镍价约为每吨15,500美元，2027年小幅上涨至每吨16,000美元。 高盛强调，印尼生产商的利润是关键的波动因素，预测到2026年底价格将跌向每吨14,500美元。 诺里尔斯克镍公司（Nornickel）预测，2026年镍供应过剩约275,000吨，增强了价格持续承压的预期。 荷兰国际集团（ING）预测，镍价将保持区间波动，受高企的库存和迟滞的需求制约，2026年平均价预 计为每吨15,250美元。 印尼正在考虑削减其2026年镍矿石生产配额至约2.5亿湿吨，这大幅低于2025年的3.79亿湿吨目标。尽管 这些政策讨论提振了近期的价格情绪，但市场参与者 ...

2025年12月28日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 工业硅：关注供应端扰动，情绪发酵或推高盘面 | 12 | | 多晶硅：震荡格局，关注市场情绪 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：基差背离待修正，正极厂启动检修 | 21 | | 棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期价格反弹 | 29 | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆油震荡运行 | 29 | | 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 | 35 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 40 | | 白糖：维持弱基差预期 | 46 | | 棉花：震荡偏强，注意市场情绪变化20251228 | 53 | | 生猪：惜售情绪旺，等待元旦后现货印证 | 60 | | 花生：关注现货 | 66 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，具体来看： 1）配额事件：印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减 至 2.5 亿吨镍矿配额。根据我们测算，预计 2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，如果 2.5 亿吨的配额落地，矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺，并对存量的高库存形 成较大冲击。不过，从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看，矿端立刻的"一刀切"，易于激化与下游外资冶炼 企业的矛盾，而且从往年来看，印尼的政策动态调整空间较大，2026Q1 将是跟踪政策落地的重要窗口。 不过，如果放眼到长周期，印尼长线防止过剩和偏挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿时代主要为吸引冶炼 投资为主，但在冶 ...

兑付保障及清偿顺序存在本质区别。国债由国家财政承担无条件兑付责任，不存在破产清算的场景，兑 付保障具有绝对稳定性。根据2025年修订的《企业破产法》，企业债持有人在企业破产清算时的清偿顺 序位于股权持有人之前，但仍需依赖企业剩余可分配资产。若企业资产不足以覆盖全部债务，企业债持 有人将面临部分甚至全部本金损失，而国债不会出现此类情况。 债券是金融市场中重要的固定收益类投资工具，国债和企业债是其中两类常见品种。作为不同发行主体 发行的债券，二者在风险特征上存在显著差异，了解这些差异有助于投资者更清晰地认识两类债券的属 性。以下将从信用风险、利率相关风险、流动性风险、兑付保障及清偿顺序、政策风险等维度，依据 2025年全国最新修订的法案法规，对二者的风险差异进行科普解读。 信用风险是二者最核心的差异。国债的发行主体为国家，依据2025年修订的《中华人民共和国预算 法》，国债的兑付由中央财政统筹保障，以国家信用作为背书，不存在违约的可能性。而企业债的发行 主体是各类企业，根据2025年修订的《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》，企业债的兑付依赖于发行企业 的经营收益和资产状况，若企业出现经营亏损、现金流断裂或破产清算等情 ...

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 14861, with an opening price of 14482 and a current price of 14912, reflecting a 3.04% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 15010, while the lowest was 14464, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The analysis suggests that the silver TD market is maintaining a high-level oscillation, with a focus on support levels between 14000-14400 and resistance levels between 15000-15500 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives voted 237 to 140 to table the impeachment motion against President Donald Trump, with all Republican members supporting the motion [2] - The White House indicated that the Trump administration will continue dialogue regarding Ukraine, with potential participation in peace talks if they are productive [2] - Analysts from First Abu Dhabi Bank noted that the U.S. interest rate outlook is at a critical turning point, with expectations that any additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will not exceed 50 basis points [2]

周一，白银价格一度触及每盎司58.84美元的历史新高，延续了上周五近6%的涨幅，并已连续六个交易日上涨。今年以来，白新价值几乎翻了一 番，其涨幅远超黄金约60%的强劲表现。 这一轮凌厉涨势的背后，是交易员对全球供应持续紧张的投机性押注。当比特币及加密货币市场整体下挫时，实体白银的逼空格局正在上演。继 数月前伦敦市场出现历史性挤兑后，如今压力已转移至其他中心。 市场参与者正密切关注这一轮由中国库存告急、强劲工业需求、投机热潮以及潜在贸易政策风险共同导演的"完美风暴"。在全球主要库存中心难 以提供有效缓冲的背景下，白银市场的脆弱性正被放大，任何新的冲击都可能引发更剧烈的价格波动。 上海库存告急，全球短缺"多米诺骨牌"倒下 一场由实体供应短缺引发的风暴正席卷全球白银市场。在上海期货交易所（SHFE）库存骤降至近十年低点之际，白银价格接力黄金的涨势，飙升 至历史新高。 Wind数据显示，11月24日当周上海黄金交易所白银库存下降58.83吨，降至715.875吨，创下2016年7月3日以来新低。11月25日，该库库存虽勉强 累库21.3吨，但仍然处于近十年低位。 金瑞期货分析师Zijie Wu指出，"紧张源于对伦敦的 ...

Market Overview - Cryptocurrency market experienced extreme volatility, with Bitcoin dropping from $122,000 to just above $100,000, then rebounding to $114,000, while Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw significant fluctuations [1] - In the past 24 hours, 180,000 traders faced liquidation, resulting in a loss of $632 million, highlighting the speculative nature of the market [1] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) price: $114,835, up 3.64% in 24 hours [2] - Ethereum (ETH) price: $4,115.64, up 10.14% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $126.4 billion, an increase of 33.28% [2] - Other notable cryptocurrencies include Solana (SOL) at $195.77 (+10.49%), XRP at $2.5133 (+5.08%), and Dogecoin (DOGE) at $0.20596 (+11.53%) [2] Regulatory Environment - The cryptocurrency market is facing increasing scrutiny from regulators, with past incidents like the LUNA crash leading to significant losses for investors [4] - Regulatory actions are seen as inevitable, with the market being compared to a casino, where risks are high and often unpredictable [4] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged to a record high of $4,060, driven by rising risk aversion amid global economic uncertainty [3] - The increase in gold ETF holdings and central bank purchases indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October is at 97.8%, reflecting market expectations for monetary easing [3] - However, mixed signals from Fed officials suggest potential volatility in future policy decisions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of over $3,800 per ounce, is driven by a combination of political instability in the U.S., expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and systemic gold purchases by global central banks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The political deadlock in Washington, particularly the breakdown of negotiations between the Trump administration and congressional leaders, has heightened risk aversion in capital markets, propelling gold prices [1]. - The London gold market is experiencing a rare phenomenon where traders are rapidly transporting gold bars from the Bank of England to New York to fill physical gaps in the COMEX futures market, indicating deep-seated anxieties about the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][3]. - The gold ETF market in China has seen a significant increase, with total assets reaching 160 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor confidence in gold as a financial asset [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are a key driver, with market predictions showing a 90% chance of a cut in October and a 65% chance in December, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, have shifted gold's demand from short-term hedging to long-term strategic allocation [2]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a projected net purchase of 1,089.4 tons in 2024, indicating a structural shift in gold's role from an investment asset to a strategic reserve [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Imbalances - The global supply of gold is constrained, with new discoveries limited and recycling of gold affected by high prices, leading to a structural gap between demand and supply [4]. - The total demand for gold is expected to reach a record 4,974 tons in Q4 2024, while supply is only projected to grow by 1.2%, exacerbating the price increase [4]. - A significant movement of gold worth $82 billion from London to New York has led to a spike in gold leasing rates, indicating tight physical supply [3][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The market sentiment is mixed, with institutional investors showing strong confidence in gold, as evidenced by hedge funds holding a record net long position of $73 billion, while some retail investors are taking profits [3]. - Technical indicators suggest that gold is in an overbought territory, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 78, indicating potential for a correction if prices fall below $3,165 per ounce [4]. - The divergence in views on gold's future, with some believing its safe-haven properties are diminished while others see long-term support from central bank purchases, reflects the complex dynamics at play in the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - Bank wealth management serves as a common investment method, providing investors with opportunities to participate in financial markets and achieve asset preservation and appreciation. However, understanding the common risks associated with bank wealth management is crucial for investors [1] Market Risk - Market risk is a significant risk faced by bank wealth management products, influenced by changes in financial markets such as interest rates, exchange rates, and stock and bond market fluctuations. Interest rate risk is a key component; when market interest rates rise, the attractiveness of fixed-income wealth management products declines, potentially lowering their prices. Conversely, when market interest rates fall, the performance of wealth management products may improve. Exchange rate risk mainly affects wealth management products involving foreign exchange, where fluctuations can lead to losses during currency conversion. Additionally, volatility in stock and bond markets can impact related wealth management products, particularly those invested in stocks or equity funds, which may face asset value depreciation during stock market downturns [2] Credit Risk - Credit risk refers to the risk of default or deterioration in the credit status of the entities in which wealth management products invest, leading to potential losses of expected returns or principal for investors. Funds from bank wealth management products may be directed towards various entities, such as corporations and government agencies. If a corporation performs poorly and cannot repay its debts, or if a government faces fiscal difficulties and fails to meet its debt obligations, the returns on wealth management products may be negatively affected. Banks conduct credit assessments and screenings of investment targets when issuing wealth management products, but even with rigorous evaluations, credit risk cannot be entirely eliminated [3] Liquidity Risk - Liquidity risk manifests when investors cannot timely liquidate wealth management products when needed or suffer losses during the liquidation process. Some bank wealth management products have fixed investment terms, preventing investors from redeeming funds early during the product's duration. Even if early redemption is allowed, it may incur fees or be redeemed at prices lower than the purchase price, reducing actual returns for investors. Furthermore, during periods of overall market liquidity stress, banks may face funding pressures, making it difficult to meet investors' early redemption requests, thereby exacerbating liquidity risk [4] Operational Risk - Operational risk encompasses losses arising from inadequate or problematic internal processes, human errors, system failures, or external events during the operation of wealth management products. For instance, bank staff may fail to adequately explain the risk terms and return structures of products during the sales process, leading to misjudgment by investors. In the operational phase, if a bank's internal risk management system malfunctions, it may miss optimal investment opportunities or fail to effectively control risks. Additionally, external factors such as cyberattacks or natural disasters can disrupt normal bank operations, negatively impacting the investment returns of wealth management products [5] Policy Risk - Policy risk arises from changes in national macroeconomic policies and financial regulatory policies. Adjustments in government fiscal and monetary policies can have widespread effects on financial markets. For example, changes in tax policies may affect the return levels of wealth management products, while loose monetary policies may lead to declining market interest rates, impacting the yields of fixed-income wealth management products. Changes in financial regulatory policies are also significant; adjustments by regulatory agencies regarding banks' business scopes and risk management requirements may compel banks to modify the design and investment strategies of wealth management products, potentially affecting their return and risk characteristics, leading to discrepancies between actual investment returns and expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - Trust products occupy a unique position in the financial market, and their yield stability is a key concern for many investors. Understanding the factors influencing the stability of trust product yields requires a comprehensive analysis [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Affecting Yield Stability - Trust products are based on trust and are a property management system where investors entrust funds to trust companies for management and operation, targeting specific projects such as infrastructure, business operations, and real estate development [1]. - Credit risk is a significant factor in assessing the yield stability of trust products. The credit risk primarily depends on the credit status and repayment ability of the financing party. A financially sound and stable financing party can ensure timely and full payment of yields, thus enhancing yield stability [1]. - Market risk also significantly impacts the yield stability of trust products. Changes in the macroeconomic environment, industry development cycles, and interest rate fluctuations can cause yield volatility. During economic prosperity, trust products often achieve better yields, while economic downturns can adversely affect yield stability [2]. - Policy risk is an unavoidable factor as well. Different industries are affected by policies to varying degrees. For instance, strict real estate regulations can limit financing and development progress for real estate trust projects, impacting their yields [2].