Report Title - Log Weekly Report: New Zealand's Shipment Resumes, Spot Market Closed Before the Festival [1] Report Date - February 11, 2026 [1] Report Author - Jiang Zhou Xilin [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the log market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with prices remaining stable; the 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains and may remain stable after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [4][9] - In the medium term, there is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9] Key Points by Section 1. Log Industry Data - Supply - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining stable compared with the previous period; the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, showing an increase [4] - **Futures Price**: As of the close on February 10, the main log contract 2603 closed at 773.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a decline. The FOB price in New Zealand increased in February, raising the procurement cost of traders [4] - **Arrival Volume**: From February 9 - 15, 2026, the expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports is 8, an increase of 4 compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 100%; the total arrival volume is about 264,000 cubic meters, an increase of 117,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 80%. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the actual number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 4, a decrease of 3 compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 43%; the total arrival volume was about 147,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 71,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 33% [4] - **Annual Import Volume**: In December 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs decreased year - on - year in 2025 [4] 2. Log Industry Data - Inventory - **Inventory Quantity**: As of February 10, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.38 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.02 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the North American wood inventory was 110,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared with last week [6] - **Inventory Change Reason**: The total inventory in Jiangsu has been continuously decreasing. The main reasons are the tight supply of some specifications of port spot (6 - meter medium A and small A), the low arrival volume of radiata pine logs at Taicang Port, and the stockpiling behavior of some processing plants before the Spring Festival, resulting in a structural shortage at Taicang Port since the end of December, especially the shortage of 6 - meter radiata pine logs. In addition, driven by the price difference of 60 yuan/cubic meter between Shandong and Jiangsu, at least 6 New Zealand log ships diverted to Jiangsu, resulting in a significant decrease in the arrival volume at Rizhao Port and a low inventory of 5.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs [6] 3. Log Industry Data - Demand - **Outbound Volume**: From February 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 51,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 16.53% compared with last week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 15.68% compared with last week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 12,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 18.87% compared with last week [6] - **Demand Characteristics**: The downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the log outbound volume decreases. Previously, the demand showed a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the prices generally increased due to the tight inventory and pre - festival stockpiling demand, while in Shandong, the prices remained stable due to the large number of ships. Overall, the short - term price increase of radiata pine logs in Rizhao is mainly due to concerns about the reduction of New Zealand supply and the tight inventory of some specifications caused by ship diversion, with little actual change [6] 4. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook - **Import Structure**: China's import of radiata pine shows a significant characteristic of resource centralization, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing, and domestic demand is accelerating to focus on cost - effective timber species. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source continues to accumulate [7] - **Policy Impact**: The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. Log downstream products and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between construction wood squares and coke is as high as 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market [7] - **Trade Agreement**: The Sino - US Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby accelerating log destocking. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback, and it is expected that the log market will fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [7] - **Customs Policy**: The General Administration of Customs has decided to revoke the announcement on suspending the import of US logs. In the short term, the total volume of US logs that can arrive at the port and complete customs clearance will still be limited [7] - **Natural Disaster**: Landslides occurred in the Tauranga area of New Zealand's North Island, which is expected to affect local logging operations and delay the shipment of some ships. Although the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal this week, the current arrival volume in China is still at a low level [7] - **Exchange Policy**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced the suspension of the delivery business of log designated truck - board delivery sites at several companies [7] 5. Log Industry Data - Strategy and Suggestions - **Historical Price Trend**: From July to early September 2025, affected by the shortage of some specifications of timber, the increase in FOB quotes, and the stockpiling demand caused by the approaching delivery of the 2509 contract, the futures market had a significant rebound, and the spot price also strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a significant differentiation trend of near - strong and far - weak before and after entering the delivery month [9] - **Short - term Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the demand shows a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the supply shortage situation will gradually ease as the diverted ships arrive at the port, and the price increase momentum may slow down; in Shandong, the demand is stable, and Shandong processing plants are expected to have a concentrated holiday in early February. The 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains. In the short term, it may maintain a stable state after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [9] - **Medium - term Outlook**: There is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the log market are relatively healthy, with low inventory, high daily average outbound volume, and firm spot prices. However, the recovery of shipping volume may suppress the subsequent upward space [2][6]. - The 05 contract is difficult to evaluate before its expiration. From the perspective of the monthly spread structure, short - selling does not have an advantage at present. Future decisions should be based on post - holiday inventory and the firmness of spot prices [7]. - The strategy of going long on dips can be considered, but due to the lack of liquidity, participation should be cautious [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 30th, the national log inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, hitting a new low, while the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, remaining at a relatively high level. It is expected that the outbound volume will significantly decline next week as downstream factories start to have the Spring Festival holiday [2]. - In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine timber in Lanshan area continued to rise last week, and the prices of 3.9 - meter medium A and 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan also increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Traders in Shandong offered relatively firm prices [2]. - Overseas shipping has changed. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were sent from New Zealand, 9 more than the previous period, indicating that the short - term shipping disruptions in New Zealand have basically ended, and the inventory problem may be alleviated in the future [2]. - The announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in the middle of the week showed that most car - board delivery warehouses in the Yangtze River Delta region (excluding Shandong) suspended delivery business, which reduced the implicit cost of buyers taking delivery and boosted their willingness to take delivery on the futures market, thus increasing the valuation of the futures market [2]. - The overseas offer remained at $112, the same as the previous period [2]. - On the futures market, there was a trend of upward movement last week. The 03 contract reached a maximum of 813 yuan per cubic meter in the middle of the week, but on Friday, there was a significant reduction in positions and the price dropped to 784 yuan per cubic meter. During the transition of the main contract, the overall position was insufficient, and the liquidity was poor. Large - scale position increases or decreases would have a significant impact on the futures price [2][4]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: After breaking through the previous high, the price fell back. The position was low, and the liquidity continued to weaken [8]. - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis [9]. - Monthly spread strategy: Exit the 3 - 5 positive spread and wait and see. The monthly spread needs to observe subsequent policy adjustments [9]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - On December 25th, it was proposed to sell lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800. On January 29th, the put position was moved to 775, and on February 3rd, 2026, it was already profitable [10]. - On January 17th, it was proposed to go long on the 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower edge of the 03 - 05 range, and on January 26th, it was proposed to take profit [11]. - On January 24th, it was proposed to conduct range trading between 750 - 795, and on January 30th, it was revised to 775 - 810 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short log futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 810 - 820 [10]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 760 - 765 [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The inventory reached a new low; the new announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased the buyers' willingness to take delivery; the spot price in Lanshan area increased, raising the valuation [12][16]. - **Negative Information**: Previously, buyers' willingness to take delivery was low, and sellers' delivery costs were high (this situation has been corrected); the shipping from New Zealand has recovered [13][14]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis information for different specifications of logs in various ports [14]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Funds continued to reduce positions and leave the market, and the current liquidity was insufficient [15]. 3.3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - Regarding the 3 - 5 monthly spread, it is currently recommended to wait and see. The 03 contract is fundamentally stronger than the 05 contract due to various positive factors mentioned above. The 3 - 5 monthly spread once reached 10 in the middle of the week and then fell back to - 4 on Friday [18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 810 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, while the warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong is around 812 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyers' willingness to take delivery, calculated at a 10% discount on the spot price, is around 770 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan). When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously recovering. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta region has significantly improved the recent profit [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From February 7th to 16th, it is expected that 9 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 340,000 cubic meters. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were shipped from New Zealand [31]. - As of January 30th, the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 100 cubic meters, indicating that the demand exceeded expectations. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and subsequent ship arrivals, it is expected that the inventory will start to accumulate [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The valuation of the log industry has an upward - driving force. The inventory of logs in China has reached a new low, and the daily average outbound volume has remained at a high level. The spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong regions have increased, and the downstream wood - square prices have also risen, which may lead to an increase in the cost of the lowest warehouse receipts in Shandong. However, in the long - term, there are no conditions for a significant unilateral upward movement, and the supply - demand structure contradiction is not prominent [1][2]. - The short - term trading logic is based on low inventory, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta, and the impact on New Zealand's log shipments, making it difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The long - term trading expectation is that the overall supply - demand structure is relatively stable, and the profit - making effect will adjust the inventory difference between regions [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 23, the national log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters (- 80,000), reaching a new low. The daily average outbound volume was 68,600 cubic meters (+ 2,000), remaining at a high level. In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine wood in Lanshan area increased to 1,100 yuan per cubic meter (+ 20). The price increase of downstream wood squares may drive up the spot price of radiata pine in Lanshan and the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. In the Yangtze River Delta, the prices continued to rise last week. From January 22 - 28, the number of log - shipping vessels from New Zealand decreased by 2. The external - market quotation remained at 112 US dollars [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market broke through the range and rose, but the trading volume was low, and the liquidity had not recovered. On Friday, it opened high and went high, breaking through the upper limit of the sideways - oscillation range and reaching a new high in nearly two months [8]. - **Basis, Calendar - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. For the calendar - spread strategy, the 3 - 5 positive spread should be exited and observed, as the follow - up delivery - related policies may be adjusted [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Past strategies included selling lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800 (proposed on December 25, with lg2603 - C - 800 taking profit and the put position moving to 775 on January 29); doing a 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower limit of the 03 - 05 range (proposed on January 17 and taking profit on January 26); and conducting range operations between 750 - 795 (proposed on January 24 and revised to 775 - 810 on January 30) [12]. - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis of different log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang on January 30, 2026 [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Factors affecting the market include low inventory, reduced Christmas - season shipments from New Zealand, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong, and rising prices of downstream wood squares in Lanshan. On the delivery side, the buyer's willingness to take delivery is low, and the seller's delivery cost is high. There are also changes in the delivery game in Chongqing, and Japanese cedar imports continue [17]. - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: After low - volatility oscillation this week, the market showed an upward trend on Thursday and Friday. The overall position remained low, around 10,000 lots, and the capital attention was not high [18]. - **Basis and Calendar - Spread Structure**: For the 3 - 5 calendar spread, it is recommended to exit and observe. In the short term, the 03 contract is stronger than the 05 contract, but the safety margin for further upward movement is insufficient [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta is around 810 yuan (+ 6), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, and in Shandong, it is around 800 yuan (+ 10), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyer's willingness to take delivery is around 760 yuan (+ 10) after a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price. When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [27]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously repaired. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta has significantly improved the recent profit [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - From January 31 to February 9, it is expected that 9 vessels will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 168,000 cubic meters. As of January 23, the daily average outbound volume was 61,800 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 cubic meters. The demand exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The New Zealand heavy rainfall and floods have caused short - term shipment delays, affecting the supply of logs to China. The log market shows a complex situation with price fluctuations, inventory changes, and demand differences between regions. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, while in the medium - term, the market will enter a traditional off - season around the Spring Festival in 2026, and the focus will be on factors such as the resumption rate, real - estate policies, cost changes, and demand recovery [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 740 yuan/cubic meter, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, showing an increase. The radiata pine log prices in Jiangsu and Chongqing markets have risen, and the main log contract 2603 first declined and then rebounded. - Futures: As of January 27th, the main log contract 2603 closed at 776 yuan/cubic meter, showing a rebound. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter compared to late December 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% [2]. Log Industry Data - Supply - The New Zealand weather has led to short - term shipment delays. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China from January 26th to February 1st, 2026, is 7 ships, a decrease of 1 ship compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 13%, and the arrival volume is about 219,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 27,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 11%. The actual arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports from January 19th to January 25th, 2026, was 8 ships, a decrease of 3 ships compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 27%, and the arrival volume was about 246,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 123,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 33%. In December 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, China's total coniferous log imports decreased year - on - year in 2025 [2]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of January 27th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to last week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.12 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. The total inventory in Jiangsu has been declining continuously, mainly due to the tight supply of some specifications of port spot. The price difference between Shandong and Jiangsu has expanded, leading to some ships diverting to Jiangsu and a significant decrease in the arrival at Rizhao Market [3]. Log Industry Data - Demand - From January 19th to January 25th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,800 cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% compared to last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,100 cubic meters, an increase of 11.42% compared to last week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 19,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 14.91% compared to last week. Downstream demand is suppressed by seasonal factors. The demand shows a north - south differentiation. The price of radiata pine logs in the Rizhao area has increased in the short - term due to concerns about reduced supply from New Zealand and tight inventories of some specifications, while the demand side is weakly stable with little short - term change [3]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows a significant resource - concentration characteristic, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. The anti - involution policy has an indirect boosting effect in the off - season. The May Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement is beneficial to wood product exports. The resumption of importing US logs has been announced, but the short - term arrival volume will be limited. The New Zealand heavy rainfall and floods may affect local logging and shipping [4]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - In the past, from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, but then entered a low - level oscillation due to weak real - estate demand. In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as foreign quotes and pre - Spring Festival demand contraction. In the medium - term, around the Spring Festival in 2026, the market will enter an off - season, and attention should be paid to factors such as the resumption rate, real - estate policies, cost changes, and demand recovery [5]. Log Supply Source - Radiata pine mainly comes from New Zealand, and fir and spruce mainly come from Europe [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the leading stocks have lost momentum. The market is dull, with a continuous oscillatory adjustment after a peak. The trading volume has been declining since last week's peak. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals. There are relatively more ship - buying activities recently, leading to short - term arrival pressure. The spot price has changed little, and the pressure from the delivery goods will be gradually digested by the market. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on the warehouse receipt cost in Taicang, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to the warehouse receipt cost in Chongqing. Industry customers who are not optimistic about the future market can consider hedging after August to lock in the futures profit and quickly recover funds through delivery. According to the latest data from Steel Union, the CFR quotation remains unchanged at $114. There is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. Due to cost support, the strategy can consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2] 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 850 - 875 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to order situations, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The commodity market is dull after a peak, with the trading volume declining. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant fundamental contradiction. There is short - term arrival pressure, and the delivery pressure will be digested. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on Taicang's warehouse receipt cost, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to Chongqing's cost. Industry customers can consider hedging after August. The CFR quotation remains unchanged, and there is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. A strategy of selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time can be considered [3] 3.4 Spot and Basis - On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in various ports (such as 3.9 large (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) in Taicang Port, etc.) and their corresponding basis values are presented. Some spot prices have no change, while some have small fluctuations. The basis values vary according to different specifications and ports [5][8] 3.5利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; the import cost continues to rise; the overall commodity sentiment has improved; and there is an impact from funds [7] 3.6利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - The peak season fails to show strong performance; the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [7] 3.7 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous week and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous week but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous week and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9] - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the average daily log delivery volume at ports was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous week and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous week and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous week and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9] - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous week. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous week [9] - **Main Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of some log specifications (such as 3.9 medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port) showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [9] - **External Market Quotation**: As of August 1, 2025, the CFR quotation was $114, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The commodity market has significant fluctuations, while the log market remains relatively stable with a 6 - day consecutive reduction in positions. The main contract of logs closed at over 830 (+2), with a reduction of 164 lots and a remaining position of 24,000 lots. The subsequent log market is expected to have low - volatility oscillations, and the current valuation is slightly high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction The log market has experienced 6 consecutive days of position - reduction, and the commodity market fluctuates greatly, while the log market is quiet [3]. 3.4 Market Conditions - The main contract closed at over 830 (+2), with a reduction of 164 lots and a remaining position of 24,000 lots [4]. - In the spot market, the price of 4 - meter small A in Taicang increased by 10 yuan/m³, and the price of 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan decreased by 10 yuan/m³. The spot price of the delivery goods in Taicang increased by 10 yuan. There are no significant changes in the fundamentals. Newly registered warehouse receipts will be cancelled by the end of July if not matched for delivery, and they will not have a significant impact. Future attention should be paid to new warehouse receipts in August [5]. 3.5 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Importers are willing to support prices jointly due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market is warming up [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the shipping volume of foreign suppliers continues to increase [8]. 3.6 Log Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Update Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiata pine import volume | 2025 - 06 - 30 | 1.61 billion m³ | - 800,000 m³ | 35.3% | Monthly | m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 3.29 billion m³ | 700,000 m³ | 4.1% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 1,932,000 m³ | 38,000 m³ | 6.0% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 1,107,569 m³ | - 7,431 m³ | 33.9% | Weekly | m³ | | Demand | Average daily log port outbound volume | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 624,000 m³ | 36,000 m³ | 23.3% | Weekly | m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 336,000 m³ | - 17,000 m³ | 31.8% | Weekly | m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 232,000 m³ | 47,000 m³ | 32.6% | Weekly | m³ | | Profit | Radiata pine import profit | 2025 - 07 - 25 | - 83 yuan/m³ | 0 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 07 - 25 | - 44 yuan/m³ | - 1 yuan/m³ | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | Main Spot | 3.9 - meter medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 740 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 8.6% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 4 - meter medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 760 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 7.3% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 5.9 - meter medium (5.8A) in Rizhao Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 770 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 7.2% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 6 - meter medium (5.8A) in Taicang Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 770 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 9.4% | Daily | yuan/m³ | [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Song Jipeng (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0016598) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Log Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 740 - 820 [2] - Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling): 16.28% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 67.4% [2] - Hedging Strategy for High Import Volume and High Inventory: Short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Hedging Strategy for Low Standing Inventory: Long log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Strategy - Current Situation: The position is awkward, the direction is unclear, and trading is challenging. The main driver of the current price decline is the disposal of delivery goods, and it's hard to judge how long it will take to digest them. There is a peak - season expectation and rising import costs in the future [3] - Strategy: Rest, observe, and wait [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors - Bullish Factor: Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses [4] Group 5: Bearish Factors - Bearish Factor 1: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price [5] - Bearish Factor 2: The continuous increase in foreign shipments [5] Group 6: Spot and Basis - Spot Price and Basis Data: Presented for different specifications, ports, and dates, with the calculation formula for the basis (converted) provided [5][8][9] Group 7: Log Data Overview Supply - Radiation Pine Import Volume (May 31, 2025): 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [9] Inventory - Port Inventory (China, July 11, 2025): 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [9] - Port Inventory (Shandong, July 11, 2025): 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4% [9] - Port Inventory (Jiangsu, July 11, 2025): 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [9] - Log Port Daily Average Outbound Volume (July 11, 2025): 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0% [9] Demand - Daily Average Outbound Volume (Shandong, July 11, 2025): 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [9] - Daily Average Outbound Volume (Jiangsu, July 11, 2025): 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9] Profit - Radiation Pine Import Profit (July 18, 2025): - 82 yuan/m³, no week - on - week change [9] - Spruce Import Profit (July 18, 2025): - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [9] Main Spot - Spot Prices for Different Specifications and Ports on July 15, 2025 are provided, along with their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [9]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of lumber futures in China aims to mitigate price volatility risks faced by timber enterprises, particularly in the context of high dependence on imports and fluctuating demand from the construction industry [1][2]. Market Overview - The real estate market's cyclical downturn has significantly impacted the demand for construction timber, leading to a nearly 48% decrease in the import volume of softwood logs from 49.88 million cubic meters in 2021 to 26.12 million cubic meters in 2024 [2]. - Increased environmental awareness has shifted the demand structure in the timber market, with industries like furniture manufacturing favoring sustainable wood options [2]. - Price volatility has exacerbated operational challenges for timber enterprises, complicating cost control for importers and squeezing profit margins for processing companies [2]. Measurement Standards - There are inconsistencies in measurement standards across different regions in China, leading to discrepancies in the volume of timber between futures and spot markets [3]. - The northern and southern markets have different practices regarding timber length and diameter measurements, which can affect pricing and cost estimation for downstream processing companies [3]. Futures Hedging Cases - Case 1: A timber processing company successfully executed a "futures to spot" transaction, allowing them to secure raw material supply and control procurement costs by facilitating early delivery of timber [4][5]. - Case 2: A large timber trading company utilized futures to hedge against price declines, locking in a sales price of 865.5 yuan per cubic meter for their timber, thus avoiding potential losses from market depreciation [6][8]. Implementation and Training - The futures company provided tailored training and support to clients, including risk assessments and mock delivery exercises, to enhance their understanding of the delivery process and compliance [7]. - A detailed delivery plan was developed for the trading company, considering various costs associated with delivery, which helped streamline the process and reduce storage costs [7]. Conclusion - The successful completion of the first lumber futures delivery marks a significant step towards maturity in the market, emphasizing the need for industry participants to adopt standardized practices and a hedging mindset to navigate price fluctuations effectively [8].