Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Although the supply side of PX has tightened significantly, the supply recovery of some PX plants is earlier than expected, and the marginal supply increase has led to a decline in the overall destocking volume of PX. However, the spot market is still short of goods, so in the short term, the PX price and the bottom of PXN will still be supported. In the medium - term supply - demand pattern, PX will still be in the destocking rhythm in the next few months [2]. - The PTA market is rising. Although downstream polyester factories are reducing production, it cannot change the destocking state of PTA. The spot basis of PTA is strong, supporting the spot market. In the short term, the PTA spot price mainly follows the cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production - reduction statements of large polyester manufacturers [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a narrow - range shock in raw materials and futures. The supply - side quotations vary, and the downstream terminal replenishment intention is limited. The market trading is somewhat cold. Recently, the industry's start - up has declined slightly, and the supply in some areas is tight [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - The futures settlement price of WTI crude oil on May 23, 2025, was $61.53 per barrel, up 0.54% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on May 26, 2025, was $64.74 per barrel, down 0.06% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on May 26, 2025, was $566.13 per ton, up 1.03% from the previous value; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on May 23, 2025, was $707.50 per ton, up 0.43% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,724 yuan per ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,748 yuan per ton, up 0.47% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of PTA in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 4,875 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,913 yuan per ton, up 0.68% from the previous value [1]. - **PX Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 0.33% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,702 yuan per ton, up 0.48% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 6,615 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price (middle price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $835 per ton, up 0.97% from the previous value [1]. - **PR Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,006 yuan per ton, up 0.30% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, up 0.40% from the previous value [1]. - The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market on May 26, 2025, was 6,030 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; in the South China market, it was 6,100 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Downstream Product Price** - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY on May 26, 2025, was 8,900 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY68D on May 26, 2025, was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on May 26, 2025, was 6,550 yuan per ton, down 0.38% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,940 yuan per ton, up 0.34% from the previous value [2]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2]. Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **PX** - The start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain on May 26, 2025, was 79.18%, up 1.89 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The marginal supply of PX has increased, but the spot is still short. In the short term, the price has support, and it will still be in the destocking rhythm in the medium term [2]. - **PTA** - The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories on May 26, 2025, was 79.28%, up 1.03 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - PTA is in the destocking state, and the spot basis is strong. In the short term, the price mainly follows the cost side, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction of polyester manufacturers [2]. - **Polyester** - The PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories on May 26, 2025, was 90.75%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous value; the load rate of bottle - chip factories was 84.19%, down 0.94 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a cold trading atmosphere, with a slight decline in start - up and tight supply in some areas [2]. - The sales rate of polyester filament on May 26, 2025, was 36%, up 2 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester chips was 65%, up 26 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Trading Strategies - PTA is running in a range recently. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,724 yuan per ton (- 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.39 million lots [2]. - The PX2509 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (0.06%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,970 lots. It is expected that PX will run weakly [2]. - The PR2507 contract closed at 6,006 yuan per ton (0.10%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,900 lots. It is expected that PR will run weakly [2].