Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Although the supply side of PX has tightened significantly, the supply recovery of some PX plants is earlier than expected, and the marginal supply increase has led to a decline in the overall destocking volume of PX. However, the spot market is still short of goods, so in the short term, the PX price and the bottom of PXN will still be supported. In the medium - term supply - demand pattern, PX will still be in the destocking rhythm in the next few months [2]. - The PTA market is rising. Although downstream polyester factories are reducing production, it cannot change the destocking state of PTA. The spot basis of PTA is strong, supporting the spot market. In the short term, the PTA spot price mainly follows the cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production - reduction statements of large polyester manufacturers [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a narrow - range shock in raw materials and futures. The supply - side quotations vary, and the downstream terminal replenishment intention is limited. The market trading is somewhat cold. Recently, the industry's start - up has declined slightly, and the supply in some areas is tight [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - The futures settlement price of WTI crude oil on May 23, 2025, was $61.53 per barrel, up 0.54% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on May 26, 2025, was $64.74 per barrel, down 0.06% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on May 26, 2025, was $566.13 per ton, up 1.03% from the previous value; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on May 23, 2025, was $707.50 per ton, up 0.43% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,724 yuan per ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,748 yuan per ton, up 0.47% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of PTA in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 4,875 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,913 yuan per ton, up 0.68% from the previous value [1]. - **PX Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 0.33% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,702 yuan per ton, up 0.48% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 6,615 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price (middle price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $835 per ton, up 0.97% from the previous value [1]. - **PR Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,006 yuan per ton, up 0.30% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, up 0.40% from the previous value [1]. - The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market on May 26, 2025, was 6,030 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; in the South China market, it was 6,100 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Downstream Product Price** - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY on May 26, 2025, was 8,900 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY68D on May 26, 2025, was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on May 26, 2025, was 6,550 yuan per ton, down 0.38% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,940 yuan per ton, up 0.34% from the previous value [2]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2]. Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **PX** - The start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain on May 26, 2025, was 79.18%, up 1.89 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The marginal supply of PX has increased, but the spot is still short. In the short term, the price has support, and it will still be in the destocking rhythm in the medium term [2]. - **PTA** - The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories on May 26, 2025, was 79.28%, up 1.03 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - PTA is in the destocking state, and the spot basis is strong. In the short term, the price mainly follows the cost side, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction of polyester manufacturers [2]. - **Polyester** - The PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories on May 26, 2025, was 90.75%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous value; the load rate of bottle - chip factories was 84.19%, down 0.94 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a cold trading atmosphere, with a slight decline in start - up and tight supply in some areas [2]. - The sales rate of polyester filament on May 26, 2025, was 36%, up 2 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester chips was 65%, up 26 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Trading Strategies - PTA is running in a range recently. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,724 yuan per ton (- 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.39 million lots [2]. - The PX2509 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (0.06%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,970 lots. It is expected that PX will run weakly [2]. - The PR2507 contract closed at 6,006 yuan per ton (0.10%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,900 lots. It is expected that PR will run weakly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].