Core Viewpoint - The PTA spot basis experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, with a notable increase in the first half of the year followed by a decline in the second half. The average PTA spot basis for 2025 was 8 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from 2024, marking a 130% increase and a shift from negative to positive basis [2][12]. Group 1: First Half Performance - The PTA spot basis saw its largest increase since July 2023, reaching a peak in June 2025, with a reference futures contract premium of 295 yuan/ton on June 18 and an average basis of 237 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 40.24% and a year-on-year increase of 717.24% [5][14]. - This surge was driven by multiple factors, including concentrated maintenance of PTA facilities from February to June, leading to inventory reduction and a seller's market during May and June [5][14]. Group 2: Second Half Performance - In the second half of 2025, the PTA spot basis declined due to a shift in market supply and demand expectations, with new PTA production capacity coming online and regional supply becoming sufficient [15]. - The new capacity included 250,000 tons starting trial runs in June and an additional 320,000 tons coming online in July and August, resulting in a significant drop in the spot basis by 84.39% month-on-month in July, coinciding with a record high production of PTA [15]. Group 3: Short-term Expectations - For January and February 2026, a seasonal decline in demand is anticipated, leading to an increase in inventory and a decrease in the spot basis. The average operating rate of terminal weaving machines is expected to drop to around 42%, a 29 percentage point decrease from the previous two months [7][17]. - It is estimated that inventory will accumulate by approximately 500,000 tons during this period, negatively impacting the PTA spot basis [7][17]. Group 4: Mid-term Expectations - From March to May 2026, a recovery in demand is expected, driven by the seasonal increase in operating rates, which are projected to rise to around 74% [8][18]. - The introduction of new polyester production capacity is also expected to boost PTA consumption, with an estimated additional consumption of 12,000 tons per month from 155,000 tons of new polyester capacity planned for early 2026 [8][18]. Group 5: Uncertainties and Market Sentiment - The average processing fee for PTA from July to November 2025 was around 200 yuan/ton, indicating potential production losses and leading to unplanned maintenance of PTA facilities, which could positively affect the spot basis [9][10][18]. - Despite expectations for a strong market in March to May 2026, the sentiment for January remains bearish due to anticipated inventory accumulation, with traders showing low confidence in December [19].

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is experiencing a potential peak phase, influenced by both cost support and inventory reduction, but is facing downward pressure from falling crude oil prices and rising inventory expectations for January-February 2024 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent PTA prices reached a high not seen since early September, driven by cost support and inventory reduction efforts [1]. - The operating rate of PTA production facilities decreased by 4 percentage points from November 10 to November 20, while downstream polyester operating rates only fell by about 1 percentage point, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [1][3]. - Concerns over reduced PX imports due to increased Korean exports to the U.S. have led to a temporary strengthening of the PX market, with a reported decrease of approximately 20,000 tons in PX exports from Korea to China from November 1 to 20 compared to October [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Despite four months of continuous inventory reduction, the spot market for PTA remains under pressure, with significant backwardation against futures prices due to weak demand and high inventory expectations for early 2024 [4]. - The traditional demand slump in January-February is expected to lead to an accumulation of 830,000 to 900,000 tons of PTA inventory, further impacting market dynamics [4]. - The average PTA processing fee from July to November was reported at 198 yuan per ton, indicating a production loss situation, which may lead to unplanned production cuts or maintenance of PTA facilities in the future [3]. Group 3: External Influences - The crude oil market is expected to face oversupply as OPEC+ plans to implement a joint production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting in October 2025, with a gradual increase in production in the last quarter of 2024 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, could impact crude oil supply, as Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves globally, which may influence oil prices positively if conflicts arise [6]. - Overall, the upward trend driven by cost factors in the PTA market is likely to conclude, with demand weakening and inventory levels rising becoming the dominant factors moving forward [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 3, geopolitical risks in the international crude oil market increased, and the wildfires in Canada provided some support for oil prices, but the OPEC+ production increase plan suppressed oil prices. Multiple PX units restarted or increased their loads recently, increasing supply and reducing the overall destocking volume of PX. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, the market sentiment was affected. However, the spot market remained short of goods, so in the short term, the bottom of PX prices and PXN would still be supported. In the medium - term, PX would continue to destock in the next few months [2]. - PTA prices declined. Although geopolitical issues pushed up crude oil prices, the atmosphere of domestic bulk chemicals was weak. The destocking speed of PTA slowed down, and the spot basis weakened. Polyester new capacity ran smoothly with high operating rates, having a good rigid demand for PTA. In the short term, PTA spot prices would mainly follow the cost side. The operating load of polyester filament further declined, and the overall market sales were average, with most factories still having inventory pressure. During the tariff suspension period, the foreign trade market showed more quotations and samples, and some traders said there were large potential orders [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures weakened. The supply side of bottle - chips mostly kept their quotes stable, and the downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was low, resulting in a stalemate in market transactions. Recently, some units in East China were under maintenance, the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased, but the overall market supply was still abundant [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On June 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.41 per barrel, up 4.31% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $65.63 per barrel, up 2.71%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $561.63 per ton, up 0.56%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $699.00 per ton, down 1.34%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.06% [1]. - **PTA Products**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,628 yuan per ton, down 1.53%; the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton, down 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,840 yuan per ton, down 2.02%; the settlement price was 4,888 yuan per ton, down 1.05%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,915 yuan per ton, down 0.55%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,905 yuan per ton, down 0.71%, and the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $634.00 per ton on June 2, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 180 yuan per ton, a decrease of 36 yuan, and the basis was 277 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan [1]. - **PX Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 6,636 yuan per ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 7,000 yuan per ton, up 6.74%; the settlement price was 6,822 yuan per ton, up 0.56%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,857 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Taiwan, China) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.25%, and the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB South Korea) was $799.00 per ton, down 2.32%. The PXN spread was $262.38 per ton, down 7.23%, the PX - MX spread was $125.00 per ton, down 5.89%, and the basis was 333 yuan per ton, an increase of 94 yuan [1]. - **PR Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.17%; the settlement price was 5,984 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.90%; the settlement price was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The basis in the East China market was 48 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan, and in the South China market was 118 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,505 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 81.45% on June 3, up 2.27 percentage points from the previous value. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.84%, up 3.01 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.71%, down 0.23 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 83.82%, down 0.37 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 39.00% on June 3, up 5 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 72.00%, up 13 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 101.00%, up 53 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the northwest planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA opened high and closed low. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,623 yuan per ton, down 2.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.33 million lots. PX was weakly affected by costs. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.87%, with an intraday trading volume of 25,040 lots. PR followed the cost trend. The 2507 contract closed at 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.50%, with an intraday trading volume of 32,800 lots. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Although the supply side of PX has tightened significantly, the supply recovery of some PX plants is earlier than expected, and the marginal supply increase has led to a decline in the overall destocking volume of PX. However, the spot market is still short of goods, so in the short term, the PX price and the bottom of PXN will still be supported. In the medium - term supply - demand pattern, PX will still be in the destocking rhythm in the next few months [2]. - The PTA market is rising. Although downstream polyester factories are reducing production, it cannot change the destocking state of PTA. The spot basis of PTA is strong, supporting the spot market. In the short term, the PTA spot price mainly follows the cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production - reduction statements of large polyester manufacturers [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a narrow - range shock in raw materials and futures. The supply - side quotations vary, and the downstream terminal replenishment intention is limited. The market trading is somewhat cold. Recently, the industry's start - up has declined slightly, and the supply in some areas is tight [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - The futures settlement price of WTI crude oil on May 23, 2025, was $61.53 per barrel, up 0.54% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil on May 26, 2025, was $64.74 per barrel, down 0.06% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on May 26, 2025, was $566.13 per ton, up 1.03% from the previous value; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on May 23, 2025, was $707.50 per ton, up 0.43% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,724 yuan per ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,748 yuan per ton, up 0.47% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of PTA in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 4,875 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,913 yuan per ton, up 0.68% from the previous value [1]. - **PX Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 0.33% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,702 yuan per ton, up 0.48% from the previous value [1]. - The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market on May 26, 2025, was 6,615 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price (middle price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $835 per ton, up 0.97% from the previous value [1]. - **PR Price** - On May 26, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,006 yuan per ton, up 0.30% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, up 0.40% from the previous value [1]. - The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market on May 26, 2025, was 6,030 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; in the South China market, it was 6,100 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Downstream Product Price** - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY on May 26, 2025, was 8,900 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY68D on May 26, 2025, was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester fiber FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on May 26, 2025, was 6,550 yuan per ton, down 0.38% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,940 yuan per ton, up 0.34% from the previous value [2]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2]. Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **PX** - The start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain on May 26, 2025, was 79.18%, up 1.89 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The marginal supply of PX has increased, but the spot is still short. In the short term, the price has support, and it will still be in the destocking rhythm in the medium term [2]. - **PTA** - The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories on May 26, 2025, was 79.28%, up 1.03 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - PTA is in the destocking state, and the spot basis is strong. In the short term, the price mainly follows the cost side, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction of polyester manufacturers [2]. - **Polyester** - The PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories on May 26, 2025, was 90.75%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous value; the load rate of bottle - chip factories was 84.19%, down 0.94 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a cold trading atmosphere, with a slight decline in start - up and tight supply in some areas [2]. - The sales rate of polyester filament on May 26, 2025, was 36%, up 2 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester chips was 65%, up 26 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Trading Strategies - PTA is running in a range recently. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,724 yuan per ton (- 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.39 million lots [2]. - The PX2509 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (0.06%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,970 lots. It is expected that PX will run weakly [2]. - The PR2507 contract closed at 6,006 yuan per ton (0.10%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,900 lots. It is expected that PR will run weakly [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: May 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 12th, the closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2509 was 4,710 yuan/ton, up 142 yuan/ton or 3.11%. The settlement price was 4,638 yuan/ton, and the daily open interest increased by 36,095 lots. The TA2505 contract closed at 4,826 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 39,828 lots, a decrease of 1,328 lots [6]. - Market Outlook: Due to the progress in trade negotiations, the rise in crude oil prices, the recovery in downstream polyester sales, and the continuous inventory reduction of PTA, positive factors are concentrated, and the PTA market is expected to rise [6]. Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil: The market expects the easing of trade tensions between China and the US. The UK announced a "breakthrough" in the US trade agreement, and international oil prices continued to rise. On May 9, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.02 per barrel, up $1.11 or 1.85%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.91 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.70% [7]. - PX: The evaluated price of the PX market in China was $784 - 786 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The evaluated price of the PX market in South Korea was $764 - 766 per ton, also unchanged. Affected by the progress in Sino - US trade relations, the oil market continued to rise. However, due to the Vesak Day holiday in Singapore, there were no reported transactions [7]. - PTA: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,819 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was a premium of 181 yuan/ton over the futures 2509 contract, up 27 yuan/ton [7]. Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, processing margins, downstream product inventories, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, and downstream product prices [11][15][18]