Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal market has shown a relatively strong trend recently, driven by both supply - side disturbances and cost support. The short - term core logic lies in the mismatch of imported soybean supply rhythm, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The short - term soybean meal futures price will continue the strong pattern [5]. - The value of palm oil as a substitute for biodiesel has significantly increased due to concerns about crude oil supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The short - term palm oil may continue to be in a volatile and strong pattern, but the increase is limited by factors such as logistics costs, export tax increases, and potential inventory pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [6]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic soybean meal market is driven by supply - side disturbances and cost support. The short - term core is the mismatch of imported soybean supply rhythm. Brazilian government inspection system changes, corporate export suspension, and tightened customs quarantine have led to concerns about supply shortages from late March to early April. The cost of imported soybeans has increased due to the rise in US soybean prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [6]. - **Core Logic**: The Middle East conflict has increased the substitute value of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Indonesia is accelerating the B50 biofuel road test. Shipping and insurance costs have soared by 50%, and Malaysia has increased the export tax. Although the export in early March increased significantly, factors such as logistics costs and potential inventory pressure limit the increase [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market rose significantly, mainly driven by the increase in oil prices and positive sentiment. After the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the attack on oil tankers led to concerns about oil supply disruptions, pushing up oil prices. Although the Iranian military stated that the strait was not blocked, the situation remains tense, and concerns about supply disruptions and further escalation will continue to support oil prices. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate with oil prices due to a lack of fundamental drivers [8][63]. - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [9]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus: The Middle East tension continues, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iraq shutting down its largest oil field [7]. - Key data: As of March 4, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 23.3%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of March 6, the weekly asphalt production in China was 41.8 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 78.8 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 114.9 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons from the previous week [7]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Continued and escalating conflicts, concerns about crude oil supply disruptions [12]. - Bearish factors: The US takes measures to stabilize oil prices [12]. Macro Analysis - Geopolitical situation escalation: On February 28, the US and Israel launched a military strike on Iran, and Iran retaliated. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the traffic volume through the strait dropped sharply. Although the Iranian military later stated that the strait was not blocked, the Revolutionary Guard still prohibited the passage of European, American, and Israeli ships, and there are differences within Iran on this issue, increasing the uncertainty of the strait's future [15][18]. - Limited alternative routes: Normally, the Strait of Hormuz carries about 19 million barrels per day of liquid exports, of which about 16 million barrels per day are crude oil. The existing bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only divert about 3.3 million barrels per day, and the remaining about 15.75 million barrels per day of crude oil exports have no alternative evacuation channels. Middle Eastern oil - producing countries face the risk of insufficient storage capacity, and production cuts have actually occurred [24]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of March 6, the weekly asphalt production in China was 41.8 tons, an increase of 3.3 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was 23.3% as of March 4, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous statistical period. After the Spring Festival, the refinery operating rate has entered a seasonal recovery cycle, and supply - side pressure is gradually emerging [25][32]. - Demand: As of March 6, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 25.4 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons from the previous statistical period but a decrease of 6.3 tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 0.14% as of March 6, up 0.14 percentage points from the previous week. Overall, the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt has entered a seasonal recovery cycle, but it is expected to remain at a low level in the near future [35][38]. - Inventory: As of March 6, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 78.8 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 114.9 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons from the previous week. The social inventory continues the inventory accumulation cycle [45][52]. - Spread: As of March 6, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 5, the domestic asphalt basis was - 219 yuan/ton. As of March 4, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 48.09. Recently, oil prices have risen significantly, and the asphalt trend is weaker than that of oil prices, resulting in a decline in the cracking spread and a weakening of the dilution asphalt processing profit. The basis has weakened significantly [61]. Market Outlook - International diplomatic efforts may improve the pessimistic sentiment about the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz to some extent. However, due to the tense situation, concerns about supply disruptions and further escalation will continue to support oil prices. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate with oil prices in the absence of fundamental drivers [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a wide - range volatile trend. Affected by the weak crude oil trend and the weak asphalt fundamentals, the market was weak at the beginning of the week. The blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US led to a sharp rebound, but then the risk premium subsided. In the future, with shrinking downstream demand and weakening cost support, the market will face pressure. Although the tense US - Venezuela relations may cause disturbances, the actual impact is limited, and the upward drive is weak. The market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [8][51] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus includes the unexpected slowdown of US CPI data, the continuous progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan negotiation, and the intensification of US - Venezuela tensions [7] - Key data: As of December 17, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 27.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of December 19, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 48.7 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week; the factory inventory was 59.1 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from last week; the social inventory was 71.4 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from last week [8] - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the pressure around 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: raw material disturbances and supply decline; Bearish factors: weak demand and weak oil prices [12] Macroeconomic Analysis - The US - Ukraine meeting in Berlin went smoothly, and the two sides are close to reaching a security guarantee agreement similar to NATO Article 5, but there are still differences on core issues such as territory. The US and Russia are expected to meet in Miami. The market expects the geopolitical risks to ease, and is worried that the inflow of Russian crude oil will intensify the supply glut and suppress oil prices [13] - The US - Venezuela tensions have intensified. The US has seized a tanker off the Venezuelan coast and blocked sanctioned tankers. Although it has caused concerns about supply disruptions, the impact on global supply is limited and cannot change the weak pattern [14] Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of December 19, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 48.7 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week. The operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was 27.6% as of December 17, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The supply is expected to continue to decline as refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period [15][23] - Demand: As of December 19, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 35 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous statistical period. The modified asphalt capacity utilization rate was 7.66%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. Demand is in the off - season and continues to weaken [24][27] - Inventory: As of December 19, the factory inventory was 59.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons; the social inventory was 71.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 tons [33][40] - Spread: As of December 19, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 355 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 98 yuan/ton. As of December 18, the domestic asphalt basis was 198 yuan/ton. As of December 17, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 53.08. The cracking spread increased week - on - week [49] Market Outlook - The market will face pressure due to shrinking downstream demand and weakening cost support. Although the US - Venezuela tensions may cause raw material concerns, the actual impact is limited. The market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend. Pay attention to the 2820 - 2970 yuan/ton range of the BU2602 contract [51]