上周美国对俄罗斯最大两家石油公司实施制裁，原油市场价格直线拉升，布伦特油价从60美元/桶反弹 至66美元/桶，本周油价稍显平静，行情回落。对于这一地缘因素，当前市场如何看待？国泰君安期货 能化高级研究员贺晓勤表示，美国针对俄罗斯制裁的影响将会逐渐消退，油价冲高回落。OPEC+可能 继续增产，原油供应持续宽松。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market experienced a significant downturn, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices hitting their lowest levels since spring, primarily driven by escalating trade friction expectations and a decrease in geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade friction has led to a sharp market reaction, breaking the previous "habitual immunity" to such risks, resulting in a rapid reassessment of demand expectations [2] - High tariffs are expected to increase costs in multinational manufacturing chains, prompting a recalibration of global economic growth assumptions and leading to reduced forward demand parameters from refiners and traders [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risk Reduction - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has significantly lowered geopolitical risk premiums that previously supported oil prices, leading traders to reduce long positions [4] - The cessation of drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure has further alleviated concerns regarding the security of Russian oil supplies [4] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production, maintaining a trend of rising output, with OPEC's crude oil production reaching 27.948 million barrels per day in August, an increase of over 1.23 million barrels per day since April [5] - The U.S. crude oil production remains at a near five-year high, contributing to a global supply surplus, with September's global oil supply exceeding demand by 3.88 million barrels per day [6] - Rising inventories are evident, with U.S. commercial crude oil stocks increasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating a continued trend of oversupply in the fourth quarter [6]