1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Hold short positions in crude oil, as there may still be a significant adjustment by the end of the year [6] - Be cautious of further sharp declines; Brent and WTI may test the lows before April at the end of this year and early next year, and may even reach $50 per barrel. The decline of SC may be less than that of international benchmarks [8] - The decline of oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, but the medium - to long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, as oil price fluctuations may increase [8] - Multiple investment banks and institutions believe that the global oil market supply and demand will tend to be loose from 2025 - 2026, with a high probability of surplus, and oil prices will be under overall pressure. However, there will be short - term fluctuations due to sanctions and other factors. The interruption of Russian supply is the main upside risk, and OPEC+ policy adjustments will affect market balance [24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The gold - oil ratio has stabilized [27] - The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has declined [37] 3.2 Supply - Global crude oil supply is abundant. Non - OPEC+ supply growth is strong, driven by increased production in the US, Brazil, Guyana, etc. Guyana's production has reached a record 900,000 barrels per day due to the early commissioning of the Yellowtail project. However, Russian supply has been severely impacted by sanctions, and there is a regional and qualitative supply imbalance [6] - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 140,000 barrels per day in December at the November 2 meeting. Considering seasonal factors, it also decided to suspend production increases from January to March 2026 [39] - OPEC 8's production increase completion rate in October remained at 80%. OPEC 8's exports reached a high in September and decreased by 480,000 barrels per day in October [40][41] - US shale oil drilling and production have stabilized [72] 3.3 Demand - The demand side shows a pattern of overall slow - down in growth and significant internal differentiation. The global crude oil demand growth forecast has been lowered, mainly due to weak US data, but the growth rate is still higher than that in 2024. The core contradiction lies in the refining sector becoming a key bottleneck [7] - US and European refinery operating rates have declined, and the operating rate of major Chinese refineries has dropped significantly. The "Rizhao Port Incident" may continue to have an impact [76] 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average [81] - European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased [86] - There are details about global in - transit crude oil inventories and floating storage inventories [88][95] 3.5 Price and Spread - Refining margins have risen and then fallen [83]

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market experienced a significant downturn, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices hitting their lowest levels since spring, primarily driven by escalating trade friction expectations and a decrease in geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade friction has led to a sharp market reaction, breaking the previous "habitual immunity" to such risks, resulting in a rapid reassessment of demand expectations [2] - High tariffs are expected to increase costs in multinational manufacturing chains, prompting a recalibration of global economic growth assumptions and leading to reduced forward demand parameters from refiners and traders [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risk Reduction - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has significantly lowered geopolitical risk premiums that previously supported oil prices, leading traders to reduce long positions [4] - The cessation of drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure has further alleviated concerns regarding the security of Russian oil supplies [4] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production, maintaining a trend of rising output, with OPEC's crude oil production reaching 27.948 million barrels per day in August, an increase of over 1.23 million barrels per day since April [5] - The U.S. crude oil production remains at a near five-year high, contributing to a global supply surplus, with September's global oil supply exceeding demand by 3.88 million barrels per day [6] - Rising inventories are evident, with U.S. commercial crude oil stocks increasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating a continued trend of oversupply in the fourth quarter [6]