研究中心能化团队 2025/09/18 原油成品油早报 | | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/11 | 62.37 | 66.37 | 69.85 | - | 0.36 | -4.00 | -0.02 | 197.93 | 16.76 | 228.19 | 29.47 | | 2025/09/12 | 62.69 | 66.99 | 70.20 | - | 0.45 | -4.30 | -0.02 | 198.54 | 16.40 | 229.00 | 29.19 | | 2025/09/15 | ...

原油日报 | 2025-07-25 阿塞拜疆原油出现有机氯污染，乌拉尔装船因检查延迟 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨78美分，收于每桶66.03美元，涨幅为1.2%；9月交货的伦敦布 伦特原油期货价格上涨67美分，收于每桶69.18美元，涨幅为0.98%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.56%，报507元/桶。 2、俄罗斯预计将在几天内对燃油生产商实施汽油出口禁令。 (来源：Bloomberg） 3、俄罗斯联邦安全局已开始向外国油轮发放许可证，允许其进入黑海港口，这为哈萨克斯坦石油出口的恢复铺平 道路。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，伊朗对与以色列的停火前景并不乐观，伊朗已做好应对任何情况的准备。（来源： Bloomberg） 5、伊朗副外长表示，要与美国恢复核谈判，需要建立互信、承认德黑兰的核权利以及保证不攻击伊朗。（来源： Bloomberg） 6、新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：截至7月23日当周，新加坡燃料油库存在上涨31.4万桶达到2369.9万桶的两周高点。 （来源：Bloomberg） 投资逻辑 近期，原油供应方面的短期扰动不断，俄罗斯乌拉尔原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to immediate impacts on capital markets, with a surge in global risk aversion and significant increases in oil and energy stocks [1][5][17]. Market Impact - Global stock markets experienced declines on June 13, with major indices falling, except for the Russian RTS index which saw a slight increase [1][3]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index had smaller declines compared to Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI [1]. - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down less than 0.5%, while France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX fell over 1% [1][3]. - In the Americas, the three major US indices saw significant drops, with the Dow Jones down 1.79% and both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 down over 1% [1][3]. Oil and Energy Sector Performance - International oil prices surged over 10% during the day, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude both exceeding $70 per barrel [5]. - Energy stocks in the US saw dramatic increases, with Houston energy stocks rising over 176% at one point, closing with a 119.19% increase [7]. - Major US energy companies also reported significant gains, with Halliburton up over 5%, Occidental Petroleum up over 3%, and ExxonMobil, Devon Energy, and ConocoPhillips all rising over 2% [7]. Oil Production and Export Projections - Current oil production in the Middle East shows Saudi Arabia leading with 9.07 million barrels per day, followed by Iran at 4.27 million barrels, while Israel and Turkey produce less than 200,000 barrels combined [9]. - Analysts estimate Iran's oil exports could reach 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day by 2025, potentially impacting around 4% of global oil exports [11]. - JPMorgan warns that a larger conflict in the Middle East could disrupt Iran's exports of 2.1 million barrels per day, leading to severe supply chaos in the oil market [11]. Historical Context and Price Trends - Historical data indicates that conflicts in the Middle East typically cause sharp short-term disruptions in oil supply, with long-term effects stabilizing over time [13][15]. - The oil price response to geopolitical tensions has historically shown a pattern of sharp increases followed by corrections, influenced by changes in supply and demand dynamics [15][17].