Workflow
原糖期货
icon
Search documents
白糖日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of Zhengzhou sugar may be nearing its end as the long - position funds are actively shifting to the 01 contract, causing the 9 - 1 spread to weaken. Currently, the basis is large, and there is certain support at the 5700 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5697 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.42%, with a position reduction of 20364 lots; SR601 closed at 5638 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.21%, with a position increase of 24152 lots; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.25 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 2539 lots; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.88 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.60%, with a position increase of 2476 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: New York raw sugar futures strengthened on Monday. The bearish production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July suppressed the raw sugar price, but concerns about the decline in Brazil's production still exist, and there is a high possibility of a reduction in beet sugar production in the EU. Zhengzhou sugar's decline was mainly due to the long - position funds' shift to the 01 contract [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China - Guangxi**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing in Guangxi was 4859.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 646.50 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales were 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 35.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.78 million tons; the industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons [9]. - **China - Yunnan**: The 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan ended 5 days earlier than last year. The total cane crushing was 1806.30 million tons (compared with 1544.94 million tons in the previous season), the sugar output was 241.88 million tons (compared with 203.20 million tons in the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 13.39% (compared with 13.15% in the previous season), and the alcohol output was 2.82 million tons (compared with 2.80 million tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 80.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the monthly sugar sales were 20.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons; the industrial inventory was 46.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06 million tons [9]. - **Brazil**: In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4982.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 641.1 million tons or 14.77%; the ATR of cane was 133.66 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.79 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%; the ethanol output was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 0.051 billion liters or 2.36%; the sugar output was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.446 million tons or 15.07% [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][17].
白糖数据日报-20250715
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 07:20
Report Title - Sugar Data Daily Report [2] Core View - The rebound of the international raw sugar from the bottom has driven the rebound of the domestic market, but the upside space remains limited. Internationally, the supply side continues to recover this season. Brazil's new season is progressing smoothly, but the increase in Brazil's production may be lower than expected. Benefiting from favorable monsoon weather, the production in India and Thailand is expected to rebound. Domestically, the new season is expected to see a significant increase in production to a historical high, and the domestic market may continue to be under pressure, but the downside space is also limited [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Guangxi Nanning Warehouse: 6140 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Yunnan Kunming: 5905 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Yunnan Dali: 5800 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Shandong Rizhao: 6135 yuan/ton, no change [3] Futures Prices - SR09: 5817, up 7 [3] - SR01: 5639, up 10 [3] Exchange Rates - RMB to USD: 7.1865, down 0.0080 [3] - Brazilian Real to RMB: 1.2818, up 0.0212 [3] - Indian Rupee to RMB: 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] International Futures Prices - ICE Raw Sugar Main Contract: 16.56, no change [3] - London White Sugar Main Contract: 573, up 3 [3] - Brent Crude Oil Main Contract: 70.63, no change [3] Spreads - SR09 - SR01: 178, down 3 [3]
白糖数据日报-20250710
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 06:31
Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on sugar, providing price data and market analysis [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the international raw sugar market has driven the domestic market up, but the upside space remains limited [3] - Internationally, the supply side continues to recover this season, with the new Brazilian season progressing smoothly, but the increase in Brazilian production may be less than expected [3] - India and Thailand's production is expected to recover due to favorable monsoon weather [3] - Domestically, the new season is expected to see a significant increase in production, which may put continuous pressure on the domestic market, but the downside space is also limited [3] Data Summary Domestic Sugar Price - On July 9, 2025, the price per ton of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 341 yuan against SR09, a decrease of 32 yuan [3] - The price in Kunming, Yunnan was 6,365 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan, with a basis of 468 yuan against SR09 [3] - The price in Dali, Yunnan was 5,770 yuan, unchanged, with a basis of 131 yuan against SR09, a decrease of 32 yuan [3] - The price in Rizhao, Shandong was 6,135 yuan, unchanged, with a basis of 256 yuan against SR09, a decrease of 32 yuan [3] Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,779 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan; SR01 closed at 5,606 yuan, an increase of 17 yuan [3] - The spread between SR09 and SR01 was 173 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [3] Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1995, an increase of 0.0075; the Brazilian Real to RMB exchange rate was 1.2818, an increase of 0.0212; the Indian Rupee to RMB exchange rate was 0.084, a decrease of 0.0004 [3] - The ICE raw sugar main contract was at 16.15, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract was at 573, an increase of 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was at 70.03, unchanged [3]
白糖日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:47
Industry Report Overview 1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: June 27, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core Views - New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, with the main October contract up 1.59% to 16.62 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main August contract rose 2.4% to $479 per ton. Frost in Brazilian sugar - cane regions and an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline are expected to reduce sugar - making raw material supply [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose slightly. The 09 contract closed at 5,790 yuan per ton, up 63 yuan or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15,891 positions. Domestic spot prices rose. Zhengzhou sugar was strong, with limited fundamental changes. After being pressured by funds, it faced strong resistance below 5,600 yuan, and large speculative short - positions leaving supported the price [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestion - **Futures Market:** SR509 closed at 5,790 yuan per ton, up 63 yuan or 1.1%, with a position reduction of 15,891 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,601 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan or 0.72%, with a position increase of 956 contracts; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.62 cents per pound, up 0.26 cents or 1.59%, with a position increase of 8,324 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 17.26 cents per pound, up 0.22 cents or 1.29%, with a position increase of 2,553 contracts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Brazil will increase the mandatory anhydrous ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in ordinary diesel from 14% to 15% starting August 1 [9]. - Itaú BBA predicts that the sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season will be 590 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. However, sugar production is expected to reach 41.2 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase, with a sugar - making ratio of 52% and an average ATR of 141 kg per ton [9]. - Indonesia's 2025 white sugar production is expected to be 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons. It plans to import about 200,000 tons of raw sugar, and the demand in 2025 is expected to reach 2.84 million tons [9]. - As of the week ending June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 80 the previous week. The sugar volume waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, a 1.94% week - on - week decrease [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, contract basis, spread, import profit, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract [11][13][20][23]
白糖日报-20250514
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:37
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The New York raw sugar futures declined on Monday, with the main July contract closing down 0.73% at 17.65 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main August contract closed down 1% at $495.00 per ton. The raw sugar main contract failed to break through the 18 - cent mark, and although the sugar price stabilized and rebounded, the upward momentum was insufficient [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract dropped yesterday. The 09 contract closed at 5,853 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan or 0.26%, with an increase of 889 contracts in positions. The decline was due to following the raw sugar trend and market rumors of the issuance of out - of - quota import licenses, which may increase the pressure of imported sugar on the domestic sugar market starting from June. After the market, some speculative long - positions were liquidated, and overall market participation was low [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,853 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan or 0.26%, with a position of 309,043 contracts and an increase of 889 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,718 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.31%, with a position of 29,022 contracts and an increase of 691 contracts; US sugar 07 closed at 17.65 cents per pound, down 0.13 cents or 0.73%, with a position of 337,900 contracts and a decrease of 8,060 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 17.83 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.50%, with a position of 163,719 contracts and an increase of 428 contracts [7]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: Domestic spot prices in production areas remained stable, with Kunming sugar priced at 5,960 yuan and Nanning sugar at 6,130 yuan [8]. 2. Industry News - **Global Sugar Demand**: Global sugar demand has been growing at a rate of 1.1% per sugar - making season over the past 15 years. It is expected to reach 178 million tons (in white sugar equivalent) or 193.6 million tons (in raw sugar equivalent) in the 2024/25 season [9]. - **Yunnan Sugar Mills**: As of a certain date, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan had completed the crushing process, 4 less than the same period last year, with a crushing capacity of 153,400 tons per day, a decrease of 16,800 tons per day compared to the previous year, and 9 sugar mills had not completed the process [9]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports**: In April, Brazil exported 1,555,777.09 tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 77,788.85 tons, a 9% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in April of the previous year [9]. - **Guangxi Sugar Sales**: As of the end of April, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 4.1353 million tons, an increase of 554,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, an increase of 6.03 percentage points. In April, the monthly sugar production was 4,200 tons, a decrease of 72,300 tons compared to the previous year, and the monthly sugar sales were 657,300 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons compared to the previous year. The industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a decrease of 270,700 tons compared to the previous year [9]. - **Yunnan Sugar Sales**: As of April 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan reached 1.3168 million tons (compared to 941,100 tons in the same period last year). The monthly sugar sales were 280,400 tons (compared to 189,500 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71% (compared to 46.53% in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons (compared to 1.0816 million tons in the same period last year) [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Transaction and Position Data**: The total trading volume of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 217,778 lots, a decrease of 33,078 lots; the total long - position was 229,470 lots, an increase of 2,004 lots; the total short - position was 225,855 lots, a decrease of 859 lots [21].
白糖周报:巴西开榨叠加宏观滋扰
Zhong Liang Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 05:05
Market Overview - Domestic sugar futures (Zheng sugar) experienced a high-level adjustment, with a weekly decline of 103 CNY/ton, or -1.66%, closing at 6086 CNY/ton[4] - International raw sugar (New York sugar) saw a weekly drop of 1.1 cents, or -5.81%, ending at 17.83 cents/pound due to weak demand and adverse weather conditions in Brazil[4] Production and Sales - For the 2023/24 sugar production period, total sugar output reached 10.748 million tons, an increase of 1.175 million tons year-on-year[7] - Cumulative sugar sales amounted to 5.9958 million tons, up 1.2613 million tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 55.79%, reflecting a 6.33% increase[7] Import Dynamics - Current import profits for Brazilian raw sugar are at -247.16 CNY/ton, while Thai white sugar stands at -129.81 CNY/ton, indicating reduced profitability for imports[8] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The sentiment in the raw sugar market is negative due to concerns over demand and the impact of tariff policies, leading to a price drop below 18 cents[25] - Short-term expectations suggest a potential rebound in raw sugar prices if tariff conditions improve, but demand remains weak above 19 cents[25] Domestic Sugar Market Outlook - Domestic sugar prices are expected to be influenced by the tightening of syrup policies and the need to fill production gaps, with potential upward pressure on prices as Brazilian supplies remain uncertain[26]