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贵金属市场周报-20250919
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 10:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the precious metals market may remain under pressure and experience a corrective trend. The market may enter an oscillatory range as there is a lack of further bullish catalysts, and the interpretation of Powell's speech is "cautiously dovish", deviating from market expectations. In the long - term, if the September economic data continues to be weak, the market may raise the expectation of interest rate cuts this year again, and gold and silver prices are expected to break through previous highs. The U.S. government's long - standing debt credit problem also strongly supports the monetary attribute of gold. The recommended strategy is to try short positions lightly at high prices and focus on range - bound trading [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, the precious metals market continued to rise strongly driven by the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts. Before the FOMC meeting, gold and silver futures prices reached new historical highs. After the interest rate cut was realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and long - position funds flowed out. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The risk - balance wording in the policy statement changed significantly, and it first clearly admitted the economic slowdown, employment slowdown, a slight rise in the unemployment rate, and persistent high inflation in the first half of the year. The latest SEP shows a slight downward shift in the policy path compared to the June forecast. The median forecast of the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 is 3.6%, implying a further 50 - 75 basis points of easing space this year. The inflation and labor market forecasts were also readjusted. The initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week had the largest single - week decline in nearly four years, but the continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating structural problems in the labor market. U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the precious metals market may be under pressure and correct. The follow - up market trend depends on the August PCE data and the tone of the Fed officials' subsequent speeches. In the long - term, if the September economic data is weak, the expectation of interest rate cuts may rise again, and gold and silver prices may break through previous highs. The recommended strategy is to try short positions lightly at high prices and focus on range - bound trading. The recommended range for the main SHFE gold 2512 contract is 800 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main SHFE silver 2512 contract is 9800 - 10100 yuan/kg [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of September 19, 2025, COMEX silver was at $42.29 per ounce, down 1.10% from last week; the main SHFE silver 2512 contract was at 9971 yuan/kg, up 0.41% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3679.40 per ounce, basically unchanged from last week; the main SHFE gold 2512 contract was at 830.56 yuan/gram [11] - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 18, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, while the net holdings of the SLV silver ETF increased by 0.90% month - on - month [16] - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of September 9, 2025, the total and net positions of COMEX gold increased by 3.39% and 4.89% respectively month - on - month, while the total and net positions of COMEX silver decreased by 1.05% and 3.55% respectively month - on - month [21] - **Basis Changes**: As of September 19, 2025, the gold basis was 0.43 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 24 yuan/kg [25] - **Inventory Trends**: As of September 18, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 22.19% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.80% month - on - month, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.50% month - on - month [31] 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Import Volume**: As of July 2025, China's silver import volume decreased by 7.46% month - on - month, while the import volume of silver ore sand increased by 22.32% month - on - month [35] - **Downstream Demand**: As of August 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4.25 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.20%, driven by the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry [41] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver increased by 4% year - on - year, the demand for coins and net bars decreased by 22% year - on - year, and the net investment demand for silver ETFs increased from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. The total demand for silver decreased by 3% year - on - year. The total supply of silver increased by 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap decreased by 26% month - on - month [47][51] 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Price Fluctuations**: As of September 19, 2025, the gold recycling price in China decreased by 0.27% month - on - month. The gold prices of Laofengxiang decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, Zhou Dafu increased by 0.47% month - on - month, and Liulifuzhou remained unchanged [55] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, and the high gold price also led to a marginal decline in the demand for gold jewelry manufacturing [57] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The U.S. dollar fluctuated weakly this week, and the yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds increased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price continued to decline [61][65] - **Central Bank Gold - Buying**: In September 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.87 tons [74]
欧央行维持利率不变,拉加德称去通胀进程已告一段落
第一财经· 2025-09-12 00:24
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its interest rates, indicating a consensus on the current policy stance and signaling a pause in the rate-cutting cycle as inflation approaches target levels [3][5]. Interest Rate Decision - The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - This marks the second consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady following a pause in rate cuts since July [3]. Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the process of reducing inflation has concluded, with current inflation levels nearing the bank's target [5]. - The ECB's latest forecasts predict Eurozone inflation to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) expected to be 2.4% in 2025, dropping to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 [5]. Asset Purchase Programs - The ECB is gradually reducing its Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios at a stable and predictable pace [6]. - Lagarde noted that the sovereign bond market in the Eurozone is functioning orderly, and there was no discussion of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) during the meeting [6]. Economic Growth Projections - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.2%, from a previous estimate of 0.9%, reflecting improved business activity and consumer confidence [9]. - Growth expectations for 2026 have been slightly downgraded to 1.0%, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.3% [9]. External Risks - Market participants believe the ECB has entered a period of policy observation, with a less than one-third chance of another rate cut this year [8]. - There are concerns regarding external risks, including potential impacts from U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties, which could affect the Eurozone's economic recovery [8][9].