Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a US-China trade agreement by October 30 appears low, despite recent developments indicating a shift in trade relations that could benefit global trade terms and export-dependent economies [1][3]. Economic Backdrop: China's Domestic Challenges - Recent trade data shows a rebound in external demand for China, with exports increasing by 8.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4.4% in August, and industrial profits rising by 21.6% year-on-year, compared to 20.4% in August [4]. - However, overcapacity and excess supply in sectors like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels are causing deflationary pressures, leading to price cuts and market flooding [5]. Trade Deal Implications - A potential US-China trade deal that includes lower or zero tariffs on Chinese goods could help rebalance trade dynamics, with strong US demand being crucial for improving profit margins and domestic consumption in China [6]. - The ambition of the Chinese government to maintain export dominance while transitioning to a consumption-led economy is referred to as "dual circulation" [6]. Policy Signals: Stimulus Push - Calls for a significant infrastructure investment push have been made to revive domestic demand, with suggestions that infrastructure projects could raise household incomes and shift growth focus from exports to internal demand [9]. Market Reactions - Mainland equity markets experienced selling pressure ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices declining slightly, although optimism regarding a potential trade deal remains [10]. - A successful trade deal could propel the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices towards their previous all-time highs, set in 2021 and 2015 respectively [11].

Group 1: Trade War Impact - The trade war initiated by Trump in 2018 led to significant economic friction between the US and China, with tariffs imposed on over $100 billion worth of goods from both sides [1] - The conflict escalated from economic disputes to a broader confrontation, disrupting global supply chains and altering public perception of the US in China [1][4] - The Chinese government shifted its strategy towards a dual circulation economy, promoting domestic demand in response to the trade war's impact on export-oriented businesses [4] Group 2: Changing Perspectives - Prior to the trade war, many Chinese citizens viewed the US as a land of opportunity, influenced by Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and Ivy League schools [2] - The imposition of tariffs and restrictions by the US revealed a different side of American policy, leading to a decline in trust among the Chinese public towards the US [5] - A 2023 poll indicated that 60% of Americans believed the trade war harmed their own interests, reflecting a mutual disillusionment [5] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Chinese students are increasingly opting for education in Europe, Australia, or domestic institutions instead of the US, indicating a shift in educational aspirations [6] - Companies that once idolized Silicon Valley are now focusing on domestic alternatives, particularly in critical technologies like chips and photolithography [6] - Consumer preferences have shifted, with domestic brands gaining traction as reliable alternatives to previously revered foreign products like the iPhone [7] Group 4: Economic Resilience - Despite the trade war, China's economy has shown resilience, with growth maintained through expansion into ASEAN and Belt and Road markets [8] - The US agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, faced significant challenges, highlighting the adverse effects of the trade policies on American producers [8][9] Group 5: Future Dynamics - The Biden administration continued a hardline approach towards China, with new restrictions on technology and electric vehicles, indicating ongoing tensions [11] - Chinese companies are diversifying supply chains to reduce reliance on the US, with production shifting to countries like Vietnam and Thailand [13] - Advances in technology, such as Huawei's HarmonyOS and domestic chip development, are reducing vulnerabilities to US sanctions [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The trade war has catalyzed a shift in mindset among the Chinese populace, fostering a sense of self-reliance and a focus on domestic development rather than dependence on foreign validation [15]

Core Insights - The Jining Dual Circulation Economic E-commerce Industrial Park, a key component of the "Jining Digital Industry Belt" project, has become a new engine for the development of the e-commerce industry in Jining, providing a quality development platform for small and medium-sized trade enterprises and attracting numerous entrepreneurs [1][3] Group 1: Park Overview - The industrial park covers an area of 4,000 square meters and has gathered 156 registered companies and 41 individual businesses, with 35 operational enterprises, including 16 domestic trade and 19 foreign trade companies, forming a collaborative development pattern [1] - The park has helped over 10 companies achieve breakthroughs in foreign trade, with notable examples including Shandong Long Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd., Zhong Silicon, and Aonobao, leveraging comprehensive content services and SEO strategies [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - The park has achieved an annual sales revenue exceeding 280 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 40%, and a total operating revenue of 1.065 billion yuan, comprising 344 million yuan from foreign trade and 721 million yuan from domestic trade [3][4] Group 3: Business Ecosystem - The park's integrated ecosystem includes e-commerce platforms, payment systems, supply sources, warehousing, logistics, finance, talent, resources, policies, and information, which are key factors attracting businesses to settle [4] - The park provides a one-stop service for resident companies, including policy consultation, business support, talent training, resource matching, project application, and financial integration [6] Group 4: Talent Development - The park regularly hosts e-commerce lectures, salons, and training sessions to cultivate e-commerce talent systematically, establishing a comprehensive talent empowerment system [6] - A professional and international talent reserve is being developed to support the growth of enterprises [6] Group 5: Future Prospects - The Jining Dual Circulation Economic E-commerce Industrial Park aims to enhance its service system and optimize the development environment, striving to become a hub for small and medium-sized trade enterprises and a highland for the e-commerce industry in Jining [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a new international order is emerging, and Chinese assets have significant potential for revaluation in the medium to long term [1][2] - Short-term strategies should focus on strategically positioning in technology, new consumption, gold, and military industries while being cautious of geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy disruptions [1][3] - The trade war is seen as having no winners, with potential impacts on both the US and global economies, and a typical bear market in US stocks is anticipated for 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The revaluation of Chinese assets is a medium to long-term logic, with internal factors being the core variable influencing the capital market [2] - The development of new productive forces in China is expected to play a significant role in the future growth of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [2] - Defensive strategies are recommended in the short term, with a focus on technology as a primary investment line, while gold and military assets are suggested as traditional safe-haven investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint is that the long-term re-evaluation of the Chinese capital market is primarily driven by internal reform factors, despite short-term external disturbances such as trade friction and economic recession risks [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market may face a typical "bear market" with a rapid adjustment expected by 2025 due to trade friction and economic recession risks [1] - Current volatility in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets has prompted a shift in policy stance, although the substantial impacts of trade friction have not yet fully materialized [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the third quarter, U.S. inflation pressures and recession risks may resonate, potentially forcing the U.S. to return to negotiations [1] Group 3: China's Role - China is becoming an important stabilizing force in a multipolar world by constructing a dual circulation economy and promoting an inclusive international system [1] - Despite short-term external disturbances, the core driving force for the long-term re-evaluation of the Chinese capital market remains internal reform [1] - Chinese assets possess strategic allocation value amid the evolving global landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, polyolefins traded in a consolidative manner. Due to the US tariff hikes and increased crude oil supply, international crude oil prices dropped significantly, exerting pressure on polyolefins at the opening. For polyolefins in the refining and chemical segment, the increase in OPEC supply suppresses oil prices, which helps repair the production profit of oil - based products. However, the tariff hikes increase the cost of PDH - process PP and are unfavorable for global commodity terminal demand, directly affecting the demand for chemical products. In the short term, the market will inevitably be impacted. Besides monitoring cost - side fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the demand side in the dual - circulation economy, and whether the domestic economy can continue to grow in the second quarter to offset the negative impact of US tariff hikes on demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **LL Futures**: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7205, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7236, a decline of 31, and a decline rate of 0.43%. The trading volume was 2517, the open interest was 9238, and the change in open interest was 472. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 121 (previous value - 84), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 101 (previous value 59), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 20 (previous value 25) [2]. - **PP Futures**: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7081, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7118, a decline of 37, and a decline rate of 0.52%. The trading volume was 2450, the open interest was 3231, and the change in open interest was 1392. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 119 (previous value - 79), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 71 (previous value 45), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 48 (previous value 34) [2]. Spot Market Data - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current price of methanol futures is 2372 yuan/ton (previous value 2380 yuan/ton), the price of Shandong propylene is 6650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of South China propane is 616 dollars/ton (previous value 577 dollars/ton), the price of PP recycled materials is 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of North China powder is 7070 yuan/ton (previous value 7080 yuan/ton), and the price of plastic film is 8800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **LL Spot**: The current price in the East China market is 7650 - 8200 yuan/ton (previous value 7700 - 8250 yuan/ton), in the North China market is 7550 - 8050 yuan/ton (previous value 7600 - 8100 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7750 - 8150 yuan/ton (previous value 7850 - 8200 yuan/ton) [2]. - **PP Spot**: The current price in the East China market is 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the North China market is 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton (previous value 7200 - 7250 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton) [2]. Crude Oil Market Information - On Tuesday (April 8), the settlement price of the May 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.58 per barrel, down $1.12 or 1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.88 - $61.75. The settlement price of the June 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.82 per barrel, down $1.39 or 2.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.34 - $65.21 [2].

Investment Highlights - The article emphasizes that the recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market do not alter the underlying bullish logic, with internal factors being the key determinants of the market's long-term trends [1][3]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The international political and economic landscape is increasingly unstable, with China focusing on building a dual-circulation economic development model to stabilize global economic growth [2][24]. - China's external circulation aims to promote an open world economy and combat protectionism, leveraging its comprehensive industrial system to enhance cooperation with non-U.S. countries [2][24]. - The internal circulation is expected to see increased policy support, with the central bank and relevant ministries indicating that there is still room for policy maneuvering [2][28]. - China is projected to become a significant consumer market, with the real estate sector expected to stabilize by 2025, thereby releasing substantial domestic demand potential [2][30]. Stock Market Fundamentals - The continuation of the current bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market hinges on the development of technology and new consumption sectors, which now account for 54.5% of the total market capitalization [2][40]. - The rise of AI technology is seen as a pivotal factor for the Hong Kong bull market, with historical precedents indicating that technology-driven market trends can last for several years [2][41][47]. - Emerging consumption trends, particularly among younger generations, are expected to drive rapid growth in new consumption sectors, supported by a strong domestic market [2][51][53]. Investment Strategy - The short-term strategy suggests a defensive approach while waiting for external risks to subside, with a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio [2][55]. - In the medium term, the strategy is to remain bullish, taking advantage of market corrections to accumulate strategic assets, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [2][55][56].