智通财经APP获悉，4月28日，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在2025年度中国投资人峰会上分享 了对资本市场的看法。他表示，国际新秩序的序幕已经拉开，中长期来看，中国资产大有可为，正是重 估的时代。短期建议逢低布局战略性资产：科技、新消费、黄金军工。 张忆东称，总体来说，在中短期3到6个月的维度来说，依然会面临着很多地缘政治的不确定性，以及关 税政策的一些扰动。而且贸易政策带来的不确定性不会很快结束。 他表示，贸易战没有赢家，美国经济乃至全球经济都会受到贸易摩擦的影响。2025年美股很可能走出典 型的美股熊市，当然通常美股熊市调整的时间比较短，往往1到2年，甚至很多时候就是一年以内，但比 较急速、比较猛烈。 谈及中国资本市场，张忆东表示，内因才是决定中国资本市场重估的核心变量，新秩序正在悄然拉开帷 幕，而中国是新秩序全球治理新秩序的受益者，对中国看多。 他认为中国资产中长期大有可为，短期只是因为外因所导致的扰动。他认为下个阶段，中国构建双循环 经济发展的格局将会落到实处，从而成为世界经济增长的稳定锚。 同时他也指，中国资产重估是一个中长期逻辑。从中短期应对外部的一些冲击，政策上面有很多的空 间，会择机用好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint is that the long-term re-evaluation of the Chinese capital market is primarily driven by internal reform factors, despite short-term external disturbances such as trade friction and economic recession risks [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market may face a typical "bear market" with a rapid adjustment expected by 2025 due to trade friction and economic recession risks [1] - Current volatility in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets has prompted a shift in policy stance, although the substantial impacts of trade friction have not yet fully materialized [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the third quarter, U.S. inflation pressures and recession risks may resonate, potentially forcing the U.S. to return to negotiations [1] Group 3: China's Role - China is becoming an important stabilizing force in a multipolar world by constructing a dual circulation economy and promoting an inclusive international system [1] - Despite short-term external disturbances, the core driving force for the long-term re-evaluation of the Chinese capital market remains internal reform [1] - Chinese assets possess strategic allocation value amid the evolving global landscape [1]

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 据新华社，会议指出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质 量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商 务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推 责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国 家进一步减产的最新计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减 产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据 显示， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, polyolefins traded in a consolidative manner. Due to the US tariff hikes and increased crude oil supply, international crude oil prices dropped significantly, exerting pressure on polyolefins at the opening. For polyolefins in the refining and chemical segment, the increase in OPEC supply suppresses oil prices, which helps repair the production profit of oil - based products. However, the tariff hikes increase the cost of PDH - process PP and are unfavorable for global commodity terminal demand, directly affecting the demand for chemical products. In the short term, the market will inevitably be impacted. Besides monitoring cost - side fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the demand side in the dual - circulation economy, and whether the domestic economy can continue to grow in the second quarter to offset the negative impact of US tariff hikes on demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **LL Futures**: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7205, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7236, a decline of 31, and a decline rate of 0.43%. The trading volume was 2517, the open interest was 9238, and the change in open interest was 472. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 121 (previous value - 84), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 101 (previous value 59), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 20 (previous value 25) [2]. - **PP Futures**: The 1 - month contract had a previous day's closing price of 7081, a 2 - day - ago closing price of 7118, a decline of 37, and a decline rate of 0.52%. The trading volume was 2450, the open interest was 3231, and the change in open interest was 1392. The 1 - month to 5 - month spread was - 119 (previous value - 79), the 5 - month to 9 - month spread was 71 (previous value 45), and the 9 - month to 1 - month spread was 48 (previous value 34) [2]. Spot Market Data - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current price of methanol futures is 2372 yuan/ton (previous value 2380 yuan/ton), the price of Shandong propylene is 6650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of South China propane is 616 dollars/ton (previous value 577 dollars/ton), the price of PP recycled materials is 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of North China powder is 7070 yuan/ton (previous value 7080 yuan/ton), and the price of plastic film is 8800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **LL Spot**: The current price in the East China market is 7650 - 8200 yuan/ton (previous value 7700 - 8250 yuan/ton), in the North China market is 7550 - 8050 yuan/ton (previous value 7600 - 8100 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7750 - 8150 yuan/ton (previous value 7850 - 8200 yuan/ton) [2]. - **PP Spot**: The current price in the East China market is 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the North China market is 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton (previous value 7200 - 7250 yuan/ton), and in the South China market is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton) [2]. Crude Oil Market Information - On Tuesday (April 8), the settlement price of the May 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.58 per barrel, down $1.12 or 1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.88 - $61.75. The settlement price of the June 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.82 per barrel, down $1.39 or 2.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.34 - $65.21 [2].

投 资要点 - ..... - 口 中期展望:风雨彩虹,2季度的调整不改变港股此轮牛市逻辑,内因才是决定港股行情大趋势的关键变量。 摘要:经历风雨,积极防御 兴业址存 风险提示:大国博弈风险,美国货币政策超预期风险,全球经济增速下行超预期风障。公众号 · 张忆,东 策略 世 界 - ●●●● - 报告正文 ..... 口 宏观东稳西荡:国际政治、经济形势更趋动荡不安,中国构建双循环经济发展格局、成为世界经济增长的稳定锚。 ■ 外循环:推动建设开放型世界经济,与弧立主义和关税大棒行为坚决做斗争,为世界经济发展注入新动力。我国 具备全球最完整、规模最大的工业体系和完善的配套能力,积极推进与非美国家的合作。 ■ 内循环:短期,政策对冲力度有望逐步加大,近期央行、财政部等相关部委发言人均表示"政策仍有空间，择机 用好储备工具"。中期、中国是全球第二大消费市场,拥有全球最大规模中等收入群体。随着一线城市及部分核 心二线城市租金回报率超过无风险收益率,中国房地产2025年有望触底企稳,中国巨大的内需潜力将得以释放。 经济政策导向将聚焦提高国内大循环效率、鼓励科技创新、打造未来发展新优势。 □ 股市基本面:港股此轮行情能否 ...