Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the coking coal and coke market is mainly driven by short - position increases, leading to a significant decline in the market. Although it stabilized in the night session yesterday, the downstream resumption of work is relatively slow, while the coal mine production resumed in a timely manner, keeping the supply - demand of coking coal and coke in a loose state. With an important meeting approaching in March, although the policy expectations are relatively low, it provides a certain bottom support for the market. The market should pay attention to policy - related news disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1,101.5 yuan/ton, and the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1,634.5 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Important News - The US has officially started imposing a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing an official order to raise the tariff to 15%. The US government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries on the grounds of "national security", which may cover large - scale batteries, cast iron and iron accessories, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment. These new tariffs will be implemented independently of the recently announced 15% global tariff measures [1] - In response to the recent US tariff adjustment measures, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that China is closely monitoring and will comprehensively evaluate the relevant US measures, and will decide on counter - measures against the original fentanyl tariff and reciprocal tariffs on the US as appropriate [1] - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, a total of 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation, and the world's largest clean power supply system and clean steel production system have been built [1] 3.3 Market Logic - After the holiday, the coking coal and coke market was mainly driven by short - position increases, causing a sharp decline in the market. It stabilized in the night session yesterday. Fundamentally, the downstream resumption of work is relatively slow after the holiday, while the coal mine production resumed in a timely manner, keeping the supply - demand of coking coal and coke in a loose state. With an important meeting approaching in March, although the policy expectations are relatively low, it provides a certain bottom support for the market. The market should pay attention to policy - related news disturbances [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the short term, the market is regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias. Attention should be paid to whether the support level of 1,060 for the main coking coal contract can be broken [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the coking coal futures price fluctuated significantly, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, while the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market generally continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal with the same trend. After the seventh round of price increase was implemented, the eighth round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first round of price reduction after the end of military parade production restrictions. The spot quotation was stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. In the short - term, the market sentiment drive is greater than the fundamental support. Policy news may still cause disturbances. The price of coking coal is expected to remain volatile [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal futures price fluctuated greatly, with the futures market showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, and the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal. After the seventh - round price increase was implemented, the eighth - round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first - round price reduction, with the spot quotation being stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 22, at the press conference, the central bank governor said that China's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose; the head of the financial regulatory agency said that the "white - list" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan, supporting nearly 20 million housing constructions; the CSRC chairman said that as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan"; the head of the SAFE said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits at the end of July [5]. - Five ministries jointly issued the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years, and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexican measures on September 25, which involve products such as automobiles and parts, textiles, and steel [6]. - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [6]. - On September 27, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that a new round of automobile industry stable - growth plan would be implemented, and preferential tax policies for new - energy vehicles would be optimized [6]. - In mid - September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.41 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period, a 42.8% increase from the beginning of the year, and a 15.9% increase from the same period last year [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the price of coking coal rose, increasing the coking enterprises' production costs and narrowing profit margins. With the approaching of holidays, downstream replenishment demand was released [2]. - On the demand side, the overall steel mill operation remained at a high level. The rigid demand for coke increased with the approaching of holidays, but the terminal consumption was average, and steel products were accumulating inventory, so the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. The price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and new macro - level changes [29]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for coking profit, stay on the sidelines [30].