钢材周报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 供需双弱 钢价震荡向下 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：上海优化调整房地产政策措施，其中提到，符 合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数；成年单身人士 按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策。对符合条件的非本市 户籍居民家庭购买的第一套住房暂免征收房产税。近日 工信部等部门引发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025- 2026年）》，提到加大减量置换力度，将加速 ...

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The "2025 Version Plan" aims to address the core contradiction of "supply-demand imbalance" in the steel industry, emphasizing quality and efficiency. The plan sets a target of approximately 4% annual growth in the industry's added value for 2025-2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits and optimizing market supply and demand [2][3] - The plan highlights the need for precise control of production capacity and emphasizes the importance of upgrading production processes and equipment to enhance operational efficiency and reduce low-efficiency capacity [3][4] - The report indicates that the steel industry is currently experiencing a significant recovery in profits, with a year-on-year profit increase of 5175.4% in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July, totaling 64.36 billion [5] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The "2025 Version Plan" is a key policy aimed at promoting stable operation and structural optimization in the steel industry, directly addressing the issues of excessive supply and insufficient effective demand [2][3] Industry Management - The plan introduces enhanced industry management measures, including the revision of capacity replacement implementation methods and support for low-carbon steelmaking processes, aiming to facilitate industry consolidation and upgrade [3][4] Equipment and Process Upgrades - Specific measures for equipment and process upgrades are detailed, including the promotion of advanced electric furnaces and the replacement of outdated equipment to improve the efficiency of quality assets [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the steel industry is expected to stabilize and improve, with structural investment opportunities in companies with high gross margins and strong cost control, particularly in special steel enterprises and leading steel companies [5]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-08-29 跨期：无 跨品种：无 政策暖风再起，钢价底部震荡 钢材：政策暖风再起，钢价底部震荡 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3129元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3385元/吨。现货方面今日钢材现货成交整体一般偏好，低 价成交好，收货明显增多，市场投机情绪好转。昨日钢材成交10.27万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材基本面供需双增，库存持续增加，产业矛盾积累，钢价承压。板材消费韧性仍在，价格支撑尚 有，淡季格局暂无改观。 昨日五部门联合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案》。关注，关注政策影响、后续供需表现、电炉亏损状况，及资金 方向选择。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量微降，铁矿震荡上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走强。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于790.5元/吨，涨幅1.74%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格偏强运行，贸易商报价积极性尚可，钢厂采购多以刚需为主。本期日 均铁水产量240.13万吨，环比减少0.62万吨。本期45港铁矿总库存13763万吨，环比减 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention on short - term long opportunities around the blast furnace cost. There are still inventory build - up issues, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace static cost and provides support for iron - water production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a limited impact on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Although the basic supply - demand of double - silicon is resilient, the high inventory still poses a de - stocking pressure. The industry's average profit has been significantly repaired [5][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak and volatile. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line investors in long positions should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments in the second half of the year and future capacity release expectations. However, the impact of policies on the steel sector may be greater than the price itself, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; I2605 closed at 765.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.46%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83%; I2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.74%; J2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan or 0.51%; JM2601 closed at 1175 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 0.90% [1]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis also had corresponding changes on August 28 [1]. Spot Market - On August 28, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280 yuan/ton, Tianjin rebar at 3240 yuan/ton, Guangzhou rebar at 3290 yuan/ton, Tangshan billet at 3020 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index at 103.9. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions also had different performances. Other spot prices such as those of coking coal and coke also had specific values and changes [1]. Steel - The steel market is still in a situation of inventory build - up, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract provides support. It is recommended to go short - term long around 3100 with the previous low as the stop - loss point, and conduct positive - spread rolling operations in the futures - cash market [4][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan" has limited impact. The supply - demand is resilient, but high inventory requires de - stocking. The industry profit has been repaired [5][6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot trading atmosphere has weakened, the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of price cuts in September. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the impact of mine accidents spreads, and industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities on price rallies [7][9]. Iron Ore - The steel apparent demand is rising, but inventory build - up may continue. The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments, but policy impacts may be significant, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for various black building materials, mostly rated as "oscillating". The specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [8] - Iron ore: Oscillating [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [10] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating [12] - Glass: Oscillating [14] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy's mention of stabilizing the growth of the steel industry had a limited positive impact, and the futures market showed a muted reaction. The overall black building materials market is expected to oscillate, with potential for a slight rebound if there are positive drivers. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the coming weeks and the recovery of furnace material supply [1][2]. - The black building materials market's cost has some support, but the expected weak demand during the peak season restricts the upside potential. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The steel industry's growth - stabilizing plan has led to a slight increase in the futures price. Steel spot trading is average, with more low - price transactions. This week, some steel mills resumed production and increased output, resulting in an increase in rebar production and stable hot - rolled coil production. During the transition between the off - season and peak season, rebar's apparent demand has improved month - on - month but is still lower year - on - year, and inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains resilient, and inventory also accumulates under high production. The apparent demand for medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products has weakened, and inventory has increased. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: During the off - season to peak - season transition, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Supply and demand will be affected around the military parade, and the impact of blast furnace production restrictions may be reflected in next week's data. After the parade, pig iron production may remain at a high level, and the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely in the short term. Focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Port trading volume decreased slightly. The spot market prices increased, and port trading volume decreased. Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, approaching last year's level. Total supply is relatively stable. Pig iron production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of a decline in pig iron production as some steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance at the end of the month, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level. This week, port inventory decreased, berthing increased, and factory inventory decreased, resulting in a slight decline in total inventory [3][8]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited negative fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. Due to the pressure on finished products, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has decreased. Factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the available inventory days are at a low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. Although the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished product prices, resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: In the futures market, the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan and the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of price increases have led to an oscillating market. In the spot market, the price in Rizhao Port decreased. As the military parade approaches, the production of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production. Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but due to the military parade, the production of some steel mills in North China will be restricted, and transportation is tightened, resulting in low inventory in local steel mills and common rush - order situations. Some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the upstream coking enterprise inventory is still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, the production restrictions on coke are stronger than those on steel mills. In the short term, the coke market will remain tight. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [11]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: In the futures market, due to the tightening of coal mine safety supervision before the military parade and the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan, the market oscillates. In the spot market, the price of some coking coal decreased. On the supply side, the production of some coal mines is restricted due to accidents and other factors, and safety inspections are increasing. Some coal mines have voluntarily reduced production, resulting in a tightening of coal mine production before the parade. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, and the impact of the military parade is currently limited. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differences. Coking production in some areas is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on - demand, and spot trading is weak and stable. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the previous inventory reduction to a low level and a large number of pre - sold orders mean that there is no obvious inventory pressure for now [3][12]. - Outlook: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [12]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The spot price is stable. The demand in the off - season has decreased, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased significantly to a high level this year. Downstream has limited ability to replenish inventory. As the traditional peak season approaches, some upstream manufacturers are promoting sales by raising prices, and downstream purchasing has stabilized overall. On the supply side, a new production line has been ignited recently, and there are still production lines to be ignited in Shahe. The daily melting volume is expected to increase steadily. As the delivery approaches, the spot price has decreased, and the delivery logic is becoming more dominant. The fundamentals are still weak, and the reverse - spread logic is still stable. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term [14]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the delivery contradiction trading, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long term, capacity reduction through marketization is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market is weakening, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. In the short term, the production in Alxa is affected, but it is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand purchasing. There are still some production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has bottomed out and rebounded. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to increase steadily. The downstream purchasing of light soda ash has remained flat, but the overall downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. As the shipping problem is resolved, the inventory in the middle reaches has accumulated, and the downstream willingness to receive goods is weak. The futures price may return to fundamental trading [18]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [18]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The futures price of manganese silicon first declined weakly and then oscillated upward. In the spot market, a new round of steel procurement has started, and the market is waiting and watching. The spot price adjustment is small. The October manganese ore price quote is flat month - on - month. Recently, port trading has been sluggish, but miners are reluctant to reduce prices, and port ore prices have not fluctuated much. On the demand side, steel mills' profits are good, and finished product production is still at a high level. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, but in September, as the peak season begins and after the parade, finished product production is expected to increase. On the supply side, manganese silicon production has reached a high level this year, and market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is temporarily controllable. Due to cost support, the short - term decline in manganese silicon prices is limited. However, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, there is still downward pressure on prices in the long term. Pay attention to the reduction in raw material costs [19]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The futures price of ferrosilicon continued to decline. In the spot market, trading was weak, but manufacturers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the spot price adjustment was small. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated recently, and ferrosilicon production has gradually reached a high level. On the demand side, steel production has remained stable at a high level, and the steel - making demand for ferrosilicon still has some resilience. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline, but in the peak season, finished product production will gradually increase. In the metal magnesium market, supply pressure has increased, while demand is still weak, and the magnesium ingot price is under pressure [20]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large. Due to cost support, the short - term downward adjustment space for ferrosilicon prices is limited. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and in the long term, the price center will tend to decline. Pay attention to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in major production areas [20].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually bottom out as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with total inventory shifting to accumulation. Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.5203 million tons, down 161,000 tons from the previous week [2]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.6742 million tons, an increase of 4,500 tons week-on-week, while total inventory reached 13.5189 million tons, up 153,900 tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, while electric furnace operating rates increased to 62.82% [2]. Profitability Insights - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 351.8 yuan, up 21.7 yuan week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit averaged 237.8 yuan, down 6.3 yuan [3]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73% from the previous week [3]. Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, with a decrease in the negative impact from the real estate sector and steady growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing [4]. - The steel industry has been in a loss phase since Q3 2022, with over 30% of steel companies still operating at a loss. However, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [4]. - If supply policies are enacted, the speed of supply contraction may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [4].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [1] - The financial policies supporting new industrialization will be improved in collaboration with relevant departments, promoting deeper integration of production and finance [1] - Continuous optimization of the business environment in terms of policy, talent, funding, and market will be pursued [1] Group 2 - Xinyu Securities indicates that ultra-low emission transformation may become a key measure in the new round of supply-side reform in the steel industry [1] - By February 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to gradually convert ultra-low emission requirements into mandatory emission standards, compelling traditional industries to upgrade [1] - From 2026, companies that fail to complete full-process transformations may not pass regulatory audits, indicating significant policy-driven effects [1] Group 3 - Regional and cross-regional capacity consolidation and the promotion of electric furnace steel are expected to positively influence the industry's supply-side reform [1] - The only ETF tracking the steel industry (515210) follows the CSI Steel Index, selecting listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the steel sector [1] - The constituent stocks cover upstream and downstream enterprises in the steel industry chain, demonstrating significant industry concentration characteristics [1]

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a high of 1370.00 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately 6.66% [1] - One德期货 indicates that the inventory reduction is exceeding expectations, and there is an anticipated improvement in demand during the peak season, driving prices [1] - New Century Futures notes that while deep processing orders for glass have slightly weakened, speculative demand remains strong due to rising prices [2] Group 2 - Supply pressures are expected to persist as production is projected to increase following the ignition of production lines, with a need for daily melting volume to drop below 15.4 million tons to meet seasonal inventory reduction [2] - 金信期货 highlights that there has not been a significant loss in supply-side cold repairs, and the market is currently driven more by news and sentiment rather than fundamental changes [2] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment phase, with a significant year-on-year decline in housing completion area, making it difficult for glass demand to rebound significantly [2]

Group 1: Black Industry - Iron ore: Recent trading focuses on "anti-involution + stable growth", with the black market sentiment boosted. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3109.1 tons, a week-on-week increase of 122.0 tons. In the medium to long term, the supply will gradually recover, demand will be relatively low, and port inventories will enter the accumulation phase. It is expected to follow the trend of finished products, with support around 800 yuan/ton [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The expectation of anti-involution policies is fermenting, and the supply-side expectation is rising. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still faces pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is strengthening. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. - Rebar: The "anti-involution" has triggered a rise in bullish sentiment on the supply side. In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the profit of five major steel products is acceptable. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, it is supported by the macro and policy aspects [2]. - Glass: The "anti-involution" trading may continue. The demand side shows that the deep-processing orders for glass have weakened slightly month-on-month, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply side is expected to increase production, and there is still pressure. In the long term, the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Group 2: Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and risk appetite has decreased. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has risen by 3bps, and the market interest rate has consolidated. Treasury bonds have rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]. Group 3: Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The pulp fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate mostly [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at the port last week was 62,400 cubic meters, a week-on-week increase of 3,600 cubic meters. The cost-side support has increased. In the short term, the supply pressure is not significant, and the price will fluctuate mainly [6]. Group 4: Oil, Fat, and Feed Industry - Oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil in June decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, while the inventory increased to 2.03 million tons. The supply of three major oils is abundant, and it is in the off-season of demand. After the previous rise, it may correct in the short term [6]. - Meals: The estimated production of US soybeans has been lowered, but the increase in the end-of-year inventory has exceeded expectations. The consumption expectation of US soybean crushing is driven by the favorable biofuel policy, which supports the futures price of US soybeans. After the previous rise, it may fluctuate and correct in the short term [6]. - Soybean No. 2: The cost and export expectations boost US soybeans, but the supply in South America is still continuing. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and it may fluctuate and correct in the short term [6]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to decline. The average settlement price of live pigs in key slaughtering enterprises has risen slightly. The opening rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined. In the future, the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8]. Group 6: Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply in the natural rubber production areas is tight, and the acquisition price has generally increased. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry has increased structurally. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide-range fluctuating trend [10]. - PX: Under the negative impact of supply-demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the compression space of the PXN spread is not large, and the PX price fluctuates with oil prices [10]. - PTA: The cost side fluctuates, the overall supply of PTA has increased, and the load of downstream polyester factories has decreased slightly. In the medium term, the supply-demand of PTA weakens. In the short term, the price mainly fluctuates with the cost [10]. - MEG: Recently, the arrival volume of MEG has been small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, the cost side has recovered, the supply-demand has improved, and the MEG market fluctuates strongly [10]. - PR: The commodity sentiment has returned to rationality, the raw material support is average, and the polyester bottle chip market may fluctuate horizontally [10]. - PF: Factors such as weak upper and lower support and increased supply pressure of polyester staple fiber may re-dominate the market. Without new positive boosts, the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate weakly [10].