Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a reduction in production capacity and an improvement in quality, leading to stabilization in prices and profits in 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply - A new capacity replacement policy is set to be implemented, which is expected to continue reducing crude steel production in 2026 [6] - The capacity replacement policy will increase the reduction ratio in non-key areas to at least 1.5:1, enhancing long-term capacity constraints [14][18] - The overall crude steel production is anticipated to decrease year-on-year due to differentiated production restrictions and proactive production control by enterprises [6][28] Group 2: Demand - Investment stability and domestic demand expansion are expected to lead to a recovery in steel demand in 2026 [6] - The construction sector is projected to see a recovery in fixed asset investment, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [36] - Manufacturing sectors such as automotive, machinery, and home appliances are expected to maintain growth in steel demand due to supportive policies [6][57] Group 3: Costs - Steel cost pressures are expected to continue easing in 2026, with iron ore supply slightly increasing and demand stabilizing [6][61] - The global iron ore supply is projected to see a slight increase, with the four major mining companies expected to have a production growth rate of about 1.8% in 2026 [66] - The overall balance between iron ore supply and demand is expected to remain weak, with prices anticipated to fluctuate downward [6][61] Group 4: Prices and Profits - The reduction in production and improvement in quality are expected to help stabilize steel prices and profits in 2026 [6] - Demand for flat steel is expected to remain stronger than for long steel, with policies aimed at further tapping into consumption potential [6] - The anticipated decline in crude steel production, primarily driven by loss-making enterprises and policy-induced reductions, will contribute to a mild improvement in the steel supply-demand landscape [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector and those involved in restructuring and integration, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [6] - In the special steel sector, high-performance steel products are encouraged, with companies like Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co. expected to benefit from policy support [6][7]

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，2025Q1-Q3钢铁行业同比扭亏为盈，盈利能力显著改 善。需求侧地产步入调整期，同时新基建、新能源等制造用钢的兴起，支撑板材与特钢景气，行业集中 度稳步提升;反内卷政策逐步深化，出清有序推进;中长期看，钢铁行业稳增长、强调绿色化、智能化与 科技创新，高品质特殊钢与高端装备用特种合金钢具备稀缺性，相关龙头占据技术与资金优势有望持续 受益。当前钢铁是良好的配置时点，政策支撑与业绩边际改善可期。 行业边际改善迹象已现。1)2025年至今钢铁涨幅全行业第8，超额收益可观，Q3单季度市场表现优异， 普钢持仓市值维持高位;2)2025Q1-Q3钢铁行业实现营业收入14,252.05亿/+6.4%，归母净利润218.53亿， 同比扭亏为盈，2025Q3单季度实现营业收入4,801.23亿/+0.1%，环比-0.6%，归母净利润87.16亿，同比 扭亏为盈;3)反内卷政策逐步深化，环保与能效标准明确且可监测度高，叠加产能置换重启，行业出清 有望加速推进，行业集中度有望提升。 2026年展望 与市场不同观点在于，该行对钢铁行业2026年表现持乐观态度，主要基于：1)利好政策的持续推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry has shown significant improvement in operational efficiency in the first three quarters of the year, with a total revenue of 4.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%, and a profit of 96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The cumulative crude steel production in China for the first three quarters was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with expectations to maintain a downward trend for the entire year [4]. - Domestic apparent consumption of crude steel was 649 million tons, down 5.7% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive year of decline [4]. - Steel exports increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 87.96 million tons, while imports decreased by 12.6% to 4.53 million tons, resulting in a net export of 96.76 million tons, up 21.0% [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to face challenges in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand decline, particularly with ongoing downturns in the real estate market and negative growth in infrastructure investment [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined a plan for the steel industry aiming for an average annual growth of 4% in industrial added value, emphasizing efficiency and quality over expansion [6]. - The industry is encouraged to adopt a disciplined approach to production and inventory management to mitigate pressures on supply and demand balance [5][6].

钢铁行业接下来两年的发展目标也在日前落定，产量调控依然是关键方向。9月份，工信部等五部门联 合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，指出"供需失衡是影响行业发展质量和效益的 主要矛盾"，提出"钢铁行业增加值年均增长4%左右，经济效益企稳回升，市场供需更趋平衡，产业结 构更加优化，有效供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平显著提升"的总目标。 为了解决供给与需求阶段性错配的矛盾，控产成为近几年钢铁行业的主题，钢铁企业也因此获得了盈利 修复的空间。数据显示，前三季度重点统计钢铁企业累计营业收入为4.56万亿元，同比下降2.36%；营 业成本为4.26万亿元，同比下降3.88%，收入降幅小于成本降幅1.52个百分点；利润总额960亿元，同比 增长1.9倍，行业效益相比去年同期明显改善；销售利润率为2.10%，同比上升1.39个百分点。 姜维表示，今年前三季度，钢铁行业经营效益同比明显改善，为全年稳运行、增效益奠定了良好基础。 四季度，只要全行业勠力同心加强自律，坚持遵循"以销定产、以效定产、以现定销"的经营原则，预计 今年有望实现2022年以来最好的经济效益水平。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者朱玥怡 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is positive, and the profitability of steel enterprises is acceptable. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [4][5]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [7]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation - In the first quarter of 2025, the prices of black varieties were generally weak. In the second quarter, due to tariff frictions and a weakening macro - market sentiment, finished product prices were under pressure. In mid - to late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded, driving up the prices of black - series products. In July, the "anti - involution" sentiment boosted prices, but in mid - to late August, prices fluctuated downwards. In October, high inventory suppressed steel prices [14]. - In 2025, construction steel consumption declined, but manufacturing steel consumption and steel exports increased. The difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar prices was positive, expanding from July to August and then showing a narrowing trend recently [20][24]. Steel Cycle Turns Positive, and Corporate Profits are Acceptable - In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of mid - to late October, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 55%. From January to August 2025, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 83.7 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [32]. High Production Enthusiasm of Steel Mills, and Output Remains Relatively High - The good profits of steel enterprises have enhanced their production enthusiasm. As of mid - to late October, the daily average output of molten iron from 247 blast furnaces was around 2.41 million tons, about 80,000 tons higher than the same period in 2024. The daily consumption of scrap steel also remained at a high level [38][40]. At the End of the Peak Consumption Season, the Inventory Pressure of Finished Products Remains High - During the traditional off - season in July and August, high profitability drove up production. In September and October, most steel mills maintained high operating rates. The inventory of finished products did not show seasonal reduction, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was particularly prominent. As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the total inventory of five major steel products was 15.823 million tons, with an unsatisfactory inventory reduction rate. If demand does not increase significantly, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices [51][57]. Summary - The macro - sentiment is positive, and steel enterprises have acceptable profitability. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [64][65]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [66].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that steel demand is expected to gradually stabilize, with over 40% of steel companies currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [1] - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes the continuation of production reduction policies, aiming to support advanced enterprises while forcing inefficient capacities to exit, thus promoting a dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] - The expectation of supply-side contraction is maintained, suggesting a gradual recovery of the steel fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects listed companies involved in both ordinary and special steel businesses to reflect the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The index constituents are primarily steel manufacturing enterprises, exhibiting strong cyclical characteristics, with industry allocation mainly focused on raw materials, highlighting the close relationship between the steel industry and market dynamics as well as economic cycles [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the coking coal futures price fluctuated significantly, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, while the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market generally continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal with the same trend. After the seventh round of price increase was implemented, the eighth round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first round of price reduction after the end of military parade production restrictions. The spot quotation was stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. In the short - term, the market sentiment drive is greater than the fundamental support. Policy news may still cause disturbances. The price of coking coal is expected to remain volatile [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal futures price fluctuated greatly, with the futures market showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, and the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal. After the seventh - round price increase was implemented, the eighth - round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first - round price reduction, with the spot quotation being stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 22, at the press conference, the central bank governor said that China's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose; the head of the financial regulatory agency said that the "white - list" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan, supporting nearly 20 million housing constructions; the CSRC chairman said that as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan"; the head of the SAFE said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits at the end of July [5]. - Five ministries jointly issued the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years, and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexican measures on September 25, which involve products such as automobiles and parts, textiles, and steel [6]. - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [6]. - On September 27, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that a new round of automobile industry stable - growth plan would be implemented, and preferential tax policies for new - energy vehicles would be optimized [6]. - In mid - September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.41 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period, a 42.8% increase from the beginning of the year, and a 15.9% increase from the same period last year [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the price of coking coal rose, increasing the coking enterprises' production costs and narrowing profit margins. With the approaching of holidays, downstream replenishment demand was released [2]. - On the demand side, the overall steel mill operation remained at a high level. The rigid demand for coke increased with the approaching of holidays, but the terminal consumption was average, and steel products were accumulating inventory, so the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. The price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and new macro - level changes [29]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for coking profit, stay on the sidelines [30].

Group 1 - Steel stocks saw significant gains, with China Hanking (03788) up 5.3% to HKD 4.37, Maanshan Iron & Steel (00323) up 4.92% to HKD 2.56, China Oriental Group (00581) up 4.69% to HKD 1.34, and Ansteel (00347) up 4.33% to HKD 2.17 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 22, setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years [1] - The plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," providing a pathway for structural adjustment and high-quality development in China's steel industry [1] - The work plan includes measures for precise control of capacity and output, promoting graded management of steel enterprises, prohibiting new capacity, and guiding resource allocation towards competitive enterprises to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities reported that from January to August 2025, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises nationwide reached CNY 46,929.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [2] - The profit of the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry totaled CNY 837 million from January to August, compared to a loss of CNY 169.7 million in the same period last year [2] - In August 2025, the industry's profit reached CNY 193.4 million, an increase of CNY 12.6 million from the previous month, marking a new monthly profit high for the year [2] - The industry's profit is expected to continue improving due to supply-side adjustments and expectations of transformation and upgrading, along with a trend of improving demand, indicating a positive long-term outlook for steel fundamentals [2]

Group 1 - Steel stocks saw significant gains in the afternoon, with China Hanking (03788) up 5.3% to HKD 4.37, Maanshan Iron & Steel (00323) up 4.92% to HKD 2.56, China Oriental Group (00581) up 4.69% to HKD 1.34, and Ansteel (00347) up 4.33% to HKD 2.17 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 22, setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years [1] - The plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," providing a clear implementation path for structural adjustment and high-quality development in China's steel industry [1] Group 2 - From January to August 2025, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises reached CNY 46,929.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [2] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry reported a total profit of CNY 837 million from January to August 2025, compared to a loss of CNY 169.7 million in the same period last year [2] - In August 2025, the industry's profit reached CNY 193.4 million, an increase of CNY 12.6 million from the previous month, marking a new monthly profit high for the year [2] - The industry's profit is expected to continue improving due to supply-side adjustments and transformation upgrades, along with a trend of improving demand, indicating a positive long-term outlook for steel fundamentals [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to strengthen the supply and price stability of coking coal and other raw fuels, reducing market expectations for anti - involution. Coupled with the cautious capital market before the long holiday, the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the short term. It is recommended to stay cautious before the long holiday [6][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Disk Analysis - It includes futures price analysis, spread analysis (basis in dry tons), and futures position net position analysis, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [8][12][13] 3.2 Important Market Information - The third - quarter (110th) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and promote economic stability and reasonable prices. As of the end of August, the country's cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing rapidly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [16] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 105.22 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31. Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 0.514 million tons to 60.829 million tons, while Brazilian shipments increased by 5.35 million tons to 32.357 million tons [20][24] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - It involves indicators such as the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [26][28][29] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 6.22%. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51% and a year - on - year increase of 6.41%. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 39.40%. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, an increase of 0.0134 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 0.0038 million tons. At 45 ports, the total inventory was 140.0028 million tons, an increase of 1.992 million tons, the daily average port clearance volume decreased by 0.0277 million tons, and the number of ships in port decreased by 5. The Indonesian mining minister stated that if miners meet the requirements related to the land restoration fund deposit, their mining licenses can be restored from the "suspended" state to the "normal" state [31] 3.6 Market Outlook - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has reduced market expectations for anti - involution, and due to the cautious capital market before the long holiday, the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the short term. It is recommended to stay cautious before the long holiday [32] 3.7 Operation Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and be vigilant about the risks of holding positions during the long holiday. For arbitrage and options, it is also recommended to wait and see [7][33]