周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 第 一 部 分 市 场 观 点 需求逐步复苏，盘面预计震荡回升 双焦周报 20260302 焦煤基本面 弘业期货研究院 HOLLY FUTURES INSIGHTS 数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、弘业期货研究院 • （1）供给：523家样本矿山开工率68.24%（+19.35%），523家样本矿山精煤日均产量64.9万吨（+19.02），314家 洗煤厂产能利用率22.73%（-9.55%），精煤日均产量16.91万吨（-7.43），节后煤矿复产增加，同比农历年速度 偏慢，后期产量仍将回升。进口煤方面，节后甘其毛都口岸蒙煤通关量恢复至高位，整体供应回升。 • （2）需求：247家钢厂铁水日产量223.28万吨（+2.79），高炉开工率80.22%（+0.09%），钢厂炼焦煤可用天数 12.65天（-0.41），230家独立焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数12.28天（-1.08），钢厂高炉开工率微幅回升，铁水日均产 量有所增加，钢厂炼焦煤可用天数下降，焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数下降，下游以消耗现有库存为主，补库有所延后。 • （3）库存：523家样本矿山 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [4] - Cautiously bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [4] 2. Core观点 of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in January 2026 far exceeded expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. Fed officials' statements and market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed. Indonesia plans to significantly cut nickel production, which will impact the global nickel supply structure. The domestic futures market had a mixed performance at night. For different commodities, their market conditions are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policy, and macro - economic data [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News on the Day International News - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January 2026, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages rose 0.4% month - on - month. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been postponed from June to July. Trump called for significant rate cuts [1][5] Domestic News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The base period for CPI and PPI data was changed in 2025, and the impact of the base - period change was small [6] Industry News - China successfully carried out important tests in the manned lunar exploration project, achieving a significant breakthrough [7] 3.2. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 was almost flat, the European STOXX50 rose slightly, the FTSE China A50 futures fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.80%, London gold and silver prices rose significantly, and most LME metals prices increased. ICE 11 - number sugar fell, while ICE 2 - number cotton rose, and CBOT commodities had mixed performances [8] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: The US three major indexes declined slightly, and the previous trading day's index showed small fluctuations. The building materials sector led the rise, and the communication sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but potential disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday need to be watched out for [3][9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds had mixed performances. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell to 1.79%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repo injection of 4035 billion yuan. After the US non - farm data, the Fed rate - cut expectations were postponed, and US Treasury yields rose. China's economic data showed a recovery in consumption demand. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize. Caution is advised before the holiday [10] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Iran and the US held indirect talks, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports may decline in February [11] - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected import volume in the future is known [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. Domestic and some Thai production areas are in the off - season, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The all - steel tire production is stable. Risk control and position reduction are recommended before the Spring Festival [13] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations and macro factors. Positions need to be gradually controlled before the holiday [14] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass inventory increased, and soda ash inventory increased slightly. Glass supply and demand are being repaired, and soda ash supply is slightly shrinking. Positions need to be controlled before the holiday [15] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at high levels. After the US non - farm data, the rate - cut expectations cooled down, and precious metals prices dropped. In the long term, factors supporting precious metals remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [2][16][17] - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Copper prices may enter an adjustment stage in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be monitored [3][18] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices oscillated at night. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need attention [19] - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum price is at a high level. The aluminum plant operating rate is rising, but the aluminum - water ratio is decreasing, and the downstream enterprise operating rate is falling. Aluminum ingot inventory is accumulating. Although the short - term industry situation is weak, there is support in the long term [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production decreased. Demand also declined. Social inventory decreased. The market sentiment weakened, and the futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities after volatility reduction and be cautious [21] Black - Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. Mine production decreased before the Spring Festival, and Mongolian coal imports decreased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke has limited growth, and the downstream replenishment is almost completed. After the holiday, factors such as iron - water output and mine operations need to be focused on [22] - **Steel**: As the Spring Festival approaches, steel production decreased slightly, and supply is expected to increase later. Steel inventories increased, and demand from the construction industry weakened. The domestic policy environment is still good, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23] - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, mainly from Brazil. Port inventory increased, and domestic iron - concentrate production decreased. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly. Steel mills' demand for iron ore will be based on demand. The iron ore price will oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices rose. Brazil's soybean harvest rate increased, and the USDA raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production. Although the data is bearish, the market has digested it. Domestic bean meal prices followed the foreign market, but future supply pressure may still exist [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil prices fell, while rapeseed oil prices rose slightly. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased, exports increased, and production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the northern hemisphere is in a production - increasing cycle. The domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and imports are high. The price is expected to oscillate [28] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate is decreasing, and textile mills' replenishment is coming to an end. There is still some demand support, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the direct - subsidy policy [29] - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices continued to be weak. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and the spot price is under pressure, which will continue to affect the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the daily slaughter volume of group enterprises and downstream slaughter volume on prices [30] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 1.42%. The spot freight rate is expected to be stable, and the market is expected to oscillate before the holiday. After the holiday, the verification of photovoltaic exports and the implementation of price - increase letters need attention [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Cautious bearish: Crude oil, methanol, apple, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, container shipping to Europe [5] - Cautiously bullish: Stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, corn [5] Core View of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 due to factors such as the technology cycle, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [13] - Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank gold purchases [3][4] - The oil market's geopolitical risk premium has decreased, but the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027 [2][16] - The copper market may experience a phased correction due to supply disruptions and weakening downstream demand [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day - **International News:** US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair and has narrowed the candidates to four, with the final decision possibly announced next week. He also responded to the "kill line" phenomenon and blamed the Biden administration [7] - **Domestic News:** In 2026, China's macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand, including optimizing policies, formulating plans, and promoting high-tech industries [8] - **Industry News:** During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve water resource management and conservation, aiming for an irrigation water utilization coefficient of over 0.6 and a water-saving industry scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined, while the US dollar index also fell [11] - London gold and silver prices rose, while most base metals and agricultural products declined [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial:** The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, while the bond market has stabilized due to policy support and a cooling equity market [13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals:** Crude oil prices may be under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks and increased supply expectations. Methanol prices are expected to rise in the short term, while rubber prices may be volatile [16][17][18] - **Metals:** Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, while copper and zinc prices may experience a phased correction. Aluminum prices may be supported by low inventory in the long term [22][23][24][26] - **Black Metals:** Coking coal and steel prices may be strong in the short term, while iron ore prices are expected to remain stable [28][29][30] - **Agricultural Products:** Protein meal prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and a bumper harvest in South America. Vegetable oil prices may be supported by strong exports and policy expectations [31][32] - **Shipping Index:** Container shipping rates to Europe are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to increased supply and weak demand [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in public fund sales regulations in China, the impact of U.S. military actions in Venezuela on oil prices, and the overall economic indicators reflecting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][3]. Group 1: Public Fund Sales Regulations - The new regulations for public fund sales have officially been implemented, easing the redemption fees for bond funds. Individual investors holding bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors for more than 30 days will be exempt from redemption fees, alleviating concerns about liquidity and trading characteristics of bond funds [1][3]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations during the holiday period. The U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, are expected to lead to increased instability in the region, which may affect oil exports that were already under U.S. sanctions. Short-term oil prices are likely to trend upwards due to these developments, while medium-term impacts may arise from the anticipated reduction in Venezuelan oil production [2][12]. - The long-term outlook will depend on the control exerted by U.S. proxies in Venezuela, with the exit of Venezuelan production potentially allowing OPEC to increase output, leading to a subsequent decline in oil prices after an initial rise [2][12]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for February rose to 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone and an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1][3]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected, reinforcing economic resilience and reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in January, which in turn pushed long-term yields higher [3][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dual焦 (coke and coking coal) prices are expected to steadily rise by 2026 due to policy support and supply constraints, while the steel market is transitioning to a dynamic balance, with price stability anticipated [1] - The steel industry's main contradiction this year is that the decline in demand is greater than the decline in production, leading to a continuous decrease in crude steel apparent consumption for the fifth consecutive year [3] - The real estate sector is undergoing deep adjustments, with infrastructure investment growth turning negative, and manufacturing investment growth dropping below 3%, which is expected to limit demand growth in the steel market [3] Group 2 - The dual焦 market is currently in a "tight balance" state, with low inventory strategies maintained by both coke producers and steel mills, while coal prices have been fluctuating [4][5] - The demand structure for coal is undergoing significant changes, with a slight increase in thermal coal consumption, but overall coal prices are expected to experience a similar trend of decline followed by recovery [5] - The steel industry is expected to maintain demand resilience under policy support, but environmental restrictions will limit significant growth in焦炭 (coke) demand, leading to ongoing profit competition among焦钢 (coke and steel) enterprises [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the retail industry in fostering a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic circulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for a shift towards quality and service-driven growth [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts amid internal disagreements, with market pricing indicating a high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with plans for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities such as government bonds, oils, and copper, noting that the 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.83% [2][10] - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience in foreign trade [2][10] - In the oil market, palm oil prices have shown slight increases, while soybean oil prices are under pressure due to improved supply expectations [3][27] Group 3 - The article discusses the copper market, indicating a continued tight supply of concentrates and a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [18] - The article also mentions the performance of various commodities, including a decline in aluminum prices due to uncertainties surrounding future Fed rate cuts and a slight decrease in zinc prices amid stable supply [20][19] Group 4 - The article outlines the recent developments in the agricultural sector, particularly in soybean planting in Brazil, which has reached 86% completion, and the impact of this on global supply dynamics [26] - It also notes that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain strong due to stable demand and limited supply, despite some pressure from macroeconomic factors [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market were weakly stable. On the 1st, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and other places tendered to lower the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the first round of coke price reduction was implemented. Currently, the profits of coking plants have rebounded and are basically in a profitable state. Coke enterprises maintain normal production rhythms and operate with low inventories. The price of coking coal, the raw material, has been continuously falling recently, with many auction failures, causing coke to lose cost support. Overall, the pessimistic sentiment in the spot market remains unchanged, while the futures market is affected by capital games, showing a small rebound followed by a sharp decline. It is expected that the start of winter storage replenishment in mid - to late December will improve the fundamentals and sentiment. The current valuation of the futures market is too low, and the valuation will gradually recover after the sentiment reverses [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Price Changes**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weakly stable this week. The first - round coke price reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton by mainstream steel mills in Hebei and other places was implemented on the 1st [2] - **Coking Plant Situation**: Coking plant profits have rebounded and are basically profitable, with normal production rhythms and low - inventory operations [2] - **Raw Material Situation**: The price of coking coal has been falling, and there have been many auction failures, resulting in coke losing cost support [2] - **Market Sentiment**: The spot market is pessimistic, while the futures market is affected by capital games, showing a small rebound followed by a sharp decline [2] - **Outlook**: Winter storage replenishment in mid - to late December is expected to improve the fundamentals and sentiment, and the undervalued futures market will gradually recover [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total coking coal inventory (10,000 tons) | 2103.97 | 2106.1 | -2.13 | -0.10% | | Total coke inventory (10,000 tons) | 882.99 | 884.68 | -1.69 | -0.19% | | Average daily pig iron output of steel mills (10,000 tons) | 232.3 | 234.68 | -2.38 | -1.01% | | Profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises (yuan/ton) | 30 | 46 | -16 | -34.78% | [4]

Core Insights - The futures market for coking coal and coke has experienced a short-term rally, with coking coal and coke main contracts showing reduced declines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for coking coal has narrowed its decline to 1.19%, currently priced at 1,084 yuan per ton [1] - The main contract for coke has narrowed its decline to 1.92%, currently priced at 1,609.5 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [2] - Coking Coal: Sideways [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [6] 2. Core Views - Steel market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market continues to rebound. However, the improvement of the weak industrial reality is limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron ore prices are running strongly, but the overall valuation is high, and there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future, which may put pressure on prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded significantly due to supply disturbances. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the demand for coke remains resilient [3][4]. - The support of rigid demand for thermal coal has weakened, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to decline [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3133 yuan/ton and 3345 yuan/ton respectively. Spot transactions are average, with weak rigid demand and more low - price purchases in the futures - spot market. The basis has shrunk. The inventory of building materials is being depleted, iron - water production is slightly decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious. Short - term macro sentiment has warmed up, and raw material support is strong [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to rise yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties are strong. Traders' quotes mostly follow the market, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative spot trading volume at major ports is 95.1 tons, up 6.61% from the previous day; the cumulative forward - looking spot trading volume is 123.0 tons (11 transactions), down 26.26% from the previous day. The current overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. Although steel mill profits continue to decline, production cuts are limited, iron - water production remains high, and the decline in iron ore demand is slow. There is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. Due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and concentrated working - face changes in the production areas, production has been continuously restricted. An accident in an individual coal mine has intensified market concerns about coal supply in the fourth quarter. The price of imported Mongolian coal fluctuates slightly, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased. The market sentiment of coking coal is positive, and the overall inventory is at a medium - low level, with resilient demand [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening. Rigid demand from chemical plants and large terminal customers has weakened. After major railway bureaus cancelled railway shipping discounts, the shipping cost of terminals has increased, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping has declined. At ports, the daily consumption of coastal terminals has decreased, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and buyers are more hesitant. The import coal market is weakly stable, with imported goods mostly in the hands of traders, and the winning bid prices of power plants are falling [6]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]