1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the global energy supply, with a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as inflation expectations and geopolitical risks [6][7]. - Different sectors in the market show various trends. For example, in the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply - demand relationships and price trends for different products; in the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors like the Middle - East situation and supply - demand balance; in the financial market, A - share markets have certain investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain [11][15][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 26, 2026, compared with March 25, 2026, among chemical products, methanol had the largest increase of 1.942% (from 3,089.00 to 3,149.00), and benzene had the largest decrease of 1.217% (from 10,105.00 to 9,982.00) [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **Middle - East Situation**: The attack on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities. Iran has retaliated, and the conflict has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries [6]. - **Fed's Decision**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a more conservative approach to future interest rate cuts, reflecting a cautious stance in the face of multiple risks [7]. - **China - US Relations**: China and the US will continue to communicate about Trump's visit to China [8]. - **Land Policy**: China is conducting a second - round pilot project to extend land contracts for another 30 years, emphasizing the protection of collective ownership and the prevention of "non - agricultural" and "non - grain" use of land [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under short - term supply pressure, but the international market has a tightening supply expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of long - term contracts at low prices, with a support level of 5400 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 5450 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a weak - oscillating trend. The supply pressure may increase in the short term, and the support level is in the range of 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton [11]. - **Peanut**: The peanut price is in a high - level oscillation. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with a resistance level around 8200 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The pig price is declining. The supply is sufficient, and the market is pessimistic. It is advisable to reduce short positions [11][13]. - **Egg**: The egg price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is sufficient, but there is also support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct intraday operations [13]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to conduct intraday range operations [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in a strong - oscillating trend. The supply is slightly affected by the import quota, and the demand is improving. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level around 15300 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is rising, and there is an expectation of increased exports. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - term contract correction [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is stable with a slight increase, and the first - round price increase of coke has not been responded to by steel mills. The price is in an oscillating adjustment [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper is recovering, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, with a resistance level in the 4220 - 4230 area and a support level of 4180 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue high - level consolidation in the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver are rising due to factors such as the tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's interest - rate cut signal. They are in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to risks [15][17]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are following the market correction. It is recommended to wait patiently for the price to stop falling and stabilize [17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic supply of alumina is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips and be vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market's supply - demand structure is improving, but the steel price is slightly under pressure in the short term and is expected to have a small - scale oscillating adjustment [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys are strong, mainly due to the energy premium caused by the geopolitical conflict. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips, but be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has broken through the previous high. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on price corrections, with a resistance level of 161500 yuan and a support level of 158000 yuan [19]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 25, A - share indexes rose, and different stock index options showed different trends in volume and open interest. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can take corresponding strategies according to price changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: On March 25, the three major indexes oscillated and rose. The A - share market has investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain. It is advisable to control positions and participate in the rebound [19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical disturbances are still fermenting, and the international oil price will continue to be highly volatile. The US inflation data is in line with expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and sector - differentiated pattern in the short term, and the bond market is expected to be weakly volatile. Different commodity prices will show different trends affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and inflation expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas, the Middle East conflict continues. Iran warns that oil prices may rise to $200 per barrel, and the IEA plans to release a record 4 billion barrels of reserves. The US 2 - month CPI data is in line with expectations, with the core CPI at a five - year low. The US stock market is weakly volatile, the US dollar index rises, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounds. Domestically, the A - share market closes higher with reduced trading volume, and the bond market continues to weaken [2][3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally close down. The latest US CPI data shows that inflation continues to cool, which cools the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and strengthens the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Although the release of oil reserves weakens the inflation logic, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, and it is difficult to form a trend - based market for now [4][5] Copper - LME copper fluctuates around $13,000. The US inflation is in line with expectations, and the cost - transfer signs of tariffs are emerging. The Iranian - US conflict has uncertain directions, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space this year. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of copper concentrates is low, and the domestic social inventory starts to be destocked. It is expected that copper prices will remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7] Aluminum - The price increase of aluminum slows down. Trump indicates that the military action against Iran is "about to end", but the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. It is expected that the upward trend of aluminum prices will slow down. If the strait is restricted for more than 4 weeks, there may be a shortage of raw material alumina in the Middle East, leading to passive production cuts [8][9] Alumina - The domestic supply - demand of alumina is relatively stable recently. The supply - side operating rate remains flat, and the consumption - side electrolytic aluminum enterprises resume most long - term order purchases. Overseas alumina prices fall, but freight prices rise. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [10] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum runs strongly. The Middle East geopolitical situation disturbs the market, and the price of primary aluminum remains strong. Although the supply of scrap aluminum has improved significantly, the price of scrap aluminum also rises with the increase of primary aluminum. The cost support of cast aluminum is strong, and it is expected to run strongly, but the sustainability depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [11] Zinc - The zinc price shows a volatile pattern. The US core inflation slows down, and the market expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September. The release of oil reserves fails to effectively relieve inflation concerns, and the US dollar strengthens, suppressing metals. The downstream consumption improvement is not obvious, and the inventory remains high, but the overseas zinc ore supply tightens, and the processing fees are under pressure. The zinc price has support at the bottom, and the short - term contradiction is not prominent, maintaining a volatile pattern [12] Lead - The lead price stabilizes. After the lead price falls, the downstream battery enterprises' purchase at low prices improves, but the high inventory and the inflow pressure of crude lead restrain the lead price. The short - term futures price is difficult to change the low - level volatile pattern [13] Tin - The tin price fluctuates narrowly. Investors are vigilant about the further escalation of the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index rises after a fall, and risk assets are under pressure. The downstream demand is average, and the inventory reduction in China needs to be observed. The supply - side concerns are alleviated, and the fundamental support weakens. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [14] Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates strongly. The US inflation is in line with expectations, but the Iranian - US conflict is uncertain, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space. The shipping obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz affects Indonesia's sulfur imports, increasing the production cost of nickel. The downstream steel mills enter the peak season, but the actual production may be lower than expected. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures fluctuate and rebound. The spot market trading shows signs of recovery. The downstream construction sites resume work, and the steel demand enters the release channel. The supply side also recovers, but the steel mills' production - increasing motivation is insufficient due to limited profit margins, and the inventory starts to decline. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [17] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures fluctuate strongly. After the Two Sessions, steel mills resume production, and the iron - water output rises, supporting the ore price. The overseas shipment decreases this week, but the arrival increases, and the domestic mines also resume production. The port inventory remains at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [18] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply recovers rapidly, the production increases steadily, and the inventory accumulates. After the first - round price cut of coke, the profit margin of coke enterprises narrows, and the production - increasing motivation is not strong. With the end of the Two Sessions, steel mills are expected to resume production, and the demand for coke increases. It is expected that coking coal and coke will run in a volatile manner [19] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal futures fluctuate strongly. Although the IEA plans to release strategic reserves, the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz dominates, and the oil price rises, boosting the US soybean market. The estimated soybean arrival in March is low, and the supply is tight. The import cost rises, and the domestic soybean meal valuation increases. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [20][21] Palm Oil - The palm oil futures fluctuate strongly. The US core inflation slows down as expected, but the post - war impact is not reflected, and the inflation may heat up later. The IEA plans to release reserves, but the oil price still runs strongly due to the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz. If the oil price remains high, Indonesia may restart the B50 policy this year. The palm oil production in Malaysia increases in early March, but the export demand increases more. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of coking coal and coke are rising. The glass and soda ash markets are fluctuating, with glass showing an oscillatory trend and soda ash expected to be oscillatory and weak. The silicon-manganese and silicon-iron markets are oscillatory and strong, supported by cost factors [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures contract oscillated, and the spot market was cold with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The soda ash futures contract opened lower and then rebounded, with active trading in the futures market and stable spot prices [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the short term, the glass production capacity in the Shahe area has decreased, relieving supply pressure, but downstream demand is weak, and inventory removal pressure is high. The supply of soda ash is relatively loose, with new production capacity projects being put into operation, and downstream demand is weak, with high inventory and increasing inventory accumulation pressure. However, due to the impact of the international macro - environment, the cost of energy and chemicals has increased, and the valuation of soda ash is relatively low, so the price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron - **Market Analysis**: The silicon - manganese futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was strong. The silicon - iron futures also oscillated strongly, and the spot market adjusted upwards with active trading [3]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The overall supply and demand of silicon - manganese are relatively loose, but the demand is expected to improve after the resumption of production by downstream steel mills. The price of manganese ore has risen due to South African tariff policy, pushing up the cost of silicon - manganese. The supply pressure of silicon - iron has decreased as enterprises maintain low - load production, and the demand has been boosted by the resumption of production of downstream enterprises. However, the overall production capacity of silicon - iron is relatively loose, which restricts the price increase [3]. - **Strategy**: Both silicon - manganese and silicon - iron are expected to oscillate [4].

Report Title - "Demand Gradually Recovers, Market Expected to Oscillate and Rise - Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 20260302" [1] Report Author - Zhou Guisheng, with qualification certificate F3036194 and investment consulting certificate Z0015986 [1] Market Views Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines is 68.24% (+19.35%), and the daily output of clean coal is 64.9 million tons (+19.02). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 22.73% (-9.55%), and the daily output of clean coal is 16.91 million tons (-7.43). After the Spring Festival, coal mine复产 increased, but the speed is slower than the lunar year. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a high level [3]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills is 223.28 million tons (+2.79), the blast furnace operating rate is 80.22% (+0.09%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills are 12.65 days (-0.41), and in 230 independent coking plants are 12.28 days (-1.08). The downstream mainly consumes existing inventory, and replenishment is postponed [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines is 257.66 million tons (+6.04), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants is 998.86 million tons (-80.23), the inventory of steel mills is 796.24 million tons (-27.89), the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants is 298.93 million tons (-10.08), and the inventory of major ports is 271.97 million tons (+13.56). Currently, the inventory of mines and ports has slightly accumulated, while the inventory of coking plants, coal washing plants, and steel mills has decreased [3]. - Summary: Last week, the coking coal market was weak in both supply and demand. With the gradual recovery of hot metal output, downstream demand will increase, and there are still policy expectations during the Two Sessions. It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the demand recovery [3]. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants is - 7 yuan/ton (-1), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants is 74.36% (+1.47%), the daily output is 64.29 million tons (+0.55), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills is 47.1 million tons (-0.13). The loss of coking plant profits has narrowed, and the resumption of production is optimistic [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills is 223.28 million tons (+2.79), the blast furnace operating rate is 80.22% (+0.09%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills are 12.41 days (-0.05). As the hot metal output gradually recovers, the demand for coke replenishment increases [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants is 107.82 million tons (+7.54), the inventory of major ports is 197.1 million tons (-1.96), and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 675.11 million tons (-1.35). The overall social inventory of coke has increased [4]. - Summary: In terms of supply, the output of coking enterprises has increased after the Spring Festival, and the overall supply has slightly increased. In terms of demand, the steel mills mainly consume existing inventory, and as the hot metal output recovers, the demand for coke replenishment is expected to increase. The current supply - demand situation of coke is weak, but it is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the demand recovery [4] Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the year - on - year cumulative growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the year - on - year cumulative growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - Coking coal spot prices are oscillating. The basis of the main 05 contract warehouse receipts has rebounded slightly. It also tracks the daily output, operating rate, inventory, and the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal of sample mines and coal washing plants, as well as the hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate of steel mills [21][26][31] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - It shows the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule and comparison of coke, and the basis of different contracts. The profit per ton of coke in coking enterprises has slightly recovered. It also tracks the output, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of coke in coking enterprises and steel mills [59][61][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [4] - Cautiously bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [4] 2. Core观点 of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in January 2026 far exceeded expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. Fed officials' statements and market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed. Indonesia plans to significantly cut nickel production, which will impact the global nickel supply structure. The domestic futures market had a mixed performance at night. For different commodities, their market conditions are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policy, and macro - economic data [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News on the Day International News - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January 2026, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages rose 0.4% month - on - month. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been postponed from June to July. Trump called for significant rate cuts [1][5] Domestic News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The base period for CPI and PPI data was changed in 2025, and the impact of the base - period change was small [6] Industry News - China successfully carried out important tests in the manned lunar exploration project, achieving a significant breakthrough [7] 3.2. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 was almost flat, the European STOXX50 rose slightly, the FTSE China A50 futures fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.80%, London gold and silver prices rose significantly, and most LME metals prices increased. ICE 11 - number sugar fell, while ICE 2 - number cotton rose, and CBOT commodities had mixed performances [8] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: The US three major indexes declined slightly, and the previous trading day's index showed small fluctuations. The building materials sector led the rise, and the communication sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but potential disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday need to be watched out for [3][9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds had mixed performances. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell to 1.79%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repo injection of 4035 billion yuan. After the US non - farm data, the Fed rate - cut expectations were postponed, and US Treasury yields rose. China's economic data showed a recovery in consumption demand. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize. Caution is advised before the holiday [10] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Iran and the US held indirect talks, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports may decline in February [11] - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected import volume in the future is known [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. Domestic and some Thai production areas are in the off - season, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The all - steel tire production is stable. Risk control and position reduction are recommended before the Spring Festival [13] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations and macro factors. Positions need to be gradually controlled before the holiday [14] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass inventory increased, and soda ash inventory increased slightly. Glass supply and demand are being repaired, and soda ash supply is slightly shrinking. Positions need to be controlled before the holiday [15] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at high levels. After the US non - farm data, the rate - cut expectations cooled down, and precious metals prices dropped. In the long term, factors supporting precious metals remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [2][16][17] - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Copper prices may enter an adjustment stage in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be monitored [3][18] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices oscillated at night. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need attention [19] - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum price is at a high level. The aluminum plant operating rate is rising, but the aluminum - water ratio is decreasing, and the downstream enterprise operating rate is falling. Aluminum ingot inventory is accumulating. Although the short - term industry situation is weak, there is support in the long term [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production decreased. Demand also declined. Social inventory decreased. The market sentiment weakened, and the futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities after volatility reduction and be cautious [21] Black - Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. Mine production decreased before the Spring Festival, and Mongolian coal imports decreased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke has limited growth, and the downstream replenishment is almost completed. After the holiday, factors such as iron - water output and mine operations need to be focused on [22] - **Steel**: As the Spring Festival approaches, steel production decreased slightly, and supply is expected to increase later. Steel inventories increased, and demand from the construction industry weakened. The domestic policy environment is still good, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23] - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, mainly from Brazil. Port inventory increased, and domestic iron - concentrate production decreased. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly. Steel mills' demand for iron ore will be based on demand. The iron ore price will oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices rose. Brazil's soybean harvest rate increased, and the USDA raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production. Although the data is bearish, the market has digested it. Domestic bean meal prices followed the foreign market, but future supply pressure may still exist [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil prices fell, while rapeseed oil prices rose slightly. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased, exports increased, and production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the northern hemisphere is in a production - increasing cycle. The domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and imports are high. The price is expected to oscillate [28] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate is decreasing, and textile mills' replenishment is coming to an end. There is still some demand support, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the direct - subsidy policy [29] - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices continued to be weak. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and the spot price is under pressure, which will continue to affect the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the daily slaughter volume of group enterprises and downstream slaughter volume on prices [30] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 1.42%. The spot freight rate is expected to be stable, and the market is expected to oscillate before the holiday. After the holiday, the verification of photovoltaic exports and the implementation of price - increase letters need attention [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Cautious bearish: Crude oil, methanol, apple, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, container shipping to Europe [5] - Cautiously bullish: Stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, corn [5] Core View of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 due to factors such as the technology cycle, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [13] - Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank gold purchases [3][4] - The oil market's geopolitical risk premium has decreased, but the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027 [2][16] - The copper market may experience a phased correction due to supply disruptions and weakening downstream demand [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day - **International News:** US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair and has narrowed the candidates to four, with the final decision possibly announced next week. He also responded to the "kill line" phenomenon and blamed the Biden administration [7] - **Domestic News:** In 2026, China's macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand, including optimizing policies, formulating plans, and promoting high-tech industries [8] - **Industry News:** During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve water resource management and conservation, aiming for an irrigation water utilization coefficient of over 0.6 and a water-saving industry scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined, while the US dollar index also fell [11] - London gold and silver prices rose, while most base metals and agricultural products declined [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial:** The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, while the bond market has stabilized due to policy support and a cooling equity market [13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals:** Crude oil prices may be under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks and increased supply expectations. Methanol prices are expected to rise in the short term, while rubber prices may be volatile [16][17][18] - **Metals:** Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, while copper and zinc prices may experience a phased correction. Aluminum prices may be supported by low inventory in the long term [22][23][24][26] - **Black Metals:** Coking coal and steel prices may be strong in the short term, while iron ore prices are expected to remain stable [28][29][30] - **Agricultural Products:** Protein meal prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and a bumper harvest in South America. Vegetable oil prices may be supported by strong exports and policy expectations [31][32] - **Shipping Index:** Container shipping rates to Europe are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to increased supply and weak demand [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in public fund sales regulations in China, the impact of U.S. military actions in Venezuela on oil prices, and the overall economic indicators reflecting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][3]. Group 1: Public Fund Sales Regulations - The new regulations for public fund sales have officially been implemented, easing the redemption fees for bond funds. Individual investors holding bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors for more than 30 days will be exempt from redemption fees, alleviating concerns about liquidity and trading characteristics of bond funds [1][3]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations during the holiday period. The U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, are expected to lead to increased instability in the region, which may affect oil exports that were already under U.S. sanctions. Short-term oil prices are likely to trend upwards due to these developments, while medium-term impacts may arise from the anticipated reduction in Venezuelan oil production [2][12]. - The long-term outlook will depend on the control exerted by U.S. proxies in Venezuela, with the exit of Venezuelan production potentially allowing OPEC to increase output, leading to a subsequent decline in oil prices after an initial rise [2][12]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for February rose to 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone and an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1][3]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected, reinforcing economic resilience and reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in January, which in turn pushed long-term yields higher [3][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dual焦 (coke and coking coal) prices are expected to steadily rise by 2026 due to policy support and supply constraints, while the steel market is transitioning to a dynamic balance, with price stability anticipated [1] - The steel industry's main contradiction this year is that the decline in demand is greater than the decline in production, leading to a continuous decrease in crude steel apparent consumption for the fifth consecutive year [3] - The real estate sector is undergoing deep adjustments, with infrastructure investment growth turning negative, and manufacturing investment growth dropping below 3%, which is expected to limit demand growth in the steel market [3] Group 2 - The dual焦 market is currently in a "tight balance" state, with low inventory strategies maintained by both coke producers and steel mills, while coal prices have been fluctuating [4][5] - The demand structure for coal is undergoing significant changes, with a slight increase in thermal coal consumption, but overall coal prices are expected to experience a similar trend of decline followed by recovery [5] - The steel industry is expected to maintain demand resilience under policy support, but environmental restrictions will limit significant growth in焦炭 (coke) demand, leading to ongoing profit competition among焦钢 (coke and steel) enterprises [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the retail industry in fostering a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic circulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for a shift towards quality and service-driven growth [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts amid internal disagreements, with market pricing indicating a high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with plans for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities such as government bonds, oils, and copper, noting that the 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.83% [2][10] - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience in foreign trade [2][10] - In the oil market, palm oil prices have shown slight increases, while soybean oil prices are under pressure due to improved supply expectations [3][27] Group 3 - The article discusses the copper market, indicating a continued tight supply of concentrates and a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [18] - The article also mentions the performance of various commodities, including a decline in aluminum prices due to uncertainties surrounding future Fed rate cuts and a slight decrease in zinc prices amid stable supply [20][19] Group 4 - The article outlines the recent developments in the agricultural sector, particularly in soybean planting in Brazil, which has reached 86% completion, and the impact of this on global supply dynamics [26] - It also notes that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain strong due to stable demand and limited supply, despite some pressure from macroeconomic factors [29]