首席点评： 公募基金销售新规正式落地 美军突袭加拉加斯，抓捕马杜罗夫妇并押往美国，美方宣布将暂时 "管理"委内瑞拉并深度介入石油产业。美国当周初请失 业金低于预期，强化经济韧性，削弱1月降息概率，推升长端收益率，特朗普明确将于1月择时公布鲍威尔继任人选，称已 有心仪人选且未改变。国内2月官方制造业PMI为50.1%，升至扩张区间，经济景气水平总体回升。公募基金销售新规正式 落地，放宽了债基赎回费，个人持有债基超过7日、机构持有债基超过30日可免收赎回费，缓解市场对债基流动性、交易属 性弱化的担忧。 重点品种：原油、国债 原油 ： 节日期间油价小幅震荡回落。但收盘期间，美国入侵委内瑞拉对其发动空袭，同时宣称已经抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜 罗，并将其带离委内瑞拉。短期委内瑞拉将陷入内乱，袭击发生前其石油出口已经受到美国封锁压制，袭击发生后在美国 代理人上台前预计将持续受到更大影响。短期油价受此影响偏多。中期影响在于此前委内瑞拉石油生产主要依赖中国和俄 罗斯，美国发动军事打击后预计开始清场，产量将在一定时间内受到影响。长期而言，关注美国代理人在委内瑞拉的掌控 力度。不过委内瑞拉产量的退出给了 OPEC进一步增产的空间，预 ...

长安期货高级分析师马舍瑞夫与煤炭研究员张晨在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第九期 中，对2026年钢铁市场进行了展望。他们认为，在"反内卷"政策持续发力与供给约束加强的背景下，产 业链各环节供需正在向动态平衡过渡，2026年主要品种的价格中枢有望进一步抬升。 钢材价格下行空间有限 马舍瑞夫表示，今年钢铁产业的核心矛盾在于需求下降幅度大于产量下降幅度。今年全年房地产行业持 续深度调整，狭义基建投资同比增速由正转负，制造业投资增速亦降至3%以下，导致全年粗钢表观消 费量连续第五年下降。值得关注的是，2025年钢厂利润在需求承压背景下却显著回暖，主要原因是原料 端让利。 展望2026年，钢铁市场需求结构将继续深度调整。"十五五"规划建议提出要推动房地产高质量发展。马 舍瑞夫预计，房地产相关政策会从"消化存量"及建设"好房子"的角度出发，预计带来的需求增量有限。 制造业与出口将为需求带来支撑。马舍瑞夫认为，"十五五"规划建议强调加快建设制造强国、保持制造 业合理比重，传统产业升级与新兴制造业发展将构成钢材需求的"三大锚点"。同时，尽管面临贸易保护 主义挑战，但钢材出口有望保持增长，为需求提供支撑。综合来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the retail industry in fostering a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic circulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for a shift towards quality and service-driven growth [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts amid internal disagreements, with market pricing indicating a high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with plans for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities such as government bonds, oils, and copper, noting that the 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.83% [2][10] - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience in foreign trade [2][10] - In the oil market, palm oil prices have shown slight increases, while soybean oil prices are under pressure due to improved supply expectations [3][27] Group 3 - The article discusses the copper market, indicating a continued tight supply of concentrates and a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [18] - The article also mentions the performance of various commodities, including a decline in aluminum prices due to uncertainties surrounding future Fed rate cuts and a slight decrease in zinc prices amid stable supply [20][19] Group 4 - The article outlines the recent developments in the agricultural sector, particularly in soybean planting in Brazil, which has reached 86% completion, and the impact of this on global supply dynamics [26] - It also notes that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain strong due to stable demand and limited supply, despite some pressure from macroeconomic factors [29]

双焦：首轮提降落地，盘面先扬后抑 期货研究报告 2025年12月08日 周报 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格弱稳运行。1日河北等地主流钢厂对焦炭价格招标 下调，降幅为50-55元/吨，1日起执行，焦炭首轮提降落地。目前焦化厂利润回升，基本处于盈利状态，各 焦企保持正常开工节奏，低库存运行；原料端焦煤价格近期持续下跌，竞拍流拍较多，焦炭失去成本支撑。 展望：整体上，现货悲观情绪不改，盘面则受资金博弈影响，小幅反弹后急速回落。预计12月中下旬冬 储补库开启后将对基本面和情绪形成改善，盘面当前估值水平过低，情绪扭转后估值将逐渐修复。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2103.97 | 2106.1 | -2.13 | -0.10% | 周度 | ...

Core Insights - The futures market for coking coal and coke has experienced a short-term rally, with coking coal and coke main contracts showing reduced declines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for coking coal has narrowed its decline to 1.19%, currently priced at 1,084 yuan per ton [1] - The main contract for coke has narrowed its decline to 1.92%, currently priced at 1,609.5 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [2] - Coking Coal: Sideways [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [6] 2. Core Views - Steel market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market continues to rebound. However, the improvement of the weak industrial reality is limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron ore prices are running strongly, but the overall valuation is high, and there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future, which may put pressure on prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded significantly due to supply disturbances. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the demand for coke remains resilient [3][4]. - The support of rigid demand for thermal coal has weakened, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to decline [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3133 yuan/ton and 3345 yuan/ton respectively. Spot transactions are average, with weak rigid demand and more low - price purchases in the futures - spot market. The basis has shrunk. The inventory of building materials is being depleted, iron - water production is slightly decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious. Short - term macro sentiment has warmed up, and raw material support is strong [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to rise yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties are strong. Traders' quotes mostly follow the market, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative spot trading volume at major ports is 95.1 tons, up 6.61% from the previous day; the cumulative forward - looking spot trading volume is 123.0 tons (11 transactions), down 26.26% from the previous day. The current overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. Although steel mill profits continue to decline, production cuts are limited, iron - water production remains high, and the decline in iron ore demand is slow. There is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. Due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and concentrated working - face changes in the production areas, production has been continuously restricted. An accident in an individual coal mine has intensified market concerns about coal supply in the fourth quarter. The price of imported Mongolian coal fluctuates slightly, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased. The market sentiment of coking coal is positive, and the overall inventory is at a medium - low level, with resilient demand [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening. Rigid demand from chemical plants and large terminal customers has weakened. After major railway bureaus cancelled railway shipping discounts, the shipping cost of terminals has increased, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping has declined. At ports, the daily consumption of coastal terminals has decreased, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and buyers are more hesitant. The import coal market is weakly stable, with imported goods mostly in the hands of traders, and the winning bid prices of power plants are falling [6]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a new development pattern in China, highlighting the growth of the futures market and the performance of key commodities such as stock indices, precious metals, and copper [1][2][3]. Futures Market Overview - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market reached approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - Client equity in futures companies totaled about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1]. Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a slight recovery led by the communication sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [2]. - The market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, and as of October 17, the financing balance decreased by 27.3 billion yuan to 2.412835 trillion yuan [2]. - The article suggests that the stock indices are entering a phase of directional choice, with domestic liquidity expected to remain loose and external funds likely to flow into the domestic market due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been strong, although recent upward momentum has slowed [3]. - The article notes that central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising global tensions and distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Silver's supply-demand imbalance is highlighted, with potential for increased volatility following rapid price increases [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices rose in the night session, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output [3][20]. - The article mentions that investment in the power grid continues to grow, while real estate remains weak, impacting overall demand for copper [20]. - The potential for a global copper supply gap due to mining issues in Indonesia is expected to support copper prices in the long term [20]. Key Commodities Performance - The article provides insights into various commodities, including palm oil, corn, and lithium carbonate, indicating mixed performance and market dynamics influenced by external factors such as trade tensions and supply chain issues [5][22][28]. International and Domestic News - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance the production of rare earths and critical minerals, with over $3 billion planned for investment in key mineral projects [6]. - China's LPR remained unchanged for five consecutive months, reflecting stable policy rates and potential for further monetary easing in response to economic conditions [7]. Industry Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing of new futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, expanding the range of tradable products [8]. Market Trends - The article notes that the market is currently cautious, with a focus on upcoming trade talks and the potential impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global markets [3][19]. - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and geopolitical developments [3][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the coking coal futures price fluctuated significantly, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, while the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market generally continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal with the same trend. After the seventh round of price increase was implemented, the eighth round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first round of price reduction after the end of military parade production restrictions. The spot quotation was stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. In the short - term, the market sentiment drive is greater than the fundamental support. Policy news may still cause disturbances. The price of coking coal is expected to remain volatile [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal futures price fluctuated greatly, with the futures market showing a pattern of first decline and then rise, and the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The coke market continued the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures market followed the coking coal. After the seventh - round price increase was implemented, the eighth - round was blocked, and steel mills initiated the first - round price reduction, with the spot quotation being stable with a slight weakness [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 22, at the press conference, the central bank governor said that China's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose; the head of the financial regulatory agency said that the "white - list" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan, supporting nearly 20 million housing constructions; the CSRC chairman said that as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan"; the head of the SAFE said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits at the end of July [5]. - Five ministries jointly issued the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years, and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexican measures on September 25, which involve products such as automobiles and parts, textiles, and steel [6]. - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [6]. - On September 27, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that a new round of automobile industry stable - growth plan would be implemented, and preferential tax policies for new - energy vehicles would be optimized [6]. - In mid - September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.41 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period, a 42.8% increase from the beginning of the year, and a 15.9% increase from the same period last year [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the price of coking coal rose, increasing the coking enterprises' production costs and narrowing profit margins. With the approaching of holidays, downstream replenishment demand was released [2]. - On the demand side, the overall steel mill operation remained at a high level. The rigid demand for coke increased with the approaching of holidays, but the terminal consumption was average, and steel products were accumulating inventory, so the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is in a weak state. The price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and new macro - level changes [29]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for coking profit, stay on the sidelines [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The downstream replenishment demand is obvious, and the price of coking coal has risen [2][5]. - The supply of coal mines has increased slightly this week, but the market is worried about coal mine production cuts due to over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia. The resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream has increased significantly [2]. - Before the festival, inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited. It is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. On Monday, mainstream steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places lowered the tender price of coke. The wet - quenched coke was lowered by 50 yuan/ton, and the dry - quenched coke was lowered by 55 yuan/ton, which was the second round of price cuts. On Thursday, an individual coke enterprise in Inner Mongolia sent a letter to increase the price by 50/55 yuan/ton, but mainstream steel mills have not responded [2][5]. - After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The coking plants maintain the previous production rhythm, and the downstream replenishment demand is obvious. The price of coking coal has risen, with more price increases and fewer price decreases in auctions [2][5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - China and the United States have reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [7]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, with a growth rate decline of 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a growth rate decline of 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.9 percentage points [7]. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.26 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.12452 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [7]. - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points, and it is expected to cut interest rates twice more this year [7]. - In August, China's automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [8]. - In August, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [8]. - This week, the approved production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 217,000 tons [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: This week, the coal mine production increased slightly, but the over - production inspection document in Inner Mongolia has once again triggered market concerns about coal mine production cuts, and the resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term [2]. - Demand: On the 15th, the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but the rapid rise in coal prices drove an individual coke enterprise in the Ordos market to increase the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on the 18th. Currently, mainstream coke enterprises have not raised prices, and steel mills have not responded. This week, the steel mill's hot - metal output continued to rise slightly, and the coke enterprises maintained high - level production. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong that previously stopped or reduced production have resumed normal production, but some fat - coal mines in Inner Mongolia have stopped production due to over - production. The total output has increased slightly. Overall, the pre - festival inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited, and it is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].