双焦期货周度报告 2025年09月29日 供应有所下滑 焦企开启提涨 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周焦煤期价大幅波动，盘面表现先抑后扬，现 货价格则稳中偏弱。焦炭市场整体延续供需双弱格局，期货盘面 跟随焦煤同样呈现先抑后扬走势。现货方面，第七轮提涨落地 后，第八轮提涨受阻，钢厂在阅兵限产结束后迅速开启首轮提 降，现货报价稳中偏弱。 基本面分析：供应，原料端炼焦煤价格上涨，焦企入炉煤成 本提升，利润空间收窄，焦企生产积极性维持，随着双节临近， 下游补库需求释放。需求，钢厂整体开工维持高位，假期临近焦 炭的刚性需求有所提升，终端消费一般，钢材有累库现象，整体 补库预计有限。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周焦煤期价大幅波动，盘面表现先抑后扬，现货价格则稳中偏弱。焦炭市场整 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The downstream replenishment demand is obvious, and the price of coking coal has risen [2][5]. - The supply of coal mines has increased slightly this week, but the market is worried about coal mine production cuts due to over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia. The resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream has increased significantly [2]. - Before the festival, inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited. It is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. On Monday, mainstream steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places lowered the tender price of coke. The wet - quenched coke was lowered by 50 yuan/ton, and the dry - quenched coke was lowered by 55 yuan/ton, which was the second round of price cuts. On Thursday, an individual coke enterprise in Inner Mongolia sent a letter to increase the price by 50/55 yuan/ton, but mainstream steel mills have not responded [2][5]. - After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The coking plants maintain the previous production rhythm, and the downstream replenishment demand is obvious. The price of coking coal has risen, with more price increases and fewer price decreases in auctions [2][5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - China and the United States have reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [7]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, with a growth rate decline of 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a growth rate decline of 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.9 percentage points [7]. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.26 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.12452 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [7]. - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points, and it is expected to cut interest rates twice more this year [7]. - In August, China's automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [8]. - In August, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [8]. - This week, the approved production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 217,000 tons [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: This week, the coal mine production increased slightly, but the over - production inspection document in Inner Mongolia has once again triggered market concerns about coal mine production cuts, and the resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term [2]. - Demand: On the 15th, the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but the rapid rise in coal prices drove an individual coke enterprise in the Ordos market to increase the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on the 18th. Currently, mainstream coke enterprises have not raised prices, and steel mills have not responded. This week, the steel mill's hot - metal output continued to rise slightly, and the coke enterprises maintained high - level production. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong that previously stopped or reduced production have resumed normal production, but some fat - coal mines in Inner Mongolia have stopped production due to over - production. The total output has increased slightly. Overall, the pre - festival inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited, and it is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short - term, with potential for further increase if downstream demand exceeds expectations in October. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuation. [4] - The coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the strategy is to buy on dips later. The supply of coking coal has policy support, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11][12] - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September. [13][14] - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by high supply pressure. Ferrosilicon may rebound slightly due to market sentiment, while silicomanganese will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. [15][16] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; from January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 671.806 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The spot prices of steel in different regions decreased by 10 yuan. [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile and slightly stronger at night. This week, the hot - metal output increased slightly, and the national building - material output decreased. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. Downstream demand improved with the temperature drop. Market news and low valuation led to the price increase. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve, and there is support for the black - metal sector. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel maintains a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 17th, the coking - coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose. This week, the national raw - coal daily output increased, with Shanxi's output rising. There were news of coal - mine production cuts and capacity checks. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts were provided. [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The coking - coal spot market sentiment was good recently. The supply of coking coal is restricted by policies, but imported coal provides some supplement. The upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, and buy on dips later. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released. The real - estate market showed signs of stabilization. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the main contract were provided. [13] - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore oscillated narrowly at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased, mainly from Brazilian mines. Terminal steel demand weakened in China but remained high overseas. The iron - ore price may face pressure at high levels. [13][14] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: The spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port on the 17th were provided. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut 50 basis points more in 2025. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weaker on the 17th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market sentiment was boosted by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The spot price of silicomanganese was slightly weaker, with increased production and high iron - water output, but the demand was dragged down by the decline in electric - furnace operating rates. The cost of manganese ore supported the price. [15][16] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Follow the market and be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the target should not be too high due to high supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations at high prices. [18]

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing slight fluctuations with a strong performance in the technology sector, as evidenced by the ChiNext 50 index reaching a new high for the year, increasing by 1.32% [7] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with 3,629 stocks rising and 1,689 falling, led by growth sectors such as automotive parts, robotics, and computing power, while insurance and basic metals are under pressure [7] - The market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with significant potential in sectors like new energy and technology growth, supported by the ongoing internationalization of the RMB and gradual improvement in corporate earnings [7] Bond Market - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, with government bond futures experiencing a "V-shaped" rebound after a significant drop at the open, supported by a stable liquidity environment and economic fundamentals [13] - The 10-year government bond futures closed at 108.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.15% increase, while the 30-year futures remained stable at 115.48 yuan [13] - The central bank's liquidity measures, including a 287 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicate a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system, which is expected to attract long-term funds into the bond market [13] Commodity Market - The commodity market is showing strong performance in certain sectors, particularly in coking coal and coke, which saw increases of 5.84% and 4.24% respectively, while polysilicon futures experienced a narrowing gain of 0.51% [12][13] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue influencing market dynamics, with coking coal leading the rise due to supply tightness and safety inspections in coal mines [12][13] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to impact the long-term trajectory of metal prices, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut influencing market sentiment [12] Trading Hotspots - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as precious metals, artificial intelligence, and consumer goods, driven by factors like central bank policies and market recovery [15][17] - The focus on strong industrial trends, particularly in AI and solid-state batteries, is recommended for investment, alongside sectors benefiting from a weaker US dollar [15] - The report suggests that the bond market may see a "stock-bond seesaw" effect end, leading to a potential "dual bull" market scenario in the future [15]

Group 1 - Coal stocks saw significant gains in the afternoon, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) up 5.81% at HKD 9.83, China Qinfeng (00866) up 3.79% at HKD 3.01, China Shenhua (601088) up 2.42% at HKD 38.02, and China Coal Energy (601898) up 1.06% at HKD 9.57 [1] - On September 15, the domestic coking coal futures market experienced a strong upward trend, with both coking coal and coke futures rising over 5% [1] - A coal mine in Luliang, Shanxi Province, was reported to have suspended operations on September 14, with an uncertain timeline for resumption and a certified production capacity of 1.2 million tons [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities (601878) noted that the seasonal expectations in September are suppressing coal prices, with spot prices gradually approaching long-term contracts, indicating a potential bottoming out and rebound in coal prices [1] - As coal prices align more closely with long-term contracts (with low calorific value discounts), downstream purchasing enthusiasm is expected to increase [1] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, supply and demand are anticipated to gradually balance, leading to a steady rise in coal prices, maintaining a "positive" outlook for the industry [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sixth round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with marginal profit improvement for coke enterprises. The average daily pig iron output this week was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline. - Domestic supply is constantly disturbed, coal mine inventories are still at a low level, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It is expected that the short - term futures market will still have support [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market first rose and then fell this week. On the 14th, steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other places raised the tender price for coke procurement, which was the sixth round of price increases. The increases were 50 yuan/ton for tamped wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamped dry - quenched coke, 70 yuan/ton for top - charged wet - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - From August 12th, China and the US continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. - On August 15th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Alaska, discussing issues such as the Ukraine issue and Russia - US relations, but no agreement was reached. - Nine departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities, with an annual interest subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point for a maximum of 1 year. - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. In July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 2.84238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%, and the new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan (the first negative growth since July 2005). - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily - output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily - output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6][7][8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi returned to the production - increasing rhythm this week, but due to underground conditions and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, the overall production increase in Shanxi was slow. Some coal mines in Shaanxi stopped production due to moving faces, resulting in a significant decline in output. - Demand side: The sixth round of price increases for coke was fully implemented this week. The average daily pig iron output was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines resumed production this week, but some reduced production due to various factors. Overall supply recovery was slow. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 1,024 vehicles due to system adjustments, and the impact has now been basically eliminated. - Demand side: Coke production increased slightly, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises slowed down after restocking. Coal mine inventories in some areas began to accumulate, but overall inventories decreased slightly due to pre - sales. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [31].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the continued decline in coking coal and coke futures, with coking coal main contract dropping over 5% to 1225 yuan/ton and coke main contract falling 4% to 1712 yuan/ton [1]

Core Insights - The futures market for coking coal and coke has experienced a significant increase, with coking coal futures rising by 6.19% to 1303.5 CNY per ton and coke futures increasing by 3.69% to 1798 CNY per ton [1] Group 1 - Coking coal futures have shown a notable increase, indicating strong demand or supply constraints in the market [1] - Coke futures have also risen, reflecting similar market dynamics affecting the coking coal sector [1]