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小鹏汽车-W(09868):强势产品周期开启战略转型,“物理AI”公司
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-06 08:40
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 20.38 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with net loss significantly narrowing to 0.38 billion yuan. Total deliveries reached 116,007 units, up 149.3%, marking a historical high. The comprehensive gross margin exceeded 20% for the first time, reaching 20.1%, indicating a notable improvement in profitability [1][4] - The company has launched a "dual power" strategy combining pure electric and range-extended vehicles to address user range anxiety. The first range-extended model, X9 EREV, was launched in November 2025, featuring a 63.3 kWh battery and a conversion efficiency exceeding 3.6 kWh/L, achieving a pure electric range of 452 km. Additional range-extended versions of key models are expected in Q1 2026, alongside four new models in 2026, including two SUVs based on the MONA platform [2] - The company is transitioning from "smart cars" to a "physical AI" company, showcasing its commitment and specific path at the 2025 Technology Day. The core technology, VLA 2.0, enhances reasoning efficiency by 12 times and improves average takeover mileage in complex scenarios by 13 times. The model is set to be fully deployed in Ultra models by Q1 2026 and is expected to extend to robotics and other embodied intelligence fields [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 75.8 billion yuan, 132.1 billion yuan, and 166.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85.4%, 74.3%, and 25.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -1.55 billion yuan, 2.00 billion yuan, and 6.13 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]