Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent upward trends in palm oil and canola oil prices, driven by various market factors including production and export data, as well as government policies affecting supply and demand dynamics [4][5][11]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - The significant rise in palm oil prices was initiated by the MPOB monthly report, which showed production and export data that were less negative than expected, reversing the market sentiment after a two-week high adjustment [5][8]. - The MPOB report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July was 1.81 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09%, while exports reached 1.31 million tons, up 3.82% [5][6]. - Concerns over future palm oil production in Indonesia have been heightened due to the government's seizure of illegal oil palm plantations, which could further tighten supply and support price increases [10][14]. Group 2: Canola Oil Market Influences - Canola oil prices also experienced a significant increase due to rumors of high anti-dumping deposit rates on Canadian canola seeds, which were later confirmed by the Ministry of Commerce [11][12]. - The Ministry announced a temporary anti-dumping measure, imposing a 75.8% deposit on imports of Canadian canola seeds starting from August 14, 2025, which is expected to suppress future imports and tighten domestic supply [11][12]. - Despite some rumors of Australian canola seed purchases, the supply from Australia is unlikely to fully compensate for the loss of Canadian imports, leading to a clear upward trend in canola oil prices [12][14]. Group 3: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of positive indicators for Malaysian palm oil production and export, alongside tightening supply from Indonesia and the impact of anti-dumping measures on canola oil, suggests a bullish outlook for the oilseed market [14]. - Current support levels for various oils are identified, with soybean oil at 8200, palm oil at 9000, and canola oil at 9800, while resistance levels are projected at 9000, 10000, and 10000-10300 respectively [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds, highlighting the significant 75.8% deposit requirement and its potential impact on the domestic canola industry and market dynamics [4][5][18]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported canola seeds from Canada, with a preliminary ruling set to be released by August 12, 2025 [4]. - The deposit requirement of 75.8% for Canadian companies is a temporary measure aimed at mitigating the damage caused by dumping until a final ruling is made [5][18]. - The investigation is expected to last up to 18 months, with the final decision anticipated within the next 7 months [18]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Canola Industry - The anti-dumping measures aim to restore the net profit and competitiveness of the domestic canola industry, as current prices for domestic canola have decreased from 6100 CNY/ton to 5700 CNY/ton [8]. - The domestic canola futures market is expected to see increased activity, with a recommendation to buy low on domestic canola futures contracts [8]. - The high deposit rate may lead to a reduction in import willingness from domestic industries, affecting overall supply and pricing dynamics [5][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - The investigation has already led to a tightening of canola imports, with some crushing enterprises halting canola meal sales [10]. - The supply of canola meal is particularly concerning, as imported canola meal faces a 100% tariff, limiting its entry into the domestic market [10]. - The article suggests that alternative sources for canola oil and meal may include imports from Dubai and Russia, but the supply of canola meal remains a challenge [14][19]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2019 blackleg disease incident, which also affected Canadian canola exports to China, indicating that trade normalization may depend on the resolution of tariff disputes [12]. - Future supply paths for canola meal may include the restoration of Australian canola imports and adjustments to the delivery standards for Indian and Russian canola meal [16]. - The overall market for canola oil is expected to remain stable, with potential price increases as demand continues to grow [19].