文 | 石丽红 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险， 也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻 辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC油脂油料研究 CFC商品策略研究 . 继豆油之后，本周棕榈油和菜油陆续迎来向上突破。MPOB月报利空不及预期，叠加马棕8月阶段性产 量及出口数据利多，以及印尼B50带动的多头情绪推波助澜，周一棕榈油迎来突破性大涨。行业呼吁 推迟B50实施至少两年的传言一度引发棕榈油回调，但很快被印尼政府大量没收油棕种植园引发的产 量担忧盖过，棕榈油期价再度创出新高。周二菜油的突破性上涨受到加菜籽将被征收高额反倾销保证 金传言的驱动，随后很快被商务部公告所证实。尽管丰厚利润下的菜油积极买船及澳菜籽成交传言打 压后半周菜油高位回落，菜油并未回落至突破前水平。从底层逻辑来看，澳菜籽很难弥补加菜籽不能 进口带来的供应缺口，菜油价格重心抬升倾向明显。 一、多重利多因素共振， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds, highlighting the significant 75.8% deposit requirement and its potential impact on the domestic canola industry and market dynamics [4][5][18]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported canola seeds from Canada, with a preliminary ruling set to be released by August 12, 2025 [4]. - The deposit requirement of 75.8% for Canadian companies is a temporary measure aimed at mitigating the damage caused by dumping until a final ruling is made [5][18]. - The investigation is expected to last up to 18 months, with the final decision anticipated within the next 7 months [18]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Canola Industry - The anti-dumping measures aim to restore the net profit and competitiveness of the domestic canola industry, as current prices for domestic canola have decreased from 6100 CNY/ton to 5700 CNY/ton [8]. - The domestic canola futures market is expected to see increased activity, with a recommendation to buy low on domestic canola futures contracts [8]. - The high deposit rate may lead to a reduction in import willingness from domestic industries, affecting overall supply and pricing dynamics [5][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - The investigation has already led to a tightening of canola imports, with some crushing enterprises halting canola meal sales [10]. - The supply of canola meal is particularly concerning, as imported canola meal faces a 100% tariff, limiting its entry into the domestic market [10]. - The article suggests that alternative sources for canola oil and meal may include imports from Dubai and Russia, but the supply of canola meal remains a challenge [14][19]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2019 blackleg disease incident, which also affected Canadian canola exports to China, indicating that trade normalization may depend on the resolution of tariff disputes [12]. - Future supply paths for canola meal may include the restoration of Australian canola imports and adjustments to the delivery standards for Indian and Russian canola meal [16]. - The overall market for canola oil is expected to remain stable, with potential price increases as demand continues to grow [19].