Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The risk appetite in the market has continued to rise this week. Despite the poor performance of domestic economic and financial data, the stock market sentiment remains high. In the fundamentals, the downstream orders in copper have shown support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper has continued to appear. In August, with full - scale supply, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly from January to June due to aluminum ingot imports. August is expected to be a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. Aluminum product exports have improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand has declined, and overseas demand has dropped significantly. An inventory increase is expected in August. In the short - term off - season, attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has further increased. In August, the increase in smelting output has been further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas, there may be a shortage of supply in some periods. Domestically, social inventory has fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. - For nickel, pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about anti - involution policy games. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in the US, opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are generally weak, and in the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. - Lead prices have fluctuated this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The production of recycled lead remains at a low level, and the TC quotation is in a mess. On the demand side, the inventory of battery products is high, and the peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. - Tin prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore is at a low level, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas, the resumption of production in Wa State is restricted in the short - term, and African tin ore has unstable short - term output. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the growth rate of photovoltaic demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while overseas consumption is strong, and LME inventory is at a low level. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. - For industrial silicon, the resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures market has fluctuated greatly this week due to the expected start - up of salt lakes and mica mines. In the spot market, the peak season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium remained unchanged at 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference increased by 401, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 401. The spot import profit decreased by 432.51 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Market risk appetite remains high. Downstream orders have support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper is obvious. The waste copper market is disturbed, and if the production of recycled copper rods continues to decline, it may stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 3. The SHFE social inventory increased by 54.10, and the exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement later. Aluminum product exports have improved, while photovoltaic and overseas demand have declined. An inventory increase is expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 110, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE futures import profit decreased by 90.69 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices have fluctuated widely. Domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has increased. In August, smelting output has increased. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has resilience, and overseas, there may be a short - term supply shortage. Social inventory has increased, and LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and long - term short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged at 57.0, and the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700. The spot import profit decreased, and the futures import profit decreased by 1465.31 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains high, demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is about policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 25 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the social inventory remained at 6. The LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000, and the futures import profit decreased by 25.37 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices have fluctuated. Supply is tight, and the production of recycled lead is low. Demand is weak, and the battery market is in a non - prosperous peak season. Although there is a peak - season expectation from July to August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain high. Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot import profit decreased, and the LME inventory increased. The trading volume increased by 599 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices have fluctuated widely. Supply is restricted by low processing fees and production cuts at home and abroad. Demand has an expectation of a peak season for electronic consumption but a decline in photovoltaic growth. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas consumption is strong. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 22, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased to - 345, and the 553 East China basis decreased to 505. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 51,166 to 51,049 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 82,500, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 80,200. The main - contract basis decreased by 1820, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 640 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market has fluctuated greatly due to supply - side disturbances. In the spot market, the peak - season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - The current weak demand for copper is due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment power, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1][2] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Suggest short - term observation, holding internal - external positive arbitrage, and paying attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - Nickel supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Pay attention to the policy trend due to the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - aspect [7] - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] - The production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] - The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17] Summary by Metal Copper - From July 24th to 30th, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, and the inventory increased by 9,225 tons. The current demand is weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view is maintained [1] Aluminum - From July 24th to 30th, the price of aluminum ingots fluctuated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly in July and is expected to continue to increase in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2] Zinc - From July 24th to 30th, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to observe in the short term, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] Nickel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of nickel decreased, and the inventory was stable. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of stainless steel was relatively stable. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend [7] Lead - From July 24th to 30th, lead prices declined slightly. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] Tin - From July 24th to 30th, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] Industrial Silicon - From July 24th to 30th, the production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] Lithium Carbonate - From July 24th to 30th, the price of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links increased. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17]