Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and potential arbitrage opportunities in the low - inventory situation [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases, demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended, while a short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. - For nickel, supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation. Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. - Lead prices fluctuate. Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. - Tin prices fluctuate widely. Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth. A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - The production of industrial silicon resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand situation may remain tight, while in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuate on the futures market due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances. The price has large upward and downward elasticities [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 50, the warehouse receipt decreased by 55, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1850 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The market risk preference continues to rise. The downstream orders are supported at around 7.8. The copper rod production rate shows resilience at the end of the off - season, and the substitution effect between refined and scrap copper is obvious. The scrap copper market is disturbed by policies, and there may be a small inventory accumulation in August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the import alumina price decreased by 50. The inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The export of aluminum products improves, but photovoltaic demand and overseas demand decline. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 2025 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases as the smelting increment is further realized in August and the zinc ore import in July reaches a three - year high. Demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. A short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1450, and the inventory of LME increased by 456 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils and other products remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xifu decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot premium increased by 10, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 4975 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot import profit decreased by 1094.76, and the inventory of LME decreased by 30 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth [11]. - **Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 53 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. The supply - demand situation may remain tight in the short - term, while prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long - term [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the warehouse receipt increased by 1480 [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The futures market fluctuates due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances [16].

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - Market risk preference remained high this week despite weak domestic economic and financial data in July [1] Group 2: Copper - Downstream orders showed support around 7.8 this week, and the scrap-to-refined substitution effect continued to appear [1] - In August, under the full supply pattern, a small inventory build-up is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight balance pattern after the off-season [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to June, with aluminum ingot imports contributing to the growth [2] - August demand is expected to be a seasonal off-season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages [2] - Aluminum exports improved month-on-month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly [2] - In August, a small inventory build-up is expected [2] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely [5] - On the supply side, domestic TC increased with difficulty, and some scattered orders even decreased, while imported TC further increased [5] - In August, the increase in smelting output was further realized, and the overseas mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations [5] - On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but some resilience [5] - Overseas, European demand was average, but some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees [5] - Domestically, social inventories fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventories decreased rapidly [5] - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to rebound supported by interest rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment [5] - In the medium and long term, a short position is recommended [5] - For the domestic and overseas spread, a long domestic-short overseas position can be maintained [5] - For the monthly spread, a long near-month-short far-month position can be considered [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remained at a high level [6] - On the demand side, overall demand was weak, and the premium remained stable recently [6] - On the inventory side, domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained unchanged [6] - In the short term, the fundamental situation is average, and the macro situation is mainly about anti-involution policy games [6] - The opportunity to shrink the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills cut production passively, and some in the north were affected by the military parade [7] - On the demand side, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and some replenishment increased due to the macro atmosphere [7] - In terms of costs, nickel iron and chromium iron prices remained stable [7] - In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7] - Fundamentally, the situation remained weak, and in the short term, the macro situation followed anti-involution expectations [7] - Attention should be paid to the future policy direction [8] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated [9] - On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year-on-year, and the overall supply of waste batteries was tight due to the expansion of recycling plants [9] - Under low profits, recycled lead maintained low production, and demand had no obvious boost [9] - From April to July, the concentrate production increased, but the supply was in short supply due to smelting profits, and the TC quotation declined chaotically [9] - On the demand side, the battery finished product inventory was high, and the battery production rate increased this week, but the peak season was not prosperous [9] - The refined-scrap price difference was +25, and recycled lead shipments resisted price declines [9] - LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons [9] - In July and August, there were expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking and lead ingot purchasing efforts of terminal consumers were weak this week [9] - This week, the willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited strength [9] - The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons; when the price declined, recycled lead supported the price, and the refined-scrap price difference was +25 [9] - Lead ingot spot was at a discount of 25, mainly maintaining long-term orders [9] - In August, primary lead supply is expected to increase, recycled lead production will decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but it is still expected that the inventory will remain at a high level [9] - It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low-level fluctuation next week [9] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely [12] - On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters cut production [12] - In early September, Yunnan smelters will start maintenance [12] - Overseas, the Wa State symposium released some signals of resuming production, but short-term recruitment difficulties and long equipment recovery cycles restricted large-scale exports before October [12] - African tin ore will have an increase in the long term, but the short-term increase is unstable [12] - There may be a risk of inspecting mine caves in Indonesia [12] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, and there were expectations of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the decline in photovoltaic growth was expected to be strong [12] - Domestic inventory decreased slightly in a fluctuating manner; overseas consumption was strong, and LME inventory was at a low level [12] - On the spot side, small-brand tin ingots were still in short supply, and most of the exchange inventory was high-priced Yunzi brand, and downstream had no strong willingness to pick up the goods [12] - Domestically, the short-term supply and demand situation remained weak, and attention should be paid to the possible short-term supply-demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest rate cut expectations on non-ferrous metals as a whole [12] - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium and long term, buy near the cost line [12] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the start-up rate of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was 67%, 32% in the west and 35% in the east, with a total increase of 8 units month-on-month, and the resumption of production was stable but still below market expectations [15] - The start-up rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly, and the monthly output was close to 120,000 tons [15] - In August, the supply-demand balance was still in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the core of the supply-demand balance was the rhythm and amplitude of Hoshine's resumption of production [15] - The unexpected production cut of leading enterprises had a significant marginal improvement effect on the supply-demand balance, and with the stable start-up of downstream silicone and polysilicon, the market's visible inventory decreased significantly [15] - The continuous high basis also led to the continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts [15] - In the short term, the resumption of production in the southwest and Hoshine continues to fall short of expectations, and the supply-demand balance in August is still slightly in short supply [15] - In the long term, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the start-up rate is low [15] - Under the current cost curve structure, the potential start-up elasticity is high when the price reaches above 10,000 yuan, so the long-term outlook is still a cyclical bottom shock [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, the futures market fluctuated greatly due to the expected start-up of salt lakes and mica mines [17] - On the spot side, the peak season effect was obvious, the proportion of downstream supply decreased, the volume of scattered orders increased during the week, and the enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices was high [17] - The inquiry atmosphere was active, and the trading volume increased significantly compared with last week [17] - Since the level of spot available inventory was still high, the basis remained basically stable as a whole [17] - The basis of spodumene lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,400 - 11,200 yuan, the basis of mica lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,500 - 11,200 yuan, and the basis of old ore materials (March - May) was concentrated at 11,800 - 11,100 yuan [17] - The core contradiction of lithium carbonate is that under the background of long-term overcapacity and an unbalanced supply-demand pattern, the resource side faces periodic compliance disturbances [17] - With the approaching of the downstream seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after the gradual production cut of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the performance of the peak season demand has a greater impact on the inventory reduction amplitude [17] - Therefore, in the current high macro sentiment, the price elasticity is large when the supply-side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward support is strong [17]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The risk appetite in the market has continued to rise this week. Despite the poor performance of domestic economic and financial data, the stock market sentiment remains high. In the fundamentals, the downstream orders in copper have shown support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper has continued to appear. In August, with full - scale supply, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly from January to June due to aluminum ingot imports. August is expected to be a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. Aluminum product exports have improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand has declined, and overseas demand has dropped significantly. An inventory increase is expected in August. In the short - term off - season, attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has further increased. In August, the increase in smelting output has been further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas, there may be a shortage of supply in some periods. Domestically, social inventory has fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. - For nickel, pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about anti - involution policy games. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in the US, opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are generally weak, and in the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. - Lead prices have fluctuated this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The production of recycled lead remains at a low level, and the TC quotation is in a mess. On the demand side, the inventory of battery products is high, and the peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. - Tin prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore is at a low level, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas, the resumption of production in Wa State is restricted in the short - term, and African tin ore has unstable short - term output. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the growth rate of photovoltaic demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while overseas consumption is strong, and LME inventory is at a low level. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. - For industrial silicon, the resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures market has fluctuated greatly this week due to the expected start - up of salt lakes and mica mines. In the spot market, the peak season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium remained unchanged at 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference increased by 401, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 401. The spot import profit decreased by 432.51 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Market risk appetite remains high. Downstream orders have support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper is obvious. The waste copper market is disturbed, and if the production of recycled copper rods continues to decline, it may stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 3. The SHFE social inventory increased by 54.10, and the exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement later. Aluminum product exports have improved, while photovoltaic and overseas demand have declined. An inventory increase is expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 110, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE futures import profit decreased by 90.69 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices have fluctuated widely. Domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has increased. In August, smelting output has increased. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has resilience, and overseas, there may be a short - term supply shortage. Social inventory has increased, and LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and long - term short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged at 57.0, and the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700. The spot import profit decreased, and the futures import profit decreased by 1465.31 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains high, demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is about policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 25 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the social inventory remained at 6. The LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000, and the futures import profit decreased by 25.37 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices have fluctuated. Supply is tight, and the production of recycled lead is low. Demand is weak, and the battery market is in a non - prosperous peak season. Although there is a peak - season expectation from July to August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain high. Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot import profit decreased, and the LME inventory increased. The trading volume increased by 599 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices have fluctuated widely. Supply is restricted by low processing fees and production cuts at home and abroad. Demand has an expectation of a peak season for electronic consumption but a decline in photovoltaic growth. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas consumption is strong. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 22, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased to - 345, and the 553 East China basis decreased to 505. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 51,166 to 51,049 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 82,500, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 80,200. The main - contract basis decreased by 1820, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 640 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market has fluctuated greatly due to supply - side disturbances. In the spot market, the peak - season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may have a small - scale inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a small inventory build - up in August; zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be a short - position configuration in the long - term; nickel can focus on the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak and should pay attention to policy trends; lead prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillation; tin should be observed in the short - term and held near the cost line in the long - term; industrial silicon is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term; lithium carbonate has large price elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [1][2][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 5, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 45, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 1009. - **Market Situation**: The risk - preference sentiment continued to rise this week. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, it did not affect the stock market sentiment. The downstream orders were verified to have support around 7 - 8, and the substitution effect of refined and waste copper continued to appear. The waste copper and recycled copper market was still disturbed, and if the recycled rod production continued to decline, it might stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, there may be a small - scale inventory build - up, but the market may focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the social inventory of Shanghai aluminum decreased. - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly from January to June. The demand in August is still in the seasonal off - season, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in August. Pay attention to the demand situation in the short - term and the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. The supply of domestic zinc increased in August, and the overseas mine supply in the second quarter exceeded expectations. The domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and the overseas demand was average. The domestic social inventory oscillated upwards, and the overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is a short - position configuration. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5][6]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 450. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory of domestic and overseas nickel plates remained stable. In the short - term, the fundamental situation is general, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel - stainless steel can continue to be concerned [9][10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil decreased by 75. - **Market Situation**: Some steel mills cut production passively, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend in the later stage [12][14]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 6550. - **Market Situation**: The lead price oscillated this week. The supply side had problems such as weak scrap volume and tight waste batteries. The demand side had high battery finished - product inventory and a "not - prosperous peak season". The inventory was expected to remain at a high level in August, and the lead price was expected to remain in low - level oscillation next week [15]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the spot import profit decreased by 3915.73, and the LME inventory increased by 45. - **Market Situation**: The tin price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had issues such as low processing fees at the mine end and potential production resumptions overseas. The demand side had limited solder elasticity and different trends in terminal electronics and photovoltaic consumption. The domestic inventory decreased slightly. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it can be held near the cost line [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 110, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 110. - **Market Situation**: The resumption of production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand was in a state of slight inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, the industrial silicon has a large over - capacity, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 18th to 22nd, the SMM electric - carbon price decreased by 1300, and the SMM industrial - carbon price decreased by 1300. - **Market Situation**: The futures price fluctuated greatly this week due to supply - side disturbances. The spot market had a strong peak - season effect, and the inventory was still high. The core contradiction is the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - supply in the long - term. The price has large elasticity when supply - side disturbances are hyped [23][24].