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“汇同道 谋远略 启新章”——永安期货2026年度策略会成功举办!
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-19 10:28
Core Insights - The 2026 strategy conference held by Yong'an Futures in Hangzhou focused on exploring wealth management strategies amid complex macroeconomic changes, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and innovation in the financial sector [1] - Yong'an Futures aims to become a leading derivatives investment bank, focusing on six key areas: deepening industry services, enhancing wealth management, accelerating internationalization, strengthening research capabilities, promoting digital transformation, and adhering to long-term investment principles [1] Macroeconomic Environment and Asset Allocation - The chief economist of Caitong Securities highlighted the divergence between nominal and real economic indicators, suggesting reliance on fiscal and monetary policies to navigate the complexities of the macroeconomic landscape [2] - A multi-asset allocation strategy was proposed, emphasizing the importance of balancing risk and return while adapting to changing economic conditions and enhancing residents' risk appetite [2] Commodity Market Outlook - The head of Yong'an Futures Research Center projected a recovery in commodity prices driven by proactive domestic policies and external demand, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, which is supported by AI and new energy demands [3] - Structural opportunities in the market were identified, with a focus on sectors experiencing supply disruptions and increased demand [3] Investment Philosophy and Strategies - Investment strategies discussed included a focus on "probability thinking" and "low correlation" to create resilient portfolios capable of withstanding economic cycles [2][3] - The importance of a balanced investment approach was emphasized, with a focus on redemptive assets as a foundation for navigating market fluctuations [3] Discussions on Asset Management and Technology - Roundtable discussions addressed the transition from product-centric to client-centric investment approaches, highlighting the need for collaboration and innovation in asset management [5] - The role of AI in enhancing quantitative investment processes and risk management was a key topic, with insights into how AI can redefine investment strategies [5] Future Directions - Yong'an Futures plans to reshape its research ecosystem with a focus on customer-centric services and data-driven decision-making, aiming to set a benchmark in the commodity research field [6]
构建“理性共识” 追求“合理价格”
Core Insights - The founder and general manager of Zhiyu Zhishan Investment, He Li, emphasizes the integration of subjective insights, quantitative tools, and AI technology to create a scientific investment system that evolves continuously and seeks "rational consensus" [1][2] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Value investment is defined as a combination of good assets and good prices, with a focus on buying when market prices significantly discount the consensus value range determined by future free cash flow [1] - The company aims to construct a "anti-fragile" investment portfolio using options and other tools to benefit from market volatility rather than suffer from it [1] - Examples include increasing stock positions and buying call options before the "9.24 market" in 2024, and purchasing put options on the Nasdaq index in April 2025 as insurance against high valuations in the tech sector [1] Group 2: AI Integration - The company has developed an AI system called "AI Cybertron," which integrates research, trading, risk control, and backtesting, making AI an essential part of every operational aspect [2] - AI enhances efficiency and fosters the development of better solutions through continuous discussions and iterations with the team [2] - A systematic approach to covering cutting-edge fields and maintaining a stable network of industry experts ensures that every viewpoint and transaction is traceable and analyzable [2] Group 3: Investment Examples - A successful investment in a US AI hardware company exemplifies the integration of investment philosophy and system, with initial investments made in 2022 based on its quality during a cyclical downturn [3] - As understanding of AI deepened, the company increased its valuation assessment and adjusted positions based on "quality-price ratio" [3] Group 4: Asset Outlook - The company is optimistic about the AI sector, believing there is no overall bubble, but warns of potential overheating at the individual stock level [4] - Focus areas include the computing power segment, particularly storage, which is expected to yield excess profits due to ongoing demand [4] - In the innovative drug sector, the company notes a trend where overseas firms lead in first-in-class (FIC) drugs while Chinese firms excel in best-in-class (BIC) drugs, with a caution on high stock price increases reflecting optimistic expectations [4] Group 5: Future Core Assets - The company identifies three categories of "new core assets" for 2026: AI technology innovation companies driving industrial upgrades, new consumer companies providing "emotional value" and high quality-price ratios, and resource and energy companies with scarcity in the changing global supply landscape [4]