Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bull market in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trends and investor psychology during periods of volatility [4][10]. Market Performance - The recent bull market lasted from the end of 2018 to the end of 2021, with the Wande All A index experiencing a maximum increase of 87.14% and a maximum drawdown of -16.4% due to the pandemic [4]. - There were 11 instances of drawdowns exceeding 5%, with an average recovery time of 38 days, and missing these recoveries could result in an average loss of 41% in potential gains [7][8]. Investor Sentiment - Investors have become more sensitive to drawdowns due to the prolonged bear market over the past three years, which has been compounded by economic downturns and declining incomes [8]. - The article suggests that to benefit from a bull market, investors must be mentally prepared to accept drawdowns, as avoiding them could lead to missed opportunities for gains [8][10]. Market Outlook - The long-term outlook remains positive, with the belief that any short-term pullbacks are likely part of the ongoing bull market rather than the start of a new bear market [10]. - The market is currently in an upward trend, supported by a positive cycle of increasing investment and market confidence [11]. Valuation and Comparison - As of July 25, the Wande All A index had a price-to-book ratio of 1.7, which is within a reasonable range compared to historical data [13]. - A-shares are relatively undervalued compared to other global indices, indicating potential for growth [15]. Policy Support - Continuous policy support from regulatory bodies is expected to maintain market stability and growth [18]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has expressed commitment to consolidating the positive market trend [18]. Capital Flow - The market is experiencing ample liquidity, with significant potential for incremental capital inflow as household savings remain high and interest rates decline [19]. - Foreign institutional investors are currently underweight in A-shares, suggesting room for increased investment from abroad [19]. Conclusion - The article concludes that in a bull market, short-term trading can be risky, and investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not exit the market prematurely [20].

Core Viewpoint - Silver bulls face a failed upward attack, yet the overall upward trend remains unaffected, indicating potential for future price movements [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the recent challenges faced by silver bulls in their attempts to push prices higher [1] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying pullbacks and reversals in the silver market for better investment strategies [1] - The ongoing live session by researcher Steven aims to provide insights into market trends and trading strategies related to silver [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests waiting for a pullback in the stock index futures market before taking long positions. Although the sudden Middle - East conflict has shaken the global market, the impact on the stock index is mainly on short - term risk appetite, and there is little substantial influence. After the risk is digested and market sentiment calms down, the market will return to being driven by fundamentals and rebound [2]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the market rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points several times but declined due to the Israel - Iran conflict. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, affected by commodity price fluctuations caused by the geopolitical conflict. Despite positive news on Sino - US trade, the stock index was supported by risk preference but did not break through, and local theme trading emerged based on new short - term variables [1]. - The Middle - East conflict has caused a sharp rise and then a fall in crude oil prices (a 10% increase followed by a decline), a significant increase in safe - haven assets like gold, and a collective decline in global stock markets. However, historical experience shows that military conflicts rarely lead to major inflection points in the macro - economy and asset prices, and there are still opportunities to go long after the stock index pulls back [2]. - Attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data on Monday and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Wait patiently for a pullback to go long. The core operating ranges for the IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 contracts are expected to be between 3741 - 3934 points, 2599 - 2719 points, 5557 - 5930 points, and 5871 - 6267 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Indexes**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.32%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.63%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 Index rose 0.14%, the German DAX Index fell 3.24%, and the French CAC40 Index fell 1.54%. In the Asia - Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.25% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.42% [9]. - **Domestic Indexes**: Most of the major domestic indexes declined last week. Since 2025, the performance of various indexes has also been mixed [9][13]. - **Industry Performance**: The industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes showed mixed performance last week [15]. Index Futures Market Review - Among the futures contracts last week, the IC2506 contract had the largest increase, and the IM2506 contract had the largest amplitude. Both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [17][20]. - The basis (futures - spot) of the main futures contracts and the cross - variety ratios of futures contracts are also presented in the report [21]. Index Valuation Tracking - The price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 14.64 times, 12.56 times, 10.91 times, 29.24 times, and 40.16 times respectively [22][23]. Market Fundamentals Review - The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [25].