证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250801 从微观出发的风格轮动月度跟踪 202508 2025 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的风格轮动月度 跟踪 202507》 2025-07-01 ◼ 2025 年 7 月风格轮动模型收益率为 2.52%。 ◼ 2025 年 8 月最新风格择时方向为：低估值、大市值、反转、低波。 ◼ 2025 年 8 月风格择时最新持仓为： 表1：2025 年 8 月风格择时最新持仓 | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | ETF 代码 | ETF 名称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 399378.SZ | ESG 300 | 159653.SZ | ESG300ETF | | 930839.CSI | 港股通高息精选 | 159691.S ...

- Model Name: Style Rotation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is built from basic style factors such as valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum, gradually constructing a style timing and scoring system[1][6] - Model Construction Process: 1. Construct 640 micro features based on 80 underlying micro indicators[1][6] 2. Use common indices as style stock pools instead of absolute proportion division of style factors to construct new style returns as labels[1][6] 3. Use a rolling training random forest model to avoid overfitting risks, select features, and obtain style recommendations[1][6] 4. Construct a style rotation framework from style timing to style scoring and from style scoring to actual investment[1][6] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively avoids overfitting risks and provides a comprehensive framework for style rotation from timing to scoring and actual investment[1][6] Model Backtest Results - Style Rotation Model, Annualized Return: 21.63%, Annualized Volatility: 24.09%, IR: 0.90, Monthly Win Rate: 59.12%, Maximum Drawdown: 28.33%[7][8] - Market Benchmark, Annualized Return: 7.21%, Annualized Volatility: 21.56%, IR: 0.33, Monthly Win Rate: 56.20%, Maximum Drawdown: 43.34%[8] - Excess Return, Annualized Return: 13.35%, Annualized Volatility: 11.43%, IR: 1.17, Monthly Win Rate: 66.42%, Maximum Drawdown: 10.28%[7][8] Monthly Performance - June 2025, Style Rotation Model Return: 1.28%, Excess Return: -2.51%[13] - July 2025, Latest Style Timing Directions: Low Valuation, Small Market Cap, Reversal, Low Volatility[13] - July 2025, Latest Holding Index: CSI Dividend Index[13]