来自内蒙古霍林郭勒的电解铝龙头企业创新实业集团有限公司(股份代号：02788.HK，简称"创新实 业")11月24日在港交所主板挂牌上市。 作为中国电解铝行业的出海领军者，创新实业此次IPO在公开发售阶段便受到资金热烈追捧，券商数据 显示，IPO国际配售获40余倍认购，吸引超300家全球顶级机构踊跃下单，包括主权基金、顶级国际长 线、中资长线等多家意见领袖机构强势入驻。同时，香港公开发售获得近450倍超额认购，市场参与度 火爆。 按当前募资规模测算，创新实业本次发行募资额有望跻身年度前十，以不含A+H股计，发行募资额有 望进入今年前三。 据了解，公司计划在2026年底将绿色能源占比提升至约50%，此举将大幅降低企业用电成本并增强整体 盈利能力。沙特阿拉伯作为创新实业海外布局的核心阵地，当地稳定且低成本的能源供给契合电解铝生 产的能源密集型特性，同时中东地区庞大的制造业扩张需求也为公司提供了本地市场空间。随着创新实 业把握中东电解铝产业链的增长机遇，未来产能的持续提升也将具备更稳固的基础。 值得注意的是，创新实业本次IPO具备估值优势。公司本次IPO发行对应2025年市盈率7.9倍，相较之 下，明显低于港股行业 ...

帮主用20年经验拆解：银行股逆势涨，核心还是低估值+高股息，在震荡市里成了资金的"避风港"；锂板块走强，离不开碳酸锂价格回升的基本面支撑；而 中船系、旅游板块调整，要么是前期涨多了获利回吐，要么是缺乏持续的政策或业绩催化。 最关键的信号是缩量！缩量调整意味着市场抛压不算重，但买盘也不够积极，属于"多空僵持"的状态。这种行情下，盲目追涨杀跌绝对是大忌，你是不是也 想趁着回调抄底？ 明日策略直接划重点：优先守住有基本面支撑的主线，比如低估值的银行、供需改善的锂板块；远离前期涨幅过高、没业绩支撑的题材股，尤其是旅游、中 船系这类调整中的板块，别着急抄底；另外，关注明日能否补量，要是持续缩量，就控制好仓位，别重仓押注单一板块。 今天你是盈利还是亏损？最看好明天哪个板块反弹？评论区聊聊，点赞关注，帮主明天开盘实时跟踪盘面动向！ 老铁们，今天A股这行情太磨人了！沪指高开低走跌0.40%，创业板直接跌1.12%，更扎心的是超3850只个股下跌，是不是很多人手里的票又在默默吃面？ 先盘盘今天的市场真相：沪深京三市成交额17226亿元，还比昨天缩量200亿，量能萎缩说明啥？资金都在观望不敢动啊！但分化也太明显了——一边是银 行 ...

申万宏源近期表示，造船标的普遍处于低估值水位。中国船舶（600150）、中船防务H的手持订单金额 约560亿、70亿美元，市值订单比0.65、0.36倍，处于历史相对低位。方正证券此前指出，中船防务是中 船集团旗下大型骨干造船企业和国家核心军工生产企业，在手订单充足，盈利能力有望随高价船交付稳 定兑现。 消息面上，根据知名造船和海运研究机构克拉克森研究最新数据，今年10月，全球新船订单成交量为 291万修正总吨（CGT），按CGT计比去年同期的471万CGT下降了38%。其中，中国船企承接新船订单 98艘213万CGT，全球市场占有率为73%，位居榜首。此外，中泰证券（600918）近日研报指出，地缘 局势不确定性加剧，军工板块关注度有望提升。 中船防务（600685）(00317)盘中拉升，现涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.14%，报15.55港元，成交额1.98亿 港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中船防务(00317)盘中拉升，现涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.14%，报15.55港元，成交 额1.98亿港元。 申万宏源近期表示，造船标的普遍处于低估值水位。中国船舶、中船防务H的手持订单金额约560亿、 70亿美元，市值订单比0.65、0.36倍，处于历史相对低位。方正证券此前指出，中船防务是中船集团旗 下大型骨干造船企业和国家核心军工生产企业，在手订单充足，盈利能力有望随高价船交付稳定兑现。 消息面上，根据知名造船和海运研究机构克拉克森研究最新数据，今年10月，全球新船订单成交量为 291万修正总吨（CGT），按CGT计比去年同期的471万CGT下降了38%。其中，中国船企承接新船订单 98艘213万CGT，全球市场占有率为73%，位居榜首。此外，中泰证券近日研报指出，地缘局势不确定 性加剧，军工板块关注度有望提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, PVC futures prices have hit a nearly ten-year low due to increased supply and decreased demand, particularly influenced by a sluggish real estate sector [1][2]. Supply - 2025 is expected to be a peak year for PVC capacity expansion, with an additional 2.2 million tons projected, leading to a total capacity of 29.93 million tons by year-end, a year-on-year increase of 7.35% [1]. - As of November 14, domestic PVC social inventory was 1.0282 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.27% month-on-month but a significant increase of 23.75% year-on-year, indicating high inventory pressure [1]. Demand - The current demand for PVC is characterized by "weak domestic and strong external" factors, with 80% of downstream demand related to real estate and infrastructure, both of which have seen declines in investment and new projects [1]. - The low operating rates in consumption areas such as pipes and profiles, along with a lack of positive factors in the infrastructure sector, contribute to overall weak demand [1]. Export - India's PVC demand has been growing, with a demand gap of 3 million tons per year, heavily reliant on imports. China's PVC exports to India surged from 7.3% in 2020 to 50.9% in 2024 [2]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China exported 3.3941 million tons of PVC, a year-on-year increase of 47.78%, with 1.215 million tons going to India, accounting for 41.6% of total exports [2]. Cost - Recent declines in oil and coal prices have weakened cost support for PVC, with prices falling below cost lines, leading to industry-wide losses [2]. - The integrated chlor-alkali enterprises are maintaining PVC production through high profits from caustic soda, but the price of caustic soda has dropped by 30% from its peak, making this strategy unsustainable [2]. Short-term Outlook - In the short term, PVC supply continues to grow while demand remains weak, leading to significant inventory pressure and insufficient upward price momentum [3]. - PVC is currently in a low valuation area, with negative factors largely priced in, suggesting limited downside potential. The market is expected to remain in a "bottoming out" and "capping" oscillation pattern, with the 2601 contract projected to trade between 4,400 and 4,800 yuan per ton [3].

成本方面，近期油价和煤价下跌导致PVC成本支撑减弱。截至11月17日，PVC价格跌破成本线，全行业 亏损，电石法亏损700元／吨，乙烯法亏损560元／吨。氯碱综合利润方面，山东氯碱综合利润约-20元 ／吨，基本盈亏平衡。西北氯碱综合利润约1000元／吨。氯碱一体化企业依靠烧碱高利润维持PVC生 产，但烧碱价格自年内高点已回落30%，"以碱补氯"难以持续，行业或迎来新一轮产能调整，高成本装 置将被淘汰。整体来看，PVC行业正面临"成本支撑塌陷+需求恢复乏力"双重压力。 短期来看，PVC供应持续增长，需求偏弱，库存压力大，价格上涨动力不足。但是，当前PVC已处于低 估值区域，利空因素基本得到充分消化，价格下行空间也有限。综合来看，PVC期货短期弱势难改，市 场处于"下有底，上有顶"的震荡格局之中，预计2601合约在4400~4800元／吨区间运行。（作者单位： 广州期货） 需求方面，"内弱外强"是当前PVC需求端最显著的特征。PVC下游需求中八成与房地产、基建相关，近 年来房地产市场低迷，投资、新开工等数据下滑。管材、型材等消费领域开工率偏低，基建领域缺乏利 多，需求端整体疲软。同时PVC在医疗、包装等新兴领域的 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 重视年底高股息标的的配置价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 建筑板块具备估值低、机构持仓少、市值容量大、优质标的展望稳健等核心特性。市场高低切， 建筑行业优选 4 大方向：1）三季报业绩好，具备更强短期业绩确定性。2）股息率高，具备更 强的持股安全垫。3）长期成长性强。4）绝对估值低的大市值权重标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 重视年底高股息标的的配置价值 [Table_Summary2] 2026 年保险业"开门红"启幕，增量资金有望加速入市 从行业惯例来看，每年 10 月到次年 2 月，险企会集中推出高吸引力产品。11 月 9 日，北京商 ...

Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a notable adjustment in the AI sector, particularly in the ChiNext AI index, which saw a decline of over 3% in a single day, indicating a broader market correction [3][4] - The banking sector is showing strong performance, with the China Securities Banking Index rising over 9% since October, significantly outperforming the broader market and the ChiNext index by nearly 13% [4][6] - High dividend yields and low valuations in the banking sector are attracting investor interest, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [4][6] Market Temperature - The market temperature gauge indicates a mixed sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index at a 99.09% percentile, Shenzhen Component Index at 84.36%, and ChiNext Index at 43% [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net inflows include Defense and Military (846 million), Real Estate (545 million), and Construction Decoration (471 million) [2] - The sectors with the largest net outflows are Electronics (-14.608 billion), Electric Equipment (-8.542 billion), and Chemical Engineering (-5.713 billion) [2] ETF Performance - The banking ETF (512800) has shown a 0.85% increase on the day and a 4.82% increase over the past six months, indicating strong investor confidence [3][6] - The AI-focused ChiNext ETF (159363) has experienced a significant decline, reflecting the broader market's adjustment in technology stocks [3][4] Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy in the banking sector is supported by its high dividend yield and stable operational characteristics, making it attractive for investors seeking safety and income [4][6] - The AI hardware and computing sectors are expected to remain key market drivers in the upcoming year, despite recent volatility [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has reached a milestone with cumulative net purchases from southbound funds exceeding 50 billion HKD, reflecting unprecedented enthusiasm from mainland investors for Hong Kong stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Southbound Fund Inflows - Southbound funds have recorded a net inflow of 1.31 trillion HKD in 2023, marking a historical high for the year, which is over 60% higher than the previous record of 810 billion HKD in 2024 [3]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have both seen gains exceeding 30% this year, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index rising over 80% [3]. - The low valuation and high dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks are key factors driving the inflow of southbound funds [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Shift - There has been a notable shift in the investment strategy of southbound funds from a growth-oriented "offensive" approach to a more defensive strategy emphasizing high dividend yields [5][6]. - Financials have become the core asset for southbound funds, accounting for 39% of net purchases since 2025, with the top three sectors being financials, information technology, and consumer discretionary [6]. - A significant example of this shift is the movement of funds from Alibaba to China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with Alibaba experiencing a net sell-off of approximately 11 billion HKD in market value over the past month [6][7]. Group 3: Sector Rotation - Southbound funds are increasingly favoring high dividend sectors while reducing exposure to high-growth, high-valuation sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, media, and computing [7]. - Traditional industries like banking, oil and gas, telecommunications, and coal are attracting significant inflows due to their low valuations and high dividend yields, becoming a "safe haven" for investors [7][8]. - The market's risk appetite appears to be shifting towards a more conservative stance, focusing on high dividend stocks rather than technology stocks [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint of the Report - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. It is recommended to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium and long term [3][29] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - From late October to now, the urea price has rebounded from the bottom, which is essentially a rebound and repair under low valuation. The new round of export quotas has boosted market sentiment, and the spot market's low - price transactions have improved. However, domestic supply pressure still suppresses the bullish sentiment, so the rebound strength is limited [3][8][29] 2. Basis and Spread - After the previous continuous decline in urea prices, the spot sentiment has improved, especially after the issuance of export quotas, which has promoted a slight strengthening of the basis. On October 20, the basis in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton, and on November 11, it was - 30 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated. On October 20, the UR01 - 05 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, and on November 11, it was - 77 yuan/ton [9] 3. Supply - Side Analysis 3.1 Supply - The recent rebound in urea prices has slightly improved upstream profits, but they are still at a poor level, lower than the previous two years. Urea prices are still weak compared to coal prices. The upstream urea start - up has slightly increased. As of the week of November 6, the weekly urea start - up rate in China was 83.55%, a month - on - month increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.92 percentage points. The gas - head start - up rate was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.09 percentage points. The weekly coal - head urea output was 1130000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 140000 tons. The estimated daily output is expected to remain at a high level of about 190000 - 200000 tons next week [11] 3.2 Inventory - Due to the continuous release of high supply, domestic urea inventory has always been at a high level in the past five years. Since June, there has been an obvious phenomenon of export container gathering at ports, which has alleviated the domestic supply - demand pressure to some extent. After the new round of export quotas, there may be another round of container gathering. As of the week of November 6, the weekly enterprise inventory of urea in China was 1342000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 170000 tons. The weekly port inventory was 205000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 66000 tons. The new round of export quotas and winter storage demand may reduce the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [16] 4. Demand - Side Analysis 4.1 Export - Since June, domestic urea exports have begun to relax, and the export volume has increased significantly. The new round of export quota is about 600000 tons, which will help alleviate the current domestic supply pressure. Even if the urea price drops again, it will probably stimulate the storage demand of enterprises, and there is support at the previous low price [20][22] 4.2 Domestic - The fourth quarter is the off - season for domestic demand, and the relatively concentrated demand is mainly winter storage demand. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand may make storage enterprises relatively cautious. However, the supply - demand pressure has been reflected in the current urea price, and the price is at a low level. It is a good choice for storage enterprises to gradually build inventories at the current price. As of November 6, the weekly inventory of compound fertilizers was 630000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80000 tons. The weekly output was 1070000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 66000 tons. The weekly start - up rate of melamine was 52.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.27 percentage points [23] 5. Summary and Outlook - The market review is consistent with the previous content. The price bottom of urea may gradually become clear. It is recommended to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium and long term [29][30]