证券研究报告 中国香港股票市场特征与投资者结构分析 ——跨境投资洞察系列之二 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 研究助理 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 2025年10月10日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 风险提示：港股市场流动性与结构性风险；南向资金流向变动风险；国际资本流动与地缘政治风险。 1 核心观点：中国香港作为全球金融枢纽，其市场结构已深度"内地化"和"新经济化"，并呈现出一定的"低估值"与"高股息"特征。 与此同时，投资者结构正在发生深刻变革，内地资金正成为市场核心的边际定价力量。 市场概览与结构特征：香港交易所是全球领先的金融市场之一，其上市公司总市值稳居全球前列。香港股票市场由主板和创业板构成， 其中港股主板是香港资本市场的核心，在上市公司数量和市值规模上均占据绝对核心地位。内地企业已成为香港股票市场的主要构成者， 截至2025年7月末，上市数量占上市公司总量的5 ...

2025年10月10日A股三大指数集体低开，全市场超2300只个股下跌，从板块上来看，煤炭、纺织服装、 建筑材料、非银金融板块领涨，电子、电力设备、计算机板块领跌。交通运输ETF（159666）逆势走强 上涨0.6%，持仓股东莞控股涨超5%，华夏航空、海峡股份涨超3%。 交通运输ETF（159666）及其联接基金（019405/019404）是全市场唯一跟踪中证全指运输指数的ETF基 金，交通运输板块中的公司具备高股息、低估值和稳健业绩的特征，其涵盖了A股市场包括物流、铁路 公路、航运港口、机场等，能够充分反映出A股运输行业上市公司的整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面，2025年国庆假期出行客流创历史同期新高。国庆及中秋假期八天，全社会跨区域人员流动量累 计达到24.33亿人次，日均同比+6.3%，较2019年同期+30.8%；其中铁路/公路/民航/水运累计客运量分别 为1.54亿/22.48亿/1914万/1166万人次，日均同比分别+2.6%/+6.6%/+3.3%/+4.1%。 ...

能源化工日报 2025-10-09 能源化工组 张正华 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 橡胶分析师 国庆期间外围市场震荡运行，截至 10 月 8 日下午 3 点，WTI 原油主力合约报价$62.33/桶；Brent 原油主力合约报价$65.89/桶。行业层面，美国 API 行业数据显示库欣库存维持去库 115 万桶， 整体库存情况仍处良性。OPEC 会议于 10 月 5 日结束，开会途中，相关能源部官员表态可能增 产 45 万桶/日，但最终结果仍然为 13.7 万桶/日，会议结果为"原则性低速增产"。 【策略观点】 zhangzh@wkqh.cn OPEC 在此次会议中继续体现出挺价意愿略微大于份额意愿的犹豫态度，虽然整体库存水平表现 良性，但 OPEC 保持微增计划将持续压制油价上方空间。预计原油短期仍然保持震荡走势。 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/10/09 甲醇 【行情资讯】 过节期间海外原油先跌后涨，整体小幅下跌，其他 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 低估值、红利风格交易活跃度继续回升—— W127 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周市场成交量小幅缩量，上证周度微涨，创业板指周度涨幅接近 2%。当周成长风格继续修 复领涨，尤其是中盘成长、高波、高贝塔类，表现普遍较佳。从成交活跃度来看，基础风格中 红利、低估值当周成交活跃度继续回升，成长风格前期小幅回落后再度上行，微盘股拥挤度继 续下滑。一级行业中油气、食品饮料、保险等板块周度拥挤度分位仍位于底部；基金重仓 50 领 涨基金重仓系列指数，2025 年年初至今大幅跑赢沪深 300 指数；行业板块内信息技术与硬件 领涨。主题行情中，新型烟草、专精特新精选指数领涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 低估值、红利风格交易活跃度继续回升 2] —— W127 市场观察 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-09- ...

能源化工日报 2025-09-26 【行情资讯】 原油 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 8.30 元/桶，涨幅 1.72%，报 490.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 37.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.30%，报 2887.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.56%，报 3450.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 0.61 百万桶至 414.75 百万桶，环比去库 0.15%；SPR 补库 0.23 百万桶至 405.96 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 1.08 百万桶 至 216.57 百万桶，环比去库 0.50%；柴油库存去库 1.69 百万桶至 123.00 百万桶，环比去库 1.35%；燃料油库存累库 0.32 百万桶至 21.12 百万桶，环比累库 1.52%；航空煤油库存累库 1.05 百万桶至 44.95 百万桶，环比累库 2.40%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢 ...

Summary of Bulk Supply Chain Industry Research Industry Overview - The bulk supply chain industry has a low net profit margin, typically ranging from 0.5% to 0.6%, with state-owned enterprises enjoying significant advantages in funding rates, creating high barriers to entry [1][3][4] - The demand growth driven by urbanization in China allows leading companies to achieve continuous growth by increasing market share, demonstrating resilience through economic cycles [1][3] - Since 2025, commodity prices have stabilized or increased, coupled with anti-involution policies, which are expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of bulk supply chain companies [1][3][6] Core Competitiveness - Key competitive advantages of bulk supply chain companies include: - High dividend yields and low valuations (PE) [5][6] - Thin profit margins but significant profitability elasticity [5][6] - High entry barriers and advantages for state-owned enterprises [5][6] - Broad growth potential, with opportunities to increase market share [5][6] Business Model - Bulk supply chain companies operate on a light asset model, locking in upstream and downstream orders to mitigate price volatility risks and secure stable service fees [1][7] - They generate profits through capital advances and comprehensive logistics services, requiring bank loan support and utilizing futures to hedge risks [1][12] Market Trends - The bulk supply chain market in China is expected to show a trend of concentration among leading companies, which will leverage economies of scale to capture larger market shares over the next decade [1][16] - Despite the current low concentration in the market, leading companies are anticipated to achieve sustained growth and resilience through natural market share concentration [16][17] Financial Performance - The industry has experienced fluctuations in profit margins due to intensified competition, accounting standard changes, and improved resource turnover efficiency [14][15] - Companies like Xiamen Xiangyu have maintained net profit margins around 0.5% to 0.6%, indicating significant elasticity in profitability during favorable market conditions [3][5] Risk Management - Bulk supply chain companies employ various strategies to mitigate price risks, including collecting a 15% deposit from customers and using a combination of futures and spot contracts for hedging [13][24] - Effective risk management is crucial for long-term stability, especially given the low profit margins where any risk event can significantly impact net profits [25] Recent Developments - In the first half of 2025, the profitability of bulk supply chain companies showed improvement, with some companies achieving approximately 30% year-on-year growth through volume increases and customer structure optimization [30][31] - Companies have adapted to industry downturns by lowering service fees for quality clients and focusing resources on stronger operational partners to enhance stability and profitability [29][30] Future Outlook - The bulk supply chain industry is expected to continue evolving towards modernization and specialization, enhancing risk control and capital management [11][26] - The market remains promising, with opportunities for leading companies to expand overseas and optimize customer structures to recover and enhance profitability [31][32]

投资要点： 机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：盛开/钟启辉 本报告导读： 低估值、高股息优质标的，当前时点在供需再平衡与原料价格温和之下重拾向上势头。公司客户群体优 质，未来有望凭借海外成熟产能承接更多订单，增长潜力可期。 投资建议：我 们看好公司发挥弹性面料领域多年经验，深化与国内外知名运动户外品牌客户合作，凭 借成熟海外产能在纺服制造贸易格局调整中获取更多订单。我们预计公司2025-27 年归母净利润分别为 5.9、6.4、7.0 亿港元。综合PE 估值与PB 估值两种方法，取平均值4.42 港元/股作为目标价，首次覆 盖，给予增持评级。 公司概览：公司深耕弹性面料超20 年，高管经验丰富，管理团队稳定。立足弹性面料拓展运动面料生 意，目前运动面料贡献55.4%的收入，并开拓ARC'TERYX、Lululemon、NIKE、adidas、安踏、李宁等 国内外知名运动户外品牌客户。当前公司在中国、越南、斯里兰卡均布局有成熟产能，海外厂房面积与 国内相当。公司历经成长初期、国际扩张期、供需平衡期，当前重拾向上势头。 财务分析：2011-24 年公司收入CAGR+10.4%，其中运动面料收入CAGR+38.2%，领跑 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is considered a high-quality target with low valuation and high dividends, showing potential for growth due to a favorable supply-demand rebalancing and moderate raw material prices [3]. - The company has a strong customer base and is expected to leverage its mature overseas production capacity to secure more orders in the future [3]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 5,061 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HKD 608 million, reflecting a significant increase of 75.3% [5]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 4.80 in 2024, indicating a low valuation compared to historical averages [5]. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in elastic fabric production and has established itself as a leader in the lingerie materials market, providing comprehensive procurement solutions for well-known brands [16]. - The company has successfully transitioned to become a significant supplier of sports fabrics, with major clients including ARC'TERYX, NIKE, and adidas [16][27]. Growth Drivers - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4% from 2011 to 2024, with sports fabric revenue growing at a CAGR of 38.2%, outpacing other categories [44]. - The demand for sports apparel is expected to continue growing, benefiting elastic fabric suppliers as consumer health awareness increases [59]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the adjustment of production capacity under new trade dynamics, with a focus on high-quality clients and long-term partnerships [11]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 50%, with a dividend yield exceeding 9% for four consecutive years [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced fluctuations and adjustments since September, with an increase in risk aversion, leading some funds to shift towards dividend assets characterized by low valuations and high dividends [1] Market Overview - Since September, the Shanghai Composite Index has declined by 1.18%, indicating a volatile market with structural characteristics becoming more pronounced [2] - Industries such as defense, computer, and electronics have seen significant pullbacks, with the defense industry index dropping over 10% [2] - Conversely, cyclical industries like electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities have strengthened, with electric equipment industry rising over 5% [2] Stock Performance - Over 3,000 stocks have declined since September, with over 450 stocks falling more than 10%, while over 400 stocks have increased by more than 10% [3] - Stocks that have risen by at least 10% exhibit notable high dividend characteristics, with the average market capitalization of these "big gainers" being below 15 billion, compared to nearly 19 billion for "big losers" [4] Dividend Assets - High dividends are a significant feature of the stocks that have surged in September, with dividend assets attracting considerable capital [5] - As of September 9, the overall stock market saw a net outflow of over 8 billion in stock ETFs, while dividend-themed ETFs experienced a net inflow of over 800 million [5] - Financing balances in industries like electric equipment and non-ferrous metals have increased, with electric equipment seeing a rise of over 15% [5] Stability and Risk Buffer - Dividend assets have shown significant anti-drawdown characteristics during market downturns, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index in several instances since 2020 [6][7] - The dividend index has a lower price-to-earnings ratio compared to other indices, indicating a more attractive valuation for risk-averse investors [8] Investment Strategy - The dividend sector, characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, serves as a strong defensive choice in a volatile market [9] - The consumer sector, while undervalued, offers stable dividend returns and growth potential, suitable for long-term investors [9] - The technology sector, despite its high growth potential, presents certain investment risks due to lower dividend yields and relatively high valuations [9]