能源化工日报 2025-08-25 原油 2025/08/25 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：截至上周五，WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.29 美元，涨幅 0.46%，报 63.77 美元；布伦 特主力原油期货收涨 0.12 美元，涨幅 0.18%，报 67.79 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.30 元， 涨幅 0.47%，报 487 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.03 百万桶至 8.73 百万桶，环比去 库 0.29%；柴油库存环比累库 1.27 百万桶至 15.16 百万桶，环比累库 9.13%；燃料油库存环 比去库 0.11 百万桶至 6.64 百万桶，环比去库 1.60%；石脑油环比去库 0.75 百万桶至 4.97 百 万桶，环比去库 13.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.17 百万桶至 7.45 百万桶，环比累库 2.27%； 总体成品油环比累库 0.55 百万桶至 42.95 百万桶，环比累库 1.31%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6][17] Core Views - The company's revenue from supply chain trade, cross-border multimodal transport, and land port projects is projected to be 65.72%, 27.96%, and 5.64% respectively in 2024, with gross profit contributions of 42.41%, 41.63%, and 15.79% [1] - The company has faced pressure in its Mongolian coal business, with a 8.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports and a 39.6% drop in import prices, but there are signs of potential recovery due to policy changes [2] - The African cross-border logistics network is developing, with the acquisition of BHL expected to enhance operational efficiency and expand into broader international markets [3] - The company is considered undervalued with a projected PE of approximately 12 times for 2025, and an estimated dividend yield of around 5% for 2026 [4] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 6,995.26 million in 2023 to 11,533.70 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 44.85% in 2023 and a projected 12.61% in 2027 [10][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 1,038.79 million in 2023 to 1,204.52 million in 2025, before increasing to 1,753.88 million in 2027 [10][11] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to rise from 1,297.88 million in 2023 to 2,330.67 million in 2027, indicating a strong operational performance [10][11]

Group 1 - The overall scale of ETFs is growing, but domestic stock ETFs are experiencing significant redemptions, with the total fund share falling to 1.96 trillion shares by the end of July [1][4] - As of the end of July, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 3.1 trillion yuan, an increase of over 70.3 billion yuan compared to the previous month [1][2] - The trend of increased net redemptions in stock ETFs has been notable, with July marking the second-highest net redemption of the year, following February [4][5] Group 2 - The broad-based ETFs, which account for the largest share, are key to the redemption situation of stock ETFs, with a total fund share of 1 trillion shares as of the end of July, a decrease of 79.04 billion shares from June [5][6] - The A500 index-linked broad-based ETFs have seen the most significant redemptions, with 21 ETFs linked to the index experiencing net redemptions of over 1 billion shares in July [5][7] - The scale of A500-linked ETFs dropped from over 210 billion yuan in June to 178 billion yuan by the end of July, a decrease of 38.1 billion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - Despite the redemptions in broad-based ETFs, industry-themed ETFs continued to see net subscriptions in July, particularly in dividend themes and undervalued sectors [1][8] - The banking sector ETF was the most subscribed stock ETF in July, with an increase of 9.99 billion shares, bringing its scale to 14.577 billion yuan [8][11] - Other industry-themed ETFs, such as those related to financial technology and liquor, also saw significant net subscriptions, indicating a diverse interest from investors [9][10][12] Group 4 - Looking ahead, institutional analysts remain optimistic about continued inflows into ETFs, with expectations that industry ETFs will remain active as tools for investors to participate in structural market trends [3][12] - The anticipated market volatility in August, coupled with the current earnings disclosure period, is expected to favor technology sectors and small-cap styles [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent market pullback primarily due to internal and external expectation adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index down 4.5% from its recent peak, compared to a 2.3% decline in the CSI 300[3] - External factors, such as rising US Treasury yields (up to 4.4%) and a strengthening US dollar (breaking the 100 mark), have exerted greater pressure on Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares[5] - Southbound capital inflow surged to a net inflow of HKD 59 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since April 11, 2025[6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in technology, gaming, and e-commerce leaders[2] - Recommended to focus on stocks with reasonable valuations and improving fundamentals, especially in the innovative pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors[7] - The report suggests a tactical approach centered around upcoming mid-year earnings reports, with a focus on companies expected to deliver strong earnings[7]

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, influenced by economic and policy pressures, with five major changes observed [2] - The industry is transitioning towards a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [2] - Despite being in a weak performance phase, the sector shows characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividends, making leading liquor companies attractive investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Background - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from economic conditions and policy changes, accelerating its decline [7] - The introduction of the "Strict Economy and Anti-Waste Regulations" has further impacted consumption scenarios, particularly in high-end group purchases [7][9] - The industry is expected to undergo a supply-side adjustment, with companies lowering their growth targets to alleviate channel pressures [13] 2. Supply Side - Leading liquor companies have initiated a "control supply" trend to rebalance supply and demand, which may stabilize prices [18] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have implemented supply control policies to manage inventory levels [19] 3. Demand Side - Companies are innovating to meet changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratio products and low-alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - The establishment of manufacturer platforms and embracing online channels are strategies being adopted to enhance sales and manage distribution [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [55] - The potential for earnings per share (EPS) recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, making it a favorable time to invest [55]

7月28日晚间，药明康德发布2025年半年报，实现营业总收入207.99亿元，同比增长20.64%；实现净利 润85.61亿元，同比增长101.92%。与历史相比，公司营收和净利润均创上市以来同期新高。此外，药明 康德还对全年营收做出预测，预计2025年持续经营业务收入重回双位数增长，增速从10%~15%上调至 13%~17%；预计全年整体收入从415亿元~430亿元上调至425亿元~435亿元。 在业绩利好的刺激下，7月29日药明康德A/H股双双大涨，其中A股上涨7.72%，H股上涨11.25%。 近期，上市公司陆续披露半年报，7月28日晚间披露半年报的还有纳尔股份、艾德生物、海大集团、昊 志机电、湘电股份、惠城环保等，其中纳尔股份、艾德生物、海大集团净利润增幅超20%。饲料龙头海 大集团上半年实现净利润26.39亿元，同比增长24.16%。 受益于下游行业高景气度、公司经营效率提升或资产重组等因素，部分公司今年上半年业绩实现正增 长。据证券时报·数据宝统计，截至7月29日，已披露半年报（含业绩快报）的80家公司中，2025年上半 年净利润同比增长（含扭亏为盈）的有52家。 净利润增速最高的是智明达，公司上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the ChiNext Index experienced a notable increase, indicating a divergence in market sentiment and sector performance [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the midday close on July 29, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3595.19 points, down 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 11212.88 points, down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index at 2384.23 points, up 0.92% [1][2]. - The overall market saw more than 3800 stocks declining, reflecting a broad-based weakness despite some sector gains [2]. Sector Analysis - Leading sectors included CRO (Contract Research Organization), innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, which showed positive performance, while insurance, agriculture, and precious metals sectors weakened [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and communication sectors, with notable net inflows into stocks like Hengsheng Electronics (1.877 billion), Tianfu Communication (1.645 billion), and Yunnan Zhiye (970 million) [5]. - Conversely, significant net outflows were seen in Northern Rare Earth, China Power Construction, and Yili Group, with outflows of 523 million, 452 million, and 370 million respectively [5]. Institutional Insights - The investment director of Qianhai Bourbon Fund, Jin Jun, noted that after breaking the 3600 resistance, the market experienced a pullback, suggesting a strong support level around the 10 and 20-day moving averages. The recommendation is to avoid chasing prices and instead look for buying opportunities in underperforming sectors [7]. - Analyst Deng Tian from Zhongtai Securities highlighted a shift in market sentiment towards technology stocks and suggested focusing on sectors like photovoltaics and military industry that are expected to see fundamental reversals [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and strategy of the TaiKang New Opportunities Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (001910) for Q2 2025, indicating a profit of 66.99 million yuan and a net asset value growth rate of 4.53% [3]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 1.219 yuan, with a three-month return of 7.43%, a six-month return of 7.37%, a one-year return of 2.77%, and a three-year return of -2.46% [4]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.0046, ranking 473 out of 875 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 23.98%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 24.41% [12]. Fund Strategy - The fund manager emphasizes a strategy focused on low valuation and high dividend stocks, prioritizing companies with strong free cash flow and sustainable dividends [3]. - The fund has adjusted its portfolio by reducing exposure to overvalued cyclical and resource stocks while increasing allocation to H-shares in the financial, utilities, and automotive sectors [3]. - The fund aims to maintain resilience during challenging market conditions by holding quality companies with cash flow advantages and stable growth potential [3]. Fund Composition - As of June 30, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 82.03%, compared to the industry average of 80.32% [15]. - The fund's top holdings include major banks and companies such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Mobile [20]. - The fund's total size as of the end of Q2 2025 was 1.546 billion yuan [17].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the light industry sector, particularly home furnishing companies such as 欧派家居 (Oppein), 奥普科技 (Aupu), and 富森美 (Fusenmei) [1][5][6] - Discussion on the financial sector and its performance [2] - Insights into the packaging industry, including companies like 裕同科技 (Yutong), 奥瑞金 (Aoruijin), and 永新股份 (Yongxin) [10] - Analysis of the paper industry, highlighting companies such as 太阳纸业 (Sun Paper) and 环望科技 (Huanwang) [13] - New consumption sector with companies like 城光股份 (Chengguang), 恒瑞护理 (Hengrui), and 赵英集团 (Zhaoying) [9] Core Points and Arguments - The market sentiment towards traditional industries, especially real estate, is pessimistic, but there are opportunities for rebound due to low valuations and high dividends [1][3][4] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost demand, particularly benefiting leading home furnishing companies as government subsidies are directed towards them [4] - High dividend stocks recommended include: - 欧派家居: Stable dividends with a yield close to 5% [5] - 奥普科技: Leading in the bathroom appliance sector with a dividend yield of approximately 7.5% [6] - 富森美: Regional retail operator with a high dividend yield of about 8.5% [6] - Companies with expected marginal improvements in low valuation include: - 顾家家居: Stable order growth and operational optimization [7] - 索菲亚: Low historical valuation with potential order improvement post-subsidy [7] - 慕思股份: Stable order performance with organizational restructuring [7] - The financial sector shows solid fundamentals but lacks significant marginal improvement; low price-to-book ratios indicate potential for recovery [2] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The packaging industry is highlighted for its potential with companies like 裕同科技, which has a competitive edge in customer expansion and a stable dividend policy [10] - The paper industry is expected to face short-term price pressure but may stabilize and improve due to seasonal demand for cultural paper [13] - New consumption companies are showing resilience, with 恒瑞护理 performing well in personal care despite cautious market expectations [9] - The overall sentiment suggests that while some sectors are currently undervalued, they may see a rebound as market conditions improve and government policies take effect [4][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is occurring, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene price is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase slightly in June. The downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices undergo more maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices due to seasonal factors. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in June. The near - term export orders are acceptable. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and production starts [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2520 to 2437, the South China spot price decreased from 2480 to 2448. The import profit decreased from 125 to 58, and the main contract basis decreased from 90 to 25. The MTO profit on the futures market decreased from - 1208 to - 1219 [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The daily changes on July 7 compared to the previous period were 0 for power coal futures, - 18 for Jiangsu spot, - 17 for South China spot, - 10 for Lunan converted to futures price, 0 for Southwest converted to futures price, 0 for Hebei converted to futures price, - 25 for Northwest converted to futures price, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for main contract basis, and 0 for MTO profit on the futures market [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price fluctuated between 7150 - 7200 and then dropped to 7175 on July 7. The two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71, and the warehouse receipts remained at 5831 on July 4 and 7 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were 0 for Northeast Asian ethylene, - 25 for North China LL, - 50 for East China LL, - 25 for East China LD, 0 for East China HD, 0 for LL in US dollars, 0 for LL in US Gulf, 0 for import profit, - 35 for the main futures contract, 30 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and 0 for warehouse receipts [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6630 to 6420, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7060 to 7030, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71. The warehouse receipts decreased from 7404 to 7232 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 130 for Shandong propylene, 0 for Northeast Asian propylene, - 40 for East China PP, - 30 for North China PP, - 50 for Shandong powder, - 10 for East China copolymer, 0 for PP in US dollars, 0 for PP in US Gulf, 0 for export profit, - 21 for the main futures contract, 0 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and - 60 for warehouse receipts [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2250, the Shandong caustic soda price increased from 802 to 817. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China fluctuated between 4770 - 4850 and then dropped to 4830 on July 7. The import price in US dollars (CFR China) remained at 700, and the export profit remained at 465 from July 3 - 7 [11][12]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 50 for Northwest calcium carbide, 15 for Shandong caustic soda, - 20 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, 0 for ethylene - based PVC in East China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in South China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in the North, 0 for import price in US dollars (CFR China), 0 for export profit, 0 for Northwest comprehensive profit, 0 for North China comprehensive profit, and 0 for the basis (high - end delivery product) [12].