发电量与工业增加值增速背离

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2012-2016年发电量与工业增加值增速背离与当前有何异同?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-15 06:15
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The divergence between domestic power generation and industrial added value growth since 2025 is primarily due to a significant slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry, particularly in the mid-to-lower reaches of the equipment manufacturing and downstream consumer goods sectors [2][40] - The current power generation growth slowdown is linked to reduced energy consumption and low operating rates in certain sub-sectors, while industrial added value continues to grow rapidly, supported by the relative high prosperity of large enterprises [2][3] - Historical comparisons indicate that the divergence between power generation and industrial added value growth has occurred multiple times in the past, with the need for capacity clearance and profit improvement to narrow the gap [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Generation and Industrial Added Value Divergence - Since 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth of domestic power generation is +0.8%, compared to +5.2% in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant decline in growth [27] - The divergence has been observed in four distinct periods over the past 20 years, with the most recent being influenced by external shocks such as financial crises and pandemics [28][30] Section 2: Factors Influencing Power Generation and Industrial Added Value - The slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry is a major factor contributing to the divergence, with a year-on-year growth of only +2.4% in the first half of 2025 [36][55] - The contribution rate of electricity consumption growth from the secondary industry has significantly decreased, indicating its role as a drag on overall electricity consumption growth [36] Section 3: Coal Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic coal supply-demand balance has been relatively loose since 2025, with power coal prices rebounding due to supply reductions from safety and environmental checks, as well as increased demand from high temperatures [4][13] - The report anticipates that the target price for power coal at ports may reach 700-750 RMB/ton by the end of the year, depending on the effectiveness of policy measures [4] Section 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The report draws parallels between the current situation and the period from 2012 to 2016, suggesting that a similar recovery in industrial profits and capacity utilization may be necessary to improve the current divergence [3][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sub-sectors within the secondary industry, particularly those with low energy consumption and operating rates, as they significantly impact overall electricity demand [47][52]
深度 | 发电量为什么和工业增加值“脱节”?——中观看实体之五【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-06-17 11:55
今年以来,发电量增速持续低于工业增加值增速,基本可以排除短期波动的可能。那么,背后的原因是什么? 趋势还会持续吗? 指标的口径非常关键。 第一个口径差异 来自于,我们所使用的发电量是指规模以上工业发电企业的发电量, 不是全口径的发电量,那么,规模以下工业发电企业的发电量大幅增加可能会导致发电量增速下降。但 实际 上规模以下小工业发电企业的发电量在全部用电量中的占比仍不到 8% ,因此影响有限 。 第二个口径差异 来 自于,发电量数据虽然不是全口径的,但是发电企业生产的电力资源在使用上是不作区分的,而与之相对比的 增加值增速却是规模以上的工业增加值增速。 一方面, 规上工业企业数量增速明显放缓,但是规上工业增加 值增速上行,或说明 大企业的景气尚佳 ,而当前已不满足营收标准的企业对去年的工增增速带来拖累,年初 大小型企业制造业 PMI 表现分化也为景气分化提供了一定支撑。 另一方面, 部 分用电量增速下降的行业 , 例如公共服务、批发零售和住宿餐饮等非工业行业, 并不包含在工业增加值的范畴之内 。 哪些工业行业的背离表现得更明显呢? 电气机械、化工、非金属矿和通用设备等 行业中用电量和工增增速 的背离非常显著。 ...