Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The divergence between domestic power generation and industrial added value growth since 2025 is primarily due to a significant slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry, particularly in the mid-to-lower reaches of the equipment manufacturing and downstream consumer goods sectors [2][40] - The current power generation growth slowdown is linked to reduced energy consumption and low operating rates in certain sub-sectors, while industrial added value continues to grow rapidly, supported by the relative high prosperity of large enterprises [2][3] - Historical comparisons indicate that the divergence between power generation and industrial added value growth has occurred multiple times in the past, with the need for capacity clearance and profit improvement to narrow the gap [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Generation and Industrial Added Value Divergence - Since 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth of domestic power generation is +0.8%, compared to +5.2% in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant decline in growth [27] - The divergence has been observed in four distinct periods over the past 20 years, with the most recent being influenced by external shocks such as financial crises and pandemics [28][30] Section 2: Factors Influencing Power Generation and Industrial Added Value - The slowdown in electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry is a major factor contributing to the divergence, with a year-on-year growth of only +2.4% in the first half of 2025 [36][55] - The contribution rate of electricity consumption growth from the secondary industry has significantly decreased, indicating its role as a drag on overall electricity consumption growth [36] Section 3: Coal Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic coal supply-demand balance has been relatively loose since 2025, with power coal prices rebounding due to supply reductions from safety and environmental checks, as well as increased demand from high temperatures [4][13] - The report anticipates that the target price for power coal at ports may reach 700-750 RMB/ton by the end of the year, depending on the effectiveness of policy measures [4] Section 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The report draws parallels between the current situation and the period from 2012 to 2016, suggesting that a similar recovery in industrial profits and capacity utilization may be necessary to improve the current divergence [3][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sub-sectors within the secondary industry, particularly those with low energy consumption and operating rates, as they significantly impact overall electricity demand [47][52]

Core Viewpoint - The growth rate of electricity generation has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of industrial added value this year, indicating a potential structural issue rather than short-term fluctuations [1][3][21] Group 1: Reasons for Divergence - The first discrepancy in metrics arises from the definition of electricity generation, which refers to the output of large-scale industrial power generation enterprises, excluding smaller enterprises that contribute less than 8% to total electricity consumption [4][8] - The second discrepancy is that while electricity generation data is not comprehensive, it aligns with electricity consumption data, which does not differentiate between large and small enterprises, whereas the industrial added value growth rate is based solely on large enterprises [8][12] - The slowdown in the number of large industrial enterprises and the increase in industrial added value suggest that larger companies are performing well, while smaller companies are dragging down overall growth [8][9] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Significant divergence in electricity consumption and industrial added value growth is observed in industries such as electrical machinery, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and general equipment, which are currently facing low capacity utilization rates [14][15][17] - The low capacity utilization indicates potential overcapacity, leading to a slowdown in electricity consumption growth, while efficient enterprises are likely to thrive by adopting advanced technologies and management practices [15][19] - Data from listed companies show that larger firms in the aforementioned industries are performing better than smaller firms, highlighting a trend of market-driven capacity elimination [19][21] Group 3: Future Outlook - The divergence between electricity generation growth and industrial added value growth is expected to persist, primarily due to weak demand and overcapacity in the industry, reminiscent of the supply-side structural reform period in 2015 [21]