证券研究报告 固收 第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成 份券机会 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成份券机会 8 月 20 日第二批 14 只科创债 ETF 集中上报，首批科创债从申报到上市用 时 1 个月，第二批科创债 ETF 也有望较快落地。科创债 ETF 上市以来规模 快速增长、流动性表现较好，已成为信用债 ETF 的第二大品种。受股市走 强、债市偏弱影响，科创债 ETF 净值经历两轮调整。考虑到政策支持+科创 债供给增长+科创债 ETF 质押回购业务落地，科创债 ETF 未来发展可期。 若第二批科创债 ETF 落地，科创债指数成份券流动性有望进一步提升，收 益率仍有下行空间，但短期幅度或有限，且面临股市、政策、重要事件等扰 动较多，建议关注 1-3 年中高等级科创债指数成份券的调整后增配机会。 市场回顾：股强债弱持续，信用债收益率全面上行 SAC No. S0570523080005 SFC No. BTF199 华泰研究 朱沁宜 研究员 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 S ...

周末要闻 | 下周策略 | 下周新股 01 周末要闻 ✨ 国务院常务会议审议通过《"三北"工程总体规划》； 证监会修改证券公司分类监管规定，新规自8月22日起实施； 工信部：有序引导智能算力基础设施适度超前、动态平衡； 《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布； 中国光伏行业协会：坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，从同质化低效能竞争转向高质量高水平竞争； 央行：8月25日将开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期； 沪指续创十年新高！"市值/GDP"指标仍在历史中枢； 加拿大宣布取消多项针对美国商品的报复性关税； 今年我国智能算力规模增长将超40%； 突破3100℃，中国空间站"炼丹炉"刷新世界纪录； 一体化算网建设再提速，七城算力中心接入国家超算互联网； 电子行业A股市值登顶，超过银行； 黄金产业链多家上市公司上半年业绩高增； 苹果据悉探索利用谷歌Gemini为新版Siri赋能。 02 下周策略 ✨ 核心问题 3800点之后，A股还能冲多高？ 多家网约车平台宣布调低抽成比例，订单抽成上限不超27%； 今年前7个月我国机械工业保持增长态势； 全球首个机器人消费节总销售额突破3.3亿元； 消费电子 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 8 . 1 8 - 8 . 2 4 周度研究成果 申 万 宏 源 策 略 研 究 团 队 目录 一周回顾 1、【大势研判】 慢下来，会更远、更高、更好——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望（20250818-20250823） 2、【行业比较】 A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250816-20250822） 专题研究 1、 居民存款搬家仍处于起步期 ——申万宏源策略：五问五答看懂居民存款搬家 2、 你追我赶，共迎牛市 ——近期A股港股背离原因分析，关注负面预期Price in后港股的后续布局机会 电话会议 慢下来，会更远、更高、更好——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(20250818- 一周回顾 1 20250823) 一周回顾 2025.8.23 一、全面牛市还需要积极因素的进一步累积： 我们认为，历来都没有脱离基本面的牛市，全面牛市需要基本面基础更坚实。全面牛市的结构主线，完全可能更丰富。所 以，似乎不必把所有对牛市的期待，都映射在眼前的景气线索上。把握节奏，我们可能等到更多选项。股市在经济循环中的重要性提 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 于A股加速上涨之际，思考牛市的纵深，以及牛市之于经济的意义… 一、全面牛市还需要积极因素的进一步累积：2026年基本面改善预期，供给出清提供安全垫，但也要需求改善提供向上弹性。全面牛市的结构主 线，不可能仅限于中国企业更深度融入海外主导的产业链。中国体系出海，中国制造基于竞争优势，获得与之相匹配的产业话语权和盈利能力， 可能是更贴近牛市叙事的结构主线。所以，似乎不必把所有对牛市的期待，都映射在眼前的景气线索上。 股市在经济循环中的重要性提升，绝非"想涨"或者"不想涨"这么简单。居民资产向权益市场迁移，如果走基于赚钱效应正循环的老路，那只能是 少数人的狂欢。公司治理、股东回报改善，托举A股走出熊市，这个改革红利就停留在牛熊之界了吗？其实由改革红利支撑的居民增配权益，才 能行稳致远。如何利用股市实现资源优化配置？A股的做多力量对于中国经济转型来说，也是一种稀缺资源。"为了孕育个别成功企业，便奖励 所有企业"的粗放资源配置方式，在其他领域已不提倡，A股也有必要从这种模式中走出来。这可能是"反内卷"思想在A股的一种映射。所以，慢 ...

记者 王惠 1，今年前7个月山东经济运行总体平稳 主要经济指标好于全国 山东省统计局8月21日发布消息：今年1月—7月，山东主要经济指标好于全国，经济运行总体平稳。 工业生产保持较快增长。1月—7月，山东规模以上工业增加值增长7.8%，比上半年提高0.1个百分点。 41个行业中有35个实现增长，增长面为85.4%。其中，化工、农副食品、电气机械等行业保持较快增 长，1月—7月增加值分别增长14.0%、11.6%、12.1%，上拉全省工业增速2.8个百分点。 提示：顶尖人才是引领创新发展的核心力量。此次出台的《若干措施》真金白银的支持和全方位的服务 集聚人才，对青岛自贸片区的发展具有战略性引领作用或能实现强链、补链效果，为片区产业升级和战 略布局提供"最强大脑"支撑。 3，今年上半年山东锂离子电池产量同比增长35.7% 8月21日，由山东省工业和信息化厅主办的山东省新能源电池产业链融链固链对接活动在枣庄举办。记 者从会上了解到，今年上半年，山东锂离子电池产量同比增长35.7%，新能源电池产业正跨入发展加速 期。 此外，本次活动发布了《山东省新能源电池企业供需清单》和《山东省新能源电池领域优秀产品推介手 册》，公 ...

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Wind数据显示，根据上市公司权益分配方案梳理统计，14只A股今日股权登记。其中，14股拟派息。 分红派息方面，14只个股分红派息的股权登记日为8月21日。双汇发展、东方电气、华之杰分红力度最 大，每10股分别派息6.50元、4.03元、4.00元。 此外，还有23股抛出分红派息预案，牧原股份、横店东磁、喜临门拟分红力度最大，每10股拟分别派息 9.32元、3.8元、2.8元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the logic of the Chinese market is undergoing a fundamental change, driven by new technology trends and improved economic visibility [3] - The market is transitioning from being policy-driven to being fundamentally driven, with a focus on high-quality development and industrial upgrades [7] - A sustainable "slow bull" market is anticipated, supported by policy backing, liquidity expectations, and continuous innovation in industries [8] Group 2 - The current bull market atmosphere is expected to dominate the market in the short term, with conditions for a bull market becoming more favorable by mid-2026 [5] - The ample liquidity in the market is a major support for the rise of A-share indices this year, with margin financing and foreign capital inflows contributing to market activity [10]

Group 1 - The Nikkei average index reached a new high of 43,714 points on August 18, up 336 points (0.77%) from the previous weekend, marking two consecutive days of record highs [2] - The market's price-to-book ratio (PBR) is approaching a high of 1.6 times for 2024, indicating a sustained bullish sentiment [2] - Investors are shifting towards relatively undervalued stocks due to the lack of clear buying opportunities [2] Group 2 - Despite expectations of market pressure after the previous week's highs, the market showed unexpected strength, with the Nikkei index briefly reaching 43,835 points [4] - The stocks driving the recent increase differ from previous trends, with retail stocks like J. FRONT RETAILING and Mitsukoshi Isetan, as well as automotive stocks like Suzuki, receiving strong buying support [4] - Bank stocks, which had previously surged due to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, have seen significant pullbacks [4] Group 3 - The U.S. economy has not shown significant slowdown, and U.S. stock indices continue to reach new highs, which may influence Japanese market sentiment [5] - The average PBR of Nikkei index constituents is currently at 1.58 times, exceeding the peaks of 1.57 times observed in March and July 2024 [5] - There is a growing belief in the market that a PBR exceeding 1.6 times can be justified, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5] Group 4 - Following the conclusion of Japan-U.S. tariff negotiations in late July, the upward trend in the Japanese stock market has strengthened [7] - Investors who previously lacked sufficient positions are now seeking relatively undervalued stocks, particularly during the traditionally low trading period of the Obon festival [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The industrial production growth is differentiated, with the electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors leading, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] - High-end equipment manufacturing, such as shipbuilding and mobile communication base stations, has seen a surge in output, while high-tech manufacturing is accelerating, particularly in integrated circuits [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: Out of 41 industrial categories, 35 reported growth with an overall growth rate of 8%, slightly lower than June's figures. Equipment manufacturing grew at 8.4%, consistently outperforming overall industrial growth for 24 months [2] - **Fixed Asset Investment**: The overall growth rate of fixed asset investment has slowed to 1.6%, with real estate being a major drag. Excluding real estate, the growth rate is 5.3%. Manufacturing investment remains relatively stable at 6.2% [3][4] - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market is facing a negative cycle of weak sales, reduced construction starts, and investment contraction. From January to July, real estate investment fell by 12%, with a monthly decline of 17% in July [5] - **Consumer Retail Trends**: The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a significant slowdown. However, policies promoting the replacement of old appliances have positively impacted retail sales in categories like home appliances [6] - **Service Consumption**: Service consumption grew by 5.2% from January to July, with a notable increase in travel and leisure services during the summer [7] Additional Important Insights - **Economic Forecast**: The economic growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be significantly lower than the second quarter, with real estate continuing to be a major drag on the economy. However, the target of 5% annual growth remains achievable [8] - **US Economic Data**: Recent US economic data, including CPI and PPI, showed mixed results. The PPI exceeded expectations, leading to market volatility, while the core CPI remains resilient [9][10] - **Inflation Dynamics**: Current inflation in the US appears manageable, with service prices rebounding, particularly in air travel and medical services. However, the prices of tariff-sensitive goods have shown mixed trends [10][11][12] - **Retail Performance in the US**: US retail data for July showed a solid performance with a 0.5% month-on-month increase, driven by promotional activities in department stores, although service-related sectors remain weak [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and challenges of various industries, particularly in the context of economic data and trends.