广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2025 年 12 月制造业 PMI 环比上行 0.9 个点至 50.1 ；过去 10年 （ 2015-2024 年） 12 月环比均值为下降 0.3 个点， 12 月 PMI 环比上行显著 超季节性趋势。在前期报告《 PMI 年末超季节性反弹的可能原因》中，我们基于宏观角度做过初步分析。从中观视角进一步来看，景气面并未扩大；但高技术制 造业景气中枢进一步上移，是制造业 PMI 上行的主要带动力量。 第二， 绝对景气度看，医药、汽车、纺服、计算机通信电子景气值和分位值水平领先。我们理解一则随着 2026 年"两新"政策[2] 公布，数码和智能产品购新补 贴、汽车以旧换新和报废更新政策明朗，叠加元旦假期临近，对相关行业生产和提前备货需求构成支撑；二则" AI+ "产业趋势带动之下，计算机通信电子行业 PMI 已连续 5 个月位于 52 以上；三则部分行业出口景气，纺服行业出口订单指数回升至 60 以上，医药行业出口订单回升至 55 以上。 第三， 边际变化看，景气环比改善的行业主要包括医药、纺服、电气机械、 ...

支撑三：前期化债提速对投资的挤出效应或继续缓解，12月建筑业PMI明显回升。12月，建筑业PMI回升3.2个百分点至52.8%，特殊再融资债超发问题缓 解、增量政策落地等影响下，化债对投资的挤出效应边际弱化；房屋建筑活动、土木工程建筑业活动较前月上行；建筑业业务活动预期指数也保持在 57.4%的高位。 支撑四：出口仍保持韧性、对PMI形成拉动。12月内需订单指数上行1.6个百分点至51.1%。同时，新出口订单指数延续改善态势，12月上行1.4个百分点至 49%；高频指标方面，12月港口外贸货运量同比回升0.6个百分点至12%，保持较高水平；领先指标方面，加工贸易进口领先出口1个月，11月加工贸易进 口也明显回升，均指向外需韧性。 来源：赵伟宏观探索 事件：12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%，非制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.5%。 核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动12月PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 12月高频指标转弱下，制造业PMI却明显回升。12月以来，高炉开工、PTA开工、货运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业PMI较前月回升0.9个百分 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 事件： 12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%，非制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.5%。 核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动12月PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 12月高频指标转弱下，制造业PMI却明显回升。 12月以来，高炉开工、PTA开工、货运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业PMI较前月回升0.9个百分点至 50.1%，时隔9个月再次站上荣枯线。其中生产、新订单指数分别较11月回升1.7、1.6个百分点。 支撑一：新动能相关领域PMI明显改善，但缺乏相关高频指标，可持续性需要继续观察。 从行业来看，黑色压延、化学纤维、化学原料等传统行业12月PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA开工等回落表现一致。但缺乏开工指标跟踪的电气机械、医药等新兴行业PMI却有回升。大类行业中，高技术、装备制造业PMI均有 改善，分别上行2.4、0.6个百分点至52.5%、50.4%。 支撑二：高频指标未跟踪到的部分消费行业PMI改善，尤其是受需求透支风险影响较小的领域。 12月汽车高频产销 ...

核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动12月PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 事件： 12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%，非制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.5%。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 12月高频指标转弱下，制造业PMI却明显回升。 12月以来，高炉开工、PTA开工、货运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业PMI较前月回升0.9个百分点至 50.1%，时隔9个月再次站上荣枯线。其中生产、新订单指数分别较11月回升1.7、1.6个百分点。 支撑一：新动能相关领域PMI明显改善，但缺乏相关高频指标，可持续性需要继续观察。 从行业来看，黑色压延、化学纤维、化学原料等传统行业12月PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA开工等回落表现一致。但缺乏开工指标跟踪的电气机械、医药等新兴行业PMI却有回升。大类行业中，高技术、装备制造业PMI均有 改善，分别上行2.4、0.6个百分点至52.5%、50.4%。 支撑二：高频指标未跟踪到的部分消费行业PMI改善，尤其是受需求透支风险影响较小的领域。 12月汽车高频产销 ...

宏 观 研 究 PMI 数据 2025 年 12 月 31 日 12 月 PMI 回升的四大支撑 ——中采 PMI 点评（25.12） 事件：12 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 12 月 PMI 指数，制造业 PMI 为 50.1%、前值 49.2%； 非制造业 PMI 为 50.2%、前值 49.5%。 ⚫ 核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动 12 月 PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 12 月高频指标转弱下，制造业 PMI 却明显回升。12 月以来，高炉开工、PTA 开工、货 运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业 PMI 较前月回升 0.9 个百分点至 50.1%，时隔 9 个 月再次站上荣枯线。其中生产、新订单指数分别较 11 月回升 1.7、1.6 个百分点。 支撑一：新动能相关领域 PMI 明显改善，但缺乏相关高频指标，可持续性需要继续观察。 从行业来看，黑色压延、化学纤维、化学原料等传统行业 12 月 PMI 均有回落，与高炉、 PTA 开工等回落表现一致。但缺乏开工指标跟踪的电气机械、医药等新兴行业 PMI 却有 回升，分别较前月上行 1.3、0.9 个百分点至 47.1%、58.9%。大 ...

文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 铁伟奥 20 25年1 2月PMI指数时隔8个月再度上涨至扩张区间，新订单指数自6月 以 来 再 度 站 上 荣 枯 线 上 。 主 要 有 三 点 原 因 ， 政 策 发 力 促 进 投 资 止 跌 回 稳、 外需上升促进出口订单上行明显，以及 202 6年春节较晚，对实物工 作量的扰动明显弱于其他春节较早的年份。 国家统计局12月31日发布数 据显示 ， 2 025年12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。建筑业商务活动 指数为52.8%（前值49.6%）；服务业商务活动指数为49.7%（前值49.5%）。 本月PMI指数时隔8个月再度上涨至扩张区间，新订单指数自6月以来再度站上荣枯线上。主要有三点原因，一是政策发力促进投资止跌回稳，12月11日中 央经济工作会议提到"推动投资止跌回稳，激发民间投资活力"，为后续经济工作做出部署；12月31日，国家发改委召开新闻发布会，表示"近日发改委组 织下达2026年提前批"两重"建设项目清单和中央预算内投资计划，共计约2950亿元。"政策已经率先 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The US Q3 2025 GDP growth rate is 4.3%, significantly above market expectations, with consumer resilience and AI investments contributing one-third of this year's growth [10] - Japan has passed a large-scale fiscal budget plan for 2026, leading to a rapid increase in Japanese bond yields to 2.11%, which has exerted some pressure on the US dollar index due to yen appreciation [10] - The domestic industrial profit decline has widened in November, with a slight month-on-month increase in profit margins after adjusting for high base effects, but still weaker than seasonal trends [10] Group 2: Market Strategy - The bond market experienced narrow fluctuations from December 22 to 26, with a steepening curve; liquidity easing has improved short-term performance, while long-term remains volatile due to concerns about the post-year-end market [11] - The A-share market has seen a continuous rebound due to the resolution of structural differentiation and positive signals from the Central Economic Work Conference, alongside a strengthening yuan [11] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of benefiting from liquidity while facing weak fundamentals, with the improvement of the price level in 2026 being crucial [11] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The alcohol beverage and black metallurgy industries are dragging down overall profit growth, while the recovery in export growth is benefiting sectors like computer communications, automotive, electrical machinery, and specialized equipment [10] - The technology growth sector is expected to outperform as the crowding effect eases, although further recovery in PPI and profits is still awaited [11] - The oil market is under pressure due to weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation [12]

李迅雷 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 文章原载于"李迅雷金融与投资"微信公众号：lixunlei0722 核心观点 作为"十五五"规划的第一年，2026年GDP增速目标预计将继续定在5%左右。宏观政策相机抉择，促消费和扩投资协同推进，确保"十五五"实现良好开 局，预计全年实际GDP同比增长5%左右。 出口继续维持强韧性。2025年中国出口表现强于预期，支撑因素包括转口贸易、中国企业出海带动资本品出口扩张、美国对等关税对全球贸易的影响滞后 体现等。展望2026年，我们认为中美关税有望维持稳定，双方经贸关系迎来阶段性缓和。尽管全球货物贸易增速放缓，但依托于成本优势，中国出口订单 份额预计将进一步提高。定量测算显示，以美元计价的中国出口，2026年将同比增长3.4%，继续维持强韧性。 2026年的财政支出结构优化将为制造业投资提供支撑。2025年三季度开始，中国制造业投资转弱，从子行业数据看，压制近期制造业投资的有"供强需 弱"和"反内卷"预期，以及关税和贸易摩擦的冲击。展望2026年，我们认为制造业投资有支撑，类似于2025年三、四季度的低迷不可持续：一是出口强韧 性，推动出口高依赖行业的预期修复；二是2026年先进制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies focusing on promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Export Performance - China's export performance in 2025 was better than expected, with nominal exports increasing by 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB in the first 11 months. After adjusting for price factors, actual export growth was 7.9% in USD and 9.0% in RMB [4][5] - The strong external demand contributed significantly to China's economic growth, with net exports boosting GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 29.0% of the cumulative GDP growth [4] - The expected growth rate for China's exports in 2026 is projected at 3.4% in USD terms, supported by stable US-China tariffs and China's cost advantages [9][28][30] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly in 2026, from around 1% growth in 2025 to approximately 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [31][46] - The decline in manufacturing investment in 2025 was attributed to "strong supply and weak demand" and trade friction, but the outlook for 2026 suggests a recovery due to improved export expectations and continued policy support [36][46] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected decline in commodity housing sales area of about 5% and a narrowing of the decline in real estate investment to around -11% [55][58] - The real estate sector's recovery will depend on improved consumer confidence and the successful resolution of credit risks among property developers [56][57] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [64] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a funding scale at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [66][68] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 8% growth in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [64]

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the achievements of Dongguan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, showcasing its commitment to high-quality development amidst challenges, and its role as a significant player in the manufacturing sector of Guangdong and China [1][3]. Economic Performance - Dongguan's economic total surpassed 1.2 trillion yuan, with industrial added value ranking second in the province and significant growth in import and export, reaching over 1.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The city has established a modern industrial system characterized by "8+8+4" sectors, with industrial investment nearly doubling over five years and over 8,500 small enterprises upgraded to larger scales [3][4]. Technological Innovation - Dongguan has shifted from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth, significantly increasing R&D spending and the number of high-tech enterprises, with R&D expenditure reaching 4.01% of GDP [7][8]. - The city has made substantial investments in high-tech manufacturing, totaling 286.3 billion yuan, ranking second in the province, with a 76% increase this year [8]. Infrastructure and Urban Development - Dongguan has enhanced its infrastructure, integrating into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with successful projects like the Dongguan-Humen Intercity Railway and the Hong Kong International Airport Dongguan Air Cargo Center [12][13]. - The city has also focused on urban-rural integration, with all 28 towns ranked among the top 300 in the country, and significant improvements in living standards and environmental quality [16][19]. Social Welfare and Governance - Over 200 billion yuan has been invested in social welfare, with a focus on education and healthcare, resulting in improved public services and living conditions [19]. - Dongguan has achieved notable reductions in safety incidents and crime rates, enhancing its reputation for safety and security [19]. Conclusion - The press conference served as a declaration of Dongguan's achievements and future direction, emphasizing its ability to navigate challenges and pursue high-quality development in the manufacturing sector [21].