毫不意外地，老铺黄金上半年取得了强劲增长。7月27日晚，老铺黄金发布正面盈利预告显示，2025年 上半年，公司预计收入、净利润同比增幅皆在240%以上。然而，与业绩爆发式增长呈反比的是，老铺 黄金近期股价遭遇冷场，截至7月29日，其股价收报749港元/股，涨2.18%，近20天老铺黄金股价跌幅为 30.8%。 2025年以来，国际金价一路高歌猛进，以"一口价"模式闻名的老铺黄金门店客流激增、大排长龙，成为 整体低迷的黄金消费市场中罕见的亮色。然而随着近期金价高位回落，这匹曾经逆势冲刺的黑马，正面 临市场环境转向带来的多重挑战。 业绩股价两重天 老铺黄金发布了上半年预喜成绩单。根据业绩预告，该公司上半年预计实现销售业绩138亿元至143亿 元，同比预增240%至252%；预计实现收入120亿元至125亿元，同比预增240%至252%；预计实现净利 润22.3亿元至22.8亿元，同比预计增长279%至288%。 近两年时间，在黄金价格持续走高的背景下，不少高净值人群买金热情高涨，凭借"一口价"的定价方 式，老铺黄金业绩获得了快速发展。2024年其收入为85.06亿元，同比增长167.5%；净利润为14.73亿 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Lao Pu Gold has reported a significant increase in sales and adjusted net profit for the first half of the year, despite a general decline in gold jewelry consumption in China due to high gold prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Lao Pu Gold's sales for the first half of the year are expected to be between 138 billion to 143 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 240% to 252% [3]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be between 23 billion to 23.6 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 282% to 292% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's revenue is anticipated to be around 120 billion to 125 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 241% to 255% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall gold jewelry consumption in China has decreased by 26% in the first half of the year, with total gold consumption down by 3.54% [3]. - Despite the decline in gold jewelry sales, demand for gold bars and coins has increased by 23.69% [3]. - The high gold prices have led to a shift in consumer preference towards lightweight, high-design, and high-value jewelry products [3][4]. Group 3: Brand and Product Strategy - Lao Pu Gold has successfully leveraged its brand influence and market advantages, resulting in substantial revenue growth across both online and offline channels [4]. - The company employs a "one-price" model, maintaining a gross margin above 40% from 2020 to 2023, which has contributed to its profitability [11]. - The brand's focus on traditional craftsmanship and modern design aligns with the rising trend of national cultural pride, appealing particularly to younger consumers [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laopu Gold, reported a significant expected net profit increase of approximately 279% to 288% for the first half of the year, yet its stock price fell by 4.12%, raising concerns about market outlook divergence among institutions [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Laopu Gold's projected sales revenue for the first half of the year is estimated to be between 138 billion to 143 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 240% to 252% [2]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be around 23 billion to 23.6 billion RMB, marking a growth of about 282% to 292% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company's revenue is anticipated to be between 120 billion to 125 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 241% to 255% [2]. Stock Performance - Following a peak increase of 330.18% until July 8, the stock price has since declined over 33% from its historical high of 1108 HKD [3]. - The stock has experienced a continuous drop for nine trading days, closing at 733 HKD with a total market capitalization of 126.6 billion HKD [2][3]. Market Sentiment and Institutional Divergence - Analysts suggest that the stock price decline may be attributed to the release of locked shares and weakened market confidence, particularly after a significant share unlock event at the end of June [3][4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) exceeds 82 times, indicating that the stock price may have already priced in future earnings expectations, leading to potential valuation correction risks [4]. Analyst Opinions - UBS expressed concerns that the earnings expectations for 2025, ranging from 40 billion to 60 billion RMB, may be overly optimistic, given the potential risks from gold price fluctuations and shareholder profit-taking [4]. - Citigroup maintains a positive outlook, asserting that Laopu Gold's mid-term performance meets or exceeds market expectations, with a target price of 1084 HKD [5]. - Nomura upgraded its target price from 1023 HKD to 1148 HKD, citing expected earnings growth and improved operational efficiency [5].

Core Viewpoint - Laopu Gold (06181.HK) has released a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of approximately 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 282% to 292%, setting a new historical record for the company [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates sales revenue (including tax) of approximately 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 240% to 252% [3]. - The expected revenue is around 12 billion to 12.5 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 241% to 255% compared to the previous year [3]. - The adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) is projected to be about 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion RMB, marking an increase of 282% to 292% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit is estimated to be around 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion RMB, which is a growth of 279% to 288% compared to the same period last year [3]. Stock Performance - Laopu Gold's stock price has seen a significant increase of 373% from the beginning of the year until early July, although it has recently experienced a decline of over 30% from its peak of 1,108 HKD [1][5]. - As of July 25, the stock closed at 764.5 HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 219.5% [5]. Market Dynamics - The company's growth is attributed to its expanding brand influence and market advantages, leading to substantial revenue growth from both online and offline stores [3]. - The stock price decline may be linked to the release of locked shares and reduced market confidence, as a large number of shares held by 12 shareholders, including the founder, were unlocked at the end of June [9]. Competitive Positioning - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end brand, with approximately 40% of its products priced between 10,000 to 250,000 RMB, and over a quarter of its revenue coming from products priced above 50,000 RMB [10]. - The company ranks first in average revenue per store and sales efficiency among all well-known jewelry brands in mainland China, surpassing international luxury brands [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts have differing views on Laopu Gold's future performance, with some expressing concerns about high market expectations for net profit in 2025 amid potential fluctuations in gold prices [17]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic, predicting accelerated growth in the second half of the year due to rising gold prices and strong demand, adjusting revenue forecasts upward by 13% to 18% for 2025 to 2027 [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a sluggish domestic gold jewelry consumption in the first half of the year, Lao Pu Gold is experiencing significant growth, with projected sales performance for the first half of 2025 expected to increase by 240% to 252% year-on-year [1] - Lao Pu Gold anticipates achieving sales revenue (including tax) of approximately RMB 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion and a net profit of about RMB 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 279% to 288% [1] - The increase in revenue and net profit is attributed to the expanding brand influence, resulting in substantial growth in both online and offline store revenues, as well as continuous product optimization and innovation [1] Group 2 - Lao Pu Gold's stock price has surged from an initial public offering price of HKD 40.5 per share to HKD 1,100 per share, marking an increase of over 20 times, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the Hong Kong market [3] - However, since July 9, 2025, the stock price has been on a downward trend, dropping nearly 4% to HKD 735 [3] - UBS has reported that investor expectations for Lao Pu Gold's 2025 earnings range from RMB 4 billion to 6 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 170% to 300%, but these expectations may be overly optimistic due to potential risks such as gold price fluctuations and varying financial performance across stores [3] Group 3 - The ancient method gold market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Chow Tai Fook, Caibai, Chow Sang Sang, and Luk Fook also entering the same product category [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lao Pu Gold, is planning to issue new shares to raise approximately HKD 26.98 billion, aiming to enhance its financial strength and market competitiveness amidst increasing competition in the ancient gold market [1][4]. Group 1: Share Issuance Details - Lao Pu Gold announced the issuance of 431,000 new H-shares at a price of HKD 630 per share, representing an approximate discount of 8.03% from the closing price on May 7 [2]. - The total expected proceeds from the placement are around HKD 27.15 billion, with a net amount of approximately HKD 26.98 billion [2]. - The share placement is set to be completed by May 15, 2025, or at another agreed date [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Lao Pu Gold reported revenues of HKD 85.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 167.5%, and a net profit of HKD 14.73 billion, up 253.9% [5]. - The company's gross margin stands at 41.2%, significantly higher than other jewelry brands [5]. - Since its IPO, Lao Pu Gold's stock price has increased over 1600%, despite a recent decline of 19.59% from its peak of HKD 881 per share [3][5]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Lao Pu Gold is recognized for its high-end brand positioning and has been compared to luxury brands like Hermes in the gold sector [5]. - Despite its rapid growth, Lao Pu Gold's market share in the ancient gold jewelry segment is only 2%, ranking seventh among competitors [5][6]. - Major competitors like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have significantly larger revenue scales, with Chow Tai Fook reporting HKD 394.08 billion in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Intentions - The proceeds from the share issuance will be primarily allocated to core business development, including store expansion and optimization [4]. - The company aims to address the upcoming share unlock pressure by diluting share concentration through this placement [4]. - Lao Pu Gold's strategy includes accelerating store openings, with a net increase of six stores in 2024, and optimizing existing locations [6].