Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the synthetic rubber industry is weak, and the trend strength is rated as neutral (0) [3]. 2. Core View - In the short term, cis - butadiene rubber will operate in a weak and volatile manner. Although previous macro sentiment and geopolitical conflicts gave high emotional premiums to futures, with the correction of the equity market, cis - butadiene rubber has fallen sharply. Based on the current valuation, there is limited static downside space due to cost support, and the dynamic situation mainly depends on whether the decline of butadiene can open up downside space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 11,605 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 48,324 lots to 114,797 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,463 lots to 94,184 lots, and the trading value decreased by 303,256 ten - thousand yuan to 675,888 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract increased by 210 to 145; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 (private) increased by 15 to - 90. The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) all decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The Shandong cis - butadiene rubber market price (deliverable product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 150 and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 150 and 175 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 79.6548%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,337 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to - 437 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 14, 2026, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous period. There were imported vessels arriving at the port during the week, the downstream operating situation had no obvious change, the raw material inventory was normally digested, and the sample inventory increased slightly [2]. - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.50%. This period saw the domestic cis - butadiene rubber supply remain at a high level. The strong demand at the butadiene raw material end and some export transactions drove up the production cost significantly. The cost side supported the mainstream supply price and the spot - end quotation center to continue to move up. However, the strong resistance of downstream customers to high prices led to obvious differences in negotiations, and the inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both increased to varying degrees [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the futures price is near the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber, so the futures price rebounds slightly with support from phased valuation. The subsequent valuation may be suitable for narrowing the NR - BR spread. Medium - term, the fundamental pressure is still high and the trend remains under pressure [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (11 contract), the daily closing price was 10,895 yuan/ton (up 115 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 60,255 lots (down 4756 lots), the open interest was 24,468 lots (down 4607 lots), and the trading volume was 325.556 million yuan (down 26.433 million yuan) [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased by 115 to 155; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 increased by 25 to 60; the prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,050 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) decreased by 50 to 11,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) increased by 50 to 10,550 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong decreased by 25 to 8,575 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.9923%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene remained unchanged at 11,358 yuan/ton, and the butadiene profit remained unchanged at - 158 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] - On October 15, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3050 tons from the previous period. The inventory increased significantly after the holiday due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels. Traders expect the import volume in October to be abundant [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the commodity market was driven by the warming of macro - sentiment last night, and the rubber sector rose collectively at the end of the night session. The futures market has strong short - term speculation. However, the overall spot trading of synthetic rubber is weak, and the spot speculation is limited. With significant fundamental pressure, the upside space is limited. Therefore, the overall short - term trend of the market is expected to be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 84,323 lots, a decrease of 89,309 lots; the open interest was 27,783 lots, a decrease of 250 lots; the trading volume was 477.212 million yuan, a decrease of 495.802 million yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was 140 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The monthly spread of BR07 - BR08 North China butadiene rubber (private) was - 110 yuan, a decrease of 145 yuan. The prices of East China butadiene rubber (private) and South China butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,250 yuan and 11,300 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,450 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 11,750 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 10,650 yuan, up 150 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 9,050 yuan, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Shandong was 9,075 yuan, down 75 yuan [1]. 3.1.3 Fundamental Data - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.2894%, down 0.35% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan; the butadiene rubber profit was - 370 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 9th, it was reported that the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from the previous period. Although the arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, some domestic supplies supplemented, resulting in a slight increase in the inventory of sample ports. The tradable volume in ports is currently limited, and merchants expect a possible decline in imports in July [1]. - As of July 9, 2025 (week 28), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period (2025702), a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber was expected to decline. Along with the improvement of low - price transactions at the butadiene raw material end and the news of a malfunction in an upstream device in East China, the cautious and bearish sentiment in the market was partially alleviated, driving some rigid - demand purchases to follow up with price pressure. The price difference between private resources and Sinopec/CNPC resources narrowed. The overall inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [1][3].