2026 年 01 月 20 日 合成橡胶: 短期弱势运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,605 114,797 | 11,815 163,121 | -210 -48324 | | | （03合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 94,184 | 95,647 | -1463 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 675,888 | 979,143 | -303256 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | 145 | -65 | 210 | | | 月差 | | BR02-BR05 （民营） | -90 | -105 | 15 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | | | | | | 华北顺丁 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,450 11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the futures price is near the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber, so the futures price rebounds slightly with support from phased valuation. The subsequent valuation may be suitable for narrowing the NR - BR spread. Medium - term, the fundamental pressure is still high and the trend remains under pressure [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (11 contract), the daily closing price was 10,895 yuan/ton (up 115 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 60,255 lots (down 4756 lots), the open interest was 24,468 lots (down 4607 lots), and the trading volume was 325.556 million yuan (down 26.433 million yuan) [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased by 115 to 155; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 increased by 25 to 60; the prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,050 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) decreased by 50 to 11,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) increased by 50 to 10,550 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong decreased by 25 to 8,575 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.9923%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene remained unchanged at 11,358 yuan/ton, and the butadiene profit remained unchanged at - 158 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] - On October 15, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3050 tons from the previous period. The inventory increased significantly after the holiday due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels. Traders expect the import volume in October to be abundant [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the commodity market was driven by the warming of macro - sentiment last night, and the rubber sector rose collectively at the end of the night session. The futures market has strong short - term speculation. However, the overall spot trading of synthetic rubber is weak, and the spot speculation is limited. With significant fundamental pressure, the upside space is limited. Therefore, the overall short - term trend of the market is expected to be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 84,323 lots, a decrease of 89,309 lots; the open interest was 27,783 lots, a decrease of 250 lots; the trading volume was 477.212 million yuan, a decrease of 495.802 million yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was 140 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The monthly spread of BR07 - BR08 North China butadiene rubber (private) was - 110 yuan, a decrease of 145 yuan. The prices of East China butadiene rubber (private) and South China butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,250 yuan and 11,300 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,450 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 11,750 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 10,650 yuan, up 150 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 9,050 yuan, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Shandong was 9,075 yuan, down 75 yuan [1]. 3.1.3 Fundamental Data - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.2894%, down 0.35% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan; the butadiene rubber profit was - 370 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 9th, it was reported that the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from the previous period. Although the arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, some domestic supplies supplemented, resulting in a slight increase in the inventory of sample ports. The tradable volume in ports is currently limited, and merchants expect a possible decline in imports in July [1]. - As of July 9, 2025 (week 28), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period (2025702), a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber was expected to decline. Along with the improvement of low - price transactions at the butadiene raw material end and the news of a malfunction in an upstream device in East China, the cautious and bearish sentiment in the market was partially alleviated, driving some rigid - demand purchases to follow up with price pressure. The price difference between private resources and Sinopec/CNPC resources narrowed. The overall inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [1][3].