2026 年 01 月 20 日 合成橡胶: 短期弱势运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,605 114,797 | 11,815 163,121 | -210 -48324 | | | （03合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 94,184 | 95,647 | -1463 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 675,888 | 979,143 | -303256 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | 145 | -65 | 210 | | | 月差 | | BR02-BR05 （民营） | -90 | -105 | 15 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | | | | | | 华北顺丁 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,450 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillating operation, with fundamental pressure but valuation support" for synthetic rubber [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, after the trading of low warehouse receipts and Southeast Asian natural disasters in the rubber sector, it has returned to an oscillating pattern. Due to two consecutive weeks of slight inventory accumulation in butadiene rubber, it is in a profit - shrinking trading logic under the inventory - accumulation pattern and is experiencing a short - term weak decline. In the medium - term, the fundamental pressure on butadiene remains high, driving down the lower limit of the dynamic valuation of butadiene rubber. The butadiene rubber futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. With the weak industrial chain fundamentals, butadiene rubber will return to an oscillating and pressured pattern after a short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand pattern improvement and inventory data in late November and early December [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (01 contract), the daily closing price decreased from 10,395 yuan/ton to 10,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton; the trading volume decreased from 131,155 lots to 114,069 lots, a decrease of 17,086 lots; the open interest decreased from 70,323 lots to 68,735 lots, a decrease of 1,588 lots; and the trading volume decreased from 678,682 ten - thousand yuan to 588,418 ten - thousand yuan, a decrease of 90,264 ten - thousand yuan [1] 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased from 105 to 230, an increase of 125; the monthly spread of BR12 - BR01 decreased from 0 to -30 [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - For butadiene rubber prices, North China private butadiene decreased from 10,050 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton; East China private butadiene decreased from 10,250 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton; South China private butadiene decreased from 10,300 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton; Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) remained unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton. For styrene - butadiene rubber prices, Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) decreased from 11,050 yuan/ton to 10,950 yuan/ton; Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) decreased from 10,000 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton. For butadiene prices, the mainstream price in Jiangsu decreased from 7,000 yuan/ton to 6,950 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Shandong decreased from 7,175 yuan/ton to 7,150 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 68.4798%; the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 9,916 yuan/ton; the butadiene rubber profit decreased from 784 yuan/ton to 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Industry News - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the total domestic butadiene sample inventory increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.17% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 37.24% week - on - week. The market supply has increased recently, and the inventory accumulation has been aggravated [1][3] - As of November 26, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.95%. Due to sufficient supply of private resources and a lack of cost - side driving factors, downstream price - pressing mentality was firm, and the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both increased [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is volatile, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The decline of butadiene prices drags down the price of synthetic rubber, and the macro - driving force weakens, resulting in the weak operation of butadiene rubber. However, there may be a phased improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber in mid - to late November [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market - The trading volume of the butadiene rubber futures main contract was 106,318 lots, with a decrease of 21,826 lots compared to the previous day. The closing price of the day - session was 10,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from the previous day. The open interest was 85,686 lots, an increase of 1,745 lots. The trading volume was 544.281 million yuan, a decrease of 108.999 million yuan [1][2]. - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was 160, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR12 - BR01 was 65, a decrease of 15 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - Butadiene rubber prices: North China (private) was 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China (private) was 10,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; South China (private) was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong market price (delivery product) was 10,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber prices: Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) was 10,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) was 9,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Butadiene prices: The mainstream price in Jiangsu was 6,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in Shandong was 7,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 68.4798%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points compared to the previous day [1]. - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [2]. - In the period from October 23 - 29, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23%. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% month - on - month, and the inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% month - on - month [4]. 3.4 Industry News - In the short term, the decline of butadiene rubber has slowed down due to the decline in inventory and the phased improvement of spot transactions. In the medium term, the weak operation of butadiene has led to a downward movement of butadiene rubber prices. The high supply pressure of butadiene in the fourth quarter is the main contradiction, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. With the decline of the cost side, the processing profit of butadiene rubber has expanded significantly. The macro - driving force has weakened, and butadiene rubber is operating weakly [4]. - Attention should be paid to whether there will be a phased improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber during the concentrated maintenance in mid - to late November and under the background of the high nr - br spread [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the futures price is near the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber, so the futures price rebounds slightly with support from phased valuation. The subsequent valuation may be suitable for narrowing the NR - BR spread. Medium - term, the fundamental pressure is still high and the trend remains under pressure [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (11 contract), the daily closing price was 10,895 yuan/ton (up 115 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 60,255 lots (down 4756 lots), the open interest was 24,468 lots (down 4607 lots), and the trading volume was 325.556 million yuan (down 26.433 million yuan) [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased by 115 to 155; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 increased by 25 to 60; the prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,050 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) decreased by 50 to 11,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) increased by 50 to 10,550 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong decreased by 25 to 8,575 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.9923%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene remained unchanged at 11,358 yuan/ton, and the butadiene profit remained unchanged at - 158 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] - On October 15, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3050 tons from the previous period. The inventory increased significantly after the holiday due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels. Traders expect the import volume in October to be abundant [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the commodity market was driven by the warming of macro - sentiment last night, and the rubber sector rose collectively at the end of the night session. The futures market has strong short - term speculation. However, the overall spot trading of synthetic rubber is weak, and the spot speculation is limited. With significant fundamental pressure, the upside space is limited. Therefore, the overall short - term trend of the market is expected to be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 84,323 lots, a decrease of 89,309 lots; the open interest was 27,783 lots, a decrease of 250 lots; the trading volume was 477.212 million yuan, a decrease of 495.802 million yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was 140 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The monthly spread of BR07 - BR08 North China butadiene rubber (private) was - 110 yuan, a decrease of 145 yuan. The prices of East China butadiene rubber (private) and South China butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,250 yuan and 11,300 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,450 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 11,750 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 10,650 yuan, up 150 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 9,050 yuan, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Shandong was 9,075 yuan, down 75 yuan [1]. 3.1.3 Fundamental Data - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.2894%, down 0.35% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan; the butadiene rubber profit was - 370 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 9th, it was reported that the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons from the previous period. Although the arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, some domestic supplies supplemented, resulting in a slight increase in the inventory of sample ports. The tradable volume in ports is currently limited, and merchants expect a possible decline in imports in July [1]. - As of July 9, 2025 (week 28), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period (2025702), a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber was expected to decline. Along with the improvement of low - price transactions at the butadiene raw material end and the news of a malfunction in an upstream device in East China, the cautious and bearish sentiment in the market was partially alleviated, driving some rigid - demand purchases to follow up with price pressure. The price difference between private resources and Sinopec/CNPC resources narrowed. The overall inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a weak - bearish outlook. The industry is expected to run weakly under the current situation [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - With the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict, international oil prices have fallen sharply. Against this backdrop, synthetic rubber is expected to run weakly due to significant fundamental pressure. Although the market is worried about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, it is difficult to get buying support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (07 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 11,575 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 3,792 lots to 102,647 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,322 lots to 10,874 lots, and the turnover decreased by 29,303 ten - thousand yuan to 594,738 ten - thousand yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract increased by 55 to 225; the monthly spread of BR06 - BR07 increased by 55 to - 11,575. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private cis - butadiene rubber were 11,670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 11,750 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,800 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (type 1502) and (type 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,200 yuan/ton and 11,000 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton and by 25 yuan/ton to 9,575 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 68.8633%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,388 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at - 388 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - The latest inventory of butadiene at East China ports is about 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. Importers expect a slight month - on - month increase in imports in June, and attention should be paid to the flow of goods [2]. - As of June 18, 2025 (week 25), the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%) compared with the previous period. Due to the impact of the rising crude oil prices caused by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has gradually increased. The overall inventory of sample producers has decreased, while the overall inventory of sample traders has increased [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run relatively strongly with the overall repair of macro - sentiment, following the upward trends of the rubber sector and crude oil. Although the fundamentals of butadiene - based cis - polybutadiene rubber currently have a neutral driving force, its relatively low valuation provides some support for the price [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the cis - polybutadiene rubber main contract (06 contract), the daily closing price was 11,820 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 189,461 lots, an increase of 78,727 lots; the open interest was 25,672 lots, up 1,552 lots; and the trading volume was 1,092,299 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 458,352 ten - thousand yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong cis - polybutadiene minus the futures main contract was - 70 yuan, down 320 yuan from the previous day; the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 North China cis - polybutadiene (private) was - 20 yuan, down 150 yuan from the previous day; the price of East China cis - polybutadiene (private) increased by 200 yuan, and the price of South China cis - polybutadiene (private) increased by 150 yuan [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The market price of Shandong cis - polybutadiene (delivery product) was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 12,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [1]. 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The operating rate of cis - polybutadiene was 79.4979%, down 0.17% from the previous day; the theoretical full cost of cis - polybutadiene was 12,388 yuan/ton, up 309 yuan; the profit of cis - polybutadiene was - 488 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News 3.2.1 Butadiene Market - The price of Asian butadiene remains stable, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals have improved, with support around 9300 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to ethylene plant maintenance. Short - term import arrivals are limited. The demand from the synthetic rubber sector has increased, and the inventory of butadiene producers and ports has risen [1][3]. 3.2.2 Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber Market - The fundamentals of cis - polybutadiene rubber currently have a neutral driving force. However, due to the previous significant decline, its low valuation provides support. There is no significant inventory build - up, and the high NR - BR spread has improved the demand for cis - polybutadiene, thus supporting the price [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 07 日 合成橡胶：原油反弹，震荡有支撑 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 【行业新闻】 1. 顺丁成本端，亚洲丁二烯价格维持稳定，国内丁二烯基本面有所好转，价格在 9000 元/吨附 近有支撑。供应端，目前丁二烯行业开工率同比仍维持高位，但由于部分乙烯装置开始集中 检修，丁二烯开工率开工率环比有所下降。进口方面，由于远洋货源较少，短期进口货源到 港量有限。需求端，顺丁橡胶对丁二烯采购量有所增加，丁苯、ABS、SBS 对丁二烯刚需采购 维持。库存端，丁二烯生产企业库存有所下降，港口库存小幅抬升。整体而言，目前合成橡胶 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 期货研究 期货研究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,315 113 ...

2025 年 04 月 29 日 合成橡胶：驱动有限格局下震荡运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （06合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,360 | 11,335 | 25 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 130,875 | 182,590 | -51715 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 38,806 | 42,499 | -3693 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 746,748 | 1,035,589 | -288841 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | 390 | 11,700 | -11310 | | | 月差 | | BR05-BR06 | 70 | 65 | 5 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | 11,500 | 11,450 ...