泷田洋一： 如今，通胀、人手不足与薪资上涨已逐渐成为日本经济运行的"新常态"，就在这一经济转 型的关键节点，对经济政策关注不足的石破茂即将卸任…… 泷田洋一： 在10月4日举行的自民党总裁选举中，高市早苗击败事前预期的热门人选，当选为新任总 裁。股票市场对高市早苗主张的"负责任的积极财政"表示欢迎，而债券市场则担忧国债发行量可能增 加。尽管政权初期一般都会出现此类预期，但市场似乎尚未预感日本经济会迎来更为重大的变革。 当前市场充满了看似矛盾的理论。其中最典型的例子是，尽管石破茂政权在任期间对经济政策关注不 足，日经平均股价却以历史高点为其任期画上了"善始善终"的句号。与此同时，面对"人手不足"这一严 峻挑战，企业为求生存所采取的应对举措，正不断催生超出预期的结果。或许，这种切实感受正是当前 市场态势背后的逻辑。 9月日本银行（央行）发布的全国企业短期经济观测调查（简称"短观"）显示，企业的软件投资呈现爆 发式增长态势。从2025年度的投资计划来看，大型企业同比增长10.7%，这一数据尚在预料之中，而真 正令人瞩目的是中坚企业和中小企业的表现——中坚企业的投资计划同比增长14.6%，中小企业更是同 比增长28. ...

Group 1 - The upcoming Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is seen as a precursor to the national Diet's House of Councillors election, with voting scheduled for June 22 [2][4] - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is under scrutiny to maintain its seats in the Tokyo Assembly, as no party holds an absolute majority [4] - Recent polls indicate a rise in support for Abe, with one poll showing a 6% increase to 39% and another showing a 7% increase to 34%, up from around 20% previously [4] Group 2 - Approximately 300 candidates are contesting in the Tokyo Assembly election, marking the highest number in over 30 years [4] - The main issues in the election include rising prices, political scandals, and demographic challenges such as aging and declining birth rates [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [6] Group 3 - Abe has pledged to increase nominal GDP to 1,000 trillion yen by 2040 and aims for a 50% increase in average wages, requiring an annual growth rate of approximately 2.74% [8] - The LDP is considering cash handouts to citizens to alleviate the impact of rising prices [9] - The price of rice in Japan has doubled compared to the previous year, with the average price for a 5 kg bag reaching 4,223 yen [9] Group 4 - Japan's government is facing pressure from U.S. tariffs, with a significant decline in business confidence reported among large enterprises [11] - The confidence index for large companies dropped from 2.0 to -1.9 in the second quarter, with the manufacturing sector particularly affected [11] - The steel industry confidence index fell to -29.1, while the automotive sector index was at -16.1, indicating severe challenges [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on June 22, which is seen as a precursor to the national Diet's House of Councillors election in July [2][4] - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is under scrutiny as it seeks to maintain its seats in the assembly, with recent polls showing a rise in Ishiba's approval ratings [4][5] - The election features a record number of candidates, with approximately 300 participants, surpassing the previous high of 271 candidates in 2021 [4] Group 2 - Key issues in the election include rising prices, the political scandal involving the LDP, and the government's response to aging and declining birth rates [5] - Ishiba has pledged to increase nominal GDP to 1,000 trillion yen by 2040 and aims for a 50% increase in average wages, which requires an annual growth rate of approximately 2.74% [7] - The government is also considering cash handouts to citizens to alleviate the impact of rising prices, particularly in response to soaring rice prices [8] Group 3 - The article highlights the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which has seen a decline in business confidence [9] - The confidence index for large enterprises has dropped to negative territory, with significant declines in the steel and automotive industries due to U.S. trade policies [9]

Core Insights - California's nominal GDP for 2024 has surpassed Japan's, making it the fourth largest economy in the world [1] Economic Impact - The announcement by California Governor Gavin Newsom highlights the state's significant economic growth and its position in the global economy [1]