北京商报讯（记者 刘宇阳 实习生 姚榕琰）12月23日，据中国证券业协会消息，协会于12月19日组织召开了新一届首席经济学家（发展战略）专业委员会全 体会议暨2025年第四季度首席经济学家例会。 会上，部分首席经济学家围绕2026年宏观经济和资本市场运行做了分析展望，还有部分首席经济学家就"人民币国际化""向改革要红利""如何提升居民消费 率"展开了专题交流。此外，还有部分行业专家就编制资本市场和证券行业"十五五"规划提出了意见建议。 会上强调，行业机构首席经济学家要发挥分析研究专长，加强对宏观经济和资本市场重大问题的研究，讲好中国"股市叙事"，努力为宏观经济和资本市场改 革发展稳定贡献专家智慧和力量。 ...

中国证券业协会表示，下一步，将深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，认真落 实中国证监会主席吴清在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上的讲话要求，紧扣"自律、服务、传导"职 能，凝聚行业智慧和力量，主动谋划长远，组织编制好证券行业"十五五"规划，积极推动证券行业和资 本市场高质量发展。 中国证券业协会党委委员、副会长汪兆军宣布了新一届首席经济学家（发展战略）专业委员会成员的聘 任决定，主任委员管涛做了发言。中国证券业协会党委书记、执行副会长吴运浩表示，行业机构首席经 济学家要发挥分析研究专长，加强对宏观经济和资本市场重大问题的研究，讲好中国"股市叙事"，努力 为宏观经济和资本市场改革发展稳定贡献专家智慧和力量。 本报讯 （记者周尚伃）12月19日，中国证券业协会组织召开新一届首席经济学家（发展战略）专业委 员会全体会议暨2025年第四季度证券基金行业首席经济学家例会。会议认真学习了党的二十届四中全会 和中央经济工作会议精神，对2026年宏观经济进行了分析展望，并就编制资本市场和证券行业"十五 五"规划进行了交流研讨。主任委员管涛，副主任委员戴彦、章俊、赵伟等17位委员会成员现场参会， 20多位委员会 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Association held a meeting for the new Chief Economist (Development Strategy) Professional Committee, focusing on macroeconomic and capital market issues to contribute expert insights for reform and stability [1] - The meeting included discussions on the 2026 macroeconomic outlook and the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market and securities industry [1] - Over 50 participants from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and relevant government departments attended the meeting, highlighting the collaborative effort in the industry [1] Group 2 - The meeting featured a presentation by the Chief Economist of Everbright Pramerica Fund, who released the results of a survey predicting the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Various chief economists from different firms provided analyses on topics such as "RMB internationalization," "gaining dividends from reform," and "how to enhance consumer spending" [2] - The China Securities Association announced the appointment of new members to the Chief Economist (Development Strategy) Professional Committee and emphasized the importance of aligning with the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the conference is that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, driven by the "three new" concepts: new factor systems, new institutional frameworks, and new service systems [1] - The chief economist predicts that 2025 will be a year of recovering confidence, while 2026 will see comprehensive reforms and development, leading to atypical economic recovery and improved profitability [1] - The concept of "seeking dividends from reform" encompasses three meanings: accelerated reform progress presenting significant opportunities, short-term policies to boost domestic demand continuing under a long-term reform framework, and the breadth, depth, and strength of the "dividends" being closely tied to reforms [1] Group 2 - The "two-phase theory of rising markets" suggests that the technology-driven market in 2025 will represent "Phase 1.0," potentially peaking in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive market phase "Phase 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2] - The "Phase 1.0" is expected to reach its peak in spring 2026, with the AI industry still showing growth potential, although A-share AI stocks are currently in a long-term low-value area [2] - In "Phase 2.0," it is anticipated that midstream manufacturing supply will clear, with capacity growth rates falling below demand growth, leading to improved stock selection success rates [2] Group 3 - The industry outlook indicates that the "Phase 1.0" is at a high level, with one more opportunity for technology growth before spring 2026, while the transition to "Phase 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks [3] - The "Phase 2.0" will see cyclical stocks leading index breakthroughs, with technology industry trends and the global influence of manufacturing becoming the main themes [3] - Three structural clues to watch include recovery trades (basic chemicals, industrial metals), technology industry trends (AI industry chain, humanoid robots), and the enhancement of manufacturing influence (chemicals, engineering machinery) [3]