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朝闻道 20251126:反弹不改震荡格局,继续逢低布局
Orient Securities· 2025-11-26 01:10
Market Strategy - The recent market rebound aligns with previous predictions of a "layout window emerging," but the market has not shown a simultaneous increase in volume and price, indicating that the rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern [6] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach to technology growth sectors, which are more sensitive to risk preferences [6] - The real estate market has been in a downward trend since the policy release last September, with recent price increases in the sector driven by changes in policy expectations and capital inflows, but further confirmation of policy effectiveness is needed to sustain this momentum [6] Sector Strategy - In the technology sector, a cautious approach is recommended due to the difficulty in further upward adjustments in expectations amid declining risk appetite [6] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector, characterized by medium risk, is expected to gain market consensus as conditions evolve [6] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy measures, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence and reverse negative expectations [6] Defense Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan, totaling approximately $82 million, may accelerate China's equipment development in response to increasing uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - The geopolitical climate, influenced by Japan's military expansion and U.S. support, is likely to drive growth in China's defense capabilities [6]
投顾晨报:淡看指数腾细浪,且向中盘掘真金-20251113
Orient Securities· 2025-11-13 10:13
Market Strategy - The report suggests a cautious outlook on index movements, emphasizing the potential for mid-cap stocks to uncover real investment opportunities [2][8] - It highlights that while corporate earnings are supported, sustained outperformance is challenging, and market style may shift towards mid-cap blue chips in the consumer, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors [8] Industry Strategy - In the home appliance sector, consumption driven by home scenarios is leading growth, with resilient performance from smart products [3][8] - Data from the "Double 11" shopping festival indicates strong overall performance in the home appliance industry, with significant growth in brands like Midea and Haier, and a notable 12.5% increase in transaction share on Tmall [8] Thematic Strategy - The military industry is highlighted with the commissioning of China's first electromagnetic aircraft carrier, marking a significant advancement in military capabilities and benefiting related enterprises in the new production capacity chain [4][8] - The report identifies specific companies and ETFs related to the defense sector that are expected to benefit from this advancement [8]