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中国银河证券:国补退坡零售下滑 空调出口继续调整
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 08:16
Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning retail market in China is experiencing a significant slowdown due to the impact of reduced national subsidies and high year-on-year comparison bases starting from September 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Sales and Production - From September to November, the domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline compared to the same period last year, with decreases of -6.3%, -23.4%, and -17.6% respectively, indicating a cautious industry outlook [1][2]. - In August, domestic air conditioning shipments reached 7.737 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, driven by sustained high temperatures across the country [2]. - The reduction in national subsidy funding has led to various measures across provinces to control subsidy spending, including daily limits on subsidies and the suspension of certain categories [2]. Group 2: Export Trends - In August, air conditioning exports totaled 5.287 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, although this was an improvement compared to previous production forecasts [3]. - For September to November, the expected production for household air conditioning exports shows declines of -16.6%, -7.8%, and -9.1% respectively, attributed to the transfer of U.S. orders overseas and high year-on-year comparison bases [3]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The retail average price of air conditioners in the offline market has shown a recovery, rising to 4,301 yuan per unit in September after a decline from April to July [4]. - Online retail prices have also improved, with the average price reaching 2,859 yuan per unit in September, following a downward trend earlier in the year [4]. Group 4: Industry Competition and Service Upgrades - Xiaomi has announced an upgrade to a 10-year free warranty for its air conditioners, reflecting a shift in the industry from price competition to a focus on quality and service [5]. - The extension of service periods is expected to enhance consumer confidence in product quality and increase competitive pressure on manufacturers [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current market is active, with traditional home appliance leaders lacking growth potential, while technology-related companies are performing better [6][7]. - Recommendations include companies with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, as well as innovative firms like Ousheng Electric and Rongtai Health [6][7].
吉利控股李东辉:坚守反内卷,坚持打价值战、技术战、企业道德战
Xin Lang Ke Ji· 2025-08-14 11:26
Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto emphasizes its commitment to a value-driven, technology-focused, quality-oriented, service-centric, brand-conscious, and ethically responsible approach in the automotive industry, advocating for open and healthy competition [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - Geely aims to play a leading role in supporting high-quality development within the industry by standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days, ensuring stability in the supply chain [1] - The company prioritizes user satisfaction and advocates for safety equity, making safety the top priority while achieving mass production of AI technology applications in vehicles [1] - Geely is committed to steady operations and high levels of integration and collaboration, guided by the "Taizhou Declaration," and is focused on deep resource integration and efficient synergy [1] Group 2: Industry Perspective - The advancement of anti-involution in the industry is expected to lead to more rational and orderly competition, with companies like Geely that adhere to long-termism and focus on enhancing comprehensive strength gaining a competitive edge in the future [1]