专题报告 2025-08-28 行情复盘：本轮反弹为何发生在 6 月？ 报告要点： 我们认为本轮工业品的反弹发生在 6 月份，可能存在以下几个原因： 1）今年商品行情的主要矛盾之一的煤炭（主线）在 6-9 月份存在季节性走牛的特征，给到了 市场预期的空间以及叙事的基础； 2）6 月份整体商品的估值来到了显著低位，给到了资金进场博弈的良好性价比； 3）资本及商品市场情绪逐步向好，给到了反弹行情发生及发展的良好土壤。 以上的三点原因给到了 6 月份价格发生反弹的基础，而 7 月份的一系列偶发事件则给到了价格 向上反弹的十足弹性。同时，我们认为本轮的反弹是能够在一定程度上被预见的，但如此大幅 的反弹是市场波动的必然与突发事件这一偶然的结合，这一点我们认为无法被预见。 我们截取了 2024 年 10 月底至 2025 年 8 月初部分行情较为突出品种的价格走势情况（后续简 称样本品种），包括工业硅、碳酸锂、双焦、铁合金以及多晶硅，并以 2025 年 4 月 3 日为基点， 对价格做了指数化处理。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate. The macro situation, such as the Sino-US economic and trade consultations, improves market sentiment, and the raw material coal price stops falling and rebounds, alleviating the pessimistic sentiment. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high, and the steel demand side faces a seasonal off - season [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: By the end of May, over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds had been issued nationwide, completing over 80% of this year's 2 - trillion - yuan quota for replacing existing implicit debts. In May, Zhejiang and Sichuan took the lead in issuing special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing. Vice - Premier He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8th to 13th and held the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US side [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is ideal. Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point and warned that he might soon raise automobile tariffs to prompt automakers to accelerate investment in the US [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Manufacturers' production cuts have led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 13.2 tons this period, the downstream molten iron production peaked and declined, the raw material coal price stopped falling and rebounded, and the pessimistic sentiment improved. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 240 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 570 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro and fundamental factors, the silicon - manganese market should be treated as oscillating [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest increased by 1,359 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 8. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt volume decreased by 3,061 lots, and the price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts decreased by 150 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 46 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 [21]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of manufacturers continued to rise from a low level, with the daily average output increasing by 215 tons to 24,770 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 2.89% to 122,153 tons, and the weekly supply increased by 0.88% to 173,390 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 9,300 tons to 195,900 tons [24][29]. - **Upstream Situation**: The manganese ore price decreased by 4 yuan/ton - degree, and the electricity price remained flat. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 13.2 tons to 420.20 tons. The arrival volume of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Ghana increased significantly. The silicon - manganese production cost decreased by 40 yuan/ton in both the northern and southern regions, and the production profit increased by 60 yuan/ton in the north and 50 yuan/ton in the south [35][41][48]. - **Downstream Situation**: The molten iron production decreased by 0.19 tons to 241.61 tons, and the silicon - manganese steel procurement price in May decreased by 100 yuan/ton [52].