Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with funds moving from high-valuation technology growth sectors to lower-valuation, high-visibility consumer and cyclical sectors, indicating a change in institutional allocation focus for the fourth quarter [1][14]. Group 1: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed remarkable strength, with the liquor index surging 4.7%, marking the third-largest increase of the year, alongside strong performances in duty-free, department stores, and dairy sectors [2]. - The recovery in macroeconomic data, particularly the October CPI turning positive and exceeding market expectations, alleviated deflation concerns and signaled a rebound in consumer demand [2][3]. - Preliminary data from major e-commerce platforms during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicated significant year-on-year sales growth in categories like liquor, cosmetics, and home appliances, enhancing market sentiment towards liquor and duty-free industries [3]. - Regional liquor companies and leading duty-free operator China Duty Free Group outperformed high-end liquor brands, reflecting a focus on growth potential rather than brand premium in current consumer allocation strategies [4]. Group 2: Cyclical Sector - The cyclical sector also performed strongly, with significant gains in chemical, phosphate, and photovoltaic equipment sectors [5]. - Demand for new energy materials, particularly lithium iron phosphate and fluorinated chemicals, has notably increased due to global energy transition, leading to improved order visibility for leading companies [6]. - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a recovery in production scheduling, with stable pricing for upstream silicon materials and components, attracting investor interest [7]. - The CRB commodity index has risen by 3.2% over the past two weeks, boosting confidence in the price recovery of metals and chemicals, which typically draws in more short-term and trend-following funds [8]. Group 3: Technology Growth Sector - The technology growth sector faced significant outflows, with AI, CPO, and humanoid robot sectors generally declining [10]. - A mismatch between valuations and earnings has emerged, as many high-growth sectors reported slowing net profit growth post-Q3 disclosures, leading to increased valuation pressure [11]. - Northbound funds and some public offerings have significantly reduced their exposure to technology sectors, shifting towards sectors with strong cash flow and short-term earnings certainty, such as liquor and chemicals [12]. - The previously overheated themes of artificial intelligence and robotics are experiencing a downturn due to a lack of new policies or technological breakthroughs, resulting in decreased investor interest [13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The collective strength of consumer and cyclical sectors reflects a broader trend of institutional reallocation, favoring low-valuation, stable cash flow industries as earnings expectations for technology growth sectors have not been met [14]. - The market's preference for "certainty over high elasticity" during a weak economic recovery phase suggests that the concentration of funds in consumer and cyclical sectors may continue for the next 2-4 weeks until new policies or industry catalysts emerge [19]. - Investment strategies should focus on identifying leading companies within the consumer recovery narrative and sectors showing marginal improvements in the new energy cycle, while being cautious with technology growth stocks until adjustments are complete [18].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report The report concludes that the rebound of industrial products in June 2025 can be attributed to three main factors: the seasonal bullish trend of coal (a major contradiction in this year's commodity market) from June to September, the significantly low valuation of commodities in June offering good cost - effectiveness for capital entry, and the improving sentiment in the capital and commodity markets. The accidental events in July provided strong impetus for the upward rebound. The overall rebound could be anticipated to some extent, but the magnitude of the rebound was a combination of market volatility and accidental events, which was unpredictable [1][31][32]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Review - The price of commodities showed a clear divide around June 3, 2025. Before June 3, prices continued the downward trend since 2024, while after that date, the sentiment improved and prices started to rise, officially breaking away from the downward trend on the week of July 21 [4]. - Most industrial products, excluding some strong - macro and oil - related products, had their price inflection points in June [4]. Role of Coal in the Market - Coal, especially coking coal, has been a major contradiction and a main line in the commodity market since October 2024. It is either the direct upstream raw material or a major cost component for other sample products [13][14]. - The market has traded two main themes this year: "excess" or "deflation" trading and "anti - involution" sentiment - driven supply - side 2.0 expected trading. The market was dominated by sentiment and capital behavior from late April to early June [14]. - From June to September, coal has a seasonal bullish characteristic. June is the safety production month, and July - September is the traditional demand peak season. There are potential marginal changes in supply contraction and demand expansion during this period [15][19]. Reasons for the June Rebound - Coal's seasonal bullish trend from June to September provides market expectations and a narrative basis [1][31]. - In June, the overall commodity valuation reached a significantly low level, offering good cost - effectiveness for capital to enter the market. For example, coking coal had a high cost - effectiveness ratio of 4:1 or 5:1 [27][28][31]. - The improving sentiment in the capital and commodity markets in late June provided a good environment for the rebound. The accidental events in July, such as the "anti - involution" policy, further boosted the upward trend [31]. Trading Suggestions and Lessons - Based on the above reasons, a suggestion to close short positions profitably in June could be made. However, large - scale long - position entry should be considered after the "anti - involution" policy on July 1 [37]. - Many short - position holders increased their positions instead of closing them, resulting in huge losses and even forced liquidation. They failed to recognize the objective development of the market [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate. The macro situation, such as the Sino-US economic and trade consultations, improves market sentiment, and the raw material coal price stops falling and rebounds, alleviating the pessimistic sentiment. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high, and the steel demand side faces a seasonal off - season [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: By the end of May, over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds had been issued nationwide, completing over 80% of this year's 2 - trillion - yuan quota for replacing existing implicit debts. In May, Zhejiang and Sichuan took the lead in issuing special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing. Vice - Premier He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8th to 13th and held the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US side [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is ideal. Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point and warned that he might soon raise automobile tariffs to prompt automakers to accelerate investment in the US [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Manufacturers' production cuts have led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 13.2 tons this period, the downstream molten iron production peaked and declined, the raw material coal price stopped falling and rebounded, and the pessimistic sentiment improved. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 240 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 570 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro and fundamental factors, the silicon - manganese market should be treated as oscillating [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest increased by 1,359 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 8. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt volume decreased by 3,061 lots, and the price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts decreased by 150 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 46 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 [21]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of manufacturers continued to rise from a low level, with the daily average output increasing by 215 tons to 24,770 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 2.89% to 122,153 tons, and the weekly supply increased by 0.88% to 173,390 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 9,300 tons to 195,900 tons [24][29]. - **Upstream Situation**: The manganese ore price decreased by 4 yuan/ton - degree, and the electricity price remained flat. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 13.2 tons to 420.20 tons. The arrival volume of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Ghana increased significantly. The silicon - manganese production cost decreased by 40 yuan/ton in both the northern and southern regions, and the production profit increased by 60 yuan/ton in the north and 50 yuan/ton in the south [35][41][48]. - **Downstream Situation**: The molten iron production decreased by 0.19 tons to 241.61 tons, and the silicon - manganese steel procurement price in May decreased by 100 yuan/ton [52].