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商品消费向服务消费变迁
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新财观 | 如何提升消费?——商品消费向服务消费变迁的国际经验
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 02:30
Core Insights - The article discusses the historical shift from goods consumption to service consumption across various economies, highlighting the transition from material needs to spiritual and experiential demands [1][2] Economic Transition - Different economic stages emphasize varying consumption focuses, starting with basic needs in early development, moving to durable goods in mid-development, and finally shifting to service consumption as income levels rise [1] - Japan's post-war economic history illustrates this transition, with service consumption surpassing goods consumption in the 1990s, and projected to reach 1.4 times goods consumption by 2024 [1] - In the U.S., service consumption surpassed goods consumption in the 1970s, expected to reach 68.5% by 2024, covering sectors like healthcare, education, finance, and entertainment [1][2] Service Consumption and GDP - Service consumption becomes a crucial driver of economic growth as GDP per capita rises, with a significant increase in service consumption share observed in both the U.S. and Japan [2] - In the U.S., personal consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP increased from 48.4% to 67.9% from 1944 to 2024, with service consumption growing from 21.4% to 46.5% [2] Employment Growth - Service consumption drives employment growth due to its labor-intensive nature, with significant job creation in sectors like education, healthcare, and entertainment [3] - In the U.S., the workforce in emerging service industries has grown significantly, outpacing traditional sectors [3] Future Development Directions - In Japan, cultural entertainment and healthcare are key growth areas, driven by an aging population and a shift in consumer spending towards services [4] - In the U.S., the focus is on internet services, healthcare, and luxury services, influenced by demographic shifts and changing consumer preferences [4] China's Service Consumption Trends - China's aging population and rising health consciousness indicate substantial growth potential in healthcare services [5] - The ongoing shift in consumer structure towards experience-oriented spending is evident, with education, culture, and entertainment consumption increasing from 10.6% to 11.3% from 2013 to 2024 [5]
商品消费向服务消费变迁的国际经验
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-05 11:35
Economic Transition - The shift from goods consumption to service consumption is a historical trend observed across economies, driven by economic development, demographic changes, and policy transformations[5] - In Japan, service consumption surpassed goods consumption in 1993, with service spending in 2024 projected to be 1.4 times that of goods consumption[7] - In the U.S., service consumption reached 68.5% of total consumption by 2024, reflecting a significant transition from goods to services[9] Economic Growth and GDP - Service consumption has become a key driver of economic growth, with its share of GDP in the U.S. increasing from 21.4% in 1944 to 46.5% in 2024, a rise of 25.1 percentage points[11] - In China, service consumption accounted for 46.1% of total consumption in 2024, indicating substantial growth potential[10] - The transition to service consumption is closely linked to GDP per capita surpassing $10,000, marking a shift from survival to development-oriented consumption[10] Employment Impact - The growth of service consumption has led to significant job creation, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as education, healthcare, and entertainment[12] - In Japan, service sector employment increased from 10.55 million in 1981 to 17.64 million in 2001, a growth of 67.2%[59] - In the U.S., service sector employment rose from 15.39 million in 1939 to 113.71 million in 2024, an increase of 639%[62] Future Development Areas - Key growth areas for service consumption include healthcare and entertainment in Japan, driven by aging demographics and changing consumer preferences[15] - In the U.S., sectors such as internet services, healthcare, and luxury services are expected to see significant growth due to demographic shifts and increased demand for quality experiences[14] - China's healthcare sector is projected to expand significantly, alongside a shift towards experience-oriented consumption[15]