专题：美12月核心CPI同比增2.6%，低于预期 核心要点 美国劳工统计局于周二发布报告称，12 月剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心消费者价格指数， 经季节性调整后环比上涨 0.2%、同比上涨 2.6%，两项数据均低于市场预期 0.1 个百分点。这一数据进 一步印证了市场对通胀持续降温的期待，而此时美联储正斟酌其下一步的利率政策。 美联储虽会参考整体通胀与核心通胀两项指标，但更将核心通胀视为衡量通胀长期走势的更可靠指标。 整体消费者价格指数环比上涨 0.3%，同比涨幅达 2.7%，两项数据均精准契合道琼斯的市场共识预期。 美联储设定的通胀目标为同比 2%，本次报告显示，物价上涨速度正逐步向目标靠拢，但仍处于偏高水 平。 报告发布后，美股期货短线走高，美债收益率则出现下行。芝加哥商品交易所集团的美联储观察工具显 示，交易员依旧认为，美联储将在本月下旬的议息会议上按兵不动，且大概率要到 6 月才会考虑再次降 息。 美国劳工统计局指出，作为核心通胀中粘性较强的关键组成部分，住房价格环比上涨 0.4%，是推动当 月整体通胀上行的最大贡献项。该类别权重占消费者价格指数的三分之一以上，同比涨幅为 3.2%。 核心消费 ...

西门子、敦豪集团、英飞凌科技等首席执行官随团。 新年伊始，德国总理默茨的亚洲之行首访选择了印度。 据报道，默茨于1月12日至13日访问印度。在抵达印度和印度总理莫迪会晤后，德印双方签署了一份谅 解备忘录，还就关键矿产、医疗卫生和人工智能（AI）创新中心签署了相关协议。 12日，莫迪在与默茨举行的联合新闻发布会上表示："今天签署的谅解备忘录将为我们的合作注入新的 动力和活力。" 据《环球时报》报道，外界普遍猜测，默茨此次访问印度期间，德印将达成一项价值80亿美元的潜艇制 造协议，涉及6艘配备不依赖空气推进（AIP）系统的先进常规潜艇，并进行全面的技术转让，这将对 印度海军的潜艇战略产生重大影响。 史世伟对第一财经记者表示，在德国的印度人增长速度较快，目前考虑到德国的老龄化难题，德国在护 理人员、外卖人员方面的劳动力缺口，需要来自于印度的务工人员填补。 他对记者介绍说，前往德国的高素质印度移民也较多，根据德国方面的统计，在德印度人的工资水平超 过在德中国人，"印度很多信息技术（IT）人员已经来到了德国。"他解释道。 他还补充道，以他所在的柏林而言，印度人在此地的增长速度很快，"现在在柏林的印度人已经超过中 国人了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. economy is experiencing structural divergence, with a strong GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025, but this growth is not translating into widespread economic benefits for the majority of the population [1][6][7] - The GDP growth is primarily driven by consumer spending, export rebound, and government spending, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) growing at an annualized rate of 3.5%, significantly contributed by healthcare services [2][3] - Trade factors have positively impacted GDP, with exports rebounding at an annualized rate of 8.8% and a reduction in imports, leading to a trade deficit shrinkage contributing approximately 1.59 percentage points to GDP [2][3] Group 2 - Fixed investment remains weak, with private fixed investment dragging down growth, particularly in non-AI sectors and residential investment continuing to decline [3][6] - Consumer confidence has decreased, with the index falling to 89.1 in December, indicating a negative outlook on household financial conditions for the first time in four years, contrasting sharply with the strong GDP growth [3][4] - The labor market shows signs of divergence, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, and job growth slowing, particularly affecting younger and lower-skilled workers [3][4] Group 3 - The "K-shaped economy" is evident, where high-income households benefit significantly, while middle and low-income groups face rising living costs and stagnant wage growth [4][6] - The bond market reflects skepticism about the sustainability of economic growth, with 10-year Treasury yields remaining stable despite strong GDP growth, indicating a pricing in of prolonged low growth or risks [4][5] - Precious metals markets have reacted negatively to the GDP data, with gold prices surging over 70% in 2025, indicating increased market uncertainty rather than confidence in a sustainable economic recovery [5][6] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the GDP figures may be distorted by one-time factors such as trade fluctuations and government spending, which do not support a broad-based economic recovery [6][7] - The consensus among economic indicators leans towards caution rather than optimism, with predictions of potential growth slowing to below 2% if labor market cooling continues and tariff uncertainties persist [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% in Q3, marking the fastest growth in two years, driven primarily by consumer spending and significant investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure [1][2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending in Q3 saw an annualized growth rate of 3.5%, becoming the main engine of economic growth, with notable contributions from healthcare services, international travel, legal services, and technology products [2][3] - The top 10% of income earners in the U.S. accounted for nearly half of total consumer spending, supported by a booming stock market that bolstered high-end consumption and service demand [2][3] Artificial Intelligence Investment - Investment in artificial intelligence has slowed from previous highs but still contributed significantly to economic growth, with AI-related investments and high-income household consumption together accounting for nearly 70% of the growth in the quarter [3][4] Economic Imbalances - The economic growth is characterized by imbalances, with consumer confidence indices remaining low and durable goods spending slowing down, reflecting public concerns over high prices and the job market [3][4] - Non-residential fixed asset investment showed signs of weakness, and residential investment declined for the second consecutive quarter, with an annualized drop of 5.1% [3][4] Inflation and Income Dynamics - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose to an annualized rate of 2.9%, up from 2.6% in the previous quarter, indicating a slight uptick in inflation [3][4] - After adjusting for inflation, disposable personal income remained flat, suggesting that income growth is barely keeping pace with rising prices, which is particularly challenging for low-income households [3][4] Household Debt Trends - U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, with mortgage debt being the largest component at $13.07 trillion [4][5] - The credit market is experiencing a "K-shaped" divergence, where low-income households face increasing financial pressure, while high-income borrowers benefit from stock market gains and rising property values [5]

政府支出：联邦政府与州和地方政府支出均实现增长，其中联邦政府支出以国防消费为主要支撑，州和 地方政府支出则聚焦消费性支出。 新华财经北京12月23日电 （王晓伟）美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）23日发布数据显示，2025年第三 季度（7月-9月）美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长4.3%，较第二季度3.8%的增速加快， 美国经济延续扩张。 受此前美国联邦政府停摆影响，本次三季度GDP首次估算报告替代了原定于10月30日发布的初步估算及 11月26日发布的二次估算。数据显示，三季度美国经济增长主要得益于消费支出、出口和政府支出的增 加，部分抵消了投资下降的拖累；同时进口（GDP核算中按减法计入）减少，对经济增长形成正向贡 献。 从关联指标来看，三季度实际私人国内最终销售额（消费支出与私人固定投资之和）增长3.0%，略高 于二季度2.9%的增速；实际国内总收入（GDI）增长2.4%，较二季度修正后的2.6%小幅放缓；GDP与 GDI的平均值增长3.4%，高于二季度修正后的3.2%，反映经济增长基础相对稳固。 消费支出：作为经济增长的核心引擎，三季度消费支出同比加速增长。服务消费中，医疗保健（含门诊 及住 ...

Core Viewpoint - 嘉涛(香港)控股 reported a total revenue of approximately HKD 174 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, representing an increase of about 17.8% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The profit attributable to the company's owners was approximately HKD 27 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 5.1% [1] - The board of directors did not recommend the payment of an interim dividend for the six months ending September 30, 2025, consistent with the previous period where no dividend was declared [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, was approximately HKD 174 million, up 17.8% from the previous year [1] - Profit attributable to owners was approximately HKD 27 million, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year [1] - No interim dividend was proposed for the current period, maintaining the same stance as the previous year [1] Business Development - In 2022, the company expanded into the medical diagnostics and health check market in Hong Kong [1] - The company offers a variety of healthcare services, including general health checks, X-rays, ECGs, mammograms, ultrasounds, DEXA bone density tests, and various laboratory tests [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the company operated three medical health check centers in three regions of Hong Kong [1] - The company terminated its medical and laboratory services in April 2025 to focus resources on developing elderly care services [1]

TELUS Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: TELUS (NYSE: TU) - **Date**: November 24, 2025 - **Speaker**: Doug French, CFO Key Points Industry and Competitive Landscape - TELUS focuses on three pillars: best networks, best products, and best customer service [4][5] - The competitive intensity in the mobile industry has eased since May, with a quieter Black Friday compared to previous years [7][8] - Pricing in Canada has decreased significantly, with rates down over 70% compared to initial asks, indicating a need for correction due to higher delivery costs [8][9] Financial Performance and Growth - Wireless Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is showing slow and steady improvement, expected to continue into 2026, although still negative [12][13] - In Q3, TELUS added 40,000 internet subscribers, with growth evenly split between Eastern and Western Canada, and across business segments [16][17] - Fixed data revenue growth has slowed to 1%, primarily due to pressures in the business sector, while consumer internet revenue remains strong at over 6% [26][28] Fiber Deployment Strategy - TELUS is expanding fiber deployment into Eastern Canada, aligning with its capital intensity objectives [20][21] - The company aims to bundle internet services with existing wireless customers in the East, enhancing service offerings [24] AI and Digital Growth - TELUS aims to grow AI-enabling revenue from $800 million to $2 billion over the next few years, with significant contributions from TELUS Digital and B2B growth [31][32] - The company is leveraging its data centers for AI and compute services, with partnerships with NVIDIA and HP to enhance capabilities [33][34] Health Care and Monetization - TELUS Health is projected to grow significantly, with a valuation exceeding $5 billion, and potential partnerships to enhance commercial efficacy [40][41] - The integration of acquisitions is expected to yield synergies and improve profitability [40] Future Outlook - The company anticipates strong EBITDA growth driven by health care, technology, and digital initiatives, while managing ARPU challenges [44][48] - TELUS plans to monetize assets, including real estate and copper footprint, to support its deleveraging strategy and maintain dividend commitments [49][50] Capital Expenditure and Financial Strategy - TELUS maintains a capital intensity target of 10%, with a focus on efficient capital management and revenue generation from new investments [39][50] - The company is committed to reducing its Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) to zero by the end of 2027 [50] Additional Insights - TELUS is focused on improving customer service and reducing churn rates, with ongoing investments in digital and AI technologies [5][46] - The company is optimistic about the growth trajectory in health care and technology sectors, which are expected to contribute positively to overall performance [44][45]

Economic Transition - The shift from goods consumption to service consumption is a historical trend observed across economies, driven by economic development, demographic changes, and policy transformations[5] - In Japan, service consumption surpassed goods consumption in 1993, with service spending in 2024 projected to be 1.4 times that of goods consumption[7] - In the U.S., service consumption reached 68.5% of total consumption by 2024, reflecting a significant transition from goods to services[9] Economic Growth and GDP - Service consumption has become a key driver of economic growth, with its share of GDP in the U.S. increasing from 21.4% in 1944 to 46.5% in 2024, a rise of 25.1 percentage points[11] - In China, service consumption accounted for 46.1% of total consumption in 2024, indicating substantial growth potential[10] - The transition to service consumption is closely linked to GDP per capita surpassing $10,000, marking a shift from survival to development-oriented consumption[10] Employment Impact - The growth of service consumption has led to significant job creation, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as education, healthcare, and entertainment[12] - In Japan, service sector employment increased from 10.55 million in 1981 to 17.64 million in 2001, a growth of 67.2%[59] - In the U.S., service sector employment rose from 15.39 million in 1939 to 113.71 million in 2024, an increase of 639%[62] Future Development Areas - Key growth areas for service consumption include healthcare and entertainment in Japan, driven by aging demographics and changing consumer preferences[15] - In the U.S., sectors such as internet services, healthcare, and luxury services are expected to see significant growth due to demographic shifts and increased demand for quality experiences[14] - China's healthcare sector is projected to expand significantly, alongside a shift towards experience-oriented consumption[15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of $1.44 billion, a slight decrease from $1.45 billion in Q3 2024. The medical margin was negative $57 million, compared to negative $58 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $91 million, an improvement from negative $96 million in Q3 2024 [4][17][19] - The company reinitiated its 2025 guidance, expecting revenue between $5.81 billion and $5.83 billion, with a medical margin projected between negative $5 million and negative $15 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranging from negative $270 million to negative $245 million [6][22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Medicare Advantage membership at the end of Q3 2025 was 503,000, down from 525,000 in Q3 2024. ACO REACH membership decreased to 115,000 from 132,000 in the same period [17] - The company experienced a negative impact of $20 million from exited markets during the quarter [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the 2025 risk adjustment scores were lower than expected, impacting revenue by approximately $150 million for the full year. This was primarily driven by one payer in a new market [18] - The company expects to end 2025 with approximately $310 million in cash, including about $65 million held off-balance sheet by ACO entities [23][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing strategic initiatives aimed at improving contract economics, reducing risk, and optimizing cost structures. It anticipates a $30 million reduction in operating expenses for 2026 [16][24] - The company is taking a disciplined approach to payer contracting, which includes reducing Part D exposure and enhancing quality incentives [9][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing several tailwinds such as a 9% benchmark rate increase and better-aligned payer contracts. They believe these factors will drive material improvement in performance [24][25] - The leadership team is actively engaged in improving performance and is committed to enhancing Agilon's position for sustainable value creation [15][29] Other Important Information - The company is currently in the process of searching for a new CEO, with a focus on candidates who align with the company's new strategic direction [15][36] - The company plans to pursue a reverse stock split and seek stockholder approval at the annual general meeting in 2026 [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of ACO REACH changes on EBITDA - Management acknowledged that changes to the ACO REACH program would lead to lower economics but still contribute positively to margins. They are reviewing ACOs to determine better models for 2026 [30][31] Question: Potential market exits and payer contracts - Management confirmed a disciplined approach to contracting, indicating that they would not engage with payers if the economics do not make sense. Any reduction in membership would benefit medical margins and EBITDA [32][33] Question: Update on CEO search - The search for a new CEO is ongoing, with good candidates emerging. Management emphasized active engagement in improving business performance during this transition [35][36] Question: Medical cost trends in Q3 - Management noted that inpatient and Part B oncology drug costs remain high, but overall medical cost trends have restated favorably [36] Question: Cash allocation to ACO REACH entities - The company clarified that there is no minimum cash requirement for ACO REACH entities, but maintaining cash there provides tax efficiencies [37] Question: Changes in provider contracts - Management stated that there are no significant changes to provider contracts, but they are aligning incentives with physician partners to achieve operating savings [45][46] Question: Impact of Humana's focus on benefit stability - Management indicated that they analyze benefit designs from all payers, including Humana, as part of their contracting process [52][53]

Core Insights - The London Company Small Cap Strategy reported a 1.9% appreciation in its small-cap portfolio for Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell 2000 Index which gained 12.4% [1] - The investor letter highlighted Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) as a key stock, noting its strong performance driven by growth in Kaplan Education and Healthcare segments [3] Company Performance - Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) experienced a one-month return of -5.47% but a 52-week gain of 20.50%, with a closing stock price of $1,036.52 and a market capitalization of $4.522 billion as of November 3, 2025 [2] - The company outperformed benchmarks in Q2 due to solid results and potential easing of broadcast TV M&A regulations, which may enhance future monetization opportunities [3] Investment Sentiment - Despite its potential, Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) is not among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 20 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of Q2 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter [4] - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk compared to Graham Holdings Company [4]