浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 小米集团（1810.HK）：汽车毛利率表 现持续强劲，看好公司长期价值成长 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 270,970 | 365,906 | 480,258 | 632,234 | 756,748 | | 同比增速 | (3%) | 35% | 31% | 32% | 20% | | 经调整净利润 | 19,273 | 27,235 | 41,555 | 57,939 | 71,496 | | 同比增速 | 126% | 41% | 53% | 39% | 23% | | 目标 P/E (x) | 90.2 | 63.7 | 41.7 | 29.9 | 24.3 | E=浦银国际预测 资料来源：公司报告、浦银国际 沈岱 首席科技分析师 tony_shen@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6435 黄佳琦 科技分析师 sia_huang@spdbi ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the company maintains strong brand momentum in the mid-term, but requires the release of automotive production capacity and the 2026 new vehicle product cycle to drive growth [1] - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down from 471/674/731 billion to 415/555/686 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52%/34%/24% [1] - The current stock price of 52.55 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 30.1/22.6/18.2 for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the company's non-GAAP net profit was 10.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75%, which was in line with expectations [1] - Mobile business revenue was 45.5 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) declining by 3% and 11% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year respectively, primarily due to increased shipment volume in Africa and intense price competition in overseas markets [1] - IoT revenue reached 38.7 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20%, exceeding previous expectations, mainly driven by large home appliances [1] Group 3 - The automotive and new business segment is expected to achieve profitability in a specific month or quarter in H2 2025 [2] - The company anticipates a decline in main business net profit in Q3 2025, primarily due to rising storage costs and the absence of new product launches, with a projected gross margin drop to 11% [2] - The IoT business is expected to see seasonal revenue decline to around 30 billion, while gross margin is anticipated to improve [2]

电子/消费电子 小米集团-W（01810.HK） 品牌势能仍足，待汽车产能释放及新车周期启动 2025 年 08 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 52.550 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 61.450/17.100 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 13,675.89 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 13,675.89 | | 总股本(亿股) | 260.25 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 260.25 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 36.45 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 小米集团-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2025Q2 业绩有望继续向上，汽车 Yu7 发布仍是催化—港股公司信息更 新报告》-2025.5.29 《2025H1 产业趋势催化持续，往后 AI 能力仍需强化—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.3.19 《汽车上升势头持续，高端化有望提 振主业利润及估值—港股公司信息更 新报告》-2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Xiaomi Group [8] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 116 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2% [5][8] - The company is focusing on its "New Decade Goal," with significant investments in core technologies and a record high of 78 billion CNY in R&D spending in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.2% [5][8] - The automotive segment is expected to see accelerated capacity release in the second half of 2025, with a narrowing of operating losses from 5 billion CNY to 3 billion CNY in Q2 2025 [5][8] - The IoT business continues to show strong growth, with revenue of 387 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.7% [5][8] - The smartphone segment experienced a slight decline in revenue, with Q2 2025 revenue at 455 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [5][8] - The internet services segment reported steady growth, with revenue of 91 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 total revenue was 116 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 22.5% and an adjusted net profit of 108 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 75.4% [5][8] - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to reach 489.9 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit projected at 43.1 billion CNY [8] Automotive Segment - Revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI-related businesses reached 213 billion CNY in Q2 2025, with a gross margin of 26.4% [5][8] - The company plans to enter the European market in 2027, which is expected to enhance its global brand influence [5][8] IoT Segment - The IoT business achieved a record revenue of 387 billion CNY in Q2 2025, driven by strong sales in smart home appliances [5][8] - The gross margin for IoT was 22.5%, reflecting improvements in product mix [5][8] Smartphone Segment - The smartphone business reported revenue of 455 billion CNY in Q2 2025, with a gross margin of 11.5% [5][8] - The company adjusted its annual shipment target to 175 million units, focusing on high-end and global market expansion [5][8] Internet Services - Internet services revenue reached 91 billion CNY in Q2 2025, with a gross margin of 75.4% [6][8] - The global monthly active user count reached 730 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's Q2 2025 financial report shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by its automotive business, IoT, and internet services, despite challenges in its smartphone segment [4][6]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported Q2 revenue of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% [4]. - The automotive business generated 20.6 billion yuan in revenue from the delivery of 81,300 vehicles, with a gross margin of 26.4% [6][9]. - The operating loss in the automotive sector decreased from 500 million yuan in Q1 to 300 million yuan in Q2, marking a 40% improvement [9][12]. Business Segments Smartphone Business - Smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion yuan, accounting for 39.3% of total revenue, but showed a decline of 2.1% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones fell to 1,073 yuan, down 11.3% from the previous quarter [15]. - Despite challenges, Xiaomi maintained a 14.7% market share globally, ranking third, and regained the top position in Southeast Asia with an 18.9% market share [16]. IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue reached 38.7 billion yuan, a 44.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5% [17]. - Internet services generated 9.1 billion yuan, growing 10.1% year-on-year, with a high gross margin of 75.4% [20]. - The IoT segment is becoming a significant profit source, surpassing the smartphone business in gross margin contribution [20]. Cost Management - Xiaomi's overall expense ratio decreased to 13.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control despite entering the automotive sector [22]. - R&D expenses were 7.8 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in the R&D expense ratio due to revenue growth outpacing absolute spending [24]. - The company leveraged shared R&D resources across its product lines, enhancing efficiency [24]. Automotive Business Outlook - Xiaomi's automotive business is close to profitability, with a theoretical net loss of approximately 6,000 yuan per vehicle, indicating that minor adjustments could lead to profitability [11][12]. - The company aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles by the end of the year, with production capacity increasing [12]. - The automotive sector's rapid growth and decreasing losses suggest a potential for achieving quarterly profitability by late 2025 or early 2026 [12].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's Q2 2025 financial report shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by its automotive business and other segments, despite challenges in its smartphone division [6][8]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, while adjusted net profit was 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% [6]. - The automotive business delivered 81,300 vehicles, generating 20.6 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 26.4% [9][15]. Automotive Business Insights - The automotive division's operating loss decreased from 500 million yuan in Q1 to 300 million yuan in Q2, marking a 40% improvement [9][12]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved from 23.2% in Q1 to 26.4% in Q2, indicating effective cost management and scale effects [13][14]. - Xiaomi's automotive business is close to profitability, needing to reduce costs or increase margins by approximately 6,000 yuan per vehicle to break even [16][20]. Smartphone Business Challenges - Smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion yuan, accounting for 39.3% of total revenue, but showed a decline of 2.1% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter [19]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones fell to 1,073 yuan, down 11.3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased competition and a shift to lower-priced models [21]. IoT and Internet Services Growth - IoT and lifestyle product revenue reached 38.7 billion yuan, a 44.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5% [22]. - Internet services revenue was 9.1 billion yuan, growing 10.1% year-on-year, with a high gross margin of 75.4% [23][24]. Cost Management and Efficiency - Xiaomi's overall expense ratio decreased to 13.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing effective cost control despite entering the automotive sector [28]. - The company achieved cost efficiency through scale effects and shared R&D investments across its product lines [29][30]. Future Outlook - With a backlog of over 200,000 orders for the YU7 model, Xiaomi is well-positioned to meet its annual target of 350,000 vehicle deliveries [17]. - The automotive business is expected to achieve quarterly profitability by late 2025 or early 2026, potentially ahead of competitors like Xpeng and NIO [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 65.4, down from the previous HKD 67.8 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 2025 reached RMB 116 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2%. Adjusted net profit grew by 75.4% to RMB 10.8 billion [1][4]. - The overall gross margin for the group was 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.3 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1]. - The automotive business showed strong performance with a gross margin of 26.4%, benefiting from scale effects and a higher proportion of high-end model deliveries [2][3]. Summary by Sections Automotive Business - Q2 2025 saw a record delivery of 81,302 vehicles, with revenue increasing by 14% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 20.6 billion. The gross margin for the automotive segment improved significantly from 15.4% to 26.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company is optimistic about the automotive business's profitability, especially with its high-end strategy, and anticipates potential profitability in upcoming quarters [2][3]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - The smartphone segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 2.1% year-on-year to RMB 45.5 billion and a gross margin contraction to 11.5% [3]. - IoT revenue grew by 44.7% year-on-year to RMB 38.7 billion, driven by high-value smart home appliances, maintaining a strong gross margin of 22.5% [3]. - Internet services continued to show stable growth, with a 10.1% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 9.1 billion and a high gross margin of 75.4% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak global smartphone demand, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 were adjusted downwards by 2.2%, 0.5%, and 0.2%, respectively. However, net profit forecasts were raised by 9.5%, 4.3%, and 7.8% for the same period [4]. - The target price of HKD 65.4 corresponds to a 30x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's strong IoT and AI ecosystem value [4][14]. Financial Metrics - The report projects a revenue increase to RMB 479.9 billion in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 44.3 billion, representing a 62.2% year-on-year growth [9][12]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.7% in 2026, with a projected net profit margin of 9.1% [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) business has become the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the latest quarter, with both Morgan Stanley and UBS emphasizing that EV deliveries will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year [1][5][11]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi's Q2 2025 adjusted net profit reached 10.831 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, marking the highest quarterly profit in history [3]. - Total revenue for Q2 reached 115.956 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [15]. - The company's overall gross margin improved to 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but down 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The EV business showed a gross margin of 26.4%, significantly up by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profit potential [8]. - AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The smartphone business faced challenges with a gross margin of 11.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting intense market competition [10]. Electric Vehicle Business Insights - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation of the second-phase factory [14]. - The average selling price of EVs increased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [11]. - The strong order intake for the YU7 model is expected to drive EV delivery volumes, which will be a key catalyst for stock price growth in the second half of the year [13]. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 62 HKD, indicating an 18% upside potential from the current stock price [1][5]. - The company's diversified business strategy is proving effective, with the rapid development of the EV business opening new growth avenues [17].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the explosive growth of Xiaomi's electric vehicle (EV) business is effectively compensating for the slowdown in its smartphone business, with the ramp-up of production capacity at the Beijing second factory in the second half of the year expected to be a catalyst for the stock price [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 reached 1159.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [9] - The AIoT business revenue was 387 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, surpassing expectations by 18% [9] - The EV business revenue was 213 billion RMB, more than doubling year-on-year and exceeding estimates by 6% [9] - Smartphone business revenue was 455 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 2%, falling short of expectations by 8% [9] - Internet services revenue was 91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, but 5% below expectations [10] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for the company reached 22.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The EV business gross margin was 26.4%, significantly increasing by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability prospects [6] - The AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The smartphone business gross margin was 11.5%, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, due to intense market competition [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The EV business is seen as the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the current quarter, with average selling prices increasing by 6.4% to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [8] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the delivery volume of EVs will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year, especially following strong orders for the YU7 model [8] - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation at the second factory, which requires stable production capacity by the end of Q4 [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, indicating strong growth despite challenges in the smartphone segment [3][4]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi Group's revenue for Q2 2025 reached 116 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [3]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 10.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.4% [3]. - The gross profit for the smartphone segment was 5.22 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 11.5%, down from 12.1% in the previous year [3][4]. - IoT and lifestyle products generated a gross profit of 8.72 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 22.5%, up from 19.7% year-on-year [3]. - Internet services revenue was 6.86 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 75.4%, slightly down from 78.3% [3]. Segment Performance - Smartphone revenue decreased by 2.1% year-on-year to 45.5 billion RMB, attributed to a decline in average selling price (ASP) in overseas markets [4]. - IoT and lifestyle products saw a revenue increase of 44.7% year-on-year, reaching 38.7 billion RMB [4]. - Internet services revenue grew by 10.1% year-on-year to 9.1 billion RMB [4]. - The innovative business segment, including smart electric vehicles and AI, generated 21.3 billion RMB in revenue, with a loss of 300 million RMB [4]. Market Outlook - The smartphone market is expected to experience zero or minimal growth, leading Xiaomi to revise its sales target for the year to approximately 175 million units [5]. - The company aims to optimize product structure and improve ASP in response to market conditions [5]. - Xiaomi's R&D investment for the quarter was 7.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, with an expected total investment of 30 billion RMB for the year [6].