研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈重伊 S0350525010002 chency@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 智能手机与 IoT 业务短期承压，预计 2025Q4 经调整利润同比下滑 ——小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025Q4 前瞻点评 最近一年走势 2026 年 03 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 《小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：持 续"稳健进取"的核心经营策略，盈利再创历史新 高（增持）*消费电子*陈梦竹，陈重伊》—— 2025-08-21 《小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025Q1 财报点评：营 投资要点: 1、主要财务指标前瞻：我们预计小米集团 2025Q4 实现收入 1164 亿元， 同比增长 7%。其中，智能手机业务收入约 452 亿元，同比下滑 12%；IoT 与生活消费产品业务收入约 233 亿元，同比下滑 25%；智能电动汽车收 入约 380 亿元，同比增长 133%；互联网服务收入约 98 亿元，同比增长 5%。利润方面，预计小米集团 20 ...

同壁财经讯，企查查数据显示，根据《国家开发银行2025年服务器存储设备及华为云许可采购项目（对 象存储设备）中标结果公示》，北京先进数通信息技术股份公司于2026年2月24日公告中标国家开发银 行采购项目，中标金额为385.00万元。 同壁财经小贴士： 先进数通（300541.SZ）2024年营业收入为22.20亿元，营业收入增长率为-18.92%，归属母公司净利润 为0.38亿元，归属母公司净利润增长率为-75.64%，净资产收益率为2.35%。 2025年上半年公司营业收入为13.80亿元，营业收入增长率为33.06%，归属母公司净利润为0.63亿元， 归属母公司净利润增长率为694.25%。 2025年上半年公司营业收入为13.80亿元，营业收入增长率为33.06%，归属母公司净利润为0.63亿元， 归属母公司净利润增长率为694.25%。 目前公司属于信息技术行业，主要产品类型为互联网服务，2024年报主营构成为IT基础设施建 设:65.07%;软件解决方案:23.46%;IT运行维护服务:11.47%。 同壁财经讯，企查查数据显示，根据《国家开发银行2025年服务器存储设备及华为云许可采购项目（对 ...

Group 1 - Company Zhongke Jincai Technology Co., Ltd. (002657.SZ) won a procurement project from Yinpai Battery Technology Co., Ltd. with a bid amount of 2.7968 million yuan [1] - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was 1.167 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.46%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -55 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 48.84% [2][3] - For the first half of 2025, the company's operating revenue reached 345 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14.36%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -85 million yuan, showing a decline of 71.51% [2][3] Group 2 - The company operates in the information technology industry, offering products such as internet services, software outsourcing services, system integration services, industry-specific software, operation platform systems, and professional consulting services [2][3] - The main business composition for 2024 includes bank imaging solutions (54.83%), data center comprehensive services (25.48%), artificial intelligence comprehensive services (17.8%), and other businesses (1.89%) [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of Chinese cities, highlighting the rapid urbanization and the emergence of new economic centers, while ranking the development potential of 337 cities in China, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and others leading the list [2]. Group 1: Beijing - Beijing is positioned as the political, cultural, international exchange, and technological innovation center of China, with a GDP exceeding 4.1 trillion yuan in 2022, making it the second-largest city after Shanghai [9][10]. - The service sector accounts for 84% of Beijing's economy, with finance, headquarters economy, and technological innovation as key pillars [10]. - Future plans include transforming Beijing into a world-class harmonious city while optimizing population distribution to enhance urban vitality [11][13]. Group 2: Shanghai - Shanghai has established itself as an international economic center, with a GDP of approximately 4.5 trillion yuan in 2022, and aims to rival New York in global economic influence [16][24]. - The city’s industrial structure is supported by the automotive, electronics, and financial sectors, with finance contributing 19.3% to the GDP [17][19]. - Shanghai plans to continue its open policies and develop into a globally competitive city, enhancing the Yangtze River Delta region [24]. Group 3: Shenzhen - Shenzhen's GDP surpassed 3.2 trillion yuan in 2022, marking it as the third-largest city in China, with a significant annual population increase of around 600,000 [25][26]. - The city is recognized as a leading innovation hub, with strategic emerging industries accounting for over 41% of its GDP [26]. - Future initiatives focus on enhancing collaboration within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area to solidify its status as a global innovation city [29]. Group 4: Guangzhou - Guangzhou's GDP reached approximately 2.9 trillion yuan in 2022, ranking fifth nationally, with a strong manufacturing base in automotive and electronics [30][31]. - The city faces challenges in innovation capacity and financial sector development, with financial services contributing only 9.2% to the GDP [33]. - Future goals include enhancing its role as a national center city and participating in global economic cooperation [34]. Group 5: Hangzhou - Hangzhou's economy has shown robust growth, with a GDP of around 1.9 trillion yuan in 2022, driven by a vibrant private and digital economy [36][37]. - The city is recognized for its strong digital economy, with core digital industries contributing 27.1% to the GDP [37]. - Plans for the future include improving transportation infrastructure and fostering a more open and innovative business environment [41][42]. Group 6: Chengdu - Chengdu's GDP exceeded 2 trillion yuan in 2022, accounting for 36.7% of Sichuan province's economy, and it is recognized as a key economic hub in Western China [43][44]. - The electronics sector is a major contributor, with a significant portion of the industrial output [44]. - Future strategies involve enhancing its role as a national center city and collaborating with Chongqing to develop the Western economic highland [49]. Group 7: Nanjing - Nanjing's GDP approached 1.7 trillion yuan in 2022, with a per capita GDP of 179,000 yuan, ranking fifth among major cities [50][51]. - The city is focusing on developing its automotive, steel, electronics, and petrochemical industries while nurturing emerging sectors [51]. - Future aspirations include becoming an "innovation city" and enhancing its influence in the Yangtze River Delta region [54]. Group 8: Suzhou - Suzhou's GDP reached nearly 2.4 trillion yuan in 2022, making it the top city among prefecture-level cities in China [56]. - The city is recognized as a global industrial powerhouse, with significant contributions from electronics and manufacturing sectors [56]. - Future plans emphasize its role in the Yangtze River Delta urban cluster and advancing towards a high-tech manufacturing base [59].

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of DRAM and NAND storage are expected to negatively impact global consumer electronics demand and brand gross margins, leading to a forecasted decline in Xiaomi's overall gross margin and net profit in Q4 2025 [1][2]. Business Segments Summary Automotive Business - In Q4 2025, Xiaomi's automotive revenue is projected to reach 37.2 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 123% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28% [1][3]. - The gross margin for the automotive segment is expected to be around 21.6%, influenced by a decrease in the delivery proportion of the SU7 Ultra model [3]. - For 2026, the company aims to deliver 650,000 vehicles, exceeding its target of 550,000 units, supported by new model launches [2][3]. Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone shipment is expected to decline to 37.8 million units in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [1][4]. - The gross margin for smartphones is anticipated to drop by 2.6 percentage points to approximately 8.5% due to rising memory prices [1][4]. - For 2026, smartphone shipments are projected to decrease by 10% to 148 million units, but the average selling price (ASP) is expected to improve by about 5% due to product mix enhancements [4]. IoT and Internet Business - The IoT segment's revenue in Q4 2025 is estimated to be around 25.2 billion RMB, with a gross margin expected to remain high at 22.2% despite a year-on-year decline of 19% due to subsidy reductions [1][4]. - Internet business revenue is projected to grow by 2% to 9.5 billion RMB, maintaining a gross margin of 76.9% [1][4]. - For FY26, IoT revenue is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 130.5 billion RMB, driven mainly by overseas demand [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2027 by 3.1%, 9.5%, and 11.5%, respectively, and has also reduced its Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period by 9.1%, 21.4%, and 19.4% [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 47 HKD from 53.8 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, corresponding to a 29 times PE for 2026 [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 47.00, down from the previous HKD 53.8 [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the rising prices of DRAM and NAND storage are expected to negatively impact the global demand for consumer electronics and brand gross margins. Despite this, the company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% year-on-year in 4Q25, driven by the delivery of 140,000 vehicles [1][2]. - The automotive business is showing significant growth, with expected revenue of RMB 37.2 billion in 4Q25, representing a 123% year-on-year increase. However, the gross margin for the automotive segment is anticipated to fluctuate due to the changing delivery mix [3][4]. - The smartphone segment is facing challenges, with a projected decline in shipments to 37.8 million units in 4Q25, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a gross margin expected to drop to approximately 8.5% [1][4]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment is expected to see a revenue decline of 19% year-on-year to RMB 25.2 billion, while maintaining a high gross margin of 22.2% [1][4]. - The Internet services revenue is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year to RMB 9.5 billion, with a stable gross margin of 76.9% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Automotive and New Business - The company is expected to deliver approximately 140,000 vehicles in 4Q25, generating revenue of RMB 37.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.2%. The gross margin for the automotive segment is projected to be around 21.6% [3][4]. - For 2026, the company aims to deliver 650,000 vehicles, exceeding its initial target of 550,000 units, supported by new model launches [2][3]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet - The global smartphone market is projected to see a decline in shipments, with the company's smartphone shipments expected to decrease by 10% year-on-year to 148 million units in 2026. The average selling price (ASP) is anticipated to increase by approximately 5% due to product mix improvements [4][5]. - The IoT business is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to RMB 130.5 billion, driven primarily by overseas demand [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards by 3.1%, 9.5%, and 11.5%, respectively. The Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have also been reduced by 9.1%, 21.4%, and 19.4% [5][10]. - The target price of HKD 47 corresponds to a 29x PE ratio based on the 2026 earnings forecast [5][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810 HK) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 47.00 [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the rising prices of DRAM and NAND storage are negatively impacting the gross margins of consumer electronics, including Xiaomi's products. Despite this, Xiaomi's revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year in 4Q25, driven by the delivery of 140,000 vehicles [1][2]. - The automotive business is showing significant growth, with expected revenue of RMB 37.2 billion in 4Q25, representing a 123% year-on-year increase. The gross margin for this segment is projected to be around 21.6% [1][3]. - The smartphone segment is facing challenges, with expected shipments declining to 37.8 million units in 4Q25, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a gross margin drop to approximately 8.5% [1][4]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment is anticipated to see a revenue decline of 19% year-on-year to RMB 25.2 billion, while maintaining a high gross margin of 22.2% [1][4]. - The Internet services revenue is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year to RMB 9.5 billion, with a stable gross margin of 76.9% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Automotive and New Business - In 4Q25, Xiaomi's automotive deliveries are expected to reach approximately 140,000 units, generating revenue of RMB 37.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.2%. The gross margin for the automotive segment may decline to around 21.6% due to changes in model delivery proportions [3]. - For 2026, the company aims to deliver 650,000 vehicles, exceeding its initial target of 550,000 units, with an anticipated adjusted gross margin of 23.6% [3]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet - The global smartphone market is projected to see a slight decline in shipments, with Xiaomi's expected to drop to 37.8 million units in 4Q25, resulting in a gross margin decrease to 8.5% [4]. - The IoT business is forecasted to generate approximately RMB 25.2 billion in revenue for 4Q25, with a gross margin of 22.2% [4]. - Internet services are expected to yield RMB 9.5 billion in revenue, maintaining a gross margin of 76.9% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward by 3.1%, 9.5%, and 11.5% respectively, with non-GAAP net profit estimates reduced by 9.1%, 21.4%, and 19.4% [5]. - The target price has been revised to HKD 47.00, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, corresponding to a 29x PE ratio for 2026 [5][19].

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding a 32% tax rate on the internet industry are unfounded and lack a basis in the current tax system, which does not allow for such arbitrary adjustments [3][8]. Group 1: Tax Rumors and Market Impact - Since February 2, rumors about increased taxes in the internet sector have caused significant volatility in the tech sector, despite the illogical nature of these claims [1]. - Previous instances of tax rumors have led to market downturns, such as the 2021 speculation about the cancellation of a 10% preferential tax rate for internet companies [5][6]. Group 2: Tax Rate Structure - The current VAT rates in China are 6%, 9%, and 13%, with no provision for a 32% rate, which is incompatible with the existing tax framework [3][4]. - The nature of the internet gaming industry, characterized by high human resource costs and low deductibility of input taxes, justifies a lower VAT rate [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Stability and Economic Growth - The stability of tax laws is crucial for economic foundations, and any changes to tax rates require extensive negotiation and cannot be made arbitrarily [8]. - The overarching goal of China's macroeconomic policy is to maintain growth, which necessitates consistent policies that support the digital economy and technology sectors [8][11]. Group 4: Role of Technology in Economic Development - The internet and gaming sectors are increasingly recognized as vital components of technological advancement, contributing to various fields, including military training and AI development [9][11]. - Continuous investment in AI and other cutting-edge technologies by internet companies indicates that significant policy adjustments are unlikely to occur suddenly [11].

Group 1 - Company Shenzhen Faben Information Technology Co., Ltd. won a procurement project from China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation Shenzhen Branch with a bid amount of 3.6333 million yuan [1] - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was 4.321 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.22%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 131 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.90% [2][3] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 2.315 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.95%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 58 million yuan, showing a decline of 21.85% [2][3] Group 2 - The company operates in the information technology industry, primarily offering internet services [2][3] - The main composition of the company's 2024 revenue includes 78.71% from digital general technology services, 20.5% from digital innovation technology services, and 0.79% from other services [2][3]

Market Overview - Technology stocks experienced a significant decline, impacting major indices, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.22% after a drop of 1.3% during the day [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.07%, having previously dropped by 3.4% [1][2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly turned negative, while gold stocks led a rebound in the metals sector [2] - Heavy machinery stocks continued to rise, and airline stocks showed strength [2] - Mobile gaming stocks faced the largest declines, with AI application concept stocks, lithium battery stocks, and certain financial and automotive stocks also underperforming [2][4] Specific Stock Movements - Major tech stocks like Tencent Holdings and Baidu Group saw declines of 2.92% and 3.61% respectively, with Tencent's market cap at 5.3 trillion [5] - Mobile gaming stocks such as Duolingo and Tencent faced significant drops, with Duolingo down over 6% [5][6] - Gold and precious metals stocks rebounded, with companies like WanGuo Gold Group rising over 13% [6][7] Investment Insights - The education sector showed positive momentum, with companies like Yinxing Education and New Oriental seeing gains of over 8% and 6% respectively, driven by policy improvements and the integration of AI in education [7][8] - Steel stocks also performed well, with Asia Pacific Resources rising over 10% [9] Capital Flows - Net inflows from southbound funds amounted to 9.52 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong stocks [10] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current global dollar cycle is peaking, with a favorable revaluation window for Chinese equity assets, recommending a focus on manufacturing core assets and sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [11]