机构：华泰证券 研究员：黄乐平/陈旭东/于可熠 小米发布3Q25 业绩，总收入同比增长22%到1,131 亿元，符合我们此前预期；经调整净利润同比增长 80.9%至人民币113.1 亿元，超彭博一致预期12.6%。通过这次业绩会，我们认为，存储超级周期是影响 小米2026 年股价和业绩表现的重要变量。和其他手机厂商相比，小米在1）手机出货量市场规模（全球 第三）、2）高端手机占比、3）家电等受存储影响较小的非手机业务的规模上具有明显优势，抗行业周 期能力较强。我们下调公司2026/2027 年盈利预测，反映存储涨价对手机业务的影响，继续看好公司在 智能电动车和智能家电的发展机遇。我们下调公司目标价至53.8 港币（前值：65.4 港币），包含非汽车 （34.43 港币），汽车（19.35 港币）。维持"买入"评级。 智能手机/IoT/互联网业务：产品高端化战略部分抵消存储涨价影响三季度，1）公司智能手机出货量 4330 万台（+0.5%yoy），全球市场份额13.6%（同比基本持平），毛利率同比-0.6pp 至11.1%，在存储 涨价大背景下显示韧性。2）IoT 业务收入+5.6%yoy 至276 亿元，毛利 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi Auto has officially produced its 500,000th vehicle, marking a significant milestone in the company's automotive journey, achieved in just over 1 year and 7 months since the first vehicle was produced [1][4] - The achievement signifies the validation of Xiaomi Auto's capabilities across research, manufacturing, sales, delivery, and service, indicating a new phase of scalability for the company [4] Company Development - Xiaomi announced its entry into the automotive industry in March 2021, with CEO Lei Jun committing his reputation to the project, describing it as his last major entrepreneurial venture [4] - The company has launched two models: the Xiaomi SU7, set to debut on March 28, 2024, priced between 215,900 to 299,900 RMB, and the Xiaomi YU7, which was launched on June 26, 2023, priced between 253,500 to 329,900 RMB [6] Sales Performance - As of October 2023, Xiaomi Auto has sold a total of 315,400 vehicles, with the SU7 being the best-selling large vehicle of the year at 234,500 units, and the YU7 at 80,900 units [11] - The company aims to deliver 350,000 new vehicles by the end of 2023, a target that is expected to be met ahead of schedule [11] Future Strategy - Lei Jun emphasized that the production of the 500,000th vehicle is just a new starting point for Xiaomi Auto, with a focus on safety, delivery, technological innovation, and the integration of AI and smart manufacturing [12]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group is actively engaging in share buybacks and stock incentives to enhance shareholder value and retain talent, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future growth prospects [3][5]. Group 1: Share Buyback and Stock Incentives - On November 20, Xiaomi announced a buyback of 13.5 million Class B shares for a total of HKD 507.8 million, at a price of HKD 38.1 per share [1]. - This buyback is part of a broader strategy, with Xiaomi having repurchased approximately 15.4 million shares totaling around HKD 1.54 billion in the first three quarters of the year [3]. - Xiaomi also announced a stock incentive plan rewarding 3,334 selected participants with a total of 29.37 million shares, valued at approximately HKD 1.14 billion based on the closing price of HKD 38.82 per share on November 19 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Business Segments - Xiaomi's third-quarter revenue exceeded HKD 100 billion for the fourth consecutive quarter, with the automotive segment achieving profitability for the first time [3]. - The revenue from the smart electric vehicle and AI segments reached HKD 29 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of over 199%, with smart electric vehicle revenue at HKD 28.3 billion [3]. - In the first three quarters, Xiaomi delivered over 260,000 vehicles, with a target of 350,000 for the year, despite potential challenges in 2024 due to reduced tax incentives and increased competition [4]. Group 3: Traditional Business and R&D Investment - Xiaomi's traditional business remains robust, with smartphone and AIoT revenue at HKD 84.1 billion in Q3, and smartphone revenue at HKD 46 billion, maintaining a top-three global position for 21 consecutive quarters [4]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment generated HKD 27.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, while internet services revenue grew by 10.8% to HKD 9.4 billion [4]. - R&D expenditure reached HKD 9.1 billion in Q3, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, with total R&D investment for the first three quarters nearing last year's total [4].

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, with adjusted net profit reaching 11.3 billion yuan, up 81%, marking a historical high [1][4] - The company successfully transitioned between old and new growth engines, with innovative businesses like smart electric vehicles and AI achieving profitability for the first time in a single quarter, while the traditional smartphone business faced pressure due to rising memory costs [1][4] Financial Performance - The automotive business delivered 108,796 vehicles in Q3, with a total of 265,967 vehicles delivered in the first three quarters, and a monthly delivery of over 40,000 units in October, achieving profitability with a net profit of 6,434 yuan per vehicle sold [4][6] - The smartphone business faced challenges, with global shipments of 43.3 million units and revenue of 45.969 billion yuan, leading to a decline in gross margin to 11.1% due to rising costs of core components [6][5] Business Segmentation - Internet services generated revenue of 9.4 billion yuan in Q3, a 10.8% increase, primarily driven by strong advertising performance [7] - IoT business revenue reached 27.6 billion yuan, maintaining year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, with a gross margin of 23.9% [9][8] R&D and Long-term Strategy - R&D expenditure in Q3 amounted to 9.1 billion yuan, a 52.1% increase, with total R&D investment for the first three quarters nearing last year's total, expected to exceed 30 billion yuan for the year [11][12] - The company is focusing on core technologies and frontier fields, with capital expenditure for the first three quarters at 13 billion yuan, reflecting long-term strategic investments [12][10] Market Outlook and Challenges - Despite achieving profitability in the automotive sector, the company anticipates challenges in 2026 due to reduced purchase tax subsidies and intensified competition [12] - The smartphone business continues to face long-term pressure from rising memory costs, while the IoT sector is experiencing a transitional phase in the domestic appliance market [12][6]

面对这"一半海水，一半火焰"的复杂局面，小米集团合伙人兼总裁卢伟冰在业绩会上对21世纪经济报道记者表示："环境因素虽不可控，但我们可以通过 持续的能力建设增强韧性。" 11月18日晚，小米集团召开2025年第三季度业绩发布媒体电话会。财报显示，集团当期总营收为1131亿元，同比增长22.3%；经调整净利润达113亿元，同 比增长81%，创历史新高。 这份财报传递出小米集团新旧增长引擎成功交替的关键信号。本季度，以智能电动汽车和AI为代表的创新业务首次实现单季度盈利，成为拉动增长的新 核心引擎；而传统支柱智能手机业务，则因行业性内存成本的周期性上涨而承压。 他进一步指出，本轮内存价格上涨始于今年第一季度，并延续至三、四季度。"在这一轮中国产业周期的波动中，小米的业绩和经营表现出了更强的稳定 性。我们正按照年初制定的策略稳步推进各项工作。" 汽车业务首次盈利，雷军最新发声 三季度小米业绩呈现出明显的"新旧业务分化"。智能电动汽车及AI等创新业务首次实现单季度盈利，成为拉动整体增长的核心引擎；而智能手机业务虽维 持规模优势，却因供应链成本上涨导致毛利率承压。 在新业务方面，三季度小米汽车交付新车108796辆，前三 ...

记者丨雷晨 在新业务方面， 三季度小米汽车交付新车108796辆，前三季度累计交付265967辆。10月单月交付量突破4万辆，预计本周内可完成 全年35万辆的交付目标。 尤为关键的是， 这是小米汽车业务首次实现盈利。 财报显示，小米汽车智能电动汽车及AI等创新业务从 第二季度的3亿元的经营亏损成功扭亏，经营收益为7亿元， 平均每卖1台车净赚6434元。 卢伟冰强调："几个季度前我们还在探索 单月或单车型盈利，如今实现单季度盈利，超出预期，验证了小米汽车的产品力与商业模式可行性。" 编辑丨包芳鸣 11月18日晚，小米集团召开2025年第三季度业绩发布媒体电话会。财报显示，集团当期总营收为1131亿元，同比增长22.3%；经调 整净利润达113亿元，同比增长81%，创历史新高。 这份财报传递出小米集团新旧增长引擎成功交替的关键信号。本季度，以智能电动汽车和AI为代表的创新业务首次实现单季度盈 利，成为拉动增长的新核心引擎；而传统支柱智能手机业务，则因行业性内存成本的周期性上涨而承压。 面对这"一半海水，一半火焰"的复杂局面，小米集团合伙人兼总裁卢伟冰在业绩会上对21世纪经济报道记者表示："环境因素虽不可 控，但我 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 53.5 per share, indicating a potential upside of 31.2% from the recent closing price of HKD 40.78 [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in Q3 2025, driven by effective execution of its "high-end, full ecosystem, and globalization" strategy, despite facing challenges from rising storage costs [5][6]. - The automotive segment reported its first profit in Q3 2025, with revenue growing by 199.2% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall growth [2]. - The smartphone segment showed resilience with a slight revenue decline of 3.1%, while maintaining a strong market share in the high-end segment [3]. - Internet services continued to grow steadily, with revenue reaching a historical high, supported by increased advertising income and user engagement [4]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 22.3% year-on-year to HKD 1131.2 billion, slightly above market expectations [1]. - Gross margin was reported at 22.9%, exceeding expectations, while adjusted net profit surged by 80.9% to HKD 113.1 billion [1]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated revenue of HKD 290.1 billion in Q3 2025, accounting for 25.6% of total revenue, with a significant year-on-year growth of 199.2% [2]. - The company delivered 109,000 new vehicles in the quarter, marking a 173.4% increase year-on-year, with the XiaomiYU7 series leading domestic SUV sales [2]. Smartphone and AIoT - The smartphone division reported revenue of HKD 460.0 billion, a slight decline of 3.1%, with a shipment of 43.3 million units, reflecting a 0.5% increase [3]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment achieved revenue of HKD 276.0 billion, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.9% [3]. Internet Services - Internet services revenue reached HKD 94.0 billion, a 10.8% increase year-on-year, with advertising revenue growing by 17.4% [4]. - The global monthly active users reached 741.7 million, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase, indicating improved user engagement and monetization [4].

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan for four consecutive quarters, with its automotive business achieving profitability for the first time in a single quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue from mobile and AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) reached 84.1 billion yuan, with smartphone revenue at 46 billion yuan, showing a continuous growth in shipment volume for nine consecutive quarters and maintaining a top-three position globally for 21 quarters [1] - IoT and consumer products generated 27.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [1] - Internet services revenue was 9.4 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with overseas internet revenue hitting a record high of 3.3 billion yuan [1] - The innovative business segment, including smart electric vehicles and AI, reported revenue of 29 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 199%, with smart electric vehicle revenue at 28.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Automotive Business - Xiaomi's automotive division achieved a single-quarter operating profit of 700 million yuan for the first time [1] - Cumulative deliveries of Xiaomi vehicles exceeded 260,000 units in the first three quarters, with recent monthly deliveries surpassing 40,000 units in September and October [1] - The company aims to meet its annual delivery target of 350,000 units by the end of the week, although it anticipates a potential decline in gross margin next year due to industry-wide challenges [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - Xiaomi's high-end strategy is advancing, with significant market share gains in the high-end smartphone segment, achieving an 18.9% market share in the 4,000 to 6,000 yuan price range in mainland China, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]

小米集团于北京时间 2025 年 11 月 18 日晚的港股盘后发布了 2025 年第三季度财报（截止 2025 年 9 月），要点如下： 1.整体业绩：小米集团收入 1131 亿，同比增长 22.3%，其中传统业务（手机 x AIoT）收入同比仅仅增长 1.6%，本季度的增长主要来自于汽车业务的带 动。 毛利率提升至 22.9% 的相对高位，主要是受到了汽车业务占比提升带来的结构性支撑，而手机业务的毛利率受竞争加剧影响有所下滑。 2.汽车业务：小米集团本季度汽车相关收入 290 亿元，基本符合预期。其中公司本季度汽车出货量 10.9 万台，单车均价进一步提升至 26 万元。主要是受 价格相对较高的 YU7 出货增加，结构性带动汽车均价的提升。 本季度汽车业务毛利率继续提升至 25.5%，市场预期（25.6%）。不过环比上季度小幅下滑，主要是高毛利率的 SU7 Ultra 占比减少。 海豚君测算本季度小米汽车业务核心经营利润为 6.8 亿元（财报中披露的 11 亿，剔除了 4 亿元的股权激励相关费用），首次实现盈利。 3.手机：460 亿，同比下滑 3.1%，符合市场预期 458 亿。其中小米手机本季度出货量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 53.8, down from HKD 65.4 [5][13]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's Q3 2025 performance showed a total revenue increase of 22% year-on-year to RMB 113.1 billion, aligning with expectations, while adjusted net profit surged by 80.9% to RMB 11.31 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 12.6% [1][5]. - The report highlights that the storage super cycle is a significant variable affecting Xiaomi's stock price and performance in 2026. Compared to other smartphone manufacturers, Xiaomi has advantages in smartphone shipment volume (third globally), high-end smartphone ratio, and a robust non-mobile business that is less impacted by storage costs [1][2]. - The report anticipates that storage price increases will affect Xiaomi's smartphone shipment volume, product pricing, and gross margins, leading to a downward revision of the 2026 smartphone shipment forecast to 165 million units from 182 million units, and gross margin to 10.7% from 12% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - In Q3, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units (+0.5% YoY), maintaining a global market share of 13.6%. Gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1% amid rising storage costs [2]. - IoT business revenue grew by 5.6% YoY to RMB 27.6 billion, with gross margin improving by 1.4 percentage points to 23.9% [2]. - Internet business revenue increased by 10.8% YoY to RMB 9.4 billion, maintaining a high gross margin of 76.9% [2]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment began to turn profitable in Q3 2025, with deliveries reaching a record high of 109,000 units. Revenue increased by 37% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 25.9 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5%, up 8.4 percentage points YoY [2]. - The report maintains a 2026 automotive shipment forecast of 700,000 units, with expectations for continued profitability and growth driven by the company's high-end strategy and capacity ramp-up [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 0.3%/2.3%/1.9% and non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 1.6%/7.6%/4.3% to RMB 43.4 billion, RMB 48.2 billion, and RMB 62.4 billion respectively [3][9]. - Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, the target price is set at HKD 53.8, corresponding to a 27x PE for 2026 [3][13].