Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) indicates a strong upward trend, driven by significant inflows and a favorable macroeconomic environment for the sector [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of January 23, 2026, the non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) rose by 2.33%, with a turnover of 3.44% and a transaction volume of 1.284 billion yuan [1]. - The underlying index, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, saw notable gains in constituent stocks, including silver up by 9.97% and Tongling Nonferrous Metals up by 9.78% [1]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Market Trends - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 14 days [2]. - According to the public fund quarterly report, there has been a significant increase in the allocation to the non-ferrous metals sector by active equity funds, indicating a positive outlook for this segment [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global resource market is undergoing a "valuation reassessment" due to multiple factors, with expectations for a macroeconomic policy alignment between China and the U.S. in 2026 [2]. - New demand from AI data centers and renewable energy is emerging, while long-term capital expenditure in global mining remains insufficient, creating supply constraints [2]. Group 4: Precious Metals Outlook - Precious metals are experiencing a resurgence, with gold and silver reaching new historical highs, and spot gold surpassing 4,950 USD per ounce [2]. - The current economic data from the U.S. shows stability, and the expectation of continued monetary easing supports the case for precious metals as a favorable investment opportunity [2]. Group 5: Index Composition - The Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index comprises 50 listed companies selected from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, among others [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities believes that by 2025, major global economies will enter a phase of substantial policy adjustments and collisions, increasing the risk of global supply chain disruptions, prioritizing "security" over "cost" and continuing a trend of weak global economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that the current commodity supercycle is not yet halfway through, differing from previous cycles driven by infrastructure and real estate, as it must consider the backdrop of "great power competition," which will extend the cycle [1] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the dynamics of the global economy will be influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply chain restructuring [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The green industrial revolution and the era of electricity consumption are creating significant investment opportunities across various industries, including electric vehicles, energy storage, solid-state technology, humanoid robots, and AI [1] - Metals are identified as the core carriers of energy transition and industrial transformation, entering a golden cycle of demand reconstruction and value reassessment [1] Group 3: Metal Demand and Supply - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption and strategic autonomy, while long-term supply shortages at the mining level are anticipated [1] - The report highlights that a weaker dollar will lead to rising commodity prices and frequent disruptions in metal supply, maintaining a bullish outlook on the metal market [1] - Key areas of focus include de-dollarization, the "anti-involution" process, and supply chain reconstruction [1]