Core Viewpoint - The total quota for the third-generation refrigerants in China is set at 802,000 tons for 2026, reflecting an increase of 3,050 tons compared to 2025, with no new allocations for mainstream types such as R32, R125, and R134a, which can only gain increments through quota conversion [1] Industry Overview - The third-generation refrigerant industry is highly concentrated, with the top six companies controlling over 90% of the market share [1] - Supply-side constraints for third-generation refrigerants are expected to persist into 2026, with potential tightening of supply for R32, R134a, and R125 [1] Demand Drivers - Strong demand is driven by the growth in new energy vehicles, air conditioning, and foreign trade, leading to a sustained increase in industry prosperity [1] - The dual opportunities from rising prices of third-generation refrigerants and the iteration of fourth-generation technologies are highlighted as key areas for investment [1] Investment Focus - Emphasis is placed on focusing on industry leaders with advanced patents and capacity layouts [1] - Companies related to third-generation refrigerants are expected to benefit significantly from the current market dynamics [1]

中信证券发布研报称，制冷剂行业正处于配额管理的政策约束期，供需格局持续趋紧驱动价格进入长景 气通道，同时四代技术迭代已拉开序幕，建议把握政策与技术双轮驱动下，三代制冷剂价格上行与四代 技术迭代的双重机遇。在此背景下，聚焦行业龙头，专利与产能布局同步领先;同时三代制冷剂相关企 业有望显著受益。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2026年配额出台，三代制冷剂供给侧约束持续，涨价逻辑不改。 2026年我国三代制冷剂总配额80.2万吨，较2025年增发3050吨，其中主流品类R32、R125、R134a等未 见增发，仅可通过配额转换获取增量。三代制冷剂行业份额高度集中，前六大企业掌控超90%份额。由 于性能及技术原因，第三代制冷剂仍是无法被替代的市场主力。在需求持续增长，而供给受配额政策严 格限制的背景下，第三代制冷剂供需将维持紧平衡，且缺口将持续扩大，带动行业景气度持续上行;R32 作为最主要的品种有望持续发力，车载领域的R134a、混配方向的R125需求短期内或将被快速拉动。 汽车板块稳增长及新能源车快速推广下，R134a供需有望进一步趋紧。 根据《热泵型热管理系统整车制冷剂充注量标定方法研究》(潘乐燕、王天英、牛凤仙等 ...