Core Viewpoint - The total quota for the third-generation refrigerants in China is set at 802,000 tons for 2026, reflecting an increase of 3,050 tons compared to 2025, with no new allocations for mainstream types such as R32, R125, and R134a, which can only gain increments through quota conversion [1] Industry Overview - The third-generation refrigerant industry is highly concentrated, with the top six companies controlling over 90% of the market share [1] - Supply-side constraints for third-generation refrigerants are expected to persist into 2026, with potential tightening of supply for R32, R134a, and R125 [1] Demand Drivers - Strong demand is driven by the growth in new energy vehicles, air conditioning, and foreign trade, leading to a sustained increase in industry prosperity [1] - The dual opportunities from rising prices of third-generation refrigerants and the iteration of fourth-generation technologies are highlighted as key areas for investment [1] Investment Focus - Emphasis is placed on focusing on industry leaders with advanced patents and capacity layouts [1] - Companies related to third-generation refrigerants are expected to benefit significantly from the current market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The refrigerant industry is currently under quota management, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance that drives prices into a long-term upward trend [1][2] - The total quota for third-generation refrigerants in China will be 802,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 3,050 tons from 2025, with major products like R32, R125, and R134a not seeing any increase in quotas [2] - The third-generation refrigerant market is highly concentrated, with the top six companies controlling over 90% of the market share, and due to performance and technical reasons, it remains irreplaceable [2] Group 2 - The demand for R134a in the automotive sector is expected to tighten further due to stable growth in the automotive sector and the rapid promotion of new energy vehicles [2][3] - The refrigerant charge amount for new energy vehicles is approximately 1,100g per vehicle, nearly a 100% increase compared to traditional gasoline vehicles, which is expected to stimulate production and sales in 2026-2027 [3] - R125, as a core component of R410A, is anticipated to see short-term demand growth due to its high GWP value and the conversion of quotas to more cost-effective low-GWP products [4]