基础化工 行业周报（20250714-0720） 同步大市-A(维持) 政策将助推化工供给侧优化，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工 2025 年 7 月 23 日 行业研究/行业周报 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 600309.SH 万华化学 买入-B 600426.SH 华鲁恒升 买入-B 600160.SH 巨化股份 买入-B 600378.SH 昊华科技 买入-B "新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方案"即将出台，产能结构优化加速， 建议关注化工行业周期复苏与供给侧优化赛道。工信部总工程师谢少锋在 7 月 18 日国新办新闻发布会上表示，钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点 行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能。我们认为供给侧优化需聚焦"成本绝对优势"或"技 术绝对稀缺"的龙头企业。建议关注：MDI 和 TDI 龙头万华化学，技术壁垒 与全产业链优势驱动高端材料国产替代，穿越周期成长；低成本煤化工龙头 华鲁恒升，成本控制极致化与高端新材料转型；三代制冷剂全球龙头巨化股 份，配额锁定供给，需求回暖带动高景气；高端氟材料龙头昊华科技，氟化 工与特品驱动成长；钛白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a performance explosion, with several companies forecasting significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Juhua Co. expects a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [3]. - Sanmei Co. anticipates a profit of 948 million to 1.042 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 146.97% to 171.67% [3]. - Yonghe Co. and Dongyangguang expect profits of 255 million to 280 million yuan and 583 million to 663 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 126.3% to 148.49% and 157.48% to 192.81% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The core driver of profit growth is the significant increase in fluorinated refrigerant prices, influenced by reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and strong downstream demand for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) [3][4]. - As of July 8, prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 3.92%, 0%, and 2.06% respectively compared to the previous month, with notable year-to-date increases [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The downstream applications of refrigerants are concentrated in air conditioning, automotive air conditioning, and refrigeration, with domestic air conditioning production reaching 135 million units from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.74% [4]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued quotas for hydrofluorocarbons for 2025, further regulating supply and laying a foundation for high industry prosperity [4]. Group 4: Company Strategies - Dongyangguang achieved record high profits in the first half of the year, leveraging its quota advantage in third-generation refrigerants and a complete chlorofluorocarbon industrial chain to convert pricing power into performance growth [4]. - The company is accelerating its layout in fourth-generation refrigerants, establishing a technology hierarchy of "one generation leading, one generation reserving" [4]. - In the electronic components sector, Dongyangguang has built an integrated industrial chain for capacitors, with growing demand from data centers and energy storage, leading to optimized cost structures and new profit growth points [4]. Group 5: Emerging Business Ventures - Dongyangguang is constructing a liquid cooling ecosystem through capital operations, forming joint ventures and partnerships to enhance its competitive advantage across the entire industry chain [5]. - The company has entered the smart robotics field, with initial orders reaching 70 million yuan and plans to achieve an annual production capacity of over 10,000 units within five years [5]. Group 6: Industry Outlook - Industry insiders believe that the fluorochemical sector has entered a high prosperity cycle, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and policy backing, with leading companies expected to continue expanding market share and enhancing profitability through technological advancements and diversified strategies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [6] Core Views - The agricultural chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in market conditions, with prices for glyphosate and paraquat increasing. Glyphosate prices reached 25,501 CNY/ton, up 200 CNY/ton from the previous week, with a gross profit of 2,772.4 CNY/ton, an increase of 132.2 CNY/ton [5][20] - The demand for agricultural chemicals is expected to remain strong, particularly if major players like Monsanto exit the market, which could lead to supply shocks for glyphosate and related products [5] - The fluorochemical sector is seeing price increases for R32 refrigerant due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with R32 priced at 53,500 CNY/ton, up 500 CNY/ton from the previous week [4][31] Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Prices for key monitored products such as vitamin B1 (up 12.82%) and vitamin D3 (up 7.14%) saw significant weekly increases, while hydrochloric acid (-8.29%) and isobutylene (-7.98%) experienced notable declines [15] (2) Polyurethane: MDI Prices Down, TDI Prices Up - MDI prices decreased due to weak domestic demand and external market conditions, with average prices for polymer MDI at 14,850 CNY/ton (down 0.67%) and pure MDI at 16,450 CNY/ton (down 0.9%). In contrast, TDI prices increased to 12,650 CNY/ton (up 2.85%) [18] (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate, Urea, and Potassium Chloride Prices Up - Glyphosate prices increased to 25,501 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 11,000 tons and a decrease in inventory to 34,100 tons. Urea and potassium chloride also saw price increases, with urea priced at 1,816 CNY/ton (up 0.94%) and potassium chloride at 3,339 CNY/ton (up 3.53%) [20][27] (4) Fluorochemicals: R32 Refrigerant Price Increase - The price of R32 refrigerant rose to 53,500 CNY/ton due to increased demand from the air conditioning sector and supply constraints. The prices of upstream materials like fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid remained stable [31]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250711 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.氟化工企业业绩预增，行业景气度有望维持——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 2.从定价模式和资本流动看人民币——人民币汇率专题深度研究 ➢ 3.乐鑫科技（688018）:AIOT长尾市场高速增长，规模效益显著利润增厚——公司简评报 告 ➢ 4.零碳转型启新章，关注风储领域破局机遇-电力设备与新能源行业2025中期投资策略 ➢ 1.国家发改委城市和小城镇改革发展中心：加大新型城镇化重点领域投入 ➢ 2.北京市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Dongyangguang (600673.SH) has reported an impressive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, with net profit expected to reach between 583 million to 663 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 157.48% to 192.81% [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Dongyangguang's traditional business segment continues to perform strongly, benefiting from the rising demand and prices for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2][3] - The company’s new business segments, particularly in liquid cooling for intelligent computing centers and humanoid robots, have begun to show significant results, contributing to a remarkable turnaround from losses to rapid growth [2][5] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a joint venture with Zhongji Xuchuang to create a comprehensive ecosystem from technology development to market promotion in the liquid cooling sector [3][4] - Dongyangguang has also invested 90 million yuan in Zonghui Xinguang Semiconductor Technology Co., acquiring a 2.575% stake to enhance its capabilities in data center liquid cooling solutions [4][6] Group 3: Emerging Technologies - The liquid cooling technology is becoming essential due to the increasing power consumption of AI chips, with the Chinese liquid cooling server market expected to grow significantly, reaching 1.26 billion USD in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 98.3% [3][6] - The humanoid robot business has achieved commercial success, with initial revenue generated in the first half of 2025, indicating a new growth trajectory for the company [5][6] Group 4: Long-term Strategy - Dongyangguang has launched an employee stock ownership plan to enhance employee engagement and retention, which is expected to support the company's long-term strategic goals [6][7] - The company's diversified approach in intelligent computing and humanoid robotics, combined with the recovery of traditional business, positions it well for sustained growth amid industry changes [6][7]

Key Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "stagflation" risk in the US economy, with the first quarter of 2025 showing a contraction in GDP of -0.5%, indicating a technical recession, while core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.5% [9] - The approval of the first stablecoin license for a Chinese brokerage firm signals a shift in regulatory stance towards stablecoins, emphasizing their strategic value for cross-border payments [9][8] - Xiaomi's YU7 model has seen overwhelming demand, with over 289,000 orders within an hour of launch, raising concerns about production capacity and potential legal risks in secondary markets [9][8] Industry Analysis Fluorochemicals - The quota system driven by policy has led to a rigid freeze on the production capacity of third-generation refrigerants, accelerating the exit of smaller players and allowing leading companies to gain pricing power, pushing refrigerant prices upward [17] - The supply of fluorite resources is constrained due to low extraction ratios and stricter environmental policies, further solidifying cost support [17] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a phase of adjustment, primarily influenced by emotional factors and trading dynamics, with valuations returning to near five-year lows, presenting an entry opportunity for investors [18] - The export transaction volume of domestic innovative drugs reached $45.5 billion from January to May 2025, contributing positively to profits [18] Semiconductors - The semiconductor market is witnessing a recovery in risk appetite, with the AI industry chain potentially becoming a focal point again [18] - External technological restrictions and geopolitical risks are driving the localization of supply chains, with increasing domestic production rates for semiconductor equipment and materials [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance operational quality and profitability through the "Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement Return" action plan for 2024 and 2025, responding to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's initiative to protect investor interests and boost confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance and Strategy - The company focuses on its four main business segments: fluorocarbon chemicals, fluorine-containing polymer materials, fluorine-containing fine chemicals, and chemical raw materials, achieving a revenue of 4.605 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.42% [2][3]. - Domestic sales showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.988 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.30% year-on-year, increasing its share of total revenue from 60.97% in 2023 to 67.30% in 2024 [3]. - The company successfully raised 1.736 billion yuan through a targeted stock issuance, which will support the construction of a new energy materials industrial park [2][3]. Group 2: Innovation and Development - The company is committed to product iteration and upgrading, focusing on the development of second and third-generation refrigerants and accelerating the innovation of fourth-generation refrigerants [4]. - A total of 17 new patents were added in 2024, including 3 invention patents and 14 utility model patents, enhancing the company's technological capabilities [5]. - The company has established a research and development system that integrates various research institutes to improve innovation efficiency and protect intellectual property [5]. Group 3: Investor Relations and Communication - The company emphasizes high-quality information disclosure, having published 6 regular reports and 122 temporary announcements in 2024, and has received an "A" rating for information disclosure from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for two consecutive years [6][7]. - A cash dividend of 57 million yuan was distributed to shareholders in 2024, with a planned increase to 117 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 105.82% [5][6]. Group 4: Corporate Governance - The company is enhancing its internal governance structure and compliance awareness, conducting training for board members and senior management to improve operational efficiency [8][9]. - An employee stock ownership plan was implemented, covering 388 employees and aligning their interests with those of the company and shareholders [9][10].

制冷剂行业延续高景气 氟化工行业月报 证券分析师：张晶磊 执业证书编号：S0630524090001 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系方式：zjlei@longone.com.cn 2025年6月11日 | | | 一、核心观点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 二、制冷剂跟踪 三、含氟聚合物 四、行业要闻 五、投资建议 六、风险提示 核心观点 ● 风险提示：制冷剂配额政策变化的风险；原材料价格变化的风险；需求不及预期的风险。 3 ● 2 0 2 5年5月三代制冷剂价格上行，含氟聚合物价格波动。截至2025年5月30日，根据百川盈孚数据，三代制冷剂R32、R125、R134a产品价 格分别为51000元/吨、45500元/吨和48500元/吨，较4月底分别上涨4.08%、1.11%、2.11%。 R22价格为36000元/吨，较上月保持稳定， 较2024年5月30日上涨24.14%；含氟聚合物价格回升后出现波动，截至2025年5月30日，我国 ...

化工板块表现活跃，草甘膦、氟化工、环氧丙烷等板块涨幅居前， "制冷剂双雄"三美股份、巨化股份 盘中股价均创历史新高 。另外，港口航运、煤炭、油气开采、民爆等板块也上涨。 上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.06%，深证成指下跌0.18%，创业板指下跌0.48%。 | | | | 康生化 融 300804 | 48.30 | 7.76% | 13.3亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联化科技 融 002250 | 12.86 | 7.44% | 117亿 | | 7天5板 | | | | | 美邦股份 605033 | 20.89 | 6.42% | 28.2亿 | | 丰山集团 603810 | 16.91 | 5.89% | 27.9亿 | | 利尔化学 融 002258 | 11.88 | 4.95% | 94.9 Z | 近两日新消费行情回调，其他板块迎来机会。昨天大科技反弹， 今天上午，轮到周期股表现 。 具体看，有色金属板块涨幅居前，贵金属、锌、铅等板块大涨。随着投资者对贵金属避险属性的需求从 黄金扩展到白银，白银期货价格最近走强。白银概念股上午表现突出，兴业银锡、盛达资源等个股 ...

Market Overview - Recent market trends indicate a pullback in the new consumption sector, creating opportunities in other sectors, particularly in cyclical stocks [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown significant gains, with precious metals, zinc, and lead experiencing notable increases [1] - Silver futures prices have strengthened as investor demand for precious metals has expanded from gold to silver, leading to strong performances from silver-related stocks [1] Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector has been active, with notable gains in glyphosate, fluorochemicals, and epoxy propylene, among others [1] - Key stocks such as Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. reached historical highs during trading [2][1] Refrigerant Price Trends - The price of third-generation refrigerants has been on the rise, with the average domestic price of R32 refrigerant reaching 51,000 yuan per ton, marking a 19% increase this year and a 42% year-on-year growth [4] - Analysts attribute the price increase to seasonal demand driven by high summer temperatures and supply constraints due to quota policies [5] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector has seen a surge, with companies like Haitian Pharmaceutical, Xiamen Tungsten, and Keheng Co. experiencing significant stock price increases [6] - Recent developments in the solid-state battery industry include advancements in high-nickel precursors and lithium-rich manganese-based precursors by companies like Longpan Technology [7] - The introduction of the "full solid-state battery" definition by the China Automotive Engineering Society marks a critical turning point for the solid-state battery industry, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape [8]