证券日报网讯 1月26日，巨化股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司预计2025年度归属于上市公 司股东的净利润为35.40亿元到39.40亿元，与上年同期相比增加15.80亿元到19.80亿元，同比增长80%到 101%。公司2025年第四季度利润环比有所减少，主要系以下因素的综合影响：一是基于谨慎性原则， 公司根据《企业会计准则》及相关会计政策的要求，对全资子公司衢州巨化锦纶有限责任公司己内酰胺 等部分长期亏损且未来盈利能力存在重大不确定性的生产装置进行了审慎评估，并相应计提了资产减值 准备（详见《公司董事会九届二十三次会议决议公告》）。此项会计处理是基于资产当前状况及未来经 济利益的评估，遵循了会计准则的谨慎性要求，虽对当期利润造成一次性影响，但有利于公司资产质量 的夯实和未来财务表现的健康发展。二是受第四季度下游市场需求阶段性波动及行业季节性因素影响， 公司二代制冷剂产品F22、石化材料、基础化工产品价格环比下降，导致该部分产品的盈利贡献相应减 少。公司管理层始终致力于提升主营业务的核心竞争力和抗风险能力。目前，公司生产经营活动一切正 常，三代制冷剂主要产品价格稳中有升，战略发展项目稳步推进。未来， ...

Summary of Dongyue Group Conference Call Company Overview - Dongyue Group is a leading enterprise in the domestic fluorosilicone industry, established in 1987, focusing on new energy, new environmental protection, and new materials [4][13] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman and his son holding a combined 15.4% of shares, and has repurchased 31% of shares from Xinhua Group [2][4] Key Business Segments Refrigerants - The refrigerant industry is entering a long-term upcycle following the national quota freeze in 2024, with a market concentration (CR3) of 65% [2][7] - Dongyue Group holds approximately 32,000 tons of second-generation refrigerant rights and 63,000 tons of third-generation refrigerant rights, significantly contributing to the company's performance [3][9] - Prices for certain refrigerants have risen significantly, with R32 reaching 63,000 CNY/ton and R134 reaching 58,000 CNY/ton, indicating a strong price outlook [8] Organic Silicon - The organic silicon industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%, with demand increasing and no new capacity expected after 2025 due to reduced capital expenditure [2][11] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for apparent consumption of organic silicon from 2008 to 2024 is projected at 11%, with exports growing at 19% [11] Fluoropolymers - Dongyue's fluoropolymer products include PTFE and PVDF, with PTFE maintaining a gross margin of over 20% in high-value applications despite low profitability in low-end markets [12] - PVDF is benefiting from increased demand in energy storage and lithium battery applications, with a potential for price recovery due to improving supply-demand balance [12] Financial Performance and R&D - The company maintains a good cash flow and debt situation, with R&D investment accounting for about 5% of revenue, reflecting a commitment to high-quality development [5][6] Market Dynamics - The third-generation refrigerant market is stable due to the inability to build new production capacity, ensuring existing players are not threatened by new entrants [7] - The second-generation refrigerant market is expected to see price recovery as quotas are reduced, despite a recent price drop [10] Investment Outlook - Dongyue Group is well-positioned in the refrigerant, organic silicon, and fluoropolymer sectors, with a favorable valuation and potential for growth in a long-term upcycle [2][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the price of photovoltaic silicon wafers, indicating a positive trend in the solar energy sector. Additionally, major companies such as Mitsui Chemicals are consolidating their ethylene businesses, which may enhance operational efficiencies [1][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 7th in overall performance for the week of December 22-26, 2025, with a gain of 4.23%. This performance outpaced the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points [3][20]. Key Industry Trends - The report notes a continued divergence in the chemical industry’s prosperity, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5]. Synthetic Biology - The report emphasizes the arrival of a pivotal moment for synthetic biology, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies are expected to face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that leverage green energy and scale advantages are likely to thrive [5]. Refrigerants - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is expected to lead to a high-growth cycle. The supply of second-generation refrigerants is being reduced, while demand remains stable due to market expansions in heat pumps and cold chains [6]. Electronic Specialty Gases - The electronic specialty gas market is characterized by high technical barriers and value addition. The domestic market is facing a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [7][8]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is highlighted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is expected to enhance production efficiency and align with global carbon neutrality goals [8]. COC Polymers - The report discusses the accelerated industrialization of COC/COP materials in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the increasing demand from downstream industries [9]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, alleviating inventory pressures. The report suggests that the market is entering a destocking phase, which could lead to price stabilization [10]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with major players controlling over 90% of global capacity. Despite current price pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive as demand recovers [11].

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Group's stock price has shown a positive trend, reflecting strong market conditions for HFCs and related products due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and policy support [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Dongyue Group's stock price increased by 3.13%, reaching HKD 10.55, with a trading volume of HKD 56.77 million [1][5]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The 2026 HCFCs/HFCs enterprise quota has been released, indicating strong continuity in HFCs quota policies, which are expected to maintain robust supply constraints [1][5]. - The high industry concentration and favorable competitive landscape, along with strong demand from household and automotive air conditioning, suggest that HFCs will continue to experience high prosperity [1][5]. - Fluorochemical companies, including those producing PVDF and fluorinated liquids, are likely to benefit from increased demand in downstream sectors such as new energy and AI [1][5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Trends - According to Ping An Securities, the quota for second-generation refrigerants will be further reduced by 2025, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas will be limited year-on-year, indicating constrained supply [1][5]. - The demand side is expected to improve, driven by national subsidies, with sustained growth in downstream household appliances and automotive sectors, leading to an improved supply-demand balance for refrigerants [1][5]. - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in third-generation refrigerant production capacity [1][5].

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a nearly 4% increase in stock price, currently trading at 10.58 HKD with a transaction volume of 56.22 million HKD [1] - The release of 2026 HCFCs/HFCs enterprise quotas indicates a strong continuity in HFCs quota policy, with main products maintaining strong supply constraints [1] - The high industry concentration, favorable competitive landscape, and robust demand from household and automotive air conditioning are expected to support continued high prosperity in HFCs [1] Group 2 - According to Ping An Securities, the quota for second-generation refrigerants will be further reduced by 2025, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas will be limited year-on-year [1] - The supply side is expected to be constrained, while the demand side is projected to grow driven by national subsidies, leading to an improved supply-demand balance in refrigerants [1] - The report suggests focusing on leading enterprises in third-generation refrigerant production due to sustained growth in downstream appliances and automotive demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Group (00189) experienced a nearly 4% increase in stock price, closing at HKD 10.58 with a trading volume of HKD 56.22 million, driven by the announcement of 2026 HCFCs/HFCs enterprise quotas [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The HFCs quota policy shows strong continuity, with mainstream products maintaining robust supply constraints [1] - High industry concentration and favorable competitive landscape, along with solid demand from household and automotive air conditioning, are expected to sustain high prosperity in HFCs [1] Group 2: Future Projections - According to Ping An Securities, the quota for second-generation refrigerants will be further reduced by 2025, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas will be limited year-on-year [1] - Supply-side constraints are expected to be definitive, while demand is projected to improve driven by national subsidies, with continued growth in downstream appliances and automotive sectors [1] - The supply-demand balance for refrigerants is improving, suggesting a focus on leading enterprises in third-generation refrigerant production capacity [1]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector showed a weekly performance ranking of 5th with a change of 2.58% from December 15 to December 19, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.55 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 4.83 percentage points [1] Key Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with a shift towards green energy solutions and integrated advantages to reduce costs [2] - Companies like Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio are highlighted as leaders in the synthetic biology sector [1] Refrigerants - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle starting in 2024, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow due to the development of heat pumps and the cold chain market [2] - Companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. are positioned to benefit from this trend [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical for the electronics industry, with high technical barriers and added value. The domestic market is facing a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity [2] - Companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are expected to capitalize on the domestic substitution opportunities [2] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the olefin industry is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This shift is characterized by lower carbon emissions and energy consumption [3] - Satellite Chemical is recommended for investment in the light hydrocarbon chemical sector [3] COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the shift of downstream industries to domestic sources [4] - Akolai is identified as a key player in the COC polymer production segment [4] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply constraints due to Canpotex withdrawing new quotes and Nutrien announcing production cuts [5] - Companies like Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Cangge Mining are noted as leading firms in the potash sector [5] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily increasing due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The supply structure is expected to improve as major producers like Wanhua Chemical and BASF maintain significant market shares [6] - Wanhua Chemical is highlighted as a key company to watch in the polyurethane sector [6] Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included SBS (4.52%), PTA (3.04%), and others, while the largest decreases were seen in nitric acid (-14.29%) and sulfur (-5.06%) [6] Supply Side Tracking - A total of 168 chemical enterprises had their production capacities affected this week, with 6 new repairs and 3 restarts reported [7]

Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle in 2025, with both investment in cyclical sectors and thematic trends progressing simultaneously. Since Q3 2025, global manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, but demand growth is slowing, leading to a decline in the PPI of chemical products year-on-year [1][65] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, while sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow significantly. Retail sales are stabilizing, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies [1][65] - On the supply side, China has become a global leader in the chemical industry, while the manufacturing and chemical production capacity utilization rates in the EU have been declining, particularly in Germany, where the production of basic chemicals has been continuously decreasing [1][65] Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged bottoming phase, with a three-year duration already observed. The potential for a turnaround may be approaching [1][65] - The PPI of chemical products has been under pressure, with year-on-year declines noted in major economies, including China, the EU, and Japan [9][74] - The domestic chemical industry is facing a situation of excess supply, which is exerting short-term pressure on prices, while the inventory cycle is still in a passive replenishment phase [1][65] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, with significant declines in new construction and sales figures. The cumulative sales area of new commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 11% year-on-year [18][25] - Sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [25][28] - Retail sales in China have shown a steady improvement, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, supported by consumption promotion initiatives [28][29] Group 3: Supply Side Analysis - China has replaced Europe and the US as the global leader in chemical production, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in output, while the EU and Germany have seen declines [30][36] - The production capacity in the EU has been declining, particularly in Germany, where the output of various basic chemicals has dropped significantly compared to 2019 levels [36][37] - The investment in basic chemical projects in China has turned negative, indicating a potential shift in the supply landscape as excess capacity begins to face clearing risks [1][65] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation leading companies and sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, including major players in the chemical industry such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [3][67] - The fertilizer sector is expected to benefit from slowing capacity growth and increasing overseas demand, which may support price increases [66] - The tire market is showing signs of recovery, with domestic leading companies expanding their global production bases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [66]

Core Viewpoint - The total quota for the third-generation refrigerants in China is set at 802,000 tons for 2026, reflecting an increase of 3,050 tons compared to 2025, with no new allocations for mainstream types such as R32, R125, and R134a, which can only gain increments through quota conversion [1] Industry Overview - The third-generation refrigerant industry is highly concentrated, with the top six companies controlling over 90% of the market share [1] - Supply-side constraints for third-generation refrigerants are expected to persist into 2026, with potential tightening of supply for R32, R134a, and R125 [1] Demand Drivers - Strong demand is driven by the growth in new energy vehicles, air conditioning, and foreign trade, leading to a sustained increase in industry prosperity [1] - The dual opportunities from rising prices of third-generation refrigerants and the iteration of fourth-generation technologies are highlighted as key areas for investment [1] Investment Focus - Emphasis is placed on focusing on industry leaders with advanced patents and capacity layouts [1] - Companies related to third-generation refrigerants are expected to benefit significantly from the current market dynamics [1]

Market Overview - Major indices in China opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34%, Shenzhen Component down 0.85%, and ChiNext down 1.17% [1] - The CPO, export tax refund, and fiberglass sectors experienced significant declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3857.26, down 0.34%, with 367 gainers and 1669 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13112.61, down 0.85%, with 353 gainers and 2311 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3138.66, down 1.17%, with 146 gainers and 1168 losers [2] US Market Performance - US stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down nearly 2% as investors withdrew from AI-related stocks [3] - Dow Jones: 47,885.97, down 0.47%; S&P 500: 6,721.43, down 1.16%; Nasdaq: 22,693.32, down 1.81% [3] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Alibaba down 1.47% and JD down 0.87% [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights that the supply-side constraints for third-generation refrigerants will continue until 2026, with strong demand driven by new energy vehicles and air conditioning [4] - CICC forecasts that the Chinese liquor industry will see improved financial statements by 2026, with a gradual recovery in demand and reduced inventory risks [5] - CITIC Jinpu predicts that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for server liquid cooling, benefiting domestic manufacturers as new solutions are introduced [6] - Zhao Shang Securities notes that the explosive demand for energy storage will drive the lithium battery equipment sector into a new growth cycle [7][8] - Huaxi Securities anticipates that pro-natalist policies will continue to emerge, benefiting the maternal and infant consumer goods market [9] - Huatai Securities states that the approval of L3 autonomous driving will accelerate the restructuring of the smart driving industry chain, with significant investment opportunities in key areas [10]