本报讯 （记者毛艺融）2026年1月5日，高盛宏观研究团队发表题为《探索新动能》的2026年中国经济 展望。 其次，中国在稀土和其他关键矿产领域占据主导地位。 最后，高科技出口增长存在上行潜力，这既有政策推动的作用，也得益于全球人工智能产业链相关的资 本支出周期。 消费方面，近期政策公告显示，消费品以旧换新"国补"计划将在2026年延续。考虑到政策支持方向与潜 在的结构性上行空间，高盛认为，服务消费增速将超过商品消费增速。 受地方政府融资限制以及针对部分行业产能过剩的"反内卷"政策的影响，2025年下半年投资增速放缓。 鉴于政策强调2026年"推动投资止跌回稳"，高盛预计，固定资本形成总额增速将从2025年的1.5%反弹至 2026年的3.5%。 高盛宏观研究团队看好中国出口前景。高盛预计，中国实际出口量增速在2025年达到约8%之后，2026 年将增长5%。高盛预计，2026年名义出口增速（以美元计价）将保持在5.6%的稳健水平，2025年为 5.5%。虽然2026年中国的货物出口量增速可能小幅放缓，但仍应保持在约5%的强劲水平。 高盛认为，中国出口的韧性来自三方面的因素。 首先，中国对新兴市场经济体出口的 ...

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for Macau in Q3 2025 is reported at 103.86 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year real growth of 8.0%, with the overall economic scale recovering to 92.6% of the same period in 2019 [1] - For the first three quarters of this year, Macau's GDP stands at 301.33 billion MOP, showing a year-on-year real growth of 4.2%, with the economic total recovering to 88.4% of the same period in 2019 [2] Tourism and Service Sector - The increase in visitor arrivals to Macau during the summer tourism peak contributed to a significant rise in service exports, which grew by 10.5% year-on-year, driven by a 13.6% increase in visitor numbers [1] - Specific service exports such as other tourism services and gaming services increased by 7.4% and 14.3% respectively [1] Domestic Consumption - Local private consumption remained robust, with government final consumption expenditure and private consumption expenditure rising by 2.7% and 0.8% year-on-year respectively [1] - In contrast, fixed capital formation saw a decline of 26.1% due to a reduction in private and public construction projects [1] Trade Performance - Merchandise exports in Q3 increased by 4.5% year-on-year, while merchandise imports experienced a decline of 6.5% [1] - The overall price change measured by the GDP implicit price index decreased by 1.1% [2]