2026 年美国关税政策对中国经济的影响如何？ 2026 年，美国的重心将转向内政，关税的影响将逐渐淡去。尽管过去几年中 美贸易摩擦对中国出口产生了一定影响，但实际情况显示这种影响被高估了。 2025 年的出口增速保持在约 5%，远好于预期中的负增长。这主要是因为全球 制造业周期处于上行阶段，以及美国从 2024 年下半年开始进入补库存阶段， 这些因素共同支撑了中国的出口。此外，特朗普政府在应对中期选举时，将财 政政策资源更多聚焦于 2026 至 2028 年，这也将对经济增长产生积极作用。 因此，预计 2026 年的外部环境相对有利，中国出口将在三重优势加持下继续 顺利发展。 房地产市场在未来一年会如何影响中国经济？ 观开门红电话会议：内外兼修——中国经济展望 20260106 摘要 中国 2026 年出口预计受益于全球制造业周期上行、美国补库存以及特 朗普政府财政政策，增速保持在约 5%，外部环境相对有利。 房地产市场对工业经济的拖累将减弱，但对居民消费的影响仍需警惕。 服务消费将接棒房地产成为新的增长点，成为中国经济的重要支柱。 美国补库存周期预计持续到 2026 年上半年，美联储降息将带动全球工 业生 ...

本报讯 （记者毛艺融）2026年1月5日，高盛宏观研究团队发表题为《探索新动能》的2026年中国经济 展望。 其次，中国在稀土和其他关键矿产领域占据主导地位。 最后，高科技出口增长存在上行潜力，这既有政策推动的作用，也得益于全球人工智能产业链相关的资 本支出周期。 消费方面，近期政策公告显示，消费品以旧换新"国补"计划将在2026年延续。考虑到政策支持方向与潜 在的结构性上行空间，高盛认为，服务消费增速将超过商品消费增速。 受地方政府融资限制以及针对部分行业产能过剩的"反内卷"政策的影响，2025年下半年投资增速放缓。 鉴于政策强调2026年"推动投资止跌回稳"，高盛预计，固定资本形成总额增速将从2025年的1.5%反弹至 2026年的3.5%。 高盛宏观研究团队看好中国出口前景。高盛预计，中国实际出口量增速在2025年达到约8%之后，2026 年将增长5%。高盛预计，2026年名义出口增速（以美元计价）将保持在5.6%的稳健水平，2025年为 5.5%。虽然2026年中国的货物出口量增速可能小幅放缓，但仍应保持在约5%的强劲水平。 高盛认为，中国出口的韧性来自三方面的因素。 首先，中国对新兴市场经济体出口的 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 economic outlook for China indicates that challenges are more profound than they appear, with a complex external environment and internal structural adjustments leading to moderate growth [1][3] Global Macro Backdrop - The global economic landscape for 2026 presents various scenarios, with persistent inflation and interest rate pressures, alongside trade constraints impacting growth [1][7] - US-China trade tensions remain a significant external variable, with tariffs increasing and uncertainty affecting bilateral trade and investment [1][13] Internal Policy Adjustments - Since September 2024, China has adopted a "three arrows" approach focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing, with policies adapting to economic data [2][38] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-quality development, prioritizing high-end manufacturing, technological self-sufficiency, and expanding domestic demand [2][40] Economic Performance Projections - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, with contributions from consumption, investment, and net exports, although domestic demand remains weak [2][38] - The recovery across industries is uneven, with high-end manufacturing and new energy vehicles performing well, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [2][38] Trade and External Accounts - Exports show resilience, particularly in high-tech products, and the current account is expected to maintain a surplus, with the RMB fluctuating within a reasonable range [2][38] - The transition to a new economic model is ongoing, with new economic drivers gradually contributing more to growth, despite structural contradictions and short-term pressures [2][38] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 4% of GDP, with ongoing efforts to enhance consumption support and improve fund allocation efficiency [2][38] - Monetary policy is expected to remain prudent, with adjustments to policy rates and reserve requirements to manage liquidity, although net interest margin pressures limit the scope for rate cuts [2][38]

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic momentum faces challenges in the first half of 2026 due to US-China trade tensions, tariff pressures, and weak demand [4] - Economic recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 with monetary and fiscal policy easing, such as the US's "dual easing" and fiscal stimulus in Europe and Japan [4] - Major risks include asynchronous economic and policy cycles across countries, potentially leading to asset price volatility [4] Performance of Major Economies - The US economy relies on AI-related sectors, but short-term productivity gains from AI are limited; tariffs have raised inflation (effective tariff rate at 12.6%), suppressing consumption and investment [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2026 (to 3.25%-3.5%), with gradual improvement in the labor market as the economy rebounds [4] - Europe has inflation nearing the 2% target with neutral monetary policy, while Japan continues normalizing its monetary policy, with rates potentially rising to 1.25% by the end of 2026 [4] Asset Performance - US Treasury yields may dip in the short term but could rise again due to debt pressures; the dollar remains stable, and US stocks (S&P 500 expected to reach 7500 points) and European stocks have upside potential [4] China Economic Outlook Growth Momentum - China's GDP growth is projected at around 5% for 2025, but significant year-on-year pressure is expected in Q4; 2026 GDP is forecasted to decline to 4.5% due to reduced export contributions and slight deceleration in consumption [4] - The outlook for 2027 may improve slightly due to export recovery and narrowing declines in real estate [4] Key Sector Analysis - Real Estate: The down cycle continues with inventory-sales ratios at 25-30 months (normal is 15 months), leading to negative wealth effects from falling prices; policies should focus on lowering mortgage rates, accelerating inventory reduction, and promoting household registration reforms [4] - Consumption: 2025 H1 may see a boost from "trade-in" subsidies, but 2026 faces pressures from moderate income growth and negative wealth effects from housing prices; social security reforms are needed to enhance consumer confidence [4] - Investment: Manufacturing and infrastructure investments may have overshot in H2 2025; a slight recovery is expected in 2026, but growth will remain in low single digits [4] - Exports: 2025 exports may grow by 5.4%, but exports to the US could drop by 26%; 2026 may see a reversal in US exports while non-US market growth slows [4] Inflation and Exchange Rates - Inflation: Deflationary pressures are easing, with CPI expected to rise from 0% to 0.4% in 2026, and PPI narrowing from -2.7% to below -1% [4] - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to be strong in the short term, with overall stability and two-way fluctuations anticipated in 2026 [4] Policy Expectations - Monetary Policy: A potential 20 basis point rate cut in 2026 (to 1.2%), with limited future space due to the need to balance bank interest margins [4] - Fiscal Policy: Broad fiscal impulse around 1 percentage point, focusing on special bonds and policy financial tools [4] - Credit: Social financing growth may decline from 8.4% to 8%, with macro leverage continuing to rise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum held in Shenzhen focuses on the outlook of China's economy and the role of finance in empowering technological innovation and development [1][15]. Group 1: Economic Outlook and Financial Policy - The forum includes a discussion on the "2025 China Economic Outlook" and the release of the "China Financial Policy Report 2025" [1]. - Key figures from the financial sector, including the project execution leader of the report and former chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities, are involved in the discussions [2]. - The event aims to gather insights from leaders, scholars, and industry elites to shape the financial landscape in China [1]. Group 2: Financial Empowerment of Technological Innovation - The second theme of the forum addresses how finance can empower technological innovation and development [15]. - Various experts, including the deputy director of the China Financial 40 Forum and the chairman of the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Guidance Fund, contribute to this discussion [20][18]. - The forum emphasizes the importance of financial support in fostering technological advancements and innovation within the economy [15].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum will be held in Shenzhen from May 17 to 18, focusing on building an open and inclusive economic and financial system, aiming to create a high-level dialogue platform for global government officials, economists, and financial leaders [88]. Group 1: Event Details - The forum will feature over 20 high-level political and economic leaders from both China and abroad, with nearly 100 international heavyweight guests in attendance [3]. - The opening ceremony will take place on May 17 from 9:00 to 11:10 [6]. - Various thematic discussions will be held, including topics such as the challenges of global economic fragmentation and opportunities and challenges in green development [17][26]. Group 2: Thematic Discussions - The first thematic discussion will focus on "Global Economic Fragmentation Challenges," scheduled for May 17 from 15:30 to 16:45 [17]. - Another discussion will address "Opportunities and Challenges in Green Development," occurring on May 17 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [26]. - A session on "Financial Assistance for Cultural and Tourism Industries to Become Pillar Industries" will be held on May 18 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [76].