Federal Budget Deficit Overview - The federal government's budget deficit reached $2 trillion for the current fiscal year, widening by nearly $100 billion from last year [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported a deficit of $1.989 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025, marking a $92 billion increase compared to the same period in fiscal year 2024 [1][12] Federal Spending and Revenue - Federal spending increased by $391 billion, or 5%, from a year ago, while tax receipts rose by $299 billion, or 7%, in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025 [2] - Customs duties collected increased by $95 billion, or 137%, totaling $165 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025 [5] - Individual income tax receipts rose by $181 billion, or 8%, totaling $2.357 trillion so far in fiscal year 2025 [5] Major Spending Drivers - The federal government spent $6.7 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025, with significant increases driven by mandatory spending programs like Social Security and Medicare, as well as rising debt service costs [8] - Social Security payments increased by $111 billion, or 8%, due to higher benefit payments and a growing number of beneficiaries [9] - Medicare spending also rose by 8%, totaling $64 billion higher than the same period last year [9] Interest Expenses and Debt - Interest expenses on the national debt rose by $72 billion, or 8%, contributing to the wider budget deficit [10] - The national debt surpassed $37 trillion, with taxpayers now responsible for over $37 trillion in liabilities [6][10] Monthly Budget Performance - In August, the federal government recorded a $360 billion budget deficit, a decrease of $20 billion from the previous year [11] - The CBO anticipates a final budget deficit of $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025, which would be the third-largest in U.S. history [12]

Core Insights - South Korea's government interest expenditure on national debt has increased significantly from 18.6 trillion KRW (approximately 96.2 billion RMB) in 2020 to 28.2 trillion KRW last year, marking an increase of nearly 10 trillion KRW and a growth rate of 51.4% over four years, with an average annual growth rate of 13% [1] Summary by Category Government Debt Interest Expenditure - Interest expenditure on government debt is projected to exceed 30 trillion KRW this year, with approximately 30 trillion KRW budgeted for treasury bond interest and 660 billion KRW allocated for foreign exchange stabilization fund bond interest [1] - The interest expenditure on treasury bonds has surged from 16.8 trillion KRW in 2020 to 26.8 trillion KRW last year, indicating a rapid increase [1] Fiscal Pressure - The proportion of interest expenditure relative to total government spending has risen from 3.4% in 2020 to 4.4% last year, reflecting increased fiscal pressure [1] - The government faces a significant challenge as a large volume of bonds issued during the pandemic is approaching maturity, with an estimated 94 trillion KRW of treasury bonds maturing this year and increasing to 98 trillion KRW next year [1] Market Impact - Approximately 100 trillion KRW of refinancing bonds are expected to enter the market over the next two years, which may exert downward pressure on bond prices and further increase interest burdens [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal surplus of over $27 billion in June, marking the first surplus in June since 2017, contrasting sharply with a deficit of $316 billion in May [1] - The increase in fiscal revenue, particularly from tariffs, significantly contributed to this surplus, with customs duties totaling approximately $27 billion in June, a 17% increase from May and a staggering 301% increase year-over-year [1][2] - Year-to-date, tariff revenue has reached $113 billion, an 86% increase compared to the same period last year, setting a record for a single fiscal year [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive monthly data, the cumulative deficit for the fiscal year stands at $1.34 trillion, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous year [3] - The net interest expenditure on the national debt reached $84 billion in June, making it the second-largest expenditure item after Social Security, with year-to-date net interest payments totaling $749 billion [3] - Total interest payments for the fiscal year are projected to reach $1.2 trillion, indicating ongoing pressure on U.S. fiscal health due to high national debt yields [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's tariff policies, including a comprehensive 10% tariff on imports and threats of higher tariffs on additional trade partners, have been pivotal in boosting government revenue [2] - The administration's actions have led to a 13% increase in total government revenue year-over-year in June, while expenditures decreased by 7% [2] - The ongoing high-interest burden is a key reason for Trump's push for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate debt servicing costs [4]