日本媒体和专家近日不断批评高市政府的财政政策。《日本经济新闻》高级评论员奥村茂三郎发表 署名文章，警告高市"不要玩火"。 日本政府新财年预算案将于2026年1月提交国会审议。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:焦鹏】 新华社东京12月26日电（记者刘春燕）日本政府26日批准2026财年预算案，预算规模及其中用于偿 还国债及利息的国债费均再创新高，引发市场、媒体和专家的强烈担忧。 据日本财务省公布的文件，高市早苗内阁提出的2026财年（2026年4月至2027年3月）预算规模达 122.3万亿日元（1美元约合156日元），远超2025财年的115.2万亿日元。其中，仅国债费就高达31.3万 亿日元，同样远超上财年的28.2万亿日元。为弥补财政收支缺口，高市内阁拟新发国债29.6万亿日元。 此外，由于老龄化导致医疗、护理、养老金等费用增加，日本2026财年社会保障预算达39.1万亿日 元，同样刷新历史纪录。 日本政府债务余额占国内生产总值比重已达240%。高市内阁推行扩张性财政政策、大肆发债，令 投资者对日本财政状况恶化的忧虑不断加深。自高市早苗就任自民党总裁以来，日本长期国债普遍遭到 抛售，新发国债遇冷，作为长期利率指标的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，日本财务省将在下一财年把用于计算国债利息支出的关键假定利 率设定为3.0%，这是近30年来的最高水平。知情人士称，在2026年4月开始的2026财年中，用于支撑债务 偿付成本的利率将从8月预算申请阶段最初设定的2.6%上调。该水平较当前财年采用的2%大幅提高，将 创下自1997财年以来的最高值，预计将把日本的债务偿付支出推至新的纪录高位。 此举正值市场对日本财政状况以及首相高市早苗采取更为扩张性财政政策立场的持续担忧之际。12月16 日，日本国会批准了2025财年(2025年4月至2026年3月)补充预算案，财政支出规模高达18.3万亿日元，号 称疫情后最大规模。这一预算案以应对物价上涨、促进经济增长为名，其中的11.7万亿日元将通过新发行 国债来筹措。 与此同时，日本政府拟于本周五最终敲定2026财年预算草案。草案显示，该国2026财年年度预算总规模 将首次突破122万亿日元，创下历史新高。支出增长主要受两大因素驱动：一是社会福利成本持续攀升;二 是政府为缓解生活成本上涨对家庭与企业造成的冲击，计划推出新一轮财政支持措施。 日本政府届时还将公布日本国债的发行计划。市场参与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government has passed a supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025, which raises concerns about the country's fiscal health due to increased debt issuance to fund a large-scale economic stimulus plan [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus and Budget - The Japanese cabinet approved an economic stimulus plan amounting to 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD) [1]. - The supplementary budget approved by the National Diet totals 18.3 trillion yen, representing a 31.7% increase from the previous year's supplementary budget of 13.9 trillion yen [1]. - Over 60% of the supplementary budget will be financed through new bond issuance, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal situation and increasing debt repayment risks [1]. Group 2: Debt and Interest Rates - Japan's government debt is approximately 2.5 times its GDP, the highest among major economies [2]. - The yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.975%, the highest level since June 2007, with expectations that it will soon exceed 2% [2]. - Interest payments on Japan's debt are projected to reach about 16.5 trillion yen by 2025, accounting for 1.7% of GDP, which could limit macroeconomic policy space and erode national wealth [2]. Group 3: Future Budget Concerns - The draft budget for fiscal year 2026 is expected to exceed 120 trillion yen, setting a new record for general account expenditures, indicating a trend of fiscal expansion [3]. - The defense budget for 2026 may surpass 9 trillion yen, reflecting Japan's intentions towards re-militarization, which poses risks to regional peace and stability [3]. - A loss of confidence in Japan's economy could lead to significant capital outflows, resulting in increased market volatility [3].

Core Points - Shanxi Province has invested a total of 20.39 billion yuan to improve rural water supply projects, ensuring drinking water safety [1] - The province has allocated 13.18 billion yuan for rural environmental remediation, aiming to eliminate 196 rural black and odorous water bodies under national supervision, with the rural sewage collection and treatment rate increasing to 48.3% [3] - A total of 16.27 billion yuan has been invested in solid waste management, achieving over 98% coverage of rural waste collection and disposal systems [3] - The basic public health service subsidy standard has been raised from 79 yuan to 99 yuan per person, with 113 billion yuan allocated for this purpose [3] - Shanxi has invested 16 billion yuan in the construction of grassroots health facilities and talent training, promoting the concept of "no need to travel for minor illnesses" [3] - Over 27 million people in the province now have basic pension insurance, and over 31.6 million have basic medical insurance [3] - The monthly basic pension for urban and rural residents has increased from 108 yuan to 176 yuan, while the financial subsidy standard for medical insurance has risen from 580 yuan to 700 yuan per person per year [3] - A total of 362 billion yuan has been allocated for assistance to disadvantaged groups, and 26 billion yuan for the development of services for people with disabilities [3] - More than 100 billion yuan has been raised to support employment and entrepreneurship through guaranteed loans and job retention subsidies [3] - The province has invested 67 billion yuan to enhance the elderly care service system, providing high subsidies for over 800,000 seniors aged 80 and above [4] - An investment of 17 billion yuan has been made to achieve full coverage of public childcare institutions in all counties, adding 12,400 childcare spots [4]

Core Insights - The fluctuations in U.S. Treasury bonds are drawing significant attention, particularly with the recent changes in foreign holdings, indicating a complex landscape for U.S. debt [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - As of September 2025, Japan increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $8.9 billion, reaching a total of $1.189 trillion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder [1][2] - In contrast, the UK reduced its holdings by $39.3 billion to $865 billion, while China decreased its holdings by $0.5 billion to $700.5 billion, marking the fifth reduction this year [1][2] Group 2: U.S. Debt Expansion - The total U.S. national debt surpassed $38 trillion as of August 2025, reflecting a rapid increase of $2 trillion within just nine months, driven by aggressive fiscal policies to address economic challenges [1][3] - The reliance on debt has been exacerbated by tax cuts that have reduced fiscal revenue and widened budget deficits, leading to a structural dependency on borrowing [3] Group 3: Implications of Debt Dynamics - The ongoing expansion of U.S. debt, which now exceeds 120% of GDP, poses significant challenges, including increased debt burden and potential limitations on future fiscal policy flexibility [3][4] - The trend of foreign countries reducing their U.S. debt holdings may lead to decreased demand for U.S. Treasuries, resulting in rising yields and increased financing costs for the U.S. government [4] Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - The steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is typically associated with a stronger dollar, driven by market sentiments regarding inflation and economic resilience [5] - Recent market movements, such as gold prices rising above $4,130 per ounce, reflect investor behavior in response to the evolving dynamics of U.S. debt and economic conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, which poses significant challenges and risks to the economy and governance, rather than being merely a numerical concern [1][14]. Financial Implications - The $38 trillion debt translates to approximately 270 trillion RMB, equating to a hidden burden of over $100,000 per American, which is a substantial financial strain on households [3]. - Interest payments alone could reach $14 trillion over the next decade, which is 3.5 times higher than the previous decade, indicating a shift in budget priorities towards interest payments over essential services like education and healthcare [3][9]. Credit Rating and Borrowing Costs - A downgrade in the U.S. credit rating will lead to increased borrowing costs and may deter long-term investors, as the buyer structure of U.S. debt is changing towards more speculative short-term funds [5]. - The presence of entities from places like the Cayman Islands holding U.S. debt raises concerns about liquidity risks, as these short-term players may withdraw quickly if financing conditions tighten [5]. Political Dynamics - The normalization of government shutdowns and political maneuvering has detrimental effects on fiscal governance and market confidence, as both parties use the public as leverage in their political battles [7]. - Recent tax cuts approved by the House exacerbate the fiscal deficit, contrasting with traditional methods of stabilizing finances through tax increases or spending cuts [7]. Fiscal Constraints - Social security, healthcare, and interest payments account for 73% of federal spending, leaving little room for counter-cyclical stimulus or investment expansion, which could lead to difficult choices in times of crisis [9]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 140% by 2030, highlighting the severe implications of current policy choices on future fiscal health [9]. Market Reactions - The lack of transparent economic data due to government shutdowns creates uncertainty in policy-making, leading to a pessimistic outlook among investors and the public [11]. - A significant majority of voters (81%) express concern that the debt impacts future welfare and economic stability, indicating a growing public anxiety about fiscal management [11]. Interest Rate Effects - High interest rates not only increase debt servicing costs but also suppress corporate investment and employment, creating a negative feedback loop that complicates fiscal balance [12]. Conclusion - The most pressing risks stem from the interplay of political dysfunction, speculative debt structures, and rising interest burdens, necessitating systemic reforms to avoid worsening conditions in the coming years [14][16].

Core Insights - The Kenyan Ministry of Finance projects a need to raise 1.55 trillion Kenyan Shillings for the fiscal year 2025/26 to maintain operations and meet debt obligations, which is equivalent to 8% of GDP [1] Summary by Categories Fiscal Deficit and Debt Obligations - Of the total amount needed, 901 billion Kenyan Shillings is allocated to cover the fiscal deficit, while 646.3 billion is designated for repaying maturing domestic and external debts [1] Funding Sources - To address the fiscal deficit, the government plans to source 248.2 billion Kenyan Shillings through external borrowing, accounting for approximately 28% of the deficit funding, and 652.8 billion Kenyan Shillings through internal financing, which represents about 72% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government is expected to increase taxes in the upcoming autumn budget on November 26 due to worse-than-expected public sector borrowing data from August [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Public Sector Borrowing - In August, public sector borrowing reached £18 billion, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of £12.5 billion and the general expert prediction of £13.5 billion [1]

Core Insights - The Kenyan government budget execution review report for the fiscal year 2024/25 indicates a total debt repayment amount of 10.5 trillion shillings, driven by a surge in short-term treasury bills [1] - Interest repayments account for 6.323 trillion shillings, while principal repayments are only 3.601 trillion shillings, highlighting a reliance on short-term domestic borrowing to cover budget deficits [1] - The report warns of increasing refinancing risks due to the rapid growth of national debt, primarily attributed to high interest costs on treasury bills [1] Debt Dynamics - External debt is projected to grow by 4% to 5.4 trillion shillings, while domestic debt has surged by 17% to 6.33 trillion shillings [1] - Debt repayments are expected to consume 55.5% of fiscal revenue, significantly exceeding the IMF's recommended threshold of 30% [1] - The heavy debt burden is constraining fiscal space for development and essential public services [1]

Group 1 - The Vietnamese Ministry of Finance reported a significant decrease in public debt as a percentage of GDP, dropping from 55.9% in 2020 to 34% in 2024 [1] - Government debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 31.8% in 2024, down from 49.9% in 2020, while government-guaranteed debt will decrease to 2.2% [1] - External debt as a percentage of GDP is also expected to decline from 47.9% in 2020 to 27.9% in 2024, indicating reduced reliance on external loans [1] Group 2 - The government debt service burden relative to national budget revenue is expected to decrease from 21.2% in 2020 to 18.9% in 2024 [1] - There is an increasing trend in the ratio of external debt repayment to the value of goods and services exports, rising from 5.7% in 2020 to 7.8% in 2024, suggesting a need for continued export growth to maintain debt repayment capacity [1] - The National Assembly of Vietnam has set a public debt ceiling not to exceed 60% of GDP, with a warning threshold of 55% [2]